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Build Wealth … Reduce Risk



                                              Critical Factors to
                                              Reduce Volatility and
                                              Maximize Value




By Guy E. Baker CFP, MSFS, ChFC, MBA
Phone 949 900-0099 ● Toll free 877 282-7658 ● www.Wealth-Teams.com
Recent Dalbar QAIB Study
                      2



The AVERAGE Investor Received, Over The Last
20 Years, Less Than 3.4% Return On Investment

Compare This To The Overall Market Return Of
                  10.5%.




            WHY?
Morningstar Returns
                                   10Years ending 2009
                                                  3


                                              5.3%

                                                                 4.6%
                                                      4.0%

                          3.2%                                                      3.3%
                                                                      3.0%
                                 2.6%


        1.6%                                                                             1.7%



             0.2%

      US Equity     International Equity   Taxable Bonds     Municipal Bonds   All Mutual Funds



Fund Returns              Investor Returns
“Wealth comes from knowing what others do NOT know.”
                   Aristotle Onassis
                             4


  Purpose of this Primer

  To Demonstrate How Our Proven, Effective Models
  For Buying Markets Instead Of Stocks, Coupled With
  The FOUR Critical Factors Can Build Your Wealth …

           1.   Reduce Volatility
           2.   Optimize Portfolio Construction
           3.   Reduce Expenses and Fees
           4.   Reduce Taxes
There is only one side to the stock market…not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me
   longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the technical phases.
                         Jesse Livermore–Successfulinvestor duringtheDepression
                                                      5


              Risk vs.Return
  What are the Building Blocks of Wealth?




                                                          Risk




  Knowledge is the Cornerstone to Success
There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate - when he
             can’tafford itand when he can.” - Mark Twain
                                    6




      Risk




     Critical Factor #1: VOLATILITY

                   Volatility Forces Bad Decisions
     It Destroys Portfolio Value Unless You Capture The Bounce!

        Let Us Show You How To Make Volatility Work For You.
Why Managing Volatility is Important!!!
                    7



  Can You Answer This Problem?



  - 50%      Down       Up   + 50%



            Are you Even?
Understanding Internal Rate of Return
                   8



       What is the AVERAGE?



 - 50%      Down   +   Up   + 50%


      ((-50% +50%)/ 2) =0%
Understanding Internal Rate of Return
                        9



What is the REAL RATE OF RETURN?



- 50%   Down   X   Up       =          -25%
                                Down




        (-50% x 50%) =-25%
The Mathematics of Volatility
                                         10

350%
                                                         Down     Up
300%                                                      5%     5.26%
                                                         10%     11.11%
250%
                                                         20%    25.00%
200%
                                                         30%    42.86%
150%                                                     40%    66.67%
                                                         50%    100.00%
100%
                                                         60%    150.00%
50%                                                      70%    233.33%

 0%
                                                         75%    300.00%
       5% 10%    20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70% 75%
Capture the Bounce
               11



                                 New High


High




                Manage the RED ZONE
Efficient Markets Hypothesis
                              12




• The Market incorporates ALL available information and
  expectations, IMMEDIATELY
• The Market price approximates intrinsic value of the
  underlying enterprises DAILY
• Abrupt changes in Market price are due SOLELY to
  unforeseen events, such as 9-11.
• While “mispricing” does occur, it is not PREDICTABLE .
  There is no pattern leading to consistent outperformance.

                           Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago
Recessionary Period
                                        January 2007 - March 2010
                                                               13
                             60%




                             40%             Recession Began
                                             December 2007

                                             Unemployment
S&P 500 Index Total Return




                                             Rate at 5.0%
                             20%                                                                 Unemployment
                                                                                                 Rate at 9.7%
                                                                                                 March 2010

                              0%




                             -20%
                                                                                       Unemployment
                                                                                       Rate at 10.0%
                                                                                       November
                             -40%                                                      2009

                                                                Recession Announced
                                                                December 1, 2008
                             -60%
                                 2007              2008                         2009            2010
Equity Values Change Daily
            14




                         Average
Distribution of Market Returns
                                                                                                       1949
                                                                                                       20.2
                                                                                                       1951
                                                                                                       20.7
                                                                                                       1963
                                                               15                                      21.0
                                                                                                       1982
                                                                                                       21.0
                                                                              1970                     1944

 CRISP 1-10 Index Annual                                                      0.0
                                                                              1953         1993
                                                                                                       21.3
                                                                                                       1996

  Returns
                                                                               0.7         11.1        21.4
                                                                              1960         2004        1983
                                                                               1.2         12.0        22.0

 1926 -2010                                                                  1987
                                                                               1.7
                                                                                           1959
                                                                                           12.1
                                                                                                       1979
                                                                                                       22.6
                                                                              1948         1952        1998        1997
                                                                               2.1         13.4        24.3        31.4
                                                                              1939         1968        1955        2003
                                                                               2.9         14.1        25.2        31.6
                                                                              1947         1965        1999        1985
                                                                               3.6         14.5        25.3        32.2
                                                     1973         1966        1934         2006        1976        1936
                  63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%)            -18.1        -8.7         4.3         15.5        26.8        32.3
                                                     1929         1932        1984         1942        1961        1980
                 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%)             -14.6        -8.7         4.5         16.0        26.9        32.8
                                                     2000         1940        2007         2064        1938        1927
                                                     -11.4        -7.1         5.8         16.1        28.1        33.4
                                                     2001         1990        2005         1971        1943        1991
                                                     -11.1        -6.0         6.2         16.2        28.4        34.7
                                                     1969         1946        1978         1986        1967        1995
                                                     -10.9        -5.9         7.5         16.2        28.7        36.8
                                        1930         1962         1977        1956         1972        2009        1945         1935
                                        -26.5        -10.2        -4.3         8.3         16.8        28.8        38.1         44.3
                           2008         1974         1957         1981        1926         1988        1989        1975         1958
                           -36.7        -27.0        -10.1        -3.6         9.2         18.0        28.9        38.8         45.0
               1931        1937         2002         1941         1994        1992         2010        1950        1928         1954         1933
               -43.5       -34.7        -21.1        -10.0        -0.1         9.8         17.9        29.6        38.9         50.0         57.1
           -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0%   0% to -10%   10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40%   40% to 50%   50% to 60%


                                                                 Annual Return Range
Distribution of Market Returns
                                                                                                       1949
                                                                                                       20.2
                                                                                                       1951
                                                                                                       20.7
                                                                                                       1963
                                                               16                                      21.0
                                                                                                       1982
                                                                                                       21.0
                                                                              1970                     1944

 CRISP 1-10 Index Annual                                                      0.0
                                                                              1953         1993
                                                                                                       21.3
                                                                                                       1996

  Returns
                                                                               0.7         11.1        21.4
                                                                              1960         2004        1983
                                                                               1.2         12.0        22.0

 1926 -2010                                                                  1987
                                                                               1.7
                                                                                           1959
                                                                                           12.1
                                                                                                       1979
                                                                                                       22.6
                                                                              1948         1952        1998        1997
                                                                               2.1         13.4        24.3        31.4
                                                                              1939         1968        1955        2003
                                                                               2.9         14.1        25.2        31.6
                                                                              1947         1965        1999        1985
                                                                               3.6         14.5        25.3        32.2
                                                     1973         1966        1934         2006        1976        1936
                  63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%)            -18.1        -8.7         4.3         15.5        26.8        32.3
                                                     1929         1932        1984         1942        1961        1980
                 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%)             -14.6        -8.7         4.5         16.0        26.9        32.8
                                                     2000         1940        2007         2064        1938        1927
                                                     -11.4        -7.1         5.8         16.1        28.1        33.4
                                                     2001         1990        2005         1971        1943        1991
                                                     -11.1        -6.0         6.2         16.2        28.4        34.7
                                                     1969         1946        1978         1986        1967        1995
                                                     -10.9        -5.9         7.5         16.2        28.7        36.8
                                        1930         1962         1977        1956         1972        2009        1945         1935
                                        -26.5        -10.2        -4.3         8.3         16.8        28.8        38.1         44.3
                           2008         1974         1957         1981        1926         1988        1989        1975         1958
                           -36.7        -27.0        -10.1        -3.6         9.2         18.0        28.9        38.8         45.0
               1931        1937         2002         1941         1994        1992         2010        1950        1928         1954         1933
               -43.5       -34.7        -21.1        -10.0        -0.1         9.8         17.9        29.6        38.9         50.0         57.1
           -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0%   0% to -10%   10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40%   40% to 50%   50% to 60%


