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Jamie Wiebe, Ph.D., Kahlil Philander, Ph.D., Cynthia Lucar, MPPA
      RGC Centre for the Advancement of Best Practices

                        January 29, 2013
          BCLC New Horizons in RG Conference, Vancouver
RG Subcommittee
What are my
How do I     chances of
  win?       winning the
              jackpot?




                How much
                does this
How does          cost?
this work?
   Cost of Play
     Return to player
     Return to house


   Odds of winning
     Chance of winning a prize
To develop a concise, meaningful message
that conveys cost of play and odds of winning
Research                            Focus            Gamblers
     Review                             Groups            Survey
                                           (n=5)            (n=756)

                                       •Male frequent      •59% male
                                                          respondents
                                         •Female
                                         frequent        •79% are aged
Scan of gaming               Xchange       •Male
                                                        45+ 54% are 55+

  information                 Panel      occasional     •74% have some
(eg. brochures, pamphlets)                                 secondary
                                          •Female          education
                                         occasional
                                                        •51% from Lower
                                        •Chinese           Mainland
                                        frequent,
                                       occasional,       •49% rest of BC
                                       male, female
These      return to     92%       of all money
                machines     players                wagered on
                                                        them
On average,                Pay out to    92        Of all total    This amount can vary
                           players       cents     money wagered   greatly during the
                                         of each   on them         short term.
                                         dollar
Over the long              Pay back to   $1.84     Of the sum of   This amount can vary
run,                       players       of min.   money wagered   greatly on any one
                                         bet       on them         play or number of
                                                                   plays
                           Can be                  Of each wager   This amount is based
                           expected to             on them         on the life of the
                           return/payo                             machine, not on a
                           ut/ payback                             single play or playing
                                                                   session.
These        take         8%          of all money
              machines                               wagered on
                                                         them
On average,              Costs the   8 cents of    Of all total     This amount can
                         player      each dollar   money wagered    vary greatly during
                                     that is       on them          the short term.
                                     wagered on
                                     them
Over the                 Can be      16 cents of   Of the sum of    This amount can
long run,                expected    each min.     money wagered    vary greatly on any
                         to          $2 bet        on them          one play or number
                         take/cost                                  of plays
                                                   Of each wager    This amount is
                                                   on them          based on the life of
                                                                    the machine, not on
                                                                    a single play or
                                                                    playing session.
25%      Of Players   win
On average,          .25      Of Plays     Can be expected to
                                           win
Over the long run,   1 in 4   Of Spins
                              Of Wagers
   No interest in Casino’s advantage
    ◦ Showing the casino share and the player share simultaneously is also confusing

   Payout was confused with Cashout
    ◦ “Isn’t payout the amount paid to the last person who used the machine?”
    ◦ The term payout is not recommended


   Confusion with Mark-up cost
    ◦ “Isn’t that the amount they need to run the place?”


   Confusion with Cost of play
    ◦ “Cost of play is how much you are betting”
   Cost of play – many thought it meant total out of pocket spending

   Gamblers see the “long-run” in different ways
    ◦   “On average” is much more consistently interpreted than “over the long run”



   Whatever the terms that are used, a deeper explanation of their
    meaning should be made available
    ◦ Very difficult concept to understand


   Once educated they saw the value in it, but its going to require
    customer education
   The BIG Test
   Section A – Phrase preferences
       Directly compare sentence features (small parts of phrases)

   Section B – Player education
       Inform players how machines work – Long-run nature of payout averages

   Section C – Sentence preferences
       Ranking full sentences in order of preference

