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Persistent Systems
   A Differentiated Play in IT
Content Index
• Persistent Systems– Investment Snapshot :- Slide #3

• Outsourced Product Development ( OPD ) – An Overview :- Slide #5

•Technology Refreshment Cycle – An Overview :- Slide #11

• Persistent Systems– Business Overview :- Slide #14

• Investment Rationale :- Slide #22

• Persistent Systems – Financials:- Slide #27

• Conclusion :- Slide #31




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Persistent Systems – Investment Snapshot (As on May 18, 2012)
                                               Persistent Systems is a leader in the outsourced product
Recommendation :- BUY                          development (OPD) space where it helps build software
                                               products with services across all phases of the product
Accumulation Range :- 330-350                  lifecycle. There is no comparable listed peer in the Indian
                                               markets and is a differentiated play from other IT firms.
Current Market Price – Rs. 349.85
                                               Persistent has a very strong clientele and works with
Bloomberg / Reuters Code – PSYS IN / PERS.BO   marquee names like Microsoft, IBM and also substantial
                                               part of its earnings (~25%) comes from start-ups which
BSE / NSE Code – 533179 / PERSISTENT           helps it to be ahead of the technology curve.

Mkt Cap (INR BN / USD Mn) – 140.6 / 258.97     OPD market has gained momentum after the economic
[1 USD – Rs. 54.29]                            downturn and the company has seen strong growth for
                                               the past 3 years and is expected to continue going
Total Equity Shares [Mn]– 40                   forward.

Face Value – Rs. 10                             Persistent management has guided a strong growth on
                                               top line of about 24% and also intends to maintain the
52 Week High / Low – Rs. 409 / Rs. 281         PAT at about 140Cr for FY 12 in spite of substantial
                                               increase in tax rates. Company expects the strong
Promoter’s Holding – 38.95%                    demand to continue.

Institutional Holding – 32.98%                 Persistent is trading at wonderful valuations and we feel
                                               that the stock deserves a re-rating considering the quality
                                               of earnings and the strong cash generating potential.

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Key Investment Highlights
Strong Operations– Persistent systems is a well established player in the OPD market and has grown at a fast pace
over its mid-cap peers. It has grown at a CAGR of 29% or 3.5x over FY06-11. Company’s growth rate through the
global recession shows the resilience of the business model. Persistent has a strong domain focus and also at the
fore-front of adopting new technologies. Persistent helps companies architect their products and provides services
covering the entire lifecycle of product development.

Significant Competitive Advantage– Persistent has a strong moat in the form of client’s trust which is a very big
entry barrier for newer players. Persistent has nurtured this relationships over the years and hence been able to
work on important projects of its customers. Persistent has a strong product development culture and a value
focused business model built over the past two decades which is not easy to replicate.

Strong Clientele– Persistent has a very strong clientele of around 300 customers of which nearly 40 customers have
a revenue above 1 Billion $’s. They include marquee names like IBM (Since 2001), Microsoft (1993), Intel (2000),
Oracle(1997) and Salesforce.com . Persistent’s clients on an average spend more than 10% of their top line in R&D
which provides significant scope for customer mining. Growing relationship over the years and over 90% revenue
from repeat customers are witness to the quality of Persistent’s work.

High Quality Management– Persistent has very strong corporate governance processes which can be seen from its
board composition (Quality Independent Directors), CSR activities and the transparency of the company even while
it was private. Company has long term PE investors like Norwest Partners, Gabriel Partners who also bring in rich
start-up contacts.

Attractive Valuation– Persistent systems is trading at wonderful valuations considering its earnings quality and its
differentiated focus. Company is trading at a EV/EBIDTA of 4.4 on FY 13(E) which is cheap for a company which has a
ROCE of over 23%. Persistent deserves a premium when compared with its midcap peers and hence ready for a re-
rating in its price.


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Outsourced Product Development ( OPD )–
               An Overview




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What is OPD ?
• Outsourced Product Development (OPD) refers to the outsourcing of a part of software development to third
party vendors (TPV) by the Independent Software Vendors (ISV) like Microsoft, Oracle etc. OPD is a rapidly
growing segment within outsourced software services and includes all kinds of activities like research, prototyping,
development, testing, documentation deployment, maintenance etc.
                                                 Why OPD ?
• With heightened customer demand and ever increasing demand to cut down product cost and crunch time to market,
ISV’s can remain competitive only by,

     Reducing Product Lifecycle
     Preventing Product from reaching the stage of technology obsolescence
     Building Modular, Tightly integrated product to add on functionality
     Focusing on new competencies.

According to a study, Profitability is directly proportional to crashed time to market, number of release and indirectly
proportional to number of bugs.

 Product Profitability = K *(Shortened Time)*(Number of Release)/ (Number of error)

By Outsourcing Product Development, companies are able to shorten time to market , increase number of releases,
decrease bug. The value K is value factor (expertise) which outsourcing service provider further brings to the table.

ISV’s are able to get scalable delivery, mature project management practices, reduced management bandwidth and
improved reliability.


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Indian ER&D Market




   India’s Engineering R&D outsourcing market is expected to grow at a fast pace and its estimated that by 2020, India can
    capture 40% of the global ER&D spend due to a strong diverse service provider pool, large trained workforce and
    moving up the value chain by Indian Service Providers.
   Persistent Systems focuses mainly on the three verticals of Telecom, Infrastructure & Systems and Life Sciences.



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Phases Of Outsourcing

  1.) Labor Cost Efficiency- To reduce cost

  2.) Process Efficiency- To improve quality

  3.) Design Efficiency- Design for
  manufacturing (DFM)

  4.) Innovation Efficiency- Original Design
  & Manufacturing (ODM)



• Global Outsourcing of product development to TPV’s have grown significantly after the economic downturn
which forced the IPV’s to look for efficient partners who add value to their product development.

• The four phases shown above are the trends seen in outsourcing of product development in Industries like
semi-conductors, automobile and electronics. Software development is probably between the 2 nd & 3rd
phase of evolution and it is expected that within a decade it will reach the matured phase of original design
and hence enable OPD companies to move up the value chain and create huge growth opportunities.



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Disadvantage of Captives
                                                • In a bid to leverage the cost advantages, better access to skills
                                                and for catering to local markets, a number of large captives
                                                have been established in India by major product companies like
                                                IBM, Oracle, Microsoft etc.

                                                • It can be seen from the fig that the size is large enough to
                                                accommodate both the TPV’s and captives. Most of the top 25
                                                clients have a sizeable offshore presence in the form of captives
                                                but still find value with Persistent. Though , majority of the work
                                                is still done by the captives there is a strong case for it to change,

 TVP’s like Persistent with their IP leveraged and process oriented delivery have an advantage over
captives in decreasing the time to market of the product.