                                                                 Annual Return Range
Distribution of Market Returns
                                                                                                       1949
                                                                                                       20.2
                                                                                                       1951
                                                                                                       20.7
                                                                                                       1963
                                                               17                                      21.0
                                                                                                       1982
                                                                                                       21.0
                                                                              1970                     1944

 CRISP 1-10 Index Annual                                                      0.0
                                                                              1953         1993
                                                                                                       21.3
                                                                                                       1996

  Returns
                                                                               0.7         11.1        21.4
                                                                              1960         2004        1983
                                                                               1.2         12.0        22.0

 1926 -2010                                                                  1987
                                                                               1.7
                                                                                           1959
                                                                                           12.1
                                                                                                       1979
                                                                                                       22.6
                                                                              1948         1952        1998        1997
                                                                               2.1         13.4        24.3        31.4
                                                                              1939         1968        1955        2003
                                                                               2.9         14.1        25.2        31.6
                                                                              1947         1965        1999        1985
                                                                               3.6         14.5        25.3        32.2
                                                     1973         1966        1934         2006        1976        1936
                  63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%)            -18.1        -8.7         4.3         15.5        26.8        32.3
                                                     1929         1932        1984         1942        1961        1980
                 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%)             -14.6        -8.7         4.5         16.0        26.9        32.8
                                                     2000         1940        2007         2064        1938        1927
                                                     -11.4        -7.1         5.8         16.1        28.1        33.4
                                                     2001         1990        2005         1971        1943        1991
                                                     -11.1        -6.0         6.2         16.2        28.4        34.7
                                                     1969         1946        1978         1986        1967        1995
                                                     -10.9        -5.9         7.5         16.2        28.7        36.8
                                        1930         1962         1977        1956         1972        2009        1945         1935
                                        -26.5        -10.2        -4.3         8.3         16.8        28.8        38.1         44.3
                           2008         1974         1957         1981        1926         1988        1989        1975         1958
                           -36.7        -27.0        -10.1        -3.6         9.2         18.0        28.9        38.8         45.0
               1931        1937         2002         1941         1994        1992         2010        1950        1928         1954         1933
               -43.5       -34.7        -21.1        -10.0        -0.1         9.8         17.9        29.6        38.9         50.0         57.1
           -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0%   0% to -10%   10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40%   40% to 50%   50% to 60%


                                                                 Annual Return Range
Long Term Dangers of Market Timing
                                18

                        Hypothetical value of $1 invested from 1926-2010
$3,000
          $2,577
$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$ 500
                                  $18.85               $20
                                   Stocks
         Total Market                                  Treasuries
                          minus the BEST 34 months
Academics of Volatility
                                                             19



 In finance, volatility refers to the standard                         deviation of a continuum of
  returns within a specific time period. It is used to quantify the amount of
  variability associated with the financial instrument over this period.


                                 10.7%
                              Average ROI
                                                                          • Volatility is described in
                -1 σ =-8.4%                  +1 σ =29.8%                    annualized terms and is
                                                                            expressed as a fraction of
                                                                            the average .
                                                                            (mean eg. +/- 19.1%).
                              σ = 19.1%

  -30%   -20%   -10%     0%      10%   20%      30%        40%    50%
How Volatility Impacts Return
                      20


   Portfolio A                 Portfolio B
 Year     Return             Year      Return

   1       10%                  1       20%
   2       10%                  2        -5%
   3       10%
                   Compare      3       -10%
   4       10%                  4       20%
   5       10%                  5       25%
Ave ROI   10.00%             Ave ROI   10.00%
IRR       10.00%             IRR        9.01%
Why Volatility Matters!
                               21



          Portfolio A                         Portfolio B
Year Return         Results         Year Return         Results
                   $ 100,000                           $ 100,000
  1        10%     $ 110,000          1        20%     $ 120,000
  2        10%     $ 121,000          2         -5%    $ 114,000
  3        10%     $ 133,100          3        -10%    $ 102,600
  4        10%     $ 146,410          4        20%     $ 123,120
  5        10%     $ 161,051          5         25%    $ 153,900
Ave ROI   10.00%                    Ave ROI   10.00%
IRR       10.00%                    IRR        9.01%
Measuring Risk - What is Volatility?
                                       22

 How far From the
     Mean?

         +10%
                      Average

                    -15%                                   Average
                                                        2/3rds of all   2/3rds of all
                                                         Negative         Positive
                                                         Returns          Returns




                                                                                        How far From
                                                                                         the Mean?




                       -30%     -20%        -10%   0%             10%           20%     30%   40%      50%
So, Which Graph Depicts Less Risk?
                                                                 23


       Normal                11.4%
                            Average
                              ROI

                                             +1 σ =23.8%
        -1 σ =-1.1%

                                                                                                 11.4%
                                                                                                Average
                                                                                                  ROI
                           σ = 12.4%                                          σ = 6.4%                           σ = 16.4%




-30%    -20%   -10%   0%     10%       20%   30%    40%    50%




                                                                                                σ = 5%
                                                                                                σ = 5.4%



                                                                      -30%   -20%   -10%   0%   10%      20%   30%   40%     50%
What’s the REAL Rate of Return?
                 24
     Bill’s                   Ted’s

 1       25%             1       14%
 2       25%             2       15%
 3       25%             3       13%
 4       25%             4       16%
 5      -30%             5        4%

  14.00%       Average
               Return        12.40%
What’s the INTERNAL Rate of Return?
                   25
        Bill’s               Ted’s

    1       25%         1       14%
    2       25%         2       15%
    3       25%         3       13%
    4       25%         4       16%
    5      -30%         5        4%

    11.31%        IRR       12.34%
Sequence Risk
                        26


Portfolio A                         Portfolio B
Year Return                       Year Return
                    Which
  1       -10%                       1       20%
  2         -5%
                    Return           2       25%
  3        20%       Was             3       20%
  4        25%                       4      -10%
  5        20%
                    Higher?          5        -5%
Average    10%                    Average   10%
Sequence Risk
                               27




        Portfolio A                           Portfolio B
Year Return Results                      Year Return Results
                $ 10,000                               $ 10,000
   1      -10% $ 9,000      There is      1      20% $ 12,000
                                          2      25% $ 15,000
   2        -5% $ 8,550         no        3      20% $ 18,000
   3       20% $ 10,260
   4       25% $ 12,825    difference!    4     -10% $ 16,200
   5       20% $ 15,390                   5       -5% $ 15,390
Average    10%                           Average   10%
Capture The 50% Bounce
                                                            28

                                                                               New High
          Variance
         Differential




         Old High



                                                               Manage the Red Zone




Volatility Can Help You Build Wealth!   Let Us Help You Capture The BOUNCE!
How Much Risk Are You Buying?
                                29


Every Portfolio has risk!
      How much risk have you purchased?


How can you tell?
      First, Calibrate the asset class distribution
      Use Benchmarks to determine Historical Expected
       Return
      Compare to volatility Index to your current portfolio




    Volatility Can Build Wealth For You
Critical Factor #2: Portfolio Construction
                                30




      Risk




  Portfolio Construction Is Like Building A Home …
             Do Your Homework, Plan Well & You’ll
                   Live Happily Ever After!




Learn How To Build A Successful Portfolio
The 1986 Brinson Study
                                          31

                                                Only 6.4% is attributable to being in the
                                               right specific investment at the right time.




 Gary Brinson




    93.6% is attributable to Asset
Allocation … being in the right type of
     investment at the right time.
Is Allocation MORE Importantthan Stock Picking?
                                  32



 Warren E. Buffett –
       “Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find
        the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund
        that charges minimal fees.”


