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An Analysis of theWestpac Offer to St. George The Dream Team
Agenda 2
Our Team
Brief Background of the Westpac Offer Consideration Proposal to exchange 1.25 WBC ordinary shares for each SGB ordinary share All-scrip merger A Scheme of Arrangement (“Scheme”) is to be effected subject to SGB shareholders’ vote Senior management team to be drawn from both banks SGB Chairman appointed as Deputy Chairman with two other SGB Directors to join the WBC Board Operating model for the merged entity is to retain all WBC and SGB brands and branches/ATM networks A two-week “Exclusivity Period” to conduct reciprocal due diligence  and negotiate a Merger Implementation Agreement Break fee of $100m is proposed Conditions precedent An Independent Expert’s Report concluding the Scheme SGB shareholders’ vote Court approval and other regulatory rulings and consents
St. George: Current Position in Market Capitalisation Currently 5th Largest 5
Advantages and Disadvantages of Westpac Offer Advantages Be part of the largest market capitalisation in Australian banking history ,[object Object],Cross-selling opportunities in the largest retail and wealth management network in Australia Cooperate with Westpac to tackle intense competition in the regional banking sector  Access to WBC’s resources and expertise  Accretive EPS for SGB SGB  shareholders obtain CGT rollover relief on the all-scrip merger ,[object Object],Disadvantages ,[object Object]
Integration risks involved
 Staff resistance due to job security issues6
Westpac Offer: Risks Considerations Customer Attrition Issue: Existing customers leave SGB resulting in shrinking market share and damaging its reputation Recommendations: Customer relations management  Media publicity management Retain SGB branches and ATM networks to maintain presence Integration Risks   Issues: Concerns over disruptions to operations during the integration process Culture integration issues – SGB “Big enough but small enough” to be customer-focused Recommendations: Appoint transformation advocates from both SGB and WBC Utilise WBC’s market -leading risk management systems 7
Proposed Merged Operations Merged Westpac and St. George Business Model                           Product & Operations Technology Core/Support Opportunities for Growth after merging with WBC Cross-selling to within the wider distribution channel in retail banking segment Extension of wealth management segment More prominent presence in NSW and other states 8
How likely is the proposed model to be successful? Key Features of the Proposed Operating Model Minimises the risk of the large-scale disruption Minimises customer and value leakage Offering a broad range of products  Multi-Brand Strategy ,[object Object]
Better consolidation of products and operations
Easier alignment of business structuresCommon Strategic Framework ,[object Object]
Westpac : “A professional, aspirational bank with a social conscience”
St. George: “A bank with humanity”Distinct Brand Personalities 9
Factors Determining Whether the Merger is Successful  Key Factors Successful When Customers Customer Attrition Rate  Market Share Customer Satisfaction Index Low Increase Maintain or Increase Synergies Realised Cost Synergies Realised Revenue Benefits Realised Funding Benefits Actual Integration Costs Cost to Income Ratio As Expected or Higher As Expected or Higher As Expected or Higher As Expected or Lower Decrease Employees ,[object Object]
Employee Satisfaction IndexMaintain or Decrease Maintain or Increase Shareholders ,[object Object]
Share Price PerformanceIncrease Better 10
Valuation 11
Valuation Summary 12 WBC Offer: 32.46 Current SGB: 26.65
Synergies Total Benefits: $222 million Assumptions: Cost Synergies - 25% of operating expenses (Empirical evidence of 20-30%) Restructuring Costs - 161.5% of cost synergies  (Average of precedent transactions) Funding Benefits - 48% of Deposits and other borrowings at 60 bp (May 2008) Revenue Synergies - 25% of SGB revenue $2.3 billion realised over 10 years. Who Benefits? Both St. George and Westpac 13