 Changing market scenario because of disruptive technologies like cloud computing, mobility, analytics
& collaboration are driving product strategies which the TPV’s are good at.

 Lack of flexibility among captives due to higher overheads as compared to scale advantages of large
TPV’s which enables them significant cost savings.

 TPV’s have a broad based and deep exposure to large number of clients which gives them experience
and knowledge when compared with captives and hence are able to perform effectively.


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IT Service Players                          Vs                 OPD Players

Target Customers : Broad Set of Enterprises like GE               Independent Software Vendors (ISV’s) like Oracle

End Customer: Clients themselves                                  Client’s customers

Value Proposition: Reduces fixed costs and improves               Reduces time to market, Variable costs and adds value
efficiency
Engagement Models:

More Annuity                                                      Less Annuity
based Business                                                     based business but
in maintenance                                                     repeat Business
contracts.                                                         from product
                                                                   upgrades.


Customer Stickiness: Low due to non-core work and the             High stickiness due to involvement of sensitive work
scalability for a new player is relatively easy.                  and presence of high engineering skills & hence
                                                                  difficult for a new player to develop the requisites.

Scope: All Fig     2008   -09    -10    -11   - 12 A   - 13 E     Offshore     2008     -09   -10    -11    -12 A    -13 E
in US $ Bn                                                        R&D/ Prod
                                                                  Develop
IT SVCS Spend      544    541    555    578   606      639        Spend        7.7      8     9      10.7   13       16.1

YoY Growth %       5.4    -0.6   2.6    4.1   4.8      5.4        YoY %        4.1      3.9   12.5   18.9   21.5     23.8
Technology Refresh Cycle– An Overview




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Shifts in Technology
                                                                     • World is rapidly changing with increasing
                                                                     use of APPS across platforms like Ios,
                                                                     Android, Nokia-Windows, Blackberry etc.

                                                                     • There has been a paradigm shift in the
                                                                     business of IT Products market due to the
                                                                     evolution of new technologies and the way
                                                                     the products are deployed to customers.

                                                                     • The world is going through a technology
                                                                     refresh cycle after the global economic
                                                                     downturn and the first refresh cycle after
                                                                     the Y2K boom.

                                                                     • This refresh essentially enables all the
                                                                     companies to upgrade their existing IT
                                                                     systems which run on old technologies to
                                                                     more efficient and better IT in order to
                                                                     drive business growth.

• This refresh cycle creates demand for new IT Products and embrace new technologies which is good for
OPD players like Persistent Systems because of the increased product development.

• Some of the major changes have been the shift from Capex to Opex model and viewing Software as a
Service (SaaS). Last refresh cycle enabled businesses to move to the web platform and this refresh cycle is
driven by the increasing mobility and cloud based services.

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New Technology Trends
   Cloud Computing                Enterprise Mobility               Analytics              Enterprise Collaboration




•Cloud Computing: It encompasses a general shift of computer processing, storage and software delivery away from the
desktop and local servers to next generation common data centers maintained by infrastructure companies like Google, IBM
& Microsoft. Cloud computing offers end-customers the chance to consume services on pay per use basis. It ensures better
resource utilization through resource sharing and lower costs due to economies of scale.

•Enterprise Mobility: With the proliferation of smart phones and advanced mobile devices like IPod's, Tablets etc, there is a
constant demand for new/ upgraded applications running on these devices. Businesses are changing to take advantage of
this large growing space.

•Analytics: Global data has been growing exponentially with the advent of large users entering the web. Hence, there is a
strong need for processing and managing large volumes of data which is driving analytics. Big Data is a new phenomenon.

•Enterprise Collaboration: Collaboration involves designing applications or products that use web as a participation
platform leading to highly active user-centric environment with a lot of user-generated content and interaction amongst its
users. Corporate’s across the globe are latching on to these tools for better productivity.

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Persistent Systems – Business Overview




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Key Highlights
                                                   Differentiated Play with
                                                   Strong Growth Drivers
                                                   Persistent Systems is an end to end
                                                    player in the outsourced product
                                                           development space.

                                                   Company has strong growth drivers
Strong Balance Sheet                                and business demand is buoyant.                  Robust Clientele
 Persistent has a strong balance                                                                Persistent has a robust clientele of
sheet with little debt and enough                                                                 both large marquee names and
  leverage for new investments.                                                                 start-ups to the tune of about 300
                                                                                                    customers with the top 10
 It has done good acquisitions in                     Persistent                                 customers contributing to nearly
the past and can expect this cash                                                                       50% of its revenues.
      to be spent judiciously.                         Systems
             Thought Leadership in                                               Non-Linear Revenues
             Emerging Technologies                                             Persistent has invested and created
               Persistent’s investment in new                                  a large number of IP products which
             emerging technologies like cloud,                                  have higher margins and generate
             mobility, analytics & collaboration                                       non-linear revenues.
            during the slowdown has started to
              yield results with nearly 40% of                                 It is expected to generate more than
             revenue from these technologies.                                     20% from IP led business in FY15



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Product Development Skills




•Persistent is present across the entire value chain of product engineering business and helps clients to build products
efficiently at a low cost in a short period of time.

•Persistent helps web 2.0 companies to architect their products on a scalable and efficient platform. Persistent end to end
services provides clients bandwidth to focus on product ideation and their sales/ distribution.

•Nearly , 40-45% of Persistent’s revenues comes from new technologies like Enterprise mobility, Analytics, Cloud computing
and Enterprise collaboration.

• Persistent Systems recently developed Exploriments Mobile learning Apps for the global Ipad community which shows the
flexibility of the organization and being on top of new trends.

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Focus Verticals & Technologies




Cloud Computing (% of total Revenues: 10 %): Software companies are re-designing their products to operate with high
degree of multi-tenancy. Persistent systems is partnering with leading vendors to enable software companies to migrate
their products to the cloud platform. Persistent helps companies like IBM, Microsoft who sell cloud based products/
platforms to build the requisite infrastructure.

Analytics (10%): Persistent’s expertise of processing and managing large volumes of data through data mining, statistical
techniques and virtualization is used to deliver domain specific insights to customers.

Enterprise Collaboration (15%): Persistent has been working with companies to build products that leverage technologies
across e-mail and messaging, text mining and analytics, social networking and web 2.0. Persistent builds frameworks to
integrate diverse collaboration tools.

