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LanniC_EGU2010
1.
Understanding
hydrological processes to improve the landslide model prediction Cristiano Lanni University of Trento Jeff McDonnell, OSU Riccardo Rigon, UoT
2.
Outline
1 HS11.7 1. Mapping shallow landslide using hydrological model: the state of the art 2. The role of bedrock surface on subsurface water-flow dynamics: the PANOLA TRENCH HILLSLOPE 3. Is DWI able to follow surface topography ? 4. Looking to improve the performance of the simpler hydrological models © Oregon State Trento University of University
3.
2
HS11.7 SIMPLE HYDROLOGICAL MODELS COMPLEX HYDROLOGICAL MODELS 1D – i.e. TRIGRS (Baum et al.,2002) a) C o n s i d e r s t h e s t e a d y - s t a t e ∂ψ ∂θ ∂ ∂ψ = K (ψ ) −1 hydrological condition ∂t ∂ψ ∂z ∂z b) Does not take into account the 3D – i.e. GEOtop (Rigon et al.,2006), shear-strength in unsaturated soil HYDRUS-3D € ∂ψ ∂θ ∂ ∂ψ ∂x 3 = K x (ψ ) + ∂t ∂ψ ∂x i i ∂x i ∂x i € INFINITE SLOPE STABILITY MODEL (accounting for unsaturated zone) © Oregon State Trento University of University
4.
The role of
bedrock shape: Panola Trench Hillsope 3 HS11.7 Bedrock High soil-depth variability Ground Flow direction Bedrock © Oregon State Trento University of University depression
5.
4
HS11.7 Geometry α = 13° α = 20° α = 30° PANOLA13 PANOLA20 PANOLA30 Soil (sandy-silt) Ksat = 10-4 m/s Bedrock Ksat = 10-7 m/s Triggering Factor Intensity = 6.5 mm/h Duration = 9 hours © Oregon State Trento University of University
6.
5
HS11.7 Panola13 t=6h sat=3% t=7h sat=18% t=9h sat=43% Saturated area at the soil- bedrock interface increases very rapidly © Oregon State Trento University of University t=14h
7.
6
HS11.7 time t=1h t=4h t=12h .. ….… Downslope Drainage efficiency α = 13° .. ….… α = 20° .. ….… α = 30° © Oregon State Trento University of University
8.
before proceeding further….
HS11.7 Lanni et al. 2010 (submitted to WRR) 1D No role played by hillslope gradient 3D Significantly affected by hillslope gradient © Oregon State Trento University of University
9.
Moving to hillslope
stability…. HS11.7 FACTOR OF SAFETY MECHANICAL PROPERTIES Panola30 c’ = 0 kPa φ’ = 30° (FS=1) (1<FS<1.05) © Oregon State Trento University of University t=10h
10.
+5.0% +12.0%
9 HS11.7 +1.4% +11.0% t=0h t=6h t=7h t=8h +6.2% +14.2% +11.2% +26.2% t=9h Bedrock depression determines the threshold effect © Oregon State Trento University of University t=10h
11.
10
HS11.7 Hjerdt et al., 2004 WRR € © Oregon State Trento University of University
12.
11
HS11.7 Maximum pore pressure © Oregon State Trento University of University
13.
12
HS11.7 © Oregon State Trento University of University
14.
12
HS11.7 N 1 N ∑( ( ) )( ψ i − ψ ⋅ DWI ( i) − DWI ) cor(ψ ,DWI ) = i=1 var(ψ )⋅ var(DWI ) € INVERSE correlation DIRECT cor(ψ (t = 3h),Z) = −0.9 between SOIL-THICK correlation and PRESSURE HEAD in between DWI € the I stage of rain- and PRESSURE infiltration HEAD in the II stage of rain- cor(ψ (t = 11h),DWI ) = +0.83 infiltration © Oregon State Trento University of University €
15.
13
HS11.7 Unsaturated soil (vertical recharge) p p h t +1 = h t + Δt i, j i, j θ sat − θ ht ht+1 Saturated soil (vertical recharge + € lateral flow + DWI effect) ΔV = qin – qout + p*[A W(t) = k * qout(t) ΔVi,j = qin – qout + p*[A(i,j)+1-Ai,j] Basin Δt γ ⋅ A 0.5 i, j ki, j = K sat⋅ DWI β −t / ki, j αi, j ( t) = 1− e t ≤ Tp p p h t +1 = h t + + Ai, j⋅ α (t) − A Δt i, j i, j θ sat − θ ai, j⋅ φ i, j ( ) i, j +1 ⋅ α (i, j ) (t) +1 T /k −t / k αi, j ( t) = e p i, j − 1 e i, j t > T p € € € © Oregon State Trento University of University €
16.
