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Open source maturity
curve and ecosystems

             Tony Bailetti
Systems and Computer Engineering and
      Sprott School of Business
       Bailetti@sce.carleton.ca

            Eclipse Summit

            October 29, 2009
1. Motivation

 • Increase value from engaging with open source
   projects and vendor-neutral business ecosystems

 • Use ecosystems to solve very different problems


 • Reduce cost and increase speed and flexibility of high
   diversity, multi-player collaboration




                                                            2
                             2
Agenda


 1. Value from open source

 2. Business ecosystem components

 3. Use ecosystems to create and retain tech jobs

 4. Takeaways




                                                    3
                             3
2. Value from engaging with OS project


    Value for
    company
                                                          5. Redefine

                                                 4. Co-create

                                        3. Build new

                               2. Extend
                              what exists
                 1. Use &
                 promote

                Engineering
                                                                           Effort
                                                                Business

  0. Deny
                How company chooses to interact with OS projects
                        determines value it can extract
                                                                              4
                                    4
Authority and effort increase with levels

                   Business
                                   Level 4
                                  Co-create



          Level 1
       Use & promote

                                              Products




        Market


                                                         5
                              5
Value to community



 Value for                                                5. More ecosystem
 company                                                  links & resources

                                              4. Greater commitment to
                                              healthy ecosystem

                                   3. More new applications, greater
                                   project participation & leadership

                       2. More features, better quality


             1. No change in code, more users & awareness


                                                                     Effort

                                                                              6
                                    6
Engagement of 163 Eclipse members

• 65 operate at just one level, 98 operate combinations
• None just Co-creates or Redefines
• 4% just Use & promote                                           14
                                                       22   13

• 67% do not Co-create                            12
                                                                            0
                                         10
                                                                       0
• 10% operate in first four levels
                                                             28

                                                       31         9
• 18% Co-create and do one
  other level                                 6                        16
                                                                   2
• 5% Co-create, Extend what is,
  Build new


                                                                            7
                                     7
Perspectives about Eclipse



 Value for                                           5. ???
 company
                                              4. Concurrently advance
                                              multiple projects & integrate

                                   3. Create & drive adoption of new
                                   applications that use Eclipse platform

                       2. Add features to existing applications


             1. Use to develop or as part of deployment stack


                                                                    Effort

                                                                              8
                                      8
2. Business ecosystem’s 5 key components

                               1. Keystone
  2. Niches collaborate                         3. Customers pay for market
                                 Out of box
     to develop base              platform
                                               offers that rely on base element
         element
                                  Services
                                                             Company N     $
                                  IP regime           .                             Customer
                                                  .                        Mk
                                Base element     .
                                                                          offer
                                                          Company 2   $                          .
                                Governance                                     Customer      .
                                                                                            .
                                                      Company 1     $Mk
                                                                    offer Customer
                                                                   Mk
                                                                  offer


                             X XZ XYZ Z
                                                                  5. Ecosystem health
                            4. Member types                                           • Diversity
                                                                                   •Productivity
Companies & individuals use an out-of-the-box platform                            •Commitment
(assets, processes, norms) to create and deliver value to                         •Predictability
customers, partners, themselves, and community
                                        9
                                                                                             9
Notes

• Ecosystem types
                           Eclipse
                                         • Base element:
             Defense
           departments
                                           software, hardware
                           Linux
                                           design, process,
                                           content, scientific
                                           knowledge




• Ecosystem is more than a development community
  Money + governance + IPR, not just development
  Rewards performance of multi-organization collaboration, not
   developer collaboration
  Scale depends on member size and diversity, not just number
   of talented developers       10
                                                                  10
Keystone’s main responsibilities

 • Out of box rules to collaborate and compete
Compete:                               Build competitive differentiators for
                                       which customers are willing to pay

Collaborate: Platform for which
                Base element           Work with others to produce base
                 keystone is
                                       elements
                 responsible


 •   Attracts talented volunteers to collaborate
 •   Recruits members
 •   Develops and fosters adoption of base elements
 •   Provides governance and IP regime
 •   Delivers services to ecosystem members
 •   Maintains ecosystem healthy  11
                                                                        11
Benefits of business ecosystems

