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ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor

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David Grover, CFA
David Grover, CFA

International Space University - Developing On-Orbit Servicing Concepts Technology Options and Roadmap (DOCTOR)

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DOCTOR: Developing On-Orbit Servicing Concepts, Technology Options, and Roadmap Final Report International Space University Summer Session Program 2007 
                                           i
____________________________ Acknowledgements                                                                         ii 
________________________________________ Authors                                                                                                                                          iii
_______________________________________ Abstract                                                                                                                                                                                               iv 
________________________________ Faculty Preface                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       v
________________________________ Student Preface                                                                                vi 
______________________________Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 1.1 DEFINING ON-ORBIT SERVICING ...............................................................................1 1.2 MISSION STATEMENT.................................................................................................1 1.3 MOTIVATION FOR OOS..............................................................................................2 1.4 PURPOSE AND SCOPE .................................................................................................2 1.5 METHODOLOGY .........................................................................................................2 1.6 SUPPORTING MATERIAL .............................................................................................3 2. BACKGROUND OF OOS ..................................................................................................4 2.1 WHAT MAKES A SPACECRAFT FAIL?.........................................................................4 2.2 HISTORICAL OOS MISSIONS ......................................................................................5 2.3 MISSION CATEGORIES................................................................................................6 3. CHALLENGES....................................................................................................................9 3.1 ECONOMIC CHALLENGES ...........................................................................................9 3.2 ENGINEERING RISKS ..................................................................................................9 3.3 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND EXPORT CONTROLS ................................................10 3.4 LIABILITY, INSURANCE, AND LICENSING.................................................................10 3.5 SPACE DEBRIS ..........................................................................................................11 3.6 SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ...............................................................................11 3.7 TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL ............................................................................11 3.8 STANDARDIZATION ..................................................................................................12 3.9 CUSTOMER TRUST ...................................................................................................12 3.10 SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................12 4. BRIDGING THE GAP - SOLUTIONS ...........................................................................13 4.1 INDUSTRY-DRIVEN STANDARDIZATION ..................................................................13 4.2 TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION THROUGH MILITARY......................................................16 4.3 STANDARDIZATION THROUGH PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP ..............................17 4.4 ISS ROBOTICS SPIN-OFF INITIATIVE ........................................................................19 4.5 COMMERCIAL SPACE STANDARDS BOARD ..............................................................20 4.6 SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS .......................................................21 4.7 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................22 5. NEAR-TERM VISION .....................................................................................................23 5.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................24 5.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................24 5.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................26 5.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................26 6. MID-TERM VISION ........................................................................................................27 6.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................27 6.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................28  vii
6.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................30 7. MID-TERM SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE.....................................................................32 7.1 MISSION REQUIREMENTS .........................................................................................32 7.2 ARCHITECTURE TRADE STUDY ................................................................................33 7.3 SYSTEM DESIGN FOR ON-DEMAND ORBITAL REPLACEMENT UNIT ........................37 7.4 SUBSYSTEM DESIGN ................................................................................................44 7.5 MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................54 7.6 CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................60 8. FAR-TERM VISION ........................................................................................................62 8.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................62 8.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................62 8.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................63 8.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................64 9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................66 ANNEX A. FEASIBILITY MATRIX.................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................75 A.2 POLICY CRITERIA ....................................................................................................76 A.3 ECONOMIC CRITERIA...............................................................................................76 A.4 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY .........................................................................................76 A.5 INTERDISCIPLINARY CRITERIA ...............................................................................77 A.6 ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................77 A.7 MATRIX SENSITIVITY ..............................................................................................80 viii 