 Peter Lynch –
       “All the time and effort people devote to picking the right
        fund, the hot hand, the great manager, have in most cases led
        to no advantage.”
The Academics of Passive Investing
                          33




 Merton Miller      Harry Markowitz   William Sharpe

                 Nobel Prize 1990
                   EconomicSciences
The Three Factor Model
                                                      34


Structure Determine Performance


     -Over 96% of the variation in returns
      is due to risk factor exposure
     -This leaves less than 4% of the variation
      to explain
     -After fees, traditional management typically
      reduces returns




The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating



               Average          Average         Sensitivity        Sensitivity       Sensitivity        Random
               Expected     =   Excess     + to Markets +            to Size     +    to BtM       +     Error
               Return           Return




                                                              Priced Risk                              Unpriced Risk
                                                                   Positive Expected Return              Zero Expected Return
                                                                   Systematic                             Noise
                                                                   Economic                               Random
                                                                   Long Term                             Short Term
                                                                   Investing                              Speculating
How to Construct a Portfolio?
                     35



Four Typical Asset Classes:
 Cash              Stocks or Equities
 Bonds or Debt     Real Estate


Specialty Asset Classes:
 Commodities       Precious Metals
 Currencies        Fine Art
 Collectables      Utilities
Efficient Frontier
             36




0%     5%   10%   15%   20%   25%
Total Market Return--1926-2011
                                                        37

$10,000
                                                                                                              $2,749
 $1,000


  $100


   $10


     $1 7/1/1926 11/1/1934 3/1/1943   7/1/1951 11/1/1959 3/1/1968 7/1/1976 11/1/1984 3/1/1993 7/1/2001 11/1/2009




    $0
S&P 500 Return--1926-2011
                                                          38
$10,000
                                                                                                               S&P 500:
                                                                                                                $3,249
 $1,000
                                                                                                                   Total
                                                                                                                   Market:
                                                                                                                   $2,749
  $100


   $10


     $1 7/1/1926   11/1/1934 3/1/1943 7/1/1951 11/1/1959 3/1/1968 7/1/1976 11/1/1984 3/1/1993 7/1/2001 11/1/2009




    $0
The Three Factor Model
                                                      39


Structure Determine Performance


     -Over 96% of the variation in returns
      is due to risk factor exposure
     -This leaves less than 4% of the variation
      to explain
     -After fees, traditional management typically
      reduces returns




The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating



               Average          Average         Sensitivity        Sensitivity
                                                                   Sensitivity       Sensitivity        Random
               Expected     =   Excess     + to Markets +            to Size
                                                                        Size     +    to BtM       +     Error
               Return           Return




                                                              Priced Risk                              Unpriced Risk
                                                                   Positive Expected Return              Zero Expected Return
                                                                   Systematic                             Noise
                                                                   Economic                               Random
                                                                   Long Term                             Short Term
                                                                   Investing                              Speculating
Portfolio Construction - Capitalization
                                   40



       Capitalization measures
  the relative size of the enterprise.


 Stock        X
                Outstanding
 Price           Shares
Company        Price         Shares      Capitalization
 Microsoft     $27.90         8.56bil      $238.72 bil
   Intel       $21.46         5.58 bil     $119.7 bil
Gn’l Motors    $34.00         1.5 bil        $51 bil
Portfolio Construction
                    41
Capitalization


      1
      2
      3             Force Rank the value
      4
      5             of all 7,800 Publically
      .
      .
      .
                         Traded Stocks
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .



     7,800
Portfolio Construction
                           42
  Capitalization

          1
          2
          3        LARGE
          4
          5
          .
                           The Median divides the
Median
          .
          .
                              Largest from the
          .
          .
                                  Smallest
          .
          .        SMALL
          .
          .

         7,800
The Three Factor Model
                                                      43


Structure Determine Performance


     -Over 96% of the variation in returns
      is due to risk factor exposure
     -This leaves less than 4% of the variation
      to explain
     -After fees, traditional management typically
      reduces returns




The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating



               Average          Average         Sensitivity        Sensitivity       Sensitivity
                                                                                     Sensitivity        Random
               Expected     =   Excess     + to Markets +            to Size     +     to BtM
                                                                                      To BtM       +     Error
               Return           Return




                                                              Priced Risk                              Unpriced Risk
                                                                   Positive Expected Return              Zero Expected Return
                                                                   Systematic                             Noise
                                                                   Economic                               Random
                                                                   Long Term                             Short Term
                                                                   Investing                              Speculating
What is the Book to Market Ratio?
                        44




    Book Value or Liquidation Value

           Capitalization Value

  If Book Value is low – then it is a GROWTH Stock
  If Book Value is HIGH – the it is a VALUE Stock
Rerank Stocks Based on BtM
                     45

   Ranked by BtM


         1                Growth
         2
         3
         4
         5
         .   LARGE
         .    CAP
         .
         .
         .
                           Value
         .
Median
Book to
 Capitalization   Market        Portfolio Construction
                           46
                     1
            1
            2        2                  GROWTH
                     3
            3              Median
  LARGE     4        4
            5        5
   CAP      .        .
            .        .                    VALUE
            .
Median      .      3,900
            .
            .
                     1
            .
                     2
                                        GROWTH
            .
            .        3     Median
  SMALL     .        4
   CAP      .        5
            .        .
            .        .                   VALUE

          7,800    3,900
Portfolio Construction
          47




  A            B
  C            D
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011
                      48


LARGE GROWTH                   LARGE VALUE
    σ=18.8%                         σ=26.2%




                     $2,749
              Total Market Return
                   σ =18.75%

SMALL GROWTH                   SMALL VALUE
    σ=28.3%                         σ=30.1%
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011
                  49

 LARGE GROWTH             LARGE VALUE

$1,801 σ=18.8%

                 $2,749
          Total Market Return
               σ =18.75%

 SMALL GROWTH               SMALL VALUE
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011
                       50

LARGE GROWTH                   LARGE VALUE

      $1,801

                      $2,749
               Total Market Return
                    σ =18.75%


SMALL GROWTH                    SMALL VALUE

$1,523 σ=28.3%
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2010
                    51

LARGE GROWTH                LARGE VALUE

   $1,801                   $4,800 σ=26.2%

                   $2,749
            Total Market Return
                 σ =18.75%

SMALL GROWTH                    SMALL VALUE
   $1,523
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011
                    52

LARGE GROWTH                LARGE VALUE

   $1,801                         $4,800


                   $2,749
            Total Market Return
                 σ =18.75%


SMALL GROWTH                  SMALL VALUE
   $1,523
Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011
                     53

LARGE GROWTH                LARGE VALUE

   $1,801                         $4,800

                   $2,749
            Total Market Return
                 σ =18.75%


SMALL GROWTH                 SMALL VALUE
   $1,523                 $59,341 σ=30.1%
Portfolio Re-Construction
                                                   54




                         A                              B
                      A + B + C + D = 100%


                      C                          D
Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage A Risk Efficient Portfolio
If You Were Going To Ride
To The TOP of This Building?
             55
Which Elevator Feels Safer?
             56
Why Diversification Matters
                                  1996     1997     1998    1999     2000     2001     2002    2003    2004    2005    2006     2007     2008    2009    2010
                                  37.05   36.94    28.58    66.41   31.04    40.59     7.62    74.48   35.14   34.54   35.97   39.78     8.83    79.02   34.59
                                  22.96   33.75    23.11    33.01    8.96    18.04     5.11    69.18   33.16   24.13   32.99    8.16     6.60    70.19   29.53
                                  22.36   33.36    11.95    30.16    8.28    12.35     3.82    66.79   32.11   22.63   32.59    8.04     4.75    51.48   28.07
                                  19.97   25.79    10.24    28.41    7.33     8.44     3.58    60.25   30.58   15.10   27.54    6.35    -37.00   47.81   20.79
                                  17.43   19.66     9.69    21.51    4.01     7.28     3.39    57.81   27.33   13.82   26.32    6.31    -38.64   47.02   20.17
                                  10.23    7.27     8.41    21.04    -2.01    6.44     -2.85   56.28   25.95    9.70   21.87    6.24    -39.20   44.83   19.30
                                   7.67    7.12     7.75     6.99    -3.08    -2.37    -6.00   36.43   19.15    5.61   21.70    5.95    -42.54   37.51   19.20
                                   6.03    5.93     5.91     4.37    -6.40    -2.71   -11.72   36.18   17.74    4.91   17.08    5.49    -44.49   28.46   15.06
                                   5.49    0.39     -2.33    4.04    -9.10    -6.48   -13.84   28.69   10.88    4.45   15.80    -2.61   -45.12   26.46   13.32
                                   4.54   -11.59   -10.04    3.55   -12.26   -11.89   -19.87    2.04    2.65    3.08    4.32   -12.24   -47.11    2.29    3.73
                                   3.49   -14.55   -17.01    1.90   -12.26   -15.41   -22.10    1.95    1.35    2.36    4.09   -17.55   -53.14    0.80    1.99
                                   2.80   -15.12   -25.34   -2.58   -30.61   -16.75   -30.28    1.47    0.83    1.34    3.75   -18.38   -53.18    0.19    0.83