 Small and medium size businesses            Governments

 • Access to deal flows and                  • Attract and retain knowledge jobs,
   opportunity fulfillment                     innovative companies and private
                                               investment
 • Customer pull for rapid innovation
                                             • Attract significant resources to
 • Share business development and              focus on government priorities
   R&D costs
                                             • More resilient to external shocks
 • Fast and favorable access to                and economic downturns
   sophisticated capabilities
   worldwide                                 • Create systemic change required
                                               to move to new economy
 • No lock-in by powerful companies
                                             • Shape what exists into a system
 • Lower cost of entering markets in           that produces outcomes with high
   which they can’t operate today              impact

 • High quality mentoring                    • Higher return on government
                                               investment with less risk

                                             • Common process across sectors
                                                                                   12
                                        12
3. Problem in Canada’s Capital Region

 • Tech-sector employment from 72,400 in May 2000 to
   53,100 in August 2009 (~30% drop)
 • Lost 8,600 jobs over past 12 months
 • Venture capital investment from $1.3 billion in 2000
   (74 deals) to less than $24 million in 2009 (1 deal)
 • Fallout from Nortel’s bankruptcy
 • No large company expects to create jobs
 • All three levels of government unprepared to deal
   with tech meltdown in region
 • 1,800 tech start-ups, small number of mid size, 1 IPO
   in last 20 years
 • Families and community hurt                             13
                             13
Response: Ecosystems


                                                                             ?
                                                       Pervasive Net
                                                                 Auto
          Lead to Win                         VE Mobile Media
                                        Coral    Apps
                     $400 k             CEA
                                         $37 M
• 4 phase process
• Each company in                                Each vertical ecosystem to operate
phase III creates 6+                             multi million $ specialized asset
tech jobs                                        • Building blocks
                                                 • Services:
                                                     • Co-creating using sandbox
          • Talent      Talent First                 • Lead projects
   • Open source         Network                     • Knowledge and dissemination
           stacks                $2 M
                                                     • Business development
       • OSBR.ca                                     • Commercialization

                        # of technology jobs created
                           $ risk capital invested
                # of students educated for creative economy
                                      14
                                                                                 14
Overview of three ecosystems
                 Mandate            Base           Success              Scope
                                    element
Lead to Win      Launch and grow    • Wealth       • # tech jobs        Region
                 technology         creation       • Amount of risk     other
                 businesses         process        capital investment   regions
Coral CEA       • Provide member • Software      • # tech jobs          Canada
(Communications companies        assets in $15.3 • Amount of risk        Global
Enabled          building blocks,     M sandbox    capital investment
Applications)    commercialization                 # apps that use
                 support and out                   Sandbox
                 of box process to                 • # new CEA
                 differentiate offers              companies
                 • Fill gaps in                    • Keystone income
                 commercialization
Talent First     • Thought         • Open source   • # tech jobs      Province
Network          leadership        stacks          • # companies that
                 • Fill gaps in    • Knowledge     make money from
                 commercialization                 open source assets
                                        15
                                                   • # grad students         15
LTW largest provider of incubation services

                                      1. Keystone
  2. Niches collaborate to                                 3. Customers pay for market
                                         Community
   develop base element                 centric out of        offers built on top of or
                                        box platform        extension to base element
         66 Founders                      Services                     Company 49    $
         25 Contractors                                         .                           Customer
                                       Base element:        .                        Mk
         42 Reviewers                     • mutants        .
                                                                                    offer
         14 Faculty                    • opportunities              Company 2   $                          .
                                                                                         Customer      .
         7 Alumni                        Governance             Company 1     $Mk
                                                                                                      .
         6 Service providers                                                  offer Customer
                                                                             Mk
         5 Recruiters                                                       offer

                              9 Strategic        42 Associates
                                     4. Member types
5. Ecosystem health
• # of tech jobs
• Amount of private investment
• #, diversity and rate of introduction of market offers
                                                                                                 16
• Keystone’s income                             16
New wave of ICT innovation

                     Components +
                                                             Coral CEA                 Large
    1. Sandbox
                     prototype environment                                           Competitor