_________________________________Index of Figures ........................................................................4 ..............................................................20  ...............................................................................................23 ...........................................................................................26 .................................................................................................27  .....................................................................................................31  ......................................................34  ...................................................34 .........................................................................................38  .............................................................................40  ................................................................................................45 ............................................................................................47 ............................................................................................49 .................................................................................50 .................................................................................................50  ...........................................................................................51  ...............................................................52 ....................................................................................................53  .................................................................56  ...............................................................................................................60 ..................................................................................................62 .................................................................64 ........................................................................................64  ......................................................................................................65     ix
_________________________________ Index of Tables  Table 4-1: Cost Model for OOS Delivered by a Satellite Manufacturer ..................................16 Table 6-1: Technologies that may enable OOS in the Mid-Term ............................................28 Table 6-2: Robotic OOS platforms available in the Near-Term...............................................28 Table 7-1: Summary of Systems Trades...................................................................................35 Table 7-2: Mass Distribution of the Servicer............................................................................38 Table 7-3: ORU Lifetimes ........................................................................................................40 Table 7-4: Ion engine performance...........................................................................................45 Table 7-5: ODORU Power Budget...........................................................................................46 Table 7-6: Power Consumption of Subsystems........................................................................46 Table 7-7: Solar Panel efficiency .............................................................................................46 Table 7-8: Trade-off of Autonomous vs. Teleoperated Operations..........................................48 Table7-9: Requirement of Servicer System (ITU 2007; SLBC 2007) .....................................53 Table7-10: Frequency bandwidth and antenna type .................................................................54 Table7-11: Result of link budget calculation............................................................................54 Table 7-12: Estimated OOS Annual Market Value ..................................................................55 Table 7-13: Trade-off Analysis for ORU service mission prices .............................................57 Table 7-14: ORU-like failures in GEO (Sullivan 2005)...........................................................57 Table 7-15: ORU-replacement market (Sullivan 2005)............................................................58 Table 7-16: ORU-Replacement projected annual revenues......................................................59 Table 7-17: Project Cost and Revenue until Breakeven ...........................................................60  x 
_______________________________List of Acronyms                                                                                                                                                                                                              xi
                                                                                                                                                                                                              xii 
__________________________________Chapter 1 Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2 
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ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
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ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor
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ISU SSP07 TP Report On Orbit Servicing Doctor

  • 1. DOCTOR: Developing On-Orbit Servicing Concepts, Technology Options, and Roadmap Final Report International Space University Summer Session Program 2007 
  • 2.
  • 3.                                            i
  • 4. ____________________________ Acknowledgements                                                                         ii 
  • 5. ________________________________________ Authors                                                                                                                                          iii
  • 6. _______________________________________ Abstract                                                                                                                                                                                               iv 
  • 7. ________________________________ Faculty Preface                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       v
  • 8. ________________________________ Student Preface                                                                                vi 
  • 9. ______________________________Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 1.1 DEFINING ON-ORBIT SERVICING ...............................................................................1 1.2 MISSION STATEMENT.................................................................................................1 1.3 MOTIVATION FOR OOS..............................................................................................2 1.4 PURPOSE AND SCOPE .................................................................................................2 1.5 METHODOLOGY .........................................................................................................2 1.6 SUPPORTING MATERIAL .............................................................................................3 2. BACKGROUND OF OOS ..................................................................................................4 2.1 WHAT MAKES A SPACECRAFT FAIL?.........................................................................4 2.2 HISTORICAL OOS MISSIONS ......................................................................................5 2.3 MISSION CATEGORIES................................................................................................6 3. CHALLENGES....................................................................................................................9 3.1 ECONOMIC CHALLENGES ...........................................................................................9 3.2 ENGINEERING RISKS ..................................................................................................9 3.3 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND EXPORT CONTROLS ................................................10 3.4 LIABILITY, INSURANCE, AND LICENSING.................................................................10 3.5 SPACE DEBRIS ..........................................................................................................11 3.6 SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ...............................................................................11 3.7 TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL ............................................................................11 3.8 STANDARDIZATION ..................................................................................................12 3.9 CUSTOMER TRUST ...................................................................................................12 3.10 SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................12 4. BRIDGING THE GAP - SOLUTIONS ...........................................................................13 4.1 INDUSTRY-DRIVEN STANDARDIZATION ..................................................................13 4.2 TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION THROUGH MILITARY......................................................16 4.3 STANDARDIZATION THROUGH PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP ..............................17 4.4 ISS ROBOTICS SPIN-OFF INITIATIVE ........................................................................19 4.5 COMMERCIAL SPACE STANDARDS BOARD ..............................................................20 4.6 SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS .......................................................21 4.7 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................22 5. NEAR-TERM VISION .....................................................................................................23 5.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................24 5.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................24 5.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................26 5.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................26 6. MID-TERM VISION ........................................................................................................27 6.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................27 6.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................28  vii