                                  1996     1997     1998    1999     2000     2001     2002    2003    2004    2005    2006     2007     2008    2009    2010
                 US Large Cap     22.96   33.36    28.58    21.04    -9.10   -11.89   -22.10   28.69   10.88    4.91   15.80    5.49    -37.00   26.46   15.06
           US Large Cap Value     19.97   33.75    11.95     6.99    -6.40    -2.71   -30.28   36.43   17.74    9.70   21.87   -12.24   -53.14   37.51   20.17
                 US Small Cap     17.43   25.79     -2.33   28.41   -12.26   18.04    -19.87   57.81   19.15    5.61   17.08    -2.61   -38.64   47.02   29.53
           US Small Cap Value     22.36   36.94    -10.04    4.37    -3.08   40.59    -11.72   74.48   27.33    4.45   21.70   -18.38   -44.49   70.19   34.59
                US Real Estate    37.05   19.66    -17.01   -2.58   31.04    12.35     3.58    36.18   33.16   13.82   35.97   -17.55   -39.20   28.46   28.07
  International Large Cap Value   10.23    0.39    23.11    33.01    4.01    -15.41   -13.84   69.18   30.58   15.10   32.99    6.35    -45.12   51.48   13.32
        International Small Cap    2.80   -14.55   10.24    30.16   -12.26   -16.75    -2.85   60.25   32.11   22.63   26.32    8.04    -47.11   44.83   20.79
  International Small Cap Value    3.49   -15.12    9.69    21.51    -2.01    -6.48    3.82    66.79   35.14   24.13   27.54    6.24    -42.54   47.81   19.30
             Emerging Markets      6.03   -11.59   -25.34   66.41   -30.61    -2.37    -6.00   56.28   25.95   34.54   32.59   39.78    -53.18   79.02   19.20
            One-Year US Fixed      5.49    5.93     5.91     4.04    7.33     7.28     3.39     1.47    0.83    2.36    4.32    5.95     4.75     0.80    0.83
Five-Year US Government Fixed      4.54    7.12     7.75     1.90    8.96     8.44     7.62     2.04    1.35    1.34    3.75    8.16     8.83     0.19    3.73
        Five-Year Global Fixed     7.67    7.27     8.41     3.55    8.28     6.44     5.11     1.95    2.65    3.08    4.09    6.31     6.60     2.29    1.99




      Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage An Academically Sound Portfolio
Why Diversification Matters
                                  1996     1997     1998    1999     2000     2001     2002    2003    2004    2005    2006     2007     2008    2009    2010
                                  37.05   36.94    28.58    66.41   31.04    40.59     7.62    74.48   35.14   34.54   35.97   39.78     8.83    79.02   34.59
                                  22.96   33.75    23.11    33.01    8.96    18.04     5.11    69.18   33.16   24.13   32.99    8.16     6.60    70.19   29.53
                                  22.36   33.36    11.95    30.16    8.28    12.35     3.82    66.79   32.11   22.63   32.59    8.04     4.75    51.48   28.07
                                  19.97   25.79    10.24    28.41    7.33     8.44     3.58    60.25   30.58   15.10   27.54    6.35    -37.00   47.81   20.79
                                  17.43   19.66     9.69    21.51    4.01     7.28     3.39    57.81   27.33   13.82   26.32    6.31    -38.64   47.02   20.17
                                  10.23    7.27     8.41    21.04    -2.01    6.44     -2.85   56.28   25.95    9.70   21.87    6.24    -39.20   44.83   19.30
                                   7.67    7.12     7.75     6.99    -3.08    -2.37    -6.00   36.43   19.15    5.61   21.70    5.95    -42.54   37.51   19.20
                                   6.03    5.93     5.91     4.37    -6.40    -2.71   -11.72   36.18   17.74    4.91   17.08    5.49    -44.49   28.46   15.06
                                   5.49    0.39     -2.33    4.04    -9.10    -6.48   -13.84   28.69   10.88    4.45   15.80    -2.61   -45.12   26.46   13.32
                                   4.54   -11.59   -10.04    3.55   -12.26   -11.89   -19.87    2.04    2.65    3.08    4.32   -12.24   -47.11    2.29    3.73
                                   3.49   -14.55   -17.01    1.90   -12.26   -15.41   -22.10    1.95    1.35    2.36    4.09   -17.55   -53.14    0.80    1.99
                                   2.80   -15.12   -25.34   -2.58   -30.61   -16.75   -30.28    1.47    0.83    1.34    3.75   -18.38   -53.18    0.19    0.83



                                  1996     1997     1998    1999     2000     2001     2002    2003    2004    2005    2006     2007     2008    2009    2010
                 US Large Cap     22.96   33.36    28.58    21.04    -9.10   -11.89   -22.10   28.69   10.88    4.91   15.80    5.49    -37.00   26.46   15.06
           US Large Cap Value     19.97   33.75    11.95     6.99    -6.40    -2.71   -30.28   36.43   17.74    9.70   21.87   -12.24   -53.14   37.51   20.17
                 US Small Cap     17.43   25.79     -2.33   28.41   -12.26   18.04    -19.87   57.81   19.15    5.61   17.08    -2.61   -38.64   47.02   29.53
           US Small Cap Value     22.36   36.94    -10.04    4.37    -3.08   40.59    -11.72   74.48   27.33    4.45   21.70   -18.38   -44.49   70.19   34.59
                US Real Estate    37.05   19.66    -17.01   -2.58   31.04    12.35     3.58    36.18   33.16   13.82   35.97   -17.55   -39.20   28.46   28.07
  International Large Cap Value   10.23    0.39    23.11    33.01    4.01    -15.41   -13.84   69.18   30.58   15.10   32.99    6.35    -45.12   51.48   13.32
        International Small Cap    2.80   -14.55   10.24    30.16   -12.26   -16.75    -2.85   60.25   32.11   22.63   26.32    8.04    -47.11   44.83   20.79
  International Small Cap Value    3.49   -15.12    9.69    21.51    -2.01    -6.48    3.82    66.79   35.14   24.13   27.54    6.24    -42.54   47.81   19.30
             Emerging Markets      6.03   -11.59   -25.34   66.41   -30.61    -2.37    -6.00   56.28   25.95   34.54   32.59   39.78    -53.18   79.02   19.20
            One-Year US Fixed      5.49    5.93     5.91     4.04    7.33     7.28     3.39     1.47    0.83    2.36    4.32    5.95     4.75     0.80    0.83
Five-Year US Government Fixed      4.54    7.12     7.75     1.90    8.96     8.44     7.62     2.04    1.35    1.34    3.75    8.16     8.83     0.19    3.73
        Five-Year Global Fixed     7.67    7.27     8.41     3.55    8.28     6.44     5.11     1.95    2.65    3.08    4.09    6.31     6.60     2.29    1.99




      Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage An Academically Sound Portfolio
Critical Factors 3 & 4:
     Fees, Expenses and Taxes


                                              Risk

           Hidden Expenses, Excessive Fees,
                 Unnecessary Taxes
           Can Quickly Eat Up Your Profits.