  2. Lead projects   Services
                                        SME3

   3. Commercial
      services                                                                       European
                                                                                     Customer
   4. Knowledge &
    dissemination
                                    x
                                                x
                                       x
    5. Business      US Orchestrator
      development
                                x       SME1                               • $15.3 M Sandbox
   Keystone                                           SME4       Whole     • $10.5 M cash
                                x              SME2
                                           x
                                                      x          product   • ? Member fees
                                    Members


• Ecosystem provides small company proprietary advantage to compete
  against large suppliers
• Most benefit to companies that are small with no brand recognition and no
  money to absorb development and distribution costs
                                     17
                                                                          17
Talent, stacks and thought leadership

                                                     Ontario Talent First Network
                                     Carleton
                                     Technology
                                      Innovation        Lead Customers
 Content suppliers                   Management         •   Provide requirements
 • Create useful information                            •   Validate ideas
 • Stimulate customer interest                          •   Contribute ideas for improvements
   and foster community                                 •   Become users of new commercial
                                                            products


 Capital Suppliers
 • Government, venture capital              Innovators
 • Monetize innovators’ new offers          • Creative individuals interested in starting and
                                              growing new businesses for the new economy
                                            • Generate revenue for themselves and other
     Serial Entrepreneurs                     ecosystem members
     • Experienced repeat                   • Extend value of Ecosystem tools and platform
       entrepreneurs
     • Provide advice and guidance



 • Enables commercialization of market offers that rely on
   open source assets (e.g., SW, HW, process)
                                                                                                18
                                            18
4. Takeaways

 • Ignore business ecosystems at your peril

 • Ecosystems can:

    Harness innovative individuals worldwide

    Launch and grow technology companies

    Create and retain jobs and attract private investment

    Enhance experience of graduate students

 • Knowing how to establish and enable business
   ecosystems is a key competitive advantage

                                                         19
                            19
References

 • Bailetti, Antonio (2009) Business ecosystems: new form of organizing
   creative individuals worldwide. Carleton University Alumni Conference
   in Toronto, February 12.
 • Bailetti, Antonio (2008) Ecosystem approach to commercialization of
   technology products and services. TIM Lecture, March 28.
 • Carbone, Peter (2007) Value derived from open source is a function of
   maturity levels. Partnership Conference, April 19.
 • Carbone, Peter (2009) Emerging promise of business ecosystems.
   Open Source Business Resource, February.
 • Hurley, Brian (2009) Enabling the creative entrepreneur. Open Source
   Business Resource, August.
 • Lombardi, Stephen (2008) Interaction between Eclipse Foundation
   members and Eclipse projects. Carleton University thesis, Department
   of Systems and Computer Engineering.
 • Milinkovich, Mike (2008) A practitioner’s guide to ecosystem
   development. TIM Lecture, September 3.
 • Moore, James (2006) Business ecosystems and the view from the firm.
   The Antitrust Bulletin, Vol 51, No. 1, Spring 31-75.
 • Skerrett, Ian (2008) Building technology communities. TIM Lecture,
   June 4.

                                                                           20
                                    20
Thank you!




                 www.carleton.ca/tim
                  www.leadtowin.ca
                   www.coralcea.net
             www.talentfirstnetwork.org/wiki




                                               21
                           21

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Open Source Maturity Curve and Ecosystem