  • 10. 6.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................30 7. MID-TERM SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE.....................................................................32 7.1 MISSION REQUIREMENTS .........................................................................................32 7.2 ARCHITECTURE TRADE STUDY ................................................................................33 7.3 SYSTEM DESIGN FOR ON-DEMAND ORBITAL REPLACEMENT UNIT ........................37 7.4 SUBSYSTEM DESIGN ................................................................................................44 7.5 MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................54 7.6 CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................60 8. FAR-TERM VISION ........................................................................................................62 8.1 POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS ..........................................................................................62 8.2 KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS ..................................................................62 8.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED ......................................................................63 8.4 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................64 9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................66 ANNEX A. FEASIBILITY MATRIX.................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................75 A.2 POLICY CRITERIA ....................................................................................................76 A.3 ECONOMIC CRITERIA...............................................................................................76 A.4 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY .........................................................................................76 A.5 INTERDISCIPLINARY CRITERIA ...............................................................................77 A.6 ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................77 A.7 MATRIX SENSITIVITY ..............................................................................................80 viii 
  • 11. _________________________________Index of Figures ........................................................................4 ..............................................................20  ...............................................................................................23 ...........................................................................................26 .................................................................................................27  .....................................................................................................31  ......................................................34  ...................................................34 .........................................................................................38  .............................................................................40  ................................................................................................45 ............................................................................................47 ............................................................................................49 .................................................................................50 .................................................................................................50  ...........................................................................................51  ...............................................................52 ....................................................................................................53  .................................................................56  ...............................................................................................................60 ..................................................................................................62 .................................................................64 ........................................................................................64  ......................................................................................................65     ix
  • 12. _________________________________ Index of Tables  Table 4-1: Cost Model for OOS Delivered by a Satellite Manufacturer ..................................16 Table 6-1: Technologies that may enable OOS in the Mid-Term ............................................28 Table 6-2: Robotic OOS platforms available in the Near-Term...............................................28 Table 7-1: Summary of Systems Trades...................................................................................35 Table 7-2: Mass Distribution of the Servicer............................................................................38 Table 7-3: ORU Lifetimes ........................................................................................................40 Table 7-4: Ion engine performance...........................................................................................45 Table 7-5: ODORU Power Budget...........................................................................................46 Table 7-6: Power Consumption of Subsystems........................................................................46 Table 7-7: Solar Panel efficiency .............................................................................................46 Table 7-8: Trade-off of Autonomous vs. Teleoperated Operations..........................................48 Table7-9: Requirement of Servicer System (ITU 2007; SLBC 2007) .....................................53 Table7-10: Frequency bandwidth and antenna type .................................................................54 Table7-11: Result of link budget calculation............................................................................54 Table 7-12: Estimated OOS Annual Market Value ..................................................................55 Table 7-13: Trade-off Analysis for ORU service mission prices .............................................57 Table 7-14: ORU-like failures in GEO (Sullivan 2005)...........................................................57 Table 7-15: ORU-replacement market (Sullivan 2005)............................................................58 Table 7-16: ORU-Replacement projected annual revenues......................................................59 Table 7-17: Project Cost and Revenue until Breakeven ...........................................................60  x 
  • 13. _______________________________List of Acronyms                                                                                                                                                                                                              xi
  • 14.                                                                                                                                                                                                               xii 
  • 15. __________________________________Chapter 1 Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1
  • 16.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2 