14
HS11.7 Unsaturated soil Saturated soil p h t +1 = h t + p p i, j θ sat − θ Δt h t +1 = h t + + Ai, j⋅ α (t) − A Δt i, j i, j i, j θ sat − θ ai, j⋅ φ i, j ( ) i, j +1 ⋅ α (i, j ) (t) +1 € Irregular shape € © Oregon State Trento University of University
17.
14
HS11.7 Unsaturated soil Saturated soil p h t +1 = h t + p p i, j θ sat − θ Δt h t +1 = h t + + Ai, j⋅ α (t) − A Δt i, j i, j i, j θ sat − θ ai, j⋅ φ i, j ( ) i, j +1 ⋅ α (i, j ) (t) +1 € SHALSTAB € NEW SIMPLE MODEL © Oregon State Trento University of University
18.
TAKE HOME MESSAGGES
15 HS11.7 1.a First, vertical rain-infiltration induces the infiltration-front propagation 1.b Then, lateral-flow could “turn on” because of the built-up pore-water pressures at the soil-bedrock interface 1.c Finally, bedrock shape (i.e., spatial soil thickness variability) could affect the flow dynamics, inducing a fast decrease of FS 2. Putting DWI concept in modelling approach and removing S-S assumption it seems possible to improve the prediction performance of the simpler hydrological models 3. Please, take care in the use of SHALSTAB: The hydrological ratio p/T represents a calibration parameter rather than real physical properties …but Montgomery and Dietrich also wrote this in their original paper © Oregon State Trento University of University
19.
Thank you
for your attention! cristiano.lanni@gmail.com
20.
HS11.7
EXTRA SLIDES © Oregon State Trento University of University
21.
Threshold for initiation
of 3 HS11.7 Subsurface water-flow The precipitation threshold for initiation of Subsurface Stormflow seems related to the micro-topography in the bedrock Saturated patched recorded at the soil-bedrock interface are usually a balance between upslope accumulated water and downslope drainage efficiency © Oregon State Trento University of University by Jeff McDonnell and his research team
22.
6
HS11.7 Max pressure head at the SOIL-BEDROCK INTERFACE Unsat Sat α = 13° α = 20° α = 30° © Oregon State Trento University of University Downslope Drainage efficiency
23.
7
HS11.7 Panola13 t=6h sat=3% t=7h sat=18% t=9h sat=43% …..and than the average value of positive pore-water pressure continues to grow © Oregon State Trento University of University t=14h
24.
7
HS11.7 time 1D & 3D mechanism t=1h t=4h t=12h 1. Vertical flow 2. Lateral flow & bedrock obstructions panola13 .. ….… panola20 .. ….… N 2 var(ψ ) = 1 N ∑( ψ ( i) − ψ ) panola30 i=1 .. ….… € © Oregon State Trento University of University
25.
12
HS11.7 Rain 1: Rain 2: Intensity = 6.5 mm/h Intensity = 12 mm/h Duration = 9 hours Duration = 5 hours Rain = 58.5 mm Rain = 60 mm t=10h t=5h FS<1 12.6% FS<1 48.9% © Oregon State Trento University of University
26.
12
HS11.7 SHALSTAB Maximum pore pressure p= 5% I h p A = Z T b sin β © Oregon State University University of Trento
27.
14
HS11.7 SHALSTAB model Water-mass balance in steady state condition Qsup + Qsub = I ⋅ A h ν ⋅ A+K b Z cos β sin β =I⋅A € sat Z h p A € = Z T b sin β T = hydraulic trasmisivity Z = soil-thick € γ h tanφ ' h = water-table thick in steady-state condition FS = 1− w € β = local slope γ Z tan β € A = Upslope contributing area € q = effective rainfall © Oregon State Trento University of University € €
28.
15
HS11.7 € SHALSTAB COMPLEX HYDROLOGICAL MODEL p= 5% I The limitation of water-table grows everywhere steady-state condition “A” determines the Unable to account for water-table thick distribution “topography obstructions” © Oregon State Trento University of University
29.
17
HS11.7 Unsaturated soil Saturated soil p h t +1 = h t + p p i, j θ sat − θ Δt h t +1 = h t + + Ai, j⋅ α (t) − A Δt i, j i, j i, j θ sat − θ ai, j⋅ φ i, j ( ) i, j +1 ⋅ α (i, j ) (t) +1 € Planar shape € © Oregon State Trento University of University
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