Robert Margolis | DOE Solar Analysis Agenda

DOE’s Solar Analysis Agenda: Current Activities and Future Directions Presented at Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy Symposium George Washington University Washington, DC Robert M. Margolis Senior Energy Analysis National Renewable Energy Laboratory April 24, 2009

Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Solar Analysis Organization DOE Solar Program NREL DC Margolis, Price LBNL, SNL, BNL Wiser, Bolinger, et al. NREL Golden: Cory, Dehnolm, Blair, et al. Subcontractors New West, etc. Data Analysis and Visualization Energy Forecasting and Modeling Market and Policy Impact Analysis Technology Systems and Sustainability

Market and Value Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Market analysis example (a): Tracking installed PV system costs ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Recent LBNL report, Tracking the Sun: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2007

Market analysis example (b): The Solar Deployment Systems (SolarDS) Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Model Input ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Model Output SolarDS is a market penetration model that forecasts PV installations on residential and commercial rooftops in the U.S. under various economic and policy scenarios to 2030. 2030

Value Analysis Example: Web-based distributed PV value clearinghouse ,[object Object],[object Object],Access at: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/pvclearinghouse/

Policy and Financial Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Policy analysis example (a): 2009 residential PV and electricity price differences with existing incentives ,[object Object],[object Object],Draft

Policy analysis example (b): 2015 residential breakeven cost with federal ITC but no state incentives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Draft

Financial analysis example (a): Tracking and analyzing investment trends in solar ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Total global investment in solar energy

Financial analysis example (b): Tracking and analyzing investment trends in solar ,[object Object],[object Object]

Financial analysis example (c): Report on financing PV by state and local government ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Modeling Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Modeling analysis example: The Solar Advisor Model (SAM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Grid-Integration, MT, and CSP Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Grid-Integration Analysis Example: The Renewable Systems Interconnection Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future analysis directions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example Publications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Robert Margolis | DOE Solar Analysis Agenda

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Robert Margolis | DOE Solar Analysis Agenda