  • 1. Open source maturity curve and ecosystems Tony Bailetti Systems and Computer Engineering and Sprott School of Business Bailetti@sce.carleton.ca Eclipse Summit October 29, 2009
  • 2. 1. Motivation • Increase value from engaging with open source projects and vendor-neutral business ecosystems • Use ecosystems to solve very different problems • Reduce cost and increase speed and flexibility of high diversity, multi-player collaboration 2 2
  • 3. Agenda 1. Value from open source 2. Business ecosystem components 3. Use ecosystems to create and retain tech jobs 4. Takeaways 3 3
  • 4. 2. Value from engaging with OS project Value for company 5. Redefine 4. Co-create 3. Build new 2. Extend what exists 1. Use & promote Engineering Effort Business 0. Deny How company chooses to interact with OS projects determines value it can extract 4 4
  • 5. Authority and effort increase with levels Business Level 4 Co-create Level 1 Use & promote Products Market 5 5
  • 6. Value to community Value for 5. More ecosystem company links & resources 4. Greater commitment to healthy ecosystem 3. More new applications, greater project participation & leadership 2. More features, better quality 1. No change in code, more users & awareness Effort 6 6
  • 7. Engagement of 163 Eclipse members • 65 operate at just one level, 98 operate combinations • None just Co-creates or Redefines • 4% just Use & promote 14 22 13 • 67% do not Co-create 12 0 10 0 • 10% operate in first four levels 28 31 9 • 18% Co-create and do one other level 6 16 2 • 5% Co-create, Extend what is, Build new 7 7
  • 8. Perspectives about Eclipse Value for 5. ??? company 4. Concurrently advance multiple projects & integrate 3. Create & drive adoption of new applications that use Eclipse platform 2. Add features to existing applications 1. Use to develop or as part of deployment stack Effort 8 8
  • 9. 2. Business ecosystem’s 5 key components 1. Keystone 2. Niches collaborate 3. Customers pay for market Out of box to develop base platform offers that rely on base element element Services Company N $ IP regime . Customer . Mk Base element . offer Company 2 $ . Governance Customer . . Company 1 $Mk offer Customer Mk offer X XZ XYZ Z 5. Ecosystem health 4. Member types • Diversity •Productivity Companies & individuals use an out-of-the-box platform •Commitment (assets, processes, norms) to create and deliver value to •Predictability customers, partners, themselves, and community 9 9
  • 10. Notes • Ecosystem types Eclipse • Base element: Defense departments software, hardware Linux design, process, content, scientific knowledge • Ecosystem is more than a development community Money + governance + IPR, not just development Rewards performance of multi-organization collaboration, not developer collaboration Scale depends on member size and diversity, not just number of talented developers 10 10
  • 11. Keystone’s main responsibilities • Out of box rules to collaborate and compete Compete: Build competitive differentiators for which customers are willing to pay Collaborate: Platform for which Base element Work with others to produce base keystone is elements responsible • Attracts talented volunteers to collaborate • Recruits members • Develops and fosters adoption of base elements • Provides governance and IP regime • Delivers services to ecosystem members • Maintains ecosystem healthy 11 11
  • 12. Benefits of business ecosystems Small and medium size businesses Governments • Access to deal flows and • Attract and retain knowledge jobs, opportunity fulfillment innovative companies and private investment • Customer pull for rapid innovation • Attract significant resources to • Share business development and focus on government priorities R&D costs • More resilient to external shocks • Fast and favorable access to and economic downturns sophisticated capabilities worldwide • Create systemic change required to move to new economy • No lock-in by powerful companies • Shape what exists into a system • Lower cost of entering markets in that produces outcomes with high which they can’t operate today impact • High quality mentoring • Higher return on government investment with less risk • Common process across sectors 12 12
  • 13. 3. Problem in Canada’s Capital Region • Tech-sector employment from 72,400 in May 2000 to 53,100 in August 2009 (~30% drop) • Lost 8,600 jobs over past 12 months • Venture capital investment from $1.3 billion in 2000 (74 deals) to less than $24 million in 2009 (1 deal) • Fallout from Nortel’s bankruptcy • No large company expects to create jobs • All three levels of government unprepared to deal with tech meltdown in region • 1,800 tech start-ups, small number of mid size, 1 IPO in last 20 years • Families and community hurt 13 13