See How Our Methodology Can Retain Wealth
Average Asset Management Fees
                                                                        60



  Domestic Mutual Fund Expense Ratios                                         International Mutual Fund Expense Ratios


                                     5x
                                                                                  1.64%
                                                                                                               3x

                                                                                                       1.08%
                                                                                                               1.01%




                                                                                                                               0.33%




Average of Weighted Average, Average of   Weighted Average,                   Average of Weighted Average, Average of       Weighted Average,
All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets                 All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds     Based on Fund Assets

            Active                             Passive                                        Active                     Passive



  Mutual fund expense ratios as of April 9, 2010. Asset weighting based on net assets as of
        December 31, 2008. Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
  Passive funds are those coded by Morningstar as Index Funds.
Erosion Of Wealth
                                    61


Disclosed Fees
                   Asset Management Fees            1.25%
                   Administration Fees               .20%
                   Loads and Surrender Charges    3-10 Years
                   Wrap Fees and Commissions         2-3%
                   Advisor Fees                     1.25%
Undisclosed Fees
                   Trading Costs                    1.44%
                   Bid/Ask Spread                    1-2%
                   Turnover                          80%
                   Tax Impact over 20 years      50% of Growth
To Recover the Costs of Active Management . . .
                              62


  How Much Better Must You Do ?
  Assumptions:
     If Turnover is:                80%
     Trading Costs                = 1.14%    Hidden
     Bid/Ask Premium              = 1.60%    Hidden
     Active Management Fee        = 1.00%   Disclosed
     Advisor Compensation         = 1.00%   Disclosed



                 4.74%
What is the IMPACT of Taxes on $1.00?
                            63



                    Tax Free After Tax    Retained
          10%
                    Growth Growth          Growth


         20 Years      $6.73      $3.52     52%

         30 Years     $17.45      $6.61     38%

         50 Years    $117.39     $23.31     20%

 Lack of Tax Protection is HAZARDOUS to your WEALTH
Critical Factors You Can Control

                              Wealth
                     Active   Teams
 Asset Management
 Fee (Wt. average)   1.06%     .31%

  Bid/Ask Spread
                     1.44%     .14%

      Taxes
                     83%       10%

    Advisor Fee
                     1.00%    .50%

      TOTAL
                     4.33%    1.05%
How Active Management
   Compares to Wealth Teams

               BENCHMARK           ACTIVE          WEALTH
                                                   TEAMS


 Volatility                       Risk usually
               Align Risk and                     Align Risk And
                                  higher than
                   Return                             Return
                                expected return

  Portfolio
               Proper Market
Construction                     Large Growth     Size and Value
                 Allocation

 Fees and      Low Turnover     High Turnover     Low Turnover
 Expenses      Low Asset Mgt    5x higher Asset   Low Asset Mgt
                   Fees             Mgt Fee            Fee

   Taxes       Buy and Hold
                                Ordinary Income       LTCG
                  LTCG
The Wealth Teams Process
                       66




1. Complete Risk Tolerance Questionnaire
2. Examine Current Investment Policy
   Statement
3. Define the COST of the RISK you are buying
4. Identify Risk Reduction Opportunities
5. Determine Proper Portfolio Construction
6. Review Cost of Professional Management
7. Decide on Best Course of Action
Who is Dimensional Fund Advisors?
                67
There is a cost to inaction …

Let WEALTH TEAMS Help You Build and Retain Wealth
     By Reducing Your Expenses, Fees and Taxes

                                     68


                         GUY E. BAKER, MBA
       CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER (CFP) ● MASTERS IN FINANCIAL SERVICES (MSFS)



                        email: guy@Wealth-Teams.com
                        http://www.Wealth-Teams.com

                         15520 Rockfield Blvd., Suite G
                            Irvine, California 92618
                              Phone:949 900-0099
                             Toll free 888 282-3344
                               FAX 949 900-0096