   Half get A, B, C, half get C, B, A
Total money lost    Machine house       Likelihood of         25% of plays win    1 in 4 of plays win
                    advantage           winning the largest
                                        jackpot
Machine house       Machine return to   Likelihood of         25% of wagers win   1 in 4 of wagers
advantage           play                winning free games                        win
Machine pay back    Machine pay back    Likelihood of         25% of spins win    1 in 4 of spins win
                                        winning every
                                        different type of
                                        prize
Machine return to   Machine house       Likelihood of
player              edge                winning any prize
Machine house
edge
   Phrases in the conjoint analysis are broken down by their
    components:
    ◦ E.g. “On average, these machines pay back 90% of all money
      wagered on them”
       Red describes whether the sentence includes “on average” or not
       Blue describes whether the sentence uses “pay back” or “return to player”
       Green describes whether the sentence uses percentages or odds ratios
Now, please rank the following from being the easiest to understand to the most
difficult to understand in terms of communicating what the cost of play is for a slot
machine.
     25% of plays win                         1 in 4 plays win
     25% of wagers win                        1 in 4 wagers win
     25% of spins win                         1 in 4 spins win
     On average, 25% of plays win             On average, 1 in 4 plays win
     On average, 25% of wagers win            On average, 1 in 4 wagers win
     On average, 25% of spins win             On average, 1 in 4 spins win
     The chance of winning is 25%             The chance of winning is 1 in 4
     The odds of winning is 25%               The odds of winning are 1 in 4
     The probability of winning is 25%        The probability of winning is 1 in 4
OR
Feature         %    Example:
Spins           43   1 in 4 spins win
No difference   32   1 in 4 plays/wagers/spins win
Plays           17   1 in 4 plays win
Wagers          7    1 in 4 wagers win
   The most preferred is odds of any prize

   The second is tied, largest jackpot and
    bonus feature

   Last is all prizes
On average

      This amount can vary significantly during
      the short-term

   Return to player and Odds of winning
Ratios

      Percentages

   Conditioned to see information presented
    this way.
    ◦ i.e. 9 out of 10 lottery winners gain weight
IN                           OUT
   Cost to player           Cost to Casino      (i.e. House
   Any prize                 Advantage)

   Spins                    All other prizes (i.e. jackpot)
   On average               Plays, wagers
   Ratio                    Over the long run
   Return to player or      Percentages
    payback                  Payout or take
   Odds or chance           Probability
Return to Player
 “On average, these machines
  payback 90% of all money wagered
  on them”

Odds of Winning
 “On average, 1 in 4 spins win any
  prize”
 “The odds of winning any prize are
  1 in 4”
   More aware of information that players want and how to
    communicate it

   Phrasing must consider constraints of the machines
    (e.g. limited space for text)

   More to come………….. Demographics, level of
    gambling involvement, etc.
Jamie Wiebe - Making Sense of Slot Information

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Jamie Wiebe - Making Sense of Slot Information

