The document discusses the potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare) under President Trump. It outlines three possible scenarios: 1) A "good" radical transformation that creates universal catastrophic coverage similar to Singapore's model. 2) A "neutral" stopgap replacement that carves up Obamacare but doesn't solve long-term issues. 3) An "ugly" repeal without replacement that could collapse private insurance markets and hurt the healthcare sector and economy. The document also analyzes differences between Trump, GOP Congressional leaders, and Senator Rand Paul's plans and who the winners and losers may be under a "TrumpCare" system.
7. ACA Repeal: Healthcare Status Check
Sources: HiddenLevers, Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF 2
-20M newly insured under ACA, mostly from Medicaid.
-ACA, while problematic, is not collapsing as is.
-Skyrocketing Healthcare costs pre-date Obamacare
8. Cease ACA subsidies, using
lower court ruling that they
aren’t authorized.
Give hardship waivers freely or
stop enforcing the individual
mandate.
Healthy buyers leave, forcing
insurers to raise premiums.
Potential collapse of the
insurance market.
ACA Repeal: Trump’s Executive Order
sources: HiddenLevers, NY Times, Washington Post
POTENTIAL ACTION IMPACT
Delay enforcement of business
mandates and taxes.
Fewer insured workers.
Lower cost of doing business.
9. ACA Repeal: What lives?
sources: HiddenLevers, CBPP
• Guaranteed Issue
• Stay on parents plan til 26
• Medicare changes/cuts
• Cuts to indigent care
reimbursements
• Exchange subsidies
• Medicaid expansion
• Capital Gains 3.8% tax
• Medical device tax
• “Cadillac” policy tax?
Difficult to Remove Repeal Likely
GOP has votes to change budget-related parts of ACA, but can’t
increase budget deficit with any changes (Byrd Rule)
11. Trump vs GOP: Key Differences
sources: HiddenLevers, Politico, Business Insider, Business Insider 2
Trump, POTUS
-insurance for everybody
-drug price negotiation
Tom Price, HHS
-No concern for coverage gains
-Kill the individual mandate
-Blind Tax credits for insurance
-No one can be denied coverage
-HSA expansion
GOP Senate (Cassidy + Collins)
Push choice to states
1. Keep Obamacare if you wish
2. Market-based alternative
(fed funding)
3. Go your own way
(no fed funding)
Rand Paul, Libertarian Senator
-Kill individual mandate
-Kill coverage minimums
-5k HSA for every American
-No repeal without replacement
-Small business insurance pools
-2y window for pre-existing conditions
GOP House (Paul Ryan)
-Start with Tom Price old bill
-Fixed 12k credit for Medicare
-No care for universal coverage
12. Trump vs GOP: Obamacare Winners + Losers
sources: HiddenLevers, Axios
older people – limit on premiums
low income insurers
sick people – pre-existing conditions okay healthy people – forced to subsidize sick
young adults – forced to subsidize elders
blue chip insurers – economics don’t work
low income people – expanded Medicaid middle income people – no subsidy + $$$
healthcare providers – patients now insured drug companies + medical device makers
WINNERS LOSERS
13. Trump vs GOP: TrumpCare Winners + Losers
sources: HiddenLevers, Center for Budget + Policy Priorities, CNBC, Axios
young people – no longer subsidizing
insurers – protections on dropped coverage
healthy people – no longer subsidizing sick people – higher premiums
old people – no premium limits (5x young)
healthcare providers – losing customers
middle income people – more choices, less $ low income people – Medicaid reigned in
WINNERS LOSERS
state governors – more control over systems
14. Trump vs GOP: Myth Busting
sources: HiddenLevers, Politico, Washington Post
Trump sees eye-to-eye with
his HHS Secretary
GOP has enough votes to
repeal ACA
Universal coverage is
impossible under Trump
GOP will have replacement
before repeal
15. Trump vs GOP: Singapore = Promising Model
High-deductible health insurance
meant to cover major medical
expenses
Similar to an HSA, but some
contribution is mandatory.
Coupled with price transparency
Backstop funding for the poor, if
they cannot pay medical bills
sources: HiddenLevers, Ministry of Health, Fox News, FreedomWorks
The most transformative GOP plans include ideas to replace ACA
with universal catastrophic insurance + HSAs, like Singapore
19. NEUTRAL: Stopgap replacement
source: HiddenLevers
GOP carves up Obamacare + fills gaps decently
individual
mandate
penalty GONE
can be done
without
bipartisanship
no hard
deadline
GOP internal
gridlock
20. UGLY: Repeal + Run
source: HiddenLevers
GOP cuts Obamacare net with nothing underneath
Medicaid funding
cuts = hospital
closures
collapse of private
insurance markets
contracting
healthcare drags
down economy
21. SCENARIO: TrumpCare
Good:
Radical
Transformation
Bad:
Stopgap
Replacement
Ugly:
Repeal + Run
healthcare
inflation
6%
S&P 500
-12%
healthcare
inflation
3.5%
S&P 500
FLAT
healthcare
inflation
2.7%
S&P 500
+11%
Using catastrophic coverage
+ HSAs for all, GOP could
transform US healthcare,
lowering costs and enabling
other sectors to grow faster.
Limited ACA replacement
measures won’t solve long
term cost or coverage issues,
but also won’t wreck the
market or economy at large.
The healthcare sector would
suffer a major decline in
revenue, with corresponding
job losses, and spillover
impact to the economy.
22. Obamcare RIP – Take Aways
No more
3.8%
Obamacare
surcharge
on
cap gains
Trump can kill individual
mandate + subsidies by
exec order
Repeal + no replacement will
hurt health sector + markets
Too early to call
Obamacare dead