Slides Only, No Notes! For version with Notes, (first half only) see http://www.slideshare.net/heathrezabek/xrisk-101-existential-risk-for-interstellar-advocates-wnotes The full version of a joint presentation at Starship Congress 2013, August 15-18, Dallas TX. First section by Heath Rezabek, second section by Nick Nielsen.

39. …our pale blue dot…
…places Earth in its cosmological context…

40. …astrobiology places life
in a cosmological context…
• “Astrobiology is the study of the origin,
evolution, distribution, and future of life in
the universe.” (NASA)
• “The study of the living universe.” (NASA,
1996)
• “The study of life in space.” (Mix, 2009)
• “Astrobiology… removes the distinction
between life on our planet and life
elsewhere.” (Plaxco and Gross, 2006)

41. The
Fermi
Paradox
The universe is
billions of years
old, friendly to
life, and yet we
find no
evidence of
highly advanced
civilizations.

42. Where are the aliens?
…right here, on Earth!

43. The Great Filter
Multiple hominid
Ancestors and
Predecessor
Species
Multiple post-human
And sucessor
species
The
Present
The Distant Past The Far Future

44. Filters and Risks in Human History

45. What follows our terrestrial
industrial-technological civilization?
Extraterrestrialization places earth-originating
civilization in cosmological context.

47. Available technologies will influence the
structure of the civilization that
transcends each gravitational threshold
• Slow first wave/fast second wave
• Planetary threshold
• Solar threshold
• Galactic threshold
• Multiverse threshold
• Fast first wave/slow second wave
• Planetary threshold
• Solar threshold
• Galactic threshold
• Multiverse threshold

48. Principles of
Existential Risk Mitigation
 Knowledge
 …transforms unknown uncertainties into
quantifiable risks that admit of calculation
and mitigation…
 Redundancy
 …means multiple self-sufficient centers for
Earth-originating intelligent life…
 Autonomy
 …assures independence of each self-sufficient
center to seek its own strategies for survival…

49. Knowledge
• Knightian Risk: prediction, risk, and
uncertainty
• No risk is entirely free of uncertainty
• No uncertainty lies beyond what is possible
in our universe
• Risk is dynamic, and changes over time
• Growth of knowledge moves the boundary
between risk and uncertainty, expanding
risk at the expense of uncertainty.

50. Redundancy
• Knowledge alone is not enough
• Terrestrial single point failure
• Multiple self-sufficient centers for Earth-
originating intelligent life
• Distinct centers of earth-originating life will
be subject to distinct risks and distinct
opportunities
• Distinct centers will be subject to distinct
selection pressures

51. Autonomy
• Knowledge of risks and redundant centers of
earth-originating life together are not enough
• Redundancy without diversity incurs the risk of
homogeneity and monoculture
• Independence of each self-sufficient center to seek
its own strategies of survival
• Social and technological experimentation
• Realization of distinct forms of civilization
• Autonomy may be more difficult to achieve than
we suppose

52. Moral Imperatives of Existential Risk
 Who would object to preventing human
extinction?
 Can we agree on what constitutes human
viability in the long term?
 There are vastly different conceptions of what
constitutes a viable civilization and of what
constitutes the good for civilization
 What is stagnation? Flawed realization?
Ruination?
 What exactly would constitute the “drastic
failure of that life to realise its potential for
desirable development”?
 What is human potential? Does it include
transhumanism?

53. Maximizing the probability
of an ‘OK outcome’
• Different conceptions of human potential
and desirable outcomes will issue in
different ideals, aspirations, and actions
• If we can…
• Continue to increase knowledge
• Establish redundancy
• Assure autonomy
• …there is reason to hope that existential
catastrophe can be avoided and an OK
outcome realized (maxipok rule)

54. the end……not