  • 1. Jamie Wiebe, Ph.D., Kahlil Philander, Ph.D., Cynthia Lucar, MPPA RGC Centre for the Advancement of Best Practices January 29, 2013 BCLC New Horizons in RG Conference, Vancouver
  • 3. What are my How do I chances of win? winning the jackpot? How much does this How does cost? this work?
  • 4. Cost of Play  Return to player  Return to house  Odds of winning  Chance of winning a prize
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. To develop a concise, meaningful message that conveys cost of play and odds of winning
  • 8. Research Focus Gamblers Review Groups Survey (n=5) (n=756) •Male frequent •59% male respondents •Female frequent •79% are aged Scan of gaming Xchange •Male 45+ 54% are 55+ information Panel occasional •74% have some (eg. brochures, pamphlets) secondary •Female education occasional •51% from Lower •Chinese Mainland frequent, occasional, •49% rest of BC male, female
  • 9. These return to 92% of all money machines players wagered on them On average, Pay out to 92 Of all total This amount can vary players cents money wagered greatly during the of each on them short term. dollar Over the long Pay back to $1.84 Of the sum of This amount can vary run, players of min. money wagered greatly on any one bet on them play or number of plays Can be Of each wager This amount is based expected to on them on the life of the return/payo machine, not on a ut/ payback single play or playing session.
  • 10. These take 8% of all money machines wagered on them On average, Costs the 8 cents of Of all total This amount can player each dollar money wagered vary greatly during that is on them the short term. wagered on them Over the Can be 16 cents of Of the sum of This amount can long run, expected each min. money wagered vary greatly on any to $2 bet on them one play or number take/cost of plays Of each wager This amount is on them based on the life of the machine, not on a single play or playing session.
  • 11. 25% Of Players win On average, .25 Of Plays Can be expected to win Over the long run, 1 in 4 Of Spins Of Wagers
  • 12. No interest in Casino’s advantage ◦ Showing the casino share and the player share simultaneously is also confusing  Payout was confused with Cashout ◦ “Isn’t payout the amount paid to the last person who used the machine?” ◦ The term payout is not recommended  Confusion with Mark-up cost ◦ “Isn’t that the amount they need to run the place?”  Confusion with Cost of play ◦ “Cost of play is how much you are betting”
  • 13. Cost of play – many thought it meant total out of pocket spending  Gamblers see the “long-run” in different ways ◦ “On average” is much more consistently interpreted than “over the long run”  Whatever the terms that are used, a deeper explanation of their meaning should be made available ◦ Very difficult concept to understand  Once educated they saw the value in it, but its going to require customer education
  • 14. The BIG Test
  • 15. Section A – Phrase preferences  Directly compare sentence features (small parts of phrases)  Section B – Player education  Inform players how machines work – Long-run nature of payout averages  Section C – Sentence preferences  Ranking full sentences in order of preference  Half get A, B, C, half get C, B, A
  • 16. Total money lost Machine house Likelihood of 25% of plays win 1 in 4 of plays win advantage winning the largest jackpot Machine house Machine return to Likelihood of 25% of wagers win 1 in 4 of wagers advantage play winning free games win Machine pay back Machine pay back Likelihood of 25% of spins win 1 in 4 of spins win winning every different type of prize Machine return to Machine house Likelihood of player edge winning any prize Machine house edge
  • 17. Phrases in the conjoint analysis are broken down by their components: ◦ E.g. “On average, these machines pay back 90% of all money wagered on them”  Red describes whether the sentence includes “on average” or not  Blue describes whether the sentence uses “pay back” or “return to player”  Green describes whether the sentence uses percentages or odds ratios
  • 18. Now, please rank the following from being the easiest to understand to the most difficult to understand in terms of communicating what the cost of play is for a slot machine.  25% of plays win  1 in 4 plays win  25% of wagers win  1 in 4 wagers win  25% of spins win  1 in 4 spins win  On average, 25% of plays win  On average, 1 in 4 plays win  On average, 25% of wagers win  On average, 1 in 4 wagers win  On average, 25% of spins win  On average, 1 in 4 spins win  The chance of winning is 25%  The chance of winning is 1 in 4  The odds of winning is 25%  The odds of winning are 1 in 4  The probability of winning is 25%  The probability of winning is 1 in 4
  • 19.
  • 20. OR
  • 21. Feature % Example: Spins 43 1 in 4 spins win No difference 32 1 in 4 plays/wagers/spins win Plays 17 1 in 4 plays win Wagers 7 1 in 4 wagers win
  • 22. The most preferred is odds of any prize  The second is tied, largest jackpot and bonus feature  Last is all prizes
  • 23. On average This amount can vary significantly during the short-term  Return to player and Odds of winning
  • 24. Ratios Percentages  Conditioned to see information presented this way. ◦ i.e. 9 out of 10 lottery winners gain weight
  • 25. IN OUT  Cost to player  Cost to Casino (i.e. House  Any prize Advantage)  Spins  All other prizes (i.e. jackpot)  On average  Plays, wagers  Ratio  Over the long run  Return to player or  Percentages payback  Payout or take  Odds or chance  Probability
  • 26. Return to Player  “On average, these machines payback 90% of all money wagered on them” Odds of Winning  “On average, 1 in 4 spins win any prize”  “The odds of winning any prize are 1 in 4”
  • 27. More aware of information that players want and how to communicate it  Phrasing must consider constraints of the machines (e.g. limited space for text)  More to come………….. Demographics, level of gambling involvement, etc.