Enterprise Mobility (7%): Persistent has been working with handset manufacturers, wireless network equipment
companies to build solutions like enterprise wide mobility platform which helps their clients to come on-board mobile
platforms. Company’s early focus has enabled it to reap rich rewards.
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Selling Models
Time & Expense Model         Fixed Price (FPP) Turnkey    Revenue Sharing/ Risk Reward
(Offshore Development        Projects
Center Model)
Dedicated Teams extend       Clear Requirements and      Complete product ownership
customer engineering.        change management process. for maintenance, road map
                                                         ownership and upgrades.
Onsite team with primary     Initial Onsite presence for Onsite and offshore presence
offshore execution.          requirements phase.         as appropriate.

Flexible ramp-up and         Flexible in on-tap experts   Launching new products
ramp-down suitable for       available on short term      together in new markets, Road
ongoing co-development       assignment. Suitable for     map extensions etc.
and quality analysis. (QA)   performance/ Usability
                             engineering, POC’s, QA
                             automation and fixed
                             requirement projects.

Revenue % : 79.7             11.5                         8.8



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Non- Linear Revenues
                                                               •IP (Intellectual Property) led revenues are non-
     Growth of High Margin IP Business                         linear where there is no co-relation of its growth
25                                                             with manpower growth or expense growth.
20
                                                             •Persistent having a product development
15                                                           culture has invested significant amount of
10                                                           energy and time in building IP based products
                                               % IP in total like connectors and these have high margin of ~
 5                                                           60% which will lead to higher ROE’s.
                                               revenues
 0
                                                               •IP share in overall revenues is consistently
       Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy
                                                               increasing and is expected to touch 20% before
       07 08 09 10 11 12 15                                    2015. These IP’s also help in differentiating
                      (E) (E)                                  Persistent with other TPV’s.
•Persistent has been constantly spending approximately 5% of the technical time of building IP based
products and also investing 5% of its revenue for research.

•Persistent has a “Sell With” strategy where it ties-up with large ISV’s and cross sells its IP’s with the large
customer base of the ISV’s thus creating value. Persistent also helps the customers of ISV’s like
salesforce.com to get on to its cloud platform.

•Persistent has “Sell With” tie-ups with Nokia and Salesforce.com vindicating its strong relationship. It has
also re-selling partnerships where it adds value/ customizes the current product of client and re-sells it.

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Inorganic Growth
Date                  Acquired Company                   Rationale

October, 2005         Control Net                        Domain Based Skills

July, 2007            Metrikus (Certain Assets)          Domain Based Skills

October, 2009         Paxonix (Certain Assets)           Exposure to their brand management
                                                         solutions product
February, 2011        Infospectrum                       Footprint in Europe, New clients, Exposure to
                                                         newer domains like imagery
May, 2011             Agilent Technologies               Increase presence in Life Science’s market
                                                         and geographic expansion in Europe
Feb, 2012             Openwave Systems                   High Growth Location Business

• Persistent’ Management has been pragmatic in spending cash on acquisitions and at the same time has
been active in acquiring good assets which provide either technology skills, expansion to new geography or
new clients.

• Persistent has a very strong balance sheet with nearly 400 Crs of Cash & Equivalents + Net Current Assets.
This cash can be used positively for acquiring good companies thus providing for inorganic growth.


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Strong Clientele
                                                                                     Clients with 5+     > 45%
 Revenue              In %          Client Engagement Size              Nos          years of
 Concentration                                                                       relationship
                                    Large > $3 Mn                       11
 Top 1               16.1           Medium >$1 Mn & < $3 Mn 26                       Repeat              ~ 91%
 Top 5               37.4           Small upto $1 Mn                    314          Business
 Top 10              48.6           Total                               351          % Of Revenues ~25%
                                                                                     from Start-Ups

• Persistent over the years has built strong relationships with its customers and thus established a sense of
trust which will help it to scale the work done for clients and hence grow the clients accounts.

• Persistent’s quality of clients can be seen from all parameters like client diversification, relationship
timeline and the percentage of repeat business.

• Persistent has nearly 40 clients who have a revenue of > 1 Bn $ and spend 10% of their revenue in R&D.
These accounts can be mined strongly to grow the business and we are seeing indications of increased
mining from the inductions seen in Sales & Marketing areas which will help to farm the existing large clients.

• Persistent has increased the > $10 Mn clients from 1 in FY-10 to 5 in FY-12.


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Investment Rationale




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Competitive Advantage
                     Independent Software                        Start -Ups
                     Vendors ( ISV’s)
                                                   Persistent
                Private Equity players             Systems             System Integrators


                       Venture Capitalists                       Research Institutions

•Persistent has a very strong moat in the form of client stickiness which is very important in this business
because of the high level of sensitive work involved. The OPD Provider must have the trust of the client to
move up the value chain and get high engineered work.

•Persistent’s focus on OPD segment for the past two decades has enabled it build a strong relationship with
several players involved in the segment which can be seen in the diagram above. A new player entering the
space can’t build it easily and companies which intend to enter this space will have to make an acquisition of
the existing player.

•Persistent’s work with start-ups help it to be at the forefront of emerging technology trends which help in
building quality IP products which can be leveraged while working with large enterprises.

•The time and energy invested by Persistent in creating IP based products which help in reducing the Time to
Market for developing products in certain focused verticals serve as a moat which is difficult to replicate.

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Strong Volume Growth & Accolades




• Persistent System has seen very strong growth sequentially on the top line with average > 5% growth
(Q0Q) for the past 10 quarters indicating strong demand. Persistent has been growing faster than the
industry at a very healthy pace for the past 5 years.

• Persistent’s management had been able to meet their guidance for FY-12 in spite of tough environment
conditions where almost every IT major missed their guidance or revised them downwards.

• Zinnov Management consulting, a leading globalization advisory firm in its global R&D service provider
ratings for the year 2010-11 has recognized Persistent as one of the leading service provide in two key
“Zinnov Zones” of cloud computing and Software/ ISV R&D which recognizes the work of Persistent.

• Persistent in-line with its strategy of working with large enterprises has recently tied up with Nextel &
Realcom to assist their product development. It has also tied up with IBM on Big Insights. Company is
working several high tech projects like robotics, Instrumentation etc.