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Wealth Teams Primer

  • 1. Build Wealth … Reduce Risk Critical Factors to Reduce Volatility and Maximize Value By Guy E. Baker CFP, MSFS, ChFC, MBA Phone 949 900-0099 ● Toll free 877 282-7658 ● www.Wealth-Teams.com
  • 2. Recent Dalbar QAIB Study 2 The AVERAGE Investor Received, Over The Last 20 Years, Less Than 3.4% Return On Investment Compare This To The Overall Market Return Of 10.5%. WHY?
  • 3. Morningstar Returns 10Years ending 2009 3 5.3% 4.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% US Equity International Equity Taxable Bonds Municipal Bonds All Mutual Funds Fund Returns Investor Returns
  • 4. “Wealth comes from knowing what others do NOT know.” Aristotle Onassis 4 Purpose of this Primer To Demonstrate How Our Proven, Effective Models For Buying Markets Instead Of Stocks, Coupled With The FOUR Critical Factors Can Build Your Wealth … 1. Reduce Volatility 2. Optimize Portfolio Construction 3. Reduce Expenses and Fees 4. Reduce Taxes
  • 5. There is only one side to the stock market…not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the technical phases. Jesse Livermore–Successfulinvestor duringtheDepression 5 Risk vs.Return What are the Building Blocks of Wealth? Risk Knowledge is the Cornerstone to Success
  • 6. There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate - when he can’tafford itand when he can.” - Mark Twain 6 Risk Critical Factor #1: VOLATILITY Volatility Forces Bad Decisions It Destroys Portfolio Value Unless You Capture The Bounce! Let Us Show You How To Make Volatility Work For You.
  • 7. Why Managing Volatility is Important!!! 7 Can You Answer This Problem? - 50% Down Up + 50% Are you Even?
  • 8. Understanding Internal Rate of Return 8 What is the AVERAGE? - 50% Down + Up + 50% ((-50% +50%)/ 2) =0%
  • 9. Understanding Internal Rate of Return 9 What is the REAL RATE OF RETURN? - 50% Down X Up = -25% Down (-50% x 50%) =-25%
  • 10. The Mathematics of Volatility 10 350% Down Up 300% 5% 5.26% 10% 11.11% 250% 20% 25.00% 200% 30% 42.86% 150% 40% 66.67% 50% 100.00% 100% 60% 150.00% 50% 70% 233.33% 0% 75% 300.00% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 75%
  • 11. Capture the Bounce 11 New High High Manage the RED ZONE
  • 12. Efficient Markets Hypothesis 12 • The Market incorporates ALL available information and expectations, IMMEDIATELY • The Market price approximates intrinsic value of the underlying enterprises DAILY • Abrupt changes in Market price are due SOLELY to unforeseen events, such as 9-11. • While “mispricing” does occur, it is not PREDICTABLE . There is no pattern leading to consistent outperformance. Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago
  • 13. Recessionary Period January 2007 - March 2010 13 60% 40% Recession Began December 2007 Unemployment S&P 500 Index Total Return Rate at 5.0% 20% Unemployment Rate at 9.7% March 2010 0% -20% Unemployment Rate at 10.0% November -40% 2009 Recession Announced December 1, 2008 -60% 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 14. Equity Values Change Daily 14 Average
  • 15. Distribution of Market Returns 1949 20.2 1951 20.7 1963 15 21.0 1982 21.0 1970 1944  CRISP 1-10 Index Annual 0.0 1953 1993 21.3 1996 Returns 0.7 11.1 21.4 1960 2004 1983 1.2 12.0 22.0  1926 -2010 1987 1.7 1959 12.1 1979 22.6 1948 1952 1998 1997 2.1 13.4 24.3 31.4 1939 1968 1955 2003 2.9 14.1 25.2 31.6 1947 1965 1999 1985 3.6 14.5 25.3 32.2 1973 1966 1934 2006 1976 1936 63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%) -18.1 -8.7 4.3 15.5 26.8 32.3 1929 1932 1984 1942 1961 1980 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%) -14.6 -8.7 4.5 16.0 26.9 32.8 2000 1940 2007 2064 1938 1927 -11.4 -7.1 5.8 16.1 28.1 33.4 2001 1990 2005 1971 1943 1991 -11.1 -6.0 6.2 16.2 28.4 34.7 1969 1946 1978 1986 1967 1995 -10.9 -5.9 7.5 16.2 28.7 36.8 1930 1962 1977 1956 1972 2009 1945 1935 -26.5 -10.2 -4.3 8.3 16.8 28.8 38.1 44.3 2008 1974 1957 1981 1926 1988 1989 1975 1958 -36.7 -27.0 -10.1 -3.6 9.2 18.0 28.9 38.8 45.0 1931 1937 2002 1941 1994 1992 2010 1950 1928 1954 1933 -43.5 -34.7 -21.1 -10.0 -0.1 9.8 17.9 29.6 38.9 50.0 57.1 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to -10% 10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% Annual Return Range
  • 16. Distribution of Market Returns 1949 20.2 1951 20.7 1963 16 21.0 1982 21.0 1970 1944  CRISP 1-10 Index Annual 0.0 1953 1993 21.3 1996 Returns 0.7 11.1 21.4 1960 2004 1983 1.2 12.0 22.0  1926 -2010 1987 1.7 1959 12.1 1979 22.6 1948 1952 1998 1997 2.1 13.4 24.3 31.4 1939 1968 1955 2003 2.9 14.1 25.2 31.6 1947 1965 1999 1985 3.6 14.5 25.3 32.2 1973 1966 1934 2006 1976 1936 63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%) -18.1 -8.7 4.3 15.5 26.8 32.3 1929 1932 1984 1942 1961 1980 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%) -14.6 -8.7 4.5 16.0 26.9 32.8 2000 1940 2007 2064 1938 1927 -11.4 -7.1 5.8 16.1 28.1 33.4 2001 1990 2005 1971 1943 1991 -11.1 -6.0 6.2 16.2 28.4 34.7 1969 1946 1978 1986 1967 1995 -10.9 -5.9 7.5 16.2 28.7 36.8 1930 1962 1977 1956 1972 2009 1945 1935 -26.5 -10.2 -4.3 8.3 16.8 28.8 38.1 44.3 2008 1974 1957 1981 1926 1988 1989 1975 1958 -36.7 -27.0 -10.1 -3.6 9.2 18.0 28.9 38.8 45.0 1931 1937 2002 1941 1994 1992 2010 1950 1928 1954 1933 -43.5 -34.7 -21.1 -10.0 -0.1 9.8 17.9 29.6 38.9 50.0 57.1 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to -10% 10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% Annual Return Range
  • 17. Distribution of Market Returns 1949 20.2 1951 20.7 1963 17 21.0 1982 21.0 1970 1944  CRISP 1-10 Index Annual 0.0 1953 1993 21.3 1996 Returns 0.7 11.1 21.4 1960 2004 1983 1.2 12.0 22.0  1926 -2010 1987 1.7 1959 12.1 1979 22.6 1948 1952 1998 1997 2.1 13.4 24.3 31.4 1939 1968 1955 2003 2.9 14.1 25.2 31.6 1947 1965 1999 1985 3.6 14.5 25.3 32.2 1973 1966 1934 2006 1976 1936 63 POSITIVE YEARS (74%) -18.1 -8.7 4.3 15.5 26.8 32.3 1929 1932 1984 1942 1961 1980 22 NEGATIVE YEARS (26%) -14.6 -8.7 4.5 16.0 26.9 32.8 2000 1940 2007 2064 1938 1927 -11.4 -7.1 5.8 16.1 28.1 33.4 2001 1990 2005 1971 1943 1991 -11.1 -6.0 6.2 16.2 28.4 34.7 1969 1946 1978 1986 1967 1995 -10.9 -5.9 7.5 16.2 28.7 36.8 1930 1962 1977 1956 1972 2009 1945 1935 -26.5 -10.2 -4.3 8.3 16.8 28.8 38.1 44.3 2008 1974 1957 1981 1926 1988 1989 1975 1958 -36.7 -27.0 -10.1 -3.6 9.2 18.0 28.9 38.8 45.0 1931 1937 2002 1941 1994 1992 2010 1950 1928 1954 1933 -43.5 -34.7 -21.1 -10.0 -0.1 9.8 17.9 29.6 38.9 50.0 57.1 -50% to -40% -40% to -30% -30% to -20% -20% to -10% -10% to 0% 0% to -10% 10% to 20% 20% to -30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% Annual Return Range
  • 18. Long Term Dangers of Market Timing 18 Hypothetical value of $1 invested from 1926-2010 $3,000 $2,577 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $ 500 $18.85 $20 Stocks Total Market Treasuries minus the BEST 34 months
  • 19. Academics of Volatility 19  In finance, volatility refers to the standard deviation of a continuum of returns within a specific time period. It is used to quantify the amount of variability associated with the financial instrument over this period. 10.7% Average ROI • Volatility is described in -1 σ =-8.4% +1 σ =29.8% annualized terms and is expressed as a fraction of the average . (mean eg. +/- 19.1%). σ = 19.1% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
  • 20. How Volatility Impacts Return 20 Portfolio A Portfolio B Year Return Year Return 1 10% 1 20% 2 10% 2 -5% 3 10% Compare 3 -10% 4 10% 4 20% 5 10% 5 25% Ave ROI 10.00% Ave ROI 10.00% IRR 10.00% IRR 9.01%
  • 21. Why Volatility Matters! 21 Portfolio A Portfolio B Year Return Results Year Return Results $ 100,000 $ 100,000 1 10% $ 110,000 1 20% $ 120,000 2 10% $ 121,000 2 -5% $ 114,000 3 10% $ 133,100 3 -10% $ 102,600 4 10% $ 146,410 4 20% $ 123,120 5 10% $ 161,051 5 25% $ 153,900 Ave ROI 10.00% Ave ROI 10.00% IRR 10.00% IRR 9.01%