Implied Value 14 Implied Value is NEGATIVE considering Synergies
EPS vs. Exchange Ratio Analysis Westpac Offer 15 SGB Current EPS
Next Steps for St. George 16
Alternatives and Impact 17
Alternatives and Impact Renegotiate  SGB renegotiates terms to benefit SGB stakeholders: Higher offer price Retention of key SGB  senior management team SGB final dividend to be declared  to SGB shareholders No break fee of $100m at the moment Confidentiality Agreement WBC’s Potential Reaction: Proceed to renegotiate additional terms taking into consideration of WBC’s maximum offer price Accept Agree on Merger Implementation Agreement WBC Offer is communicated to SGB shareholders and prepare for shareholders’ vote In the mean time, regulatory and government approval processes are underway If SGB shareholders vote in favour of the merger proposition, a Court Approval needs to be obtained Subsequent to the Court Approval, merger becomes official 18
Alternatives and Impact Reject SGB continues to grow organically, however, explore alternative funding  sources WBC’s Potential Reactions: Offer a higher premium to sweeten the merger deal Abandon the merger proposition entirely Hostile takeover  SGB’s Defensive Action: Super-majority shareholder voting Delay SGB appoints experts to perform in-depth reviews of the merger proposition WBC’s Potential Reactions: Further negotiations to convince SGB Board If delay too long, WBC may change the WBC Offer or abandon the merger proposition entirely SGB’s Defensive Action: Negotiate for “SGB Review Period” clause including a Confidentiality Agreement 19
Other Matters Exclusivity Period  Include an exclusivity period of two weeks to conduct reciprocal due diligence and negotiate a Merger Implementation Agreement Break Fee  Exclude the break fee of $100million as proposed by WBC to allow SGB to have more optimal alternatives for consideration 20

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UBS Investment Banking Challenge - Finals

  • 1. An Analysis of theWestpac Offer to St. George The Dream Team
  • 4. Brief Background of the Westpac Offer Consideration Proposal to exchange 1.25 WBC ordinary shares for each SGB ordinary share All-scrip merger A Scheme of Arrangement (“Scheme”) is to be effected subject to SGB shareholders’ vote Senior management team to be drawn from both banks SGB Chairman appointed as Deputy Chairman with two other SGB Directors to join the WBC Board Operating model for the merged entity is to retain all WBC and SGB brands and branches/ATM networks A two-week “Exclusivity Period” to conduct reciprocal due diligence and negotiate a Merger Implementation Agreement Break fee of $100m is proposed Conditions precedent An Independent Expert’s Report concluding the Scheme SGB shareholders’ vote Court approval and other regulatory rulings and consents
  • 5. St. George: Current Position in Market Capitalisation Currently 5th Largest 5
  • 6.
  • 8. Staff resistance due to job security issues6
  • 9. Westpac Offer: Risks Considerations Customer Attrition Issue: Existing customers leave SGB resulting in shrinking market share and damaging its reputation Recommendations: Customer relations management Media publicity management Retain SGB branches and ATM networks to maintain presence Integration Risks Issues: Concerns over disruptions to operations during the integration process Culture integration issues – SGB “Big enough but small enough” to be customer-focused Recommendations: Appoint transformation advocates from both SGB and WBC Utilise WBC’s market -leading risk management systems 7
  • 10. Proposed Merged Operations Merged Westpac and St. George Business Model Product & Operations Technology Core/Support Opportunities for Growth after merging with WBC Cross-selling to within the wider distribution channel in retail banking segment Extension of wealth management segment More prominent presence in NSW and other states 8
  • 11.
  • 12. Better consolidation of products and operations
  • 13.