  • 14. Response: Ecosystems ? Pervasive Net Auto Lead to Win VE Mobile Media Coral Apps $400 k CEA $37 M • 4 phase process • Each company in Each vertical ecosystem to operate phase III creates 6+ multi million $ specialized asset tech jobs • Building blocks • Services: • Co-creating using sandbox • Talent Talent First • Lead projects • Open source Network • Knowledge and dissemination stacks $2 M • Business development • OSBR.ca • Commercialization # of technology jobs created $ risk capital invested # of students educated for creative economy 14 14
  • 15. Overview of three ecosystems Mandate Base Success Scope element Lead to Win Launch and grow • Wealth • # tech jobs Region technology creation • Amount of risk other businesses process capital investment regions Coral CEA • Provide member • Software • # tech jobs Canada (Communications companies assets in $15.3 • Amount of risk  Global Enabled building blocks, M sandbox capital investment Applications) commercialization # apps that use support and out Sandbox of box process to • # new CEA differentiate offers companies • Fill gaps in • Keystone income commercialization Talent First • Thought • Open source • # tech jobs Province Network leadership stacks • # companies that • Fill gaps in • Knowledge make money from commercialization open source assets 15 • # grad students 15
  • 16. LTW largest provider of incubation services 1. Keystone 2. Niches collaborate to 3. Customers pay for market Community develop base element centric out of offers built on top of or box platform extension to base element 66 Founders Services Company 49 $ 25 Contractors . Customer Base element: . Mk 42 Reviewers • mutants . offer 14 Faculty • opportunities Company 2 $ . Customer . 7 Alumni Governance Company 1 $Mk . 6 Service providers offer Customer Mk 5 Recruiters offer 9 Strategic 42 Associates 4. Member types 5. Ecosystem health • # of tech jobs • Amount of private investment • #, diversity and rate of introduction of market offers 16 • Keystone’s income 16
  • 17. New wave of ICT innovation Components + Coral CEA Large 1. Sandbox prototype environment Competitor 2. Lead projects Services SME3 3. Commercial services European Customer 4. Knowledge & dissemination x x x 5. Business US Orchestrator development x SME1 • $15.3 M Sandbox Keystone SME4 Whole • $10.5 M cash x SME2 x x product • ? Member fees Members • Ecosystem provides small company proprietary advantage to compete against large suppliers • Most benefit to companies that are small with no brand recognition and no money to absorb development and distribution costs 17 17
  • 18. Talent, stacks and thought leadership Ontario Talent First Network Carleton Technology Innovation Lead Customers Content suppliers Management • Provide requirements • Create useful information • Validate ideas • Stimulate customer interest • Contribute ideas for improvements and foster community • Become users of new commercial products Capital Suppliers • Government, venture capital Innovators • Monetize innovators’ new offers • Creative individuals interested in starting and growing new businesses for the new economy • Generate revenue for themselves and other Serial Entrepreneurs ecosystem members • Experienced repeat • Extend value of Ecosystem tools and platform entrepreneurs • Provide advice and guidance • Enables commercialization of market offers that rely on open source assets (e.g., SW, HW, process) 18 18
  • 19. 4. Takeaways • Ignore business ecosystems at your peril • Ecosystems can:  Harness innovative individuals worldwide  Launch and grow technology companies  Create and retain jobs and attract private investment  Enhance experience of graduate students • Knowing how to establish and enable business ecosystems is a key competitive advantage 19 19
  • 20. References • Bailetti, Antonio (2009) Business ecosystems: new form of organizing creative individuals worldwide. Carleton University Alumni Conference in Toronto, February 12. • Bailetti, Antonio (2008) Ecosystem approach to commercialization of technology products and services. TIM Lecture, March 28. • Carbone, Peter (2007) Value derived from open source is a function of maturity levels. Partnership Conference, April 19. • Carbone, Peter (2009) Emerging promise of business ecosystems. Open Source Business Resource, February. • Hurley, Brian (2009) Enabling the creative entrepreneur. Open Source Business Resource, August. • Lombardi, Stephen (2008) Interaction between Eclipse Foundation members and Eclipse projects. Carleton University thesis, Department of Systems and Computer Engineering. • Milinkovich, Mike (2008) A practitioner’s guide to ecosystem development. TIM Lecture, September 3. • Moore, James (2006) Business ecosystems and the view from the firm. The Antitrust Bulletin, Vol 51, No. 1, Spring 31-75. • Skerrett, Ian (2008) Building technology communities. TIM Lecture, June 4. 20 20
  • 21. Thank you! www.carleton.ca/tim www.leadtowin.ca www.coralcea.net www.talentfirstnetwork.org/wiki 21 21