  • 22. Measuring Risk - What is Volatility? 22 How far From the Mean? +10% Average -15% Average 2/3rds of all 2/3rds of all Negative Positive Returns Returns How far From the Mean? -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
  • 23. So, Which Graph Depicts Less Risk? 23 Normal 11.4% Average ROI +1 σ =23.8% -1 σ =-1.1% 11.4% Average ROI σ = 12.4% σ = 6.4% σ = 16.4% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% σ = 5% σ = 5.4% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
  • 24. What’s the REAL Rate of Return? 24 Bill’s Ted’s 1 25% 1 14% 2 25% 2 15% 3 25% 3 13% 4 25% 4 16% 5 -30% 5 4% 14.00% Average Return 12.40%
  • 25. What’s the INTERNAL Rate of Return? 25 Bill’s Ted’s 1 25% 1 14% 2 25% 2 15% 3 25% 3 13% 4 25% 4 16% 5 -30% 5 4% 11.31% IRR 12.34%
  • 26. Sequence Risk 26 Portfolio A Portfolio B Year Return Year Return Which 1 -10% 1 20% 2 -5% Return 2 25% 3 20% Was 3 20% 4 25% 4 -10% 5 20% Higher? 5 -5% Average 10% Average 10%
  • 27. Sequence Risk 27 Portfolio A Portfolio B Year Return Results Year Return Results $ 10,000 $ 10,000 1 -10% $ 9,000 There is 1 20% $ 12,000 2 25% $ 15,000 2 -5% $ 8,550 no 3 20% $ 18,000 3 20% $ 10,260 4 25% $ 12,825 difference! 4 -10% $ 16,200 5 20% $ 15,390 5 -5% $ 15,390 Average 10% Average 10%
  • 28. Capture The 50% Bounce 28 New High Variance Differential Old High Manage the Red Zone Volatility Can Help You Build Wealth! Let Us Help You Capture The BOUNCE!
  • 29. How Much Risk Are You Buying? 29 Every Portfolio has risk!  How much risk have you purchased? How can you tell?  First, Calibrate the asset class distribution  Use Benchmarks to determine Historical Expected Return  Compare to volatility Index to your current portfolio Volatility Can Build Wealth For You
  • 30. Critical Factor #2: Portfolio Construction 30 Risk Portfolio Construction Is Like Building A Home … Do Your Homework, Plan Well & You’ll Live Happily Ever After! Learn How To Build A Successful Portfolio
  • 31. The 1986 Brinson Study 31 Only 6.4% is attributable to being in the right specific investment at the right time. Gary Brinson 93.6% is attributable to Asset Allocation … being in the right type of investment at the right time.
  • 32. Is Allocation MORE Importantthan Stock Picking? 32  Warren E. Buffett –  “Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.”  Peter Lynch –  “All the time and effort people devote to picking the right fund, the hot hand, the great manager, have in most cases led to no advantage.”
  • 33. The Academics of Passive Investing 33 Merton Miller Harry Markowitz William Sharpe Nobel Prize 1990 EconomicSciences
  • 34. The Three Factor Model 34 Structure Determine Performance -Over 96% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure -This leaves less than 4% of the variation to explain -After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating Average Average Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity Random Expected = Excess + to Markets + to Size + to BtM + Error Return Return Priced Risk Unpriced Risk Positive Expected Return Zero Expected Return Systematic Noise Economic Random Long Term Short Term Investing Speculating
  • 35. How to Construct a Portfolio? 35 Four Typical Asset Classes: Cash Stocks or Equities Bonds or Debt Real Estate Specialty Asset Classes: Commodities Precious Metals Currencies Fine Art Collectables Utilities
  • 36. Efficient Frontier 36 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
  • 37. Total Market Return--1926-2011 37 $10,000 $2,749 $1,000 $100 $10 $1 7/1/1926 11/1/1934 3/1/1943 7/1/1951 11/1/1959 3/1/1968 7/1/1976 11/1/1984 3/1/1993 7/1/2001 11/1/2009 $0
  • 38. S&P 500 Return--1926-2011 38 $10,000 S&P 500: $3,249 $1,000 Total Market: $2,749 $100 $10 $1 7/1/1926 11/1/1934 3/1/1943 7/1/1951 11/1/1959 3/1/1968 7/1/1976 11/1/1984 3/1/1993 7/1/2001 11/1/2009 $0
  • 39. The Three Factor Model 39 Structure Determine Performance -Over 96% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure -This leaves less than 4% of the variation to explain -After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating Average Average Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity Random Expected = Excess + to Markets + to Size Size + to BtM + Error Return Return Priced Risk Unpriced Risk Positive Expected Return Zero Expected Return Systematic Noise Economic Random Long Term Short Term Investing Speculating
  • 40. Portfolio Construction - Capitalization 40 Capitalization measures the relative size of the enterprise. Stock X Outstanding Price Shares Company Price Shares Capitalization Microsoft $27.90 8.56bil $238.72 bil Intel $21.46 5.58 bil $119.7 bil Gn’l Motors $34.00 1.5 bil $51 bil
  • 41. Portfolio Construction 41 Capitalization 1 2 3 Force Rank the value 4 5 of all 7,800 Publically . . . Traded Stocks . . . . . . 7,800
  • 42. Portfolio Construction 42 Capitalization 1 2 3 LARGE 4 5 . The Median divides the Median . . Largest from the . . Smallest . . SMALL . . 7,800
  • 43. The Three Factor Model 43 Structure Determine Performance -Over 96% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure -This leaves less than 4% of the variation to explain -After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns The Model tells the Difference Between Investing and Speculating Average Average Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity Sensitivity Random Expected = Excess + to Markets + to Size + to BtM To BtM + Error Return Return Priced Risk Unpriced Risk Positive Expected Return Zero Expected Return Systematic Noise Economic Random Long Term Short Term Investing Speculating
  • 44. What is the Book to Market Ratio? 44 Book Value or Liquidation Value Capitalization Value If Book Value is low – then it is a GROWTH Stock If Book Value is HIGH – the it is a VALUE Stock
  • 45. Rerank Stocks Based on BtM 45 Ranked by BtM 1 Growth 2 3 4 5 . LARGE . CAP . . . Value . Median
  • 46. Book to Capitalization Market Portfolio Construction 46 1 1 2 2 GROWTH 3 3 Median LARGE 4 4 5 5 CAP . . . . VALUE . Median . 3,900 . . 1 . 2 GROWTH . . 3 Median SMALL . 4 CAP . 5 . . . . VALUE 7,800 3,900
  • 48. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011 48 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE σ=18.8% σ=26.2% $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE σ=28.3% σ=30.1%
  • 49. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011 49 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE $1,801 σ=18.8% $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE
  • 50. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011 50 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE $1,801 $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE $1,523 σ=28.3%
  • 51. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2010 51 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE $1,801 $4,800 σ=26.2% $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE $1,523
  • 52. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011 52 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE $1,801 $4,800 $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE $1,523
  • 53. Growth of $1 from 1926 to 2011 53 LARGE GROWTH LARGE VALUE $1,801 $4,800 $2,749 Total Market Return σ =18.75% SMALL GROWTH SMALL VALUE $1,523 $59,341 σ=30.1%
  • 54. Portfolio Re-Construction 54 A B A + B + C + D = 100% C D Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage A Risk Efficient Portfolio
  • 55. If You Were Going To Ride To The TOP of This Building? 55
  • 56. Which Elevator Feels Safer? 56