  • 14. Westpac : “A professional, aspirational bank with a social conscience”
  • 15. St. George: “A bank with humanity”Distinct Brand Personalities 9
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 20. Valuation Summary 12 WBC Offer: 32.46 Current SGB: 26.65
  • 21. Synergies Total Benefits: $222 million Assumptions: Cost Synergies - 25% of operating expenses (Empirical evidence of 20-30%) Restructuring Costs - 161.5% of cost synergies (Average of precedent transactions) Funding Benefits - 48% of Deposits and other borrowings at 60 bp (May 2008) Revenue Synergies - 25% of SGB revenue $2.3 billion realised over 10 years. Who Benefits? Both St. George and Westpac 13
  • 22. Implied Value 14 Implied Value is NEGATIVE considering Synergies
  • 23. EPS vs. Exchange Ratio Analysis Westpac Offer 15 SGB Current EPS
  • 24. Next Steps for St. George 16
  • 26. Alternatives and Impact Renegotiate SGB renegotiates terms to benefit SGB stakeholders: Higher offer price Retention of key SGB senior management team SGB final dividend to be declared to SGB shareholders No break fee of $100m at the moment Confidentiality Agreement WBC’s Potential Reaction: Proceed to renegotiate additional terms taking into consideration of WBC’s maximum offer price Accept Agree on Merger Implementation Agreement WBC Offer is communicated to SGB shareholders and prepare for shareholders’ vote In the mean time, regulatory and government approval processes are underway If SGB shareholders vote in favour of the merger proposition, a Court Approval needs to be obtained Subsequent to the Court Approval, merger becomes official 18
  • 27. Alternatives and Impact Reject SGB continues to grow organically, however, explore alternative funding sources WBC’s Potential Reactions: Offer a higher premium to sweeten the merger deal Abandon the merger proposition entirely Hostile takeover SGB’s Defensive Action: Super-majority shareholder voting Delay SGB appoints experts to perform in-depth reviews of the merger proposition WBC’s Potential Reactions: Further negotiations to convince SGB Board If delay too long, WBC may change the WBC Offer or abandon the merger proposition entirely SGB’s Defensive Action: Negotiate for “SGB Review Period” clause including a Confidentiality Agreement 19
  • 28. Other Matters Exclusivity Period Include an exclusivity period of two weeks to conduct reciprocal due diligence and negotiate a Merger Implementation Agreement Break Fee Exclude the break fee of $100million as proposed by WBC to allow SGB to have more optimal alternatives for consideration 20
  • 29. Key Messages to St. George Shareholder’s WBC Offer Renegotiate the WBC Offer and additional terms with WBC All scrip-merger Scheme of Arrangement Merits of the merger proposition Benefit from cheaper cost of funding using WBC’s AA credit rating Cross-selling opportunities in the largest retail and wealth management network in Australia Outcome of the merger proposition Accretive EPS Retain SGB brand and branch/ATM networks Be part of the largest market capitalisation in Australian banking history 21
  • 31. Other Considerations Potential Bidders for SGB Other Big Four Banks – CBA, NAB and ANZ – may counter-bid the offer to acquire SGB. This will increase the premium that WBC has to offer in order to clinch the deal. CBA Huge cash surplus and high share prices However, facing domestic competition issues NAB Previously a major shareholder in SGB Could make an offer for SGB if it opts to forego overseas expansion However, massive capital investment has been injected overseas ANZ Previously a major shareholder in SGB However, ANZ changed its strategic focus and moved on to expanding in the Asian region 23
  • 32. Other Considerations Government Approval on the Proposed Merger Issues: Possibility of monopoly subsequent to the merger ACCC may view each Australian state as a separate banking market – NSW is the main issue WBC and SGB, combined, will be the largest amongst all the Big Four Banks in Australia The merger would lessen competition in the wealth management sector – possibility of reduced product diversity for consumers The state of Australian banking industry “Four Pillars” policy maintained Impacts on national interests Recommendations: Merger plan, demonstrating the impacts of the merger on various aspects, need government approval Bring in government lobbyists 24
  • 33. Final Recommendation Renegotiate with WBC Offer price Retention of key SGB senior management team SGB final dividend to be declared to SGB shareholders No break fee of $100m at the moment Confidentiality Agreement 25
  • 35. GDP Forecast 27 European Exchange Rate Crisis. Asian Financial Crisis. Global Financial Crisis. Assumption: Lowest GDP could happen is -200% of 2007. Assumption: It follows 1995 and 1996 when the economy falls from the maximum. Assumption: The movement from one year to another year is on a gradual basis to the maximum (120% of 2007) as the economy recovers.

Notas do Editor

  1. Why exclusivity period?Allows both sides to do a proper due diligenceProtects WBC so that no counter-bids, allows fairplay for WBC since this is a friendly SOAQuality outcome from the due diligence – allows WBC to have grounds to offer an X price that WBC think SGB is worth (then, SGB can deliberate. WBC has all the info given to do the due diligence and has no reason to say that SGB has not been cooperative)
  2. http://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/shareholders/pdfs/annual-reports/2007_Concise_Annual_report_final.pdfCBA - $4.1bn cash surplus in 2007