Don Paul, Director of the USC Energy Institute and former CTO, presented at the GW Solar Institute Symposium on April 19, 2010. More information at solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html

1. Donald L. Paul, Executive Director, University of Southern California Energy Institute William M. Keck Chair of Energy Resources George Washington University Solar Symposium Solar Transportation - Electricity or Portable Fuel?

3. Complexity Science and Technology + Economics and Business + Society and Environment + Policy and Government

6. Existing supply and demand infrastructure New resources, infrastructures, and paradigms Multiple generations of technology History, the present, and the future always co-exist Time

7. Globalization of demand: growth and the Great Recession

8. -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China Middle East India Other Asia Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia Africa OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Million b/d Source: IEA, WEO 2008 Globalization of demand: projected fuel growth from 2006 to 2030

10. Fuel and transport supply chains Production Infrastructure Distribution and Supply Infrastructure Vehicle Technology Platform Electricity Existing & new Existing & new New Petroleum Existing & new Existing Existing Synthetic Fuel New Existing Existing Bio-fuel Existing & new Existing & new Existing Natural Gas Existing & new Existing & new Existing & modified Hydrogen Existing & new New New

12. The challenge for liquids supply 4-7% Production Decline IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 – 45 MBOE/D 2030 70-100 MBOE/D Existing Production Capacity 2007 2015 2030 Global Liquids Supply Millions B/D Source: NPC 2007 Report – The Hard Truths” - One Year Later

13. The challenge for liquids supply 4-7% Production Decline IEO 2008 Demand Range 2015 30 – 45 MBOE/D 2030 70-100 MBOE/D Existing Production Capacity 2007 2015 2030 Global Liquids Supply Millions B/D Source: NPC 2007 Report – The Hard Truths” - One Year Later Conventional non OPEC Conventional OPEC Unconventional and biofuels