•Persistent is a part of 1M/1M initiative which aims at helping 1 million entrepreneurs reach 1 million $
revenue and this provides it a good platform for collaborating with small new age start-ups.
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Concerns
    Margins & Growth in Bottom Line: Bottom line growth lagging the top line growth has been a strong
     concern along with a dip in EBIDTA margin of around 390 bps. There are concerns on margins going
     forward but we still expect the company to maintain a healthy EBDITA of around 20% for next 3 yrs.
    Tax Rate: The big hit on the PAT margins this year came from the increase in tax rate from about 7% in
     Fy-11 to about 30% in Fy-12 due to the withdrawal of tax concessions on software exports. This is not a
     surprise and the management has been guiding it for a long time.
    Small Client Accounts: Another concern has been the small client account in spite of having strong
     clients and the management actions on this can be seen from the appointment of Mr. Hariharan, Mr.
     Ramnath Puranik, Mr. Micheal Kerr, Mr. Bradley Scott and Dr. Jorg Turmhoff over the past 3 years to
     improve the client relations and mine more business and the results have been encouraging.
    Wage Inflation: Wage Inflation has been witnessed by everyone in the Industry and we expect salary
     increments to come in the next 3 months which will have a small effect on margins.
    No Pan- Indian Presence: Persistent is more localized in Pune and is expanding in Nagpur and Goa. We
     expect the company to spread its geographical presence as the company grows.
    Attrition: It has been a very serious concern for the entire industry and Persistent’s salary increments
     will help it in at least maintaining the attrition rate at the current 19%. India with a large base of
     employees will be able to meet the demand arising out of hiring.
    H1 B Visa Issue: Persistent doesn’t have a short term problem as it has enough visa’s but can be a
     problem in the future if the scenario doesn’t change.
    Currency Risk: Foreign exchange change will have an impact on Persistent but over a period time it
     should able to manage the risk by proper hedging.

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Margin Levers




• Persistent has sufficient margin levers to maintain the EBIDTA margins at around 20% in the form of,

 IP based products which have a margin of more than 60% are expected to increase which will enable
better margins. Though IP revenue may be volatile on QoQ basis, it has tremendous potential in long run.

 Employee pyramid is broadening at the base and is expected to have higher utilization over the next few
quarters. This will accrue after the training of fresher's.

 Yield from work will increase gradually in the long term as the company gets more high end work.

 DTC which can be expected to get implemented within the next 2 years will help in getting the tax rate
down by about 200 bps which will directly flow into the bottom line and boost the PAT margin. We are not
considering it in our financial projections.

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Financials




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Earnings Projection
Y/E March ( Rs Cr)    2010      2011     2012       2013 (E)   2014 (E)

Revenue               601.2     776      1006       1158.6     1309.2

EBIDTA                146       158      196        263.8      301.7

Pre-Tax Profit        124       150      195        234.8      268.7

Profit after Tax (PAT) 115      140      141        169.1      196.1

EPS (Rs)              32.1      34.9     35.45      42.26      49.03

Cash Profits          149       182      191        232        264

Free Cash Flow        47        (95.3)   82.4       68.3       119.9

EV/ EBIDTA            7.8       7.2      6.4        4.4        3.7

ROCE (%)              17.5      19.3     23.2       24.3       23.5

ROIC (%)              45.7      34.1     26.6       27.3       30.5

Book Value            178.1     186.8    216.7      239.7      284.2


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Management Quality
Share           June    Mar     Dec       Sep       June         • Persistent is promoted by first
Holding %       2011    2011    2010      2010      2010         generation technocrat entrepreneur
                                                                 Dr. Anand Deshpande who is an active
Promoters 38.95         38.95   38.95     38.89     38.88        member of CII.

FII             2.67    6.28    6.12      6.95      9.40         • It is a professionally run organization
                                                                 with high focus on corporate governance
DII             30.31   26.54   25.99     24.60     21.71        and strong board processes.

                                                                 • More than 29% of its employees are
Notable Investors       Share                                    post-graduates with strong track record.
                        Holding %
                                        • Investors like Intel have been with the company for more than
Norwest Venture         13.51           10 years and the employees are rewarded well with ESOP’s.
Partners (NVP)
                                        •Existing investors holding to the stock for several years speaks
Employees ESOP          8.95            for the quality of the company.
Trust
                                        • Management wants to surpass the guidance given by them
Gabriel Ventures        4.86            and earn investors respect as it is a newly listed company.

Intel Capital           2.29            • Company has been profitable since its inception and has been
                                        doing CSR activities for the past several years.

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Attractive Valuations
                                   Hexaware       Patni           Polaris         Mindtree       Persistent

Top-line growth for past 3         7.99           4.6             13              26.82          18.8
years % CAGR

EBIDTA Margins ( FY 11) %          13.4           16.66           17.1            13.4           27.2

P/E (TTM)                          11.58          10.2            5.4             11.9           10.52

• Since, there are not any pure-play OPD companies in the listed space we are comparing Persistent with the
midcap IT space. It can be seen from the table that Persistent has been quoting at wonderful valuations in
spite of having better parameters than the mid-cap IT space.

• Persistent has a healthy dividend payout ratio of 18% and the stock is currently quoting at a dividend yield
of 2.4% and P/B of 1.15 which is very cheap.

• Mindtree acquired Aztecsoft, a struggling pure play OPD player in 2008 at a valuation of around 360 Cr
which had a top line of 60 Million $ and even posted quarterly losses just before its acquisition.

• Business competitors of Persistent includes the captives of large ISV’s and pure play OPD players which are
held privately like Global Logic which is backed by Sequoia Capital.


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Conclusion




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Price chart




• Persistent Systems came out with an IPO on Mar, 2010 at 310/ share and was subscribed by over 93 times
and the demand was very high in the Qualified Institutional Buyer (QIB) with over 144 times subscription.
The share opened in the market at a price of over 400 Rs.

• It soon went onto touch new highs of over 480 but started to decrease because of the margin pressures
faced by the company and the general market conditions after Nov, 2010.

• After the correction, Persistent is available at wonderful valuations and an Investor can expect to generate
good returns by adding Persistent to his portfolio. Persistent is the best pick in the mid-cap IT space and will
outperform the sector returns.

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Conclusion
  Persistent Systems is a niche IT play on the growing OPD market. The trends are pretty strong and
persistent will continue to grow at a healthy pace considering its strong clientele and thought leadership in
emerging technologies. Moreover, with the increased dependence on Technology across Industries and
disruptive trends is resulting in good business prospects for Persistent Systems.

  OPD growth is expected to be higher than the IT services growth for at least the next three years and
considering the competitive advantage of Persistent, it must be able to seize the opportunities which are
coming along its way in a profitable manner. Persistent Systems benefits from Mobile Revolution, IPAD/
Tablets penetration and huge grow of analytics using data like Social Media including Facebook and Twitter.

  Considering the quality of earnings, niche space, strong management, good clientele and healthy balance
sheet, we feel that the company must trade at a premium to other mid-cap IT players. The company is also
quoting at a valuation discount of more than 45% with the bigger IT players which can be expected to
decrease by at least a few percentage points.