  • 57. Why Diversification Matters 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 37.05 36.94 28.58 66.41 31.04 40.59 7.62 74.48 35.14 34.54 35.97 39.78 8.83 79.02 34.59 22.96 33.75 23.11 33.01 8.96 18.04 5.11 69.18 33.16 24.13 32.99 8.16 6.60 70.19 29.53 22.36 33.36 11.95 30.16 8.28 12.35 3.82 66.79 32.11 22.63 32.59 8.04 4.75 51.48 28.07 19.97 25.79 10.24 28.41 7.33 8.44 3.58 60.25 30.58 15.10 27.54 6.35 -37.00 47.81 20.79 17.43 19.66 9.69 21.51 4.01 7.28 3.39 57.81 27.33 13.82 26.32 6.31 -38.64 47.02 20.17 10.23 7.27 8.41 21.04 -2.01 6.44 -2.85 56.28 25.95 9.70 21.87 6.24 -39.20 44.83 19.30 7.67 7.12 7.75 6.99 -3.08 -2.37 -6.00 36.43 19.15 5.61 21.70 5.95 -42.54 37.51 19.20 6.03 5.93 5.91 4.37 -6.40 -2.71 -11.72 36.18 17.74 4.91 17.08 5.49 -44.49 28.46 15.06 5.49 0.39 -2.33 4.04 -9.10 -6.48 -13.84 28.69 10.88 4.45 15.80 -2.61 -45.12 26.46 13.32 4.54 -11.59 -10.04 3.55 -12.26 -11.89 -19.87 2.04 2.65 3.08 4.32 -12.24 -47.11 2.29 3.73 3.49 -14.55 -17.01 1.90 -12.26 -15.41 -22.10 1.95 1.35 2.36 4.09 -17.55 -53.14 0.80 1.99 2.80 -15.12 -25.34 -2.58 -30.61 -16.75 -30.28 1.47 0.83 1.34 3.75 -18.38 -53.18 0.19 0.83 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 US Large Cap 22.96 33.36 28.58 21.04 -9.10 -11.89 -22.10 28.69 10.88 4.91 15.80 5.49 -37.00 26.46 15.06 US Large Cap Value 19.97 33.75 11.95 6.99 -6.40 -2.71 -30.28 36.43 17.74 9.70 21.87 -12.24 -53.14 37.51 20.17 US Small Cap 17.43 25.79 -2.33 28.41 -12.26 18.04 -19.87 57.81 19.15 5.61 17.08 -2.61 -38.64 47.02 29.53 US Small Cap Value 22.36 36.94 -10.04 4.37 -3.08 40.59 -11.72 74.48 27.33 4.45 21.70 -18.38 -44.49 70.19 34.59 US Real Estate 37.05 19.66 -17.01 -2.58 31.04 12.35 3.58 36.18 33.16 13.82 35.97 -17.55 -39.20 28.46 28.07 International Large Cap Value 10.23 0.39 23.11 33.01 4.01 -15.41 -13.84 69.18 30.58 15.10 32.99 6.35 -45.12 51.48 13.32 International Small Cap 2.80 -14.55 10.24 30.16 -12.26 -16.75 -2.85 60.25 32.11 22.63 26.32 8.04 -47.11 44.83 20.79 International Small Cap Value 3.49 -15.12 9.69 21.51 -2.01 -6.48 3.82 66.79 35.14 24.13 27.54 6.24 -42.54 47.81 19.30 Emerging Markets 6.03 -11.59 -25.34 66.41 -30.61 -2.37 -6.00 56.28 25.95 34.54 32.59 39.78 -53.18 79.02 19.20 One-Year US Fixed 5.49 5.93 5.91 4.04 7.33 7.28 3.39 1.47 0.83 2.36 4.32 5.95 4.75 0.80 0.83 Five-Year US Government Fixed 4.54 7.12 7.75 1.90 8.96 8.44 7.62 2.04 1.35 1.34 3.75 8.16 8.83 0.19 3.73 Five-Year Global Fixed 7.67 7.27 8.41 3.55 8.28 6.44 5.11 1.95 2.65 3.08 4.09 6.31 6.60 2.29 1.99 Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage An Academically Sound Portfolio
  • 58. Why Diversification Matters 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 37.05 36.94 28.58 66.41 31.04 40.59 7.62 74.48 35.14 34.54 35.97 39.78 8.83 79.02 34.59 22.96 33.75 23.11 33.01 8.96 18.04 5.11 69.18 33.16 24.13 32.99 8.16 6.60 70.19 29.53 22.36 33.36 11.95 30.16 8.28 12.35 3.82 66.79 32.11 22.63 32.59 8.04 4.75 51.48 28.07 19.97 25.79 10.24 28.41 7.33 8.44 3.58 60.25 30.58 15.10 27.54 6.35 -37.00 47.81 20.79 17.43 19.66 9.69 21.51 4.01 7.28 3.39 57.81 27.33 13.82 26.32 6.31 -38.64 47.02 20.17 10.23 7.27 8.41 21.04 -2.01 6.44 -2.85 56.28 25.95 9.70 21.87 6.24 -39.20 44.83 19.30 7.67 7.12 7.75 6.99 -3.08 -2.37 -6.00 36.43 19.15 5.61 21.70 5.95 -42.54 37.51 19.20 6.03 5.93 5.91 4.37 -6.40 -2.71 -11.72 36.18 17.74 4.91 17.08 5.49 -44.49 28.46 15.06 5.49 0.39 -2.33 4.04 -9.10 -6.48 -13.84 28.69 10.88 4.45 15.80 -2.61 -45.12 26.46 13.32 4.54 -11.59 -10.04 3.55 -12.26 -11.89 -19.87 2.04 2.65 3.08 4.32 -12.24 -47.11 2.29 3.73 3.49 -14.55 -17.01 1.90 -12.26 -15.41 -22.10 1.95 1.35 2.36 4.09 -17.55 -53.14 0.80 1.99 2.80 -15.12 -25.34 -2.58 -30.61 -16.75 -30.28 1.47 0.83 1.34 3.75 -18.38 -53.18 0.19 0.83 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 US Large Cap 22.96 33.36 28.58 21.04 -9.10 -11.89 -22.10 28.69 10.88 4.91 15.80 5.49 -37.00 26.46 15.06 US Large Cap Value 19.97 33.75 11.95 6.99 -6.40 -2.71 -30.28 36.43 17.74 9.70 21.87 -12.24 -53.14 37.51 20.17 US Small Cap 17.43 25.79 -2.33 28.41 -12.26 18.04 -19.87 57.81 19.15 5.61 17.08 -2.61 -38.64 47.02 29.53 US Small Cap Value 22.36 36.94 -10.04 4.37 -3.08 40.59 -11.72 74.48 27.33 4.45 21.70 -18.38 -44.49 70.19 34.59 US Real Estate 37.05 19.66 -17.01 -2.58 31.04 12.35 3.58 36.18 33.16 13.82 35.97 -17.55 -39.20 28.46 28.07 International Large Cap Value 10.23 0.39 23.11 33.01 4.01 -15.41 -13.84 69.18 30.58 15.10 32.99 6.35 -45.12 51.48 13.32 International Small Cap 2.80 -14.55 10.24 30.16 -12.26 -16.75 -2.85 60.25 32.11 22.63 26.32 8.04 -47.11 44.83 20.79 International Small Cap Value 3.49 -15.12 9.69 21.51 -2.01 -6.48 3.82 66.79 35.14 24.13 27.54 6.24 -42.54 47.81 19.30 Emerging Markets 6.03 -11.59 -25.34 66.41 -30.61 -2.37 -6.00 56.28 25.95 34.54 32.59 39.78 -53.18 79.02 19.20 One-Year US Fixed 5.49 5.93 5.91 4.04 7.33 7.28 3.39 1.47 0.83 2.36 4.32 5.95 4.75 0.80 0.83 Five-Year US Government Fixed 4.54 7.12 7.75 1.90 8.96 8.44 7.62 2.04 1.35 1.34 3.75 8.16 8.83 0.19 3.73 Five-Year Global Fixed 7.67 7.27 8.41 3.55 8.28 6.44 5.11 1.95 2.65 3.08 4.09 6.31 6.60 2.29 1.99 Let Us Help You Design, Build And Manage An Academically Sound Portfolio
  • 59. Critical Factors 3 & 4: Fees, Expenses and Taxes Risk Hidden Expenses, Excessive Fees, Unnecessary Taxes Can Quickly Eat Up Your Profits. See How Our Methodology Can Retain Wealth
  • 60. Average Asset Management Fees 60 Domestic Mutual Fund Expense Ratios International Mutual Fund Expense Ratios 5x 1.64% 3x 1.08% 1.01% 0.33% Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, Average of Weighted Average, All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets All Funds Based on Fund Assets Active Passive Active Passive Mutual fund expense ratios as of April 9, 2010. Asset weighting based on net assets as of December 31, 2008. Data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Passive funds are those coded by Morningstar as Index Funds.
  • 61. Erosion Of Wealth 61 Disclosed Fees Asset Management Fees 1.25% Administration Fees .20% Loads and Surrender Charges 3-10 Years Wrap Fees and Commissions 2-3% Advisor Fees 1.25% Undisclosed Fees Trading Costs 1.44% Bid/Ask Spread 1-2% Turnover 80% Tax Impact over 20 years 50% of Growth
  • 62. To Recover the Costs of Active Management . . . 62 How Much Better Must You Do ?  Assumptions:  If Turnover is: 80%  Trading Costs = 1.14% Hidden  Bid/Ask Premium = 1.60% Hidden  Active Management Fee = 1.00% Disclosed  Advisor Compensation = 1.00% Disclosed 4.74%
  • 63. What is the IMPACT of Taxes on $1.00? 63 Tax Free After Tax Retained 10% Growth Growth Growth 20 Years $6.73 $3.52 52% 30 Years $17.45 $6.61 38% 50 Years $117.39 $23.31 20% Lack of Tax Protection is HAZARDOUS to your WEALTH
  • 64. Critical Factors You Can Control Wealth Active Teams Asset Management Fee (Wt. average) 1.06% .31% Bid/Ask Spread 1.44% .14% Taxes 83% 10% Advisor Fee 1.00% .50% TOTAL 4.33% 1.05%
  • 65. How Active Management Compares to Wealth Teams BENCHMARK ACTIVE WEALTH TEAMS Volatility Risk usually Align Risk and Align Risk And higher than Return Return expected return Portfolio Proper Market Construction Large Growth Size and Value Allocation Fees and Low Turnover High Turnover Low Turnover Expenses Low Asset Mgt 5x higher Asset Low Asset Mgt Fees Mgt Fee Fee Taxes Buy and Hold Ordinary Income LTCG LTCG
  • 66. The Wealth Teams Process 66 1. Complete Risk Tolerance Questionnaire 2. Examine Current Investment Policy Statement 3. Define the COST of the RISK you are buying 4. Identify Risk Reduction Opportunities 5. Determine Proper Portfolio Construction 6. Review Cost of Professional Management 7. Decide on Best Course of Action
  • 67. Who is Dimensional Fund Advisors? 67
  • 68. There is a cost to inaction … Let WEALTH TEAMS Help You Build and Retain Wealth By Reducing Your Expenses, Fees and Taxes 68 GUY E. BAKER, MBA CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER (CFP) ● MASTERS IN FINANCIAL SERVICES (MSFS) email: guy@Wealth-Teams.com http://www.Wealth-Teams.com 15520 Rockfield Blvd., Suite G Irvine, California 92618 Phone:949 900-0099 Toll free 888 282-3344 FAX 949 900-0096