From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

Greentech Media’s
2011 Solar Summit

From Polysilicon to Power:
The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

Greentech Media Solar Summit

Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar
Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar Markets

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!

Agenda
  Global PV Demand
  2010 Recap
  2011 Outlook
  U.S. Market Focus

  Global PV Supply
  The Industrial Age
  Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks, Evolution, Revolution
  Supply-Demand Dynamics
  Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding
  Supplier Competitive Positioning
  Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Heading?

  Q&A


Global PV Demand: A Series of Gold Rushes

Source: GTM Research

4

Germany in 2011? Look at 2010

Source: Bundesnetzagentur, GTM Research


Are Other Gold Rush Markets Brewing?


2011 and Beyond: Global Market Outlook

Source: GTM Research Source: GTM Research

  Current 2011 estimate: 20.6 GW (17% growth), but significant uncertainty

  2012: flat given clamp-down of incentives in key FiT markets, followed by 12-20%
growth in 2013-2015

  Key trend is demand diffusion

U.S. Market Focus

Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM: 2010 Year-in-Review


The Growing Importance of the U.S. Market


9

U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007

NJ

NV

CO

CA



U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2010

MA

OR
NY

PA
NJ

OH

NV
IL

CO

CA
NC

AZ
NM

TX

FL

HI



U.S. Market in 2010 - by State & Segment

Pie Size Represents Total Residential
258.9
Capacity Installed (MWdc)
MWdc
Non-Residential
2.2
MWdc Utility


Will the Utility Market Take Over?


13

U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy

Foreign Entrants

European PV Developers

Utility Affiliates
Vertically Integrated Manufacturers
Upstream Entrants

Traditional Entrants
Pure Play U.S. PV Developers

Independent Power Producers
Divisions Joint Ventures
of Other
Corporate
Parents

Corporate
Entrants JV Entrants


Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go

Source:
DOE,
GTM
Research

15

How a PV Module is Born

Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module


PV Enters the Industrial Age
Factories w/capacity above 1 GW
  2009: 1 wafer, 1 cell, 1 module
  2013: 22 wafer, 15 cell, 11 module

  Vertically integrated wafer-cell-
module facility is dominant model
of the “gigawatt fab”

  Distributed module assembly
model still favored by many

  Polysilicon: Absence of sustained
bottleneck, capital risk, technical
challenges  limited instances of
integration

  How important is downstream
integration at this scale?


Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks
China Vertically Integrated (wafer-module) Crystalline Si
Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module

$0.42/W $0.28/W $0.23/W $0.30/W $1.23/W

$60/kg at 7g/Wp, low-cost location, 750 MW scale, full utilization, 14% efficiency

CdTe (First Solar)
Materials Depreciation Labor Utilities, Overhead

$0.47/W $0.11/W $0.06/W $0.11/W $0.75/W

Low-cost location, 1 GW scale, 90%+ yield, high throughput, full utilization,
11.5% efficiency

Manufacturing Costs: Evolution
  Need to distinguish b/w
incremental improvements
(current technology) vs. step-
function reduction (innovation)

  Incremental drivers:
  Cheaper poly (~$35/kg)
  Thinner wafers (~145 ųm)
  Efficiency up (~15%)
  Vertical integration (wafer-module)
  Scale-up (2 GW+)

  Threats to cost reductions:
  Poly bottlenecks
  Commodity prices (Al, Ag, glass)
  Cost/efficiency trade-offs

  When does existing technology
hit a plateau?

Manufacturing Costs: Revolution
What technologies could drive step-
function cost reductions in $/kWh?
Polysilicon
  FBR (MEMC, REC)
  UMG (CaliSolar)
Wafer
  Diamond saws
  Ultra-thin wafers (< 100 ųm)
  Kerfless wafering (SiGen, 1366)
Cell
  N-type (Yingli, Suniva)
  Ion implantation (Suniva)
  Back-contact (Trina)
  Selective emitter (Solarfun, Schott)
  Other (PERL, EWT, MWT, Silicon ink)
Module
  High-efficiency glass (Corning)
  Ultra-thin/reflective encapsulant (DuPont)
  Glass-free front sheet (Saint-Gobain)


Supply-Demand Dynamics
  Wafer/cell – need to distinguish
between low-cost and high-
cost supply; module – bankable
supply vs. other

  Acute undersupply of low-cost
cells, wafers, and bankable low-
cost modules in 2010; likely to
continue in H1 2011 and gate
demand; pricing, availability will
be tight

  H2 2011 more uncertain, but
likely to see price drops, higher
availability of modules

  2012: The return of oversupply?
Price reductions required to
trigger demand elasticity?


Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding
  2010 TF production: 1,454 MW CdTe,
1,543 MW a-Si, 395 MW CIGS/CIS

  Stable c-Si pricing, strong demand drive
high utilizations, cost reductions at 25-75
MW capacity

  Multiple hurdles to cross to scale
successfully:
  Process optimized for high yield/throughput
  Capital for expansion
  Downstream partners
  Product reliability (product bankability)
  Financing partners (supplier bankability)

  Who will drive the market?
  CdTe: First Solar, Abound, GE
  CIGS: Solar Frontier, Solibro, ~7 U.S.
manufacturers
  Amorphous Si: Sharp, ~20 Chinese producers

Supplier Competitive Positioning

Canadian, Jinko,
Solar Frontier SunPower
Trina, Hanwha
Yingli Suntech Sharp (tandem)

First
Solar

REC (Singapore)

23

Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Headed?
2013

P Polysilicon
W

c -‐Si
Wafer
C

c -‐Si
Cell M c-‐Si
Module

CdTe
CIGS
Amorphous
Si
i
Inverter


Thank You!
  Email:
kann@gtmresearch.com
mehta@gtmresearch.com

  GTM Research:
www.gtmresearch.com

  SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar
Market Insight:
www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsight


From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

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