  The company is presently quoting at a forward P/E of 5.89 and considering the earnings growth the
company can easily command a valuation of at least 14 on forward P/E and this re-rating will lead to good
gains on the counter which can be expected in coming months. Moreover the continuous pressure on Rupee
will benefit in expanding its margins further and we may revise estimated based on Rupee movement.

  A Quality company whose ROCE is over 20% is available at around 1X forward Book which is cheap by
any parameters in spite of above average fundamentals and growth prospects. But considering the quality
of the company, it can be held as a long term holding in one’s portfolio. Persistent can deliver consistent
growth and is definitely a blue chip stock in the making.
  “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
Sit back and Relax while your Money
        works Hard for you 
                                   A Fund which is
                                  backed by the Best
                                   Equity Research




A Fund which invests in
 Strong secular growth
companies which will be
                               HBJ Capital Ventures LLP
 the leaders of the Next
      Bull Market !               - Your Partner in Wealth Creation

 For additional Details, Call us - +91-9886736791
THANK YOU




“ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “

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Persistent Systems: A Differentiated Play in IT Outsourcing

  • 1. Persistent Systems A Differentiated Play in IT
  • 2. Content Index • Persistent Systems– Investment Snapshot :- Slide #3 • Outsourced Product Development ( OPD ) – An Overview :- Slide #5 •Technology Refreshment Cycle – An Overview :- Slide #11 • Persistent Systems– Business Overview :- Slide #14 • Investment Rationale :- Slide #22 • Persistent Systems – Financials:- Slide #27 • Conclusion :- Slide #31 “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 3. Persistent Systems – Investment Snapshot (As on May 18, 2012) Persistent Systems is a leader in the outsourced product Recommendation :- BUY development (OPD) space where it helps build software products with services across all phases of the product Accumulation Range :- 330-350 lifecycle. There is no comparable listed peer in the Indian markets and is a differentiated play from other IT firms. Current Market Price – Rs. 349.85 Persistent has a very strong clientele and works with Bloomberg / Reuters Code – PSYS IN / PERS.BO marquee names like Microsoft, IBM and also substantial part of its earnings (~25%) comes from start-ups which BSE / NSE Code – 533179 / PERSISTENT helps it to be ahead of the technology curve. Mkt Cap (INR BN / USD Mn) – 140.6 / 258.97 OPD market has gained momentum after the economic [1 USD – Rs. 54.29] downturn and the company has seen strong growth for the past 3 years and is expected to continue going Total Equity Shares [Mn]– 40 forward. Face Value – Rs. 10 Persistent management has guided a strong growth on top line of about 24% and also intends to maintain the 52 Week High / Low – Rs. 409 / Rs. 281 PAT at about 140Cr for FY 12 in spite of substantial increase in tax rates. Company expects the strong Promoter’s Holding – 38.95% demand to continue. Institutional Holding – 32.98% Persistent is trading at wonderful valuations and we feel that the stock deserves a re-rating considering the quality of earnings and the strong cash generating potential. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 4. Key Investment Highlights Strong Operations– Persistent systems is a well established player in the OPD market and has grown at a fast pace over its mid-cap peers. It has grown at a CAGR of 29% or 3.5x over FY06-11. Company’s growth rate through the global recession shows the resilience of the business model. Persistent has a strong domain focus and also at the fore-front of adopting new technologies. Persistent helps companies architect their products and provides services covering the entire lifecycle of product development. Significant Competitive Advantage– Persistent has a strong moat in the form of client’s trust which is a very big entry barrier for newer players. Persistent has nurtured this relationships over the years and hence been able to work on important projects of its customers. Persistent has a strong product development culture and a value focused business model built over the past two decades which is not easy to replicate. Strong Clientele– Persistent has a very strong clientele of around 300 customers of which nearly 40 customers have a revenue above 1 Billion $’s. They include marquee names like IBM (Since 2001), Microsoft (1993), Intel (2000), Oracle(1997) and Salesforce.com . Persistent’s clients on an average spend more than 10% of their top line in R&D which provides significant scope for customer mining. Growing relationship over the years and over 90% revenue from repeat customers are witness to the quality of Persistent’s work. High Quality Management– Persistent has very strong corporate governance processes which can be seen from its board composition (Quality Independent Directors), CSR activities and the transparency of the company even while it was private. Company has long term PE investors like Norwest Partners, Gabriel Partners who also bring in rich start-up contacts. Attractive Valuation– Persistent systems is trading at wonderful valuations considering its earnings quality and its differentiated focus. Company is trading at a EV/EBIDTA of 4.4 on FY 13(E) which is cheap for a company which has a ROCE of over 23%. Persistent deserves a premium when compared with its midcap peers and hence ready for a re- rating in its price. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 5. Outsourced Product Development ( OPD )– An Overview “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 6. What is OPD ? • Outsourced Product Development (OPD) refers to the outsourcing of a part of software development to third party vendors (TPV) by the Independent Software Vendors (ISV) like Microsoft, Oracle etc. OPD is a rapidly growing segment within outsourced software services and includes all kinds of activities like research, prototyping, development, testing, documentation deployment, maintenance etc. Why OPD ? • With heightened customer demand and ever increasing demand to cut down product cost and crunch time to market, ISV’s can remain competitive only by,  Reducing Product Lifecycle  Preventing Product from reaching the stage of technology obsolescence  Building Modular, Tightly integrated product to add on functionality  Focusing on new competencies. According to a study, Profitability is directly proportional to crashed time to market, number of release and indirectly proportional to number of bugs. Product Profitability = K *(Shortened Time)*(Number of Release)/ (Number of error) By Outsourcing Product Development, companies are able to shorten time to market , increase number of releases, decrease bug. The value K is value factor (expertise) which outsourcing service provider further brings to the table. ISV’s are able to get scalable delivery, mature project management practices, reduced management bandwidth and improved reliability. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 7. Indian ER&D Market  India’s Engineering R&D outsourcing market is expected to grow at a fast pace and its estimated that by 2020, India can capture 40% of the global ER&D spend due to a strong diverse service provider pool, large trained workforce and moving up the value chain by Indian Service Providers.  Persistent Systems focuses mainly on the three verticals of Telecom, Infrastructure & Systems and Life Sciences. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 8. Phases Of Outsourcing 1.) Labor Cost Efficiency- To reduce cost 2.) Process Efficiency- To improve quality 3.) Design Efficiency- Design for manufacturing (DFM) 4.) Innovation Efficiency- Original Design & Manufacturing (ODM) • Global Outsourcing of product development to TPV’s have grown significantly after the economic downturn which forced the IPV’s to look for efficient partners who add value to their product development. • The four phases shown above are the trends seen in outsourcing of product development in Industries like semi-conductors, automobile and electronics. Software development is probably between the 2 nd & 3rd phase of evolution and it is expected that within a decade it will reach the matured phase of original design and hence enable OPD companies to move up the value chain and create huge growth opportunities. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 9. Disadvantage of Captives • In a bid to leverage the cost advantages, better access to skills and for catering to local markets, a number of large captives have been established in India by major product companies like IBM, Oracle, Microsoft etc. • It can be seen from the fig that the size is large enough to accommodate both the TPV’s and captives. Most of the top 25 clients have a sizeable offshore presence in the form of captives but still find value with Persistent. Though , majority of the work is still done by the captives there is a strong case for it to change,  TVP’s like Persistent with their IP leveraged and process oriented delivery have an advantage over captives in decreasing the time to market of the product.  Changing market scenario because of disruptive technologies like cloud computing, mobility, analytics & collaboration are driving product strategies which the TPV’s are good at.  Lack of flexibility among captives due to higher overheads as compared to scale advantages of large TPV’s which enables them significant cost savings.  TPV’s have a broad based and deep exposure to large number of clients which gives them experience and knowledge when compared with captives and hence are able to perform effectively. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 10. IT Service Players Vs OPD Players Target Customers : Broad Set of Enterprises like GE Independent Software Vendors (ISV’s) like Oracle End Customer: Clients themselves Client’s customers Value Proposition: Reduces fixed costs and improves Reduces time to market, Variable costs and adds value efficiency Engagement Models: More Annuity Less Annuity based Business based business but in maintenance repeat Business contracts. from product upgrades. Customer Stickiness: Low due to non-core work and the High stickiness due to involvement of sensitive work scalability for a new player is relatively easy. and presence of high engineering skills & hence difficult for a new player to develop the requisites. Scope: All Fig 2008 -09 -10 -11 - 12 A - 13 E Offshore 2008 -09 -10 -11 -12 A -13 E in US $ Bn R&D/ Prod Develop IT SVCS Spend 544 541 555 578 606 639 Spend 7.7 8 9 10.7 13 16.1 YoY Growth % 5.4 -0.6 2.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 YoY % 4.1 3.9 12.5 18.9 21.5 23.8
  • 11. Technology Refresh Cycle– An Overview “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 12. Shifts in Technology • World is rapidly changing with increasing use of APPS across platforms like Ios, Android, Nokia-Windows, Blackberry etc. • There has been a paradigm shift in the business of IT Products market due to the evolution of new technologies and the way the products are deployed to customers. • The world is going through a technology refresh cycle after the global economic downturn and the first refresh cycle after the Y2K boom. • This refresh essentially enables all the companies to upgrade their existing IT systems which run on old technologies to more efficient and better IT in order to drive business growth. • This refresh cycle creates demand for new IT Products and embrace new technologies which is good for OPD players like Persistent Systems because of the increased product development. • Some of the major changes have been the shift from Capex to Opex model and viewing Software as a Service (SaaS). Last refresh cycle enabled businesses to move to the web platform and this refresh cycle is driven by the increasing mobility and cloud based services. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 13. New Technology Trends Cloud Computing Enterprise Mobility Analytics Enterprise Collaboration •Cloud Computing: It encompasses a general shift of computer processing, storage and software delivery away from the desktop and local servers to next generation common data centers maintained by infrastructure companies like Google, IBM & Microsoft. Cloud computing offers end-customers the chance to consume services on pay per use basis. It ensures better resource utilization through resource sharing and lower costs due to economies of scale. •Enterprise Mobility: With the proliferation of smart phones and advanced mobile devices like IPod's, Tablets etc, there is a constant demand for new/ upgraded applications running on these devices. Businesses are changing to take advantage of this large growing space. •Analytics: Global data has been growing exponentially with the advent of large users entering the web. Hence, there is a strong need for processing and managing large volumes of data which is driving analytics. Big Data is a new phenomenon. •Enterprise Collaboration: Collaboration involves designing applications or products that use web as a participation platform leading to highly active user-centric environment with a lot of user-generated content and interaction amongst its users. Corporate’s across the globe are latching on to these tools for better productivity. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 14. Persistent Systems – Business Overview “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 15. Key Highlights Differentiated Play with Strong Growth Drivers Persistent Systems is an end to end player in the outsourced product development space. Company has strong growth drivers Strong Balance Sheet and business demand is buoyant. Robust Clientele Persistent has a strong balance Persistent has a robust clientele of sheet with little debt and enough both large marquee names and leverage for new investments. start-ups to the tune of about 300 customers with the top 10 It has done good acquisitions in Persistent customers contributing to nearly the past and can expect this cash 50% of its revenues. to be spent judiciously. Systems Thought Leadership in Non-Linear Revenues Emerging Technologies Persistent has invested and created Persistent’s investment in new a large number of IP products which emerging technologies like cloud, have higher margins and generate mobility, analytics & collaboration non-linear revenues. during the slowdown has started to yield results with nearly 40% of It is expected to generate more than revenue from these technologies. 20% from IP led business in FY15 “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 16. Product Development Skills •Persistent is present across the entire value chain of product engineering business and helps clients to build products efficiently at a low cost in a short period of time. •Persistent helps web 2.0 companies to architect their products on a scalable and efficient platform. Persistent end to end services provides clients bandwidth to focus on product ideation and their sales/ distribution. •Nearly , 40-45% of Persistent’s revenues comes from new technologies like Enterprise mobility, Analytics, Cloud computing and Enterprise collaboration. • Persistent Systems recently developed Exploriments Mobile learning Apps for the global Ipad community which shows the flexibility of the organization and being on top of new trends. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 17. Focus Verticals & Technologies Cloud Computing (% of total Revenues: 10 %): Software companies are re-designing their products to operate with high degree of multi-tenancy. Persistent systems is partnering with leading vendors to enable software companies to migrate their products to the cloud platform. Persistent helps companies like IBM, Microsoft who sell cloud based products/ platforms to build the requisite infrastructure. Analytics (10%): Persistent’s expertise of processing and managing large volumes of data through data mining, statistical techniques and virtualization is used to deliver domain specific insights to customers. Enterprise Collaboration (15%): Persistent has been working with companies to build products that leverage technologies across e-mail and messaging, text mining and analytics, social networking and web 2.0. Persistent builds frameworks to integrate diverse collaboration tools. Enterprise Mobility (7%): Persistent has been working with handset manufacturers, wireless network equipment companies to build solutions like enterprise wide mobility platform which helps their clients to come on-board mobile platforms. Company’s early focus has enabled it to reap rich rewards. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 18. Selling Models Time & Expense Model Fixed Price (FPP) Turnkey Revenue Sharing/ Risk Reward (Offshore Development Projects Center Model) Dedicated Teams extend Clear Requirements and Complete product ownership customer engineering. change management process. for maintenance, road map ownership and upgrades. Onsite team with primary Initial Onsite presence for Onsite and offshore presence offshore execution. requirements phase. as appropriate. Flexible ramp-up and Flexible in on-tap experts Launching new products ramp-down suitable for available on short term together in new markets, Road ongoing co-development assignment. Suitable for map extensions etc. and quality analysis. (QA) performance/ Usability engineering, POC’s, QA automation and fixed requirement projects. Revenue % : 79.7 11.5 8.8 “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 19. Non- Linear Revenues •IP (Intellectual Property) led revenues are non- Growth of High Margin IP Business linear where there is no co-relation of its growth 25 with manpower growth or expense growth. 20 •Persistent having a product development 15 culture has invested significant amount of 10 energy and time in building IP based products % IP in total like connectors and these have high margin of ~ 5 60% which will lead to higher ROE’s. revenues 0 •IP share in overall revenues is consistently Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy Fy increasing and is expected to touch 20% before 07 08 09 10 11 12 15 2015. These IP’s also help in differentiating (E) (E) Persistent with other TPV’s. •Persistent has been constantly spending approximately 5% of the technical time of building IP based products and also investing 5% of its revenue for research. •Persistent has a “Sell With” strategy where it ties-up with large ISV’s and cross sells its IP’s with the large customer base of the ISV’s thus creating value. Persistent also helps the customers of ISV’s like salesforce.com to get on to its cloud platform. •Persistent has “Sell With” tie-ups with Nokia and Salesforce.com vindicating its strong relationship. It has also re-selling partnerships where it adds value/ customizes the current product of client and re-sells it. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 20. Inorganic Growth Date Acquired Company Rationale October, 2005 Control Net Domain Based Skills July, 2007 Metrikus (Certain Assets) Domain Based Skills October, 2009 Paxonix (Certain Assets) Exposure to their brand management solutions product February, 2011 Infospectrum Footprint in Europe, New clients, Exposure to newer domains like imagery May, 2011 Agilent Technologies Increase presence in Life Science’s market and geographic expansion in Europe Feb, 2012 Openwave Systems High Growth Location Business • Persistent’ Management has been pragmatic in spending cash on acquisitions and at the same time has been active in acquiring good assets which provide either technology skills, expansion to new geography or new clients. • Persistent has a very strong balance sheet with nearly 400 Crs of Cash & Equivalents + Net Current Assets. This cash can be used positively for acquiring good companies thus providing for inorganic growth. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 21. Strong Clientele Clients with 5+ > 45% Revenue In % Client Engagement Size Nos years of Concentration relationship Large > $3 Mn 11 Top 1 16.1 Medium >$1 Mn & < $3 Mn 26 Repeat ~ 91% Top 5 37.4 Small upto $1 Mn 314 Business Top 10 48.6 Total 351 % Of Revenues ~25% from Start-Ups • Persistent over the years has built strong relationships with its customers and thus established a sense of trust which will help it to scale the work done for clients and hence grow the clients accounts. • Persistent’s quality of clients can be seen from all parameters like client diversification, relationship timeline and the percentage of repeat business. • Persistent has nearly 40 clients who have a revenue of > 1 Bn $ and spend 10% of their revenue in R&D. These accounts can be mined strongly to grow the business and we are seeing indications of increased mining from the inductions seen in Sales & Marketing areas which will help to farm the existing large clients. • Persistent has increased the > $10 Mn clients from 1 in FY-10 to 5 in FY-12. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 22. Investment Rationale “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 23. Competitive Advantage Independent Software Start -Ups Vendors ( ISV’s) Persistent Private Equity players Systems System Integrators Venture Capitalists Research Institutions •Persistent has a very strong moat in the form of client stickiness which is very important in this business because of the high level of sensitive work involved. The OPD Provider must have the trust of the client to move up the value chain and get high engineered work. •Persistent’s focus on OPD segment for the past two decades has enabled it build a strong relationship with several players involved in the segment which can be seen in the diagram above. A new player entering the space can’t build it easily and companies which intend to enter this space will have to make an acquisition of the existing player. •Persistent’s work with start-ups help it to be at the forefront of emerging technology trends which help in building quality IP products which can be leveraged while working with large enterprises. •The time and energy invested by Persistent in creating IP based products which help in reducing the Time to Market for developing products in certain focused verticals serve as a moat which is difficult to replicate. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 24. Strong Volume Growth & Accolades • Persistent System has seen very strong growth sequentially on the top line with average > 5% growth (Q0Q) for the past 10 quarters indicating strong demand. Persistent has been growing faster than the industry at a very healthy pace for the past 5 years. • Persistent’s management had been able to meet their guidance for FY-12 in spite of tough environment conditions where almost every IT major missed their guidance or revised them downwards. • Zinnov Management consulting, a leading globalization advisory firm in its global R&D service provider ratings for the year 2010-11 has recognized Persistent as one of the leading service provide in two key “Zinnov Zones” of cloud computing and Software/ ISV R&D which recognizes the work of Persistent. • Persistent in-line with its strategy of working with large enterprises has recently tied up with Nextel & Realcom to assist their product development. It has also tied up with IBM on Big Insights. Company is working several high tech projects like robotics, Instrumentation etc. •Persistent is a part of 1M/1M initiative which aims at helping 1 million entrepreneurs reach 1 million $ revenue and this provides it a good platform for collaborating with small new age start-ups. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 25. Concerns  Margins & Growth in Bottom Line: Bottom line growth lagging the top line growth has been a strong concern along with a dip in EBIDTA margin of around 390 bps. There are concerns on margins going forward but we still expect the company to maintain a healthy EBDITA of around 20% for next 3 yrs.  Tax Rate: The big hit on the PAT margins this year came from the increase in tax rate from about 7% in Fy-11 to about 30% in Fy-12 due to the withdrawal of tax concessions on software exports. This is not a surprise and the management has been guiding it for a long time.  Small Client Accounts: Another concern has been the small client account in spite of having strong clients and the management actions on this can be seen from the appointment of Mr. Hariharan, Mr. Ramnath Puranik, Mr. Micheal Kerr, Mr. Bradley Scott and Dr. Jorg Turmhoff over the past 3 years to improve the client relations and mine more business and the results have been encouraging.  Wage Inflation: Wage Inflation has been witnessed by everyone in the Industry and we expect salary increments to come in the next 3 months which will have a small effect on margins.  No Pan- Indian Presence: Persistent is more localized in Pune and is expanding in Nagpur and Goa. We expect the company to spread its geographical presence as the company grows.  Attrition: It has been a very serious concern for the entire industry and Persistent’s salary increments will help it in at least maintaining the attrition rate at the current 19%. India with a large base of employees will be able to meet the demand arising out of hiring.  H1 B Visa Issue: Persistent doesn’t have a short term problem as it has enough visa’s but can be a problem in the future if the scenario doesn’t change.  Currency Risk: Foreign exchange change will have an impact on Persistent but over a period time it should able to manage the risk by proper hedging. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 26. Margin Levers • Persistent has sufficient margin levers to maintain the EBIDTA margins at around 20% in the form of,  IP based products which have a margin of more than 60% are expected to increase which will enable better margins. Though IP revenue may be volatile on QoQ basis, it has tremendous potential in long run.  Employee pyramid is broadening at the base and is expected to have higher utilization over the next few quarters. This will accrue after the training of fresher's.  Yield from work will increase gradually in the long term as the company gets more high end work.  DTC which can be expected to get implemented within the next 2 years will help in getting the tax rate down by about 200 bps which will directly flow into the bottom line and boost the PAT margin. We are not considering it in our financial projections. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 27. Financials “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 28. Earnings Projection Y/E March ( Rs Cr) 2010 2011 2012 2013 (E) 2014 (E) Revenue 601.2 776 1006 1158.6 1309.2 EBIDTA 146 158 196 263.8 301.7 Pre-Tax Profit 124 150 195 234.8 268.7 Profit after Tax (PAT) 115 140 141 169.1 196.1 EPS (Rs) 32.1 34.9 35.45 42.26 49.03 Cash Profits 149 182 191 232 264 Free Cash Flow 47 (95.3) 82.4 68.3 119.9 EV/ EBIDTA 7.8 7.2 6.4 4.4 3.7 ROCE (%) 17.5 19.3 23.2 24.3 23.5 ROIC (%) 45.7 34.1 26.6 27.3 30.5 Book Value 178.1 186.8 216.7 239.7 284.2 “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 29. Management Quality Share June Mar Dec Sep June • Persistent is promoted by first Holding % 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 generation technocrat entrepreneur Dr. Anand Deshpande who is an active Promoters 38.95 38.95 38.95 38.89 38.88 member of CII. FII 2.67 6.28 6.12 6.95 9.40 • It is a professionally run organization with high focus on corporate governance DII 30.31 26.54 25.99 24.60 21.71 and strong board processes. • More than 29% of its employees are Notable Investors Share post-graduates with strong track record. Holding % • Investors like Intel have been with the company for more than Norwest Venture 13.51 10 years and the employees are rewarded well with ESOP’s. Partners (NVP) •Existing investors holding to the stock for several years speaks Employees ESOP 8.95 for the quality of the company. Trust • Management wants to surpass the guidance given by them Gabriel Ventures 4.86 and earn investors respect as it is a newly listed company. Intel Capital 2.29 • Company has been profitable since its inception and has been doing CSR activities for the past several years. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 30. Attractive Valuations Hexaware Patni Polaris Mindtree Persistent Top-line growth for past 3 7.99 4.6 13 26.82 18.8 years % CAGR EBIDTA Margins ( FY 11) % 13.4 16.66 17.1 13.4 27.2 P/E (TTM) 11.58 10.2 5.4 11.9 10.52 • Since, there are not any pure-play OPD companies in the listed space we are comparing Persistent with the midcap IT space. It can be seen from the table that Persistent has been quoting at wonderful valuations in spite of having better parameters than the mid-cap IT space. • Persistent has a healthy dividend payout ratio of 18% and the stock is currently quoting at a dividend yield of 2.4% and P/B of 1.15 which is very cheap. • Mindtree acquired Aztecsoft, a struggling pure play OPD player in 2008 at a valuation of around 360 Cr which had a top line of 60 Million $ and even posted quarterly losses just before its acquisition. • Business competitors of Persistent includes the captives of large ISV’s and pure play OPD players which are held privately like Global Logic which is backed by Sequoia Capital. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 31. Conclusion “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 32. Price chart • Persistent Systems came out with an IPO on Mar, 2010 at 310/ share and was subscribed by over 93 times and the demand was very high in the Qualified Institutional Buyer (QIB) with over 144 times subscription. The share opened in the market at a price of over 400 Rs. • It soon went onto touch new highs of over 480 but started to decrease because of the margin pressures faced by the company and the general market conditions after Nov, 2010. • After the correction, Persistent is available at wonderful valuations and an Investor can expect to generate good returns by adding Persistent to his portfolio. Persistent is the best pick in the mid-cap IT space and will outperform the sector returns. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
  • 33. Conclusion Persistent Systems is a niche IT play on the growing OPD market. The trends are pretty strong and persistent will continue to grow at a healthy pace considering its strong clientele and thought leadership in emerging technologies. Moreover, with the increased dependence on Technology across Industries and disruptive trends is resulting in good business prospects for Persistent Systems. OPD growth is expected to be higher than the IT services growth for at least the next three years and considering the competitive advantage of Persistent, it must be able to seize the opportunities which are coming along its way in a profitable manner. Persistent Systems benefits from Mobile Revolution, IPAD/ Tablets penetration and huge grow of analytics using data like Social Media including Facebook and Twitter. Considering the quality of earnings, niche space, strong management, good clientele and healthy balance sheet, we feel that the company must trade at a premium to other mid-cap IT players. The company is also quoting at a valuation discount of more than 45% with the bigger IT players which can be expected to decrease by at least a few percentage points. The company is presently quoting at a forward P/E of 5.89 and considering the earnings growth the company can easily command a valuation of at least 14 on forward P/E and this re-rating will lead to good gains on the counter which can be expected in coming months. Moreover the continuous pressure on Rupee will benefit in expanding its margins further and we may revise estimated based on Rupee movement. A Quality company whose ROCE is over 20% is available at around 1X forward Book which is cheap by any parameters in spite of above average fundamentals and growth prospects. But considering the quality of the company, it can be held as a long term holding in one’s portfolio. Persistent can deliver consistent growth and is definitely a blue chip stock in the making. “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “
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  • 36. THANK YOU “ Specialists in discovering Multibagger stocks “