This document discusses how cost-effective modems can help WiMAX operators expedite profitability. It analyzes usage patterns in emerging and developed markets to show that basic, economical modems are sufficient to meet user needs without compromising performance. This allows operators to offer affordable packages and reach profitability faster by subsidizing cheaper modems. The document also presents simulations showing that acquiring more subscribers or increasing ARPU can hasten the timeline to profitability for WiMAX operators.
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A PROFITABLE WIMAX BUSINESS STARTS WITH THE MODEM
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APPLICATION NOTE
2. Abstract
Profitability is the core of any business and impacts sustainability. The WiMAX industry is flourishing
worldwide but profitability remains at the horizons. There are many factors affecting this, including
modem subsidies. In order to remain competitive against rival broadband technologies, WiMAX
Operators offer cheap packages and absorb heavy device subsidies which delays profitability.
This paper focuses on how cost-effective modems can help WiMAX Operators expedite profitability.
Though the current IEEE 802.16e advocates Mobile WiMAX, majority of the users, especially in
emerging markets rely on WiMAX as a fixed broadband network. In response to this pattern, the
industry is flooded with a variety of indoor (fixed) modems. Many of these modems are integrated
devices, combining WiFi, data and voice ports. However, very often these ports remain unutilized by
residential users and the excess ports merely contribute to more expensive modems.
This paper also gives a better understanding of usage patterns in both emerging and developed
markets. It helps WiMAX Operators realize that basic, economic modems are able to perfectly meet
user requirements without jeopardizing performance. As a result, WiMAX Operators gain from a
shorter profitability period while users enjoy quality broadband connectivity.
APPLICATION NOTE
3. The Sunrise Industry Misses Its Cheese
Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) has been gaining rapid global traction with 588 deployments
across 148 countries recorded as of April 2010. This wireless broadband technology is reputed to provide reliable,
secure and high quality broadband access for fixed and mobile users. Additionally, WiMAX has been built as an IP-based
network which gives it the edge in supporting bandwidth-heavy applications and user generated content (UGC) services.
These characteristics have positioned WiMAX as a ‘saviour technology’ to combat network congestion due to
overwhelming data traffic and this technology is viewed as the receiving network to support data offloading.
On another note, WiMAX’s business model is yet to be proven profitable. The only consolation is that several leading
WiMAX Operators such as Yota and Globe have reached break-even points and are hoping to turn EBITDA positive in
2010. Sadly, profit-making still remains out of reach for at least for another couple of years.
Pricing Factor
One of the reasons contributing to the delay in profit generation is the pricing packages offered by WiMAX Operators.
Most WiMAX Operators have opted for the strategy of lowering their package pricing to combat intense competition from
their 3G/HSPA counterparts as shown in Figure 1. While this strategy has been effective in increasing market share, on
the other hand, it has a negative impact on earnings and profit margins.
Operator Operator Download Data Limit Monthly Subscription
Type Speed Fee (in US$)
APAC - Japan
UQ Communications WiMAX Up to 40Mbps Unlimited 49.63
Softbank Mobile 3G/3G+ Up to7.2Mbps Unlimited 66.27
North America
Clearwire WiMAX Unlimited Unlimited 45 (22.50/month for WiMAX
first six months) packages are
priced lower
Verizon Wireless 3G/3G+ Up to 1.4Mbps 5GB 59.99 compared to
3G/3G+
Russia
Scartel WiMAX Up to 10Mbps Unlimited 29.67
Megafon 3G/3G+ 3.6Mbps 500 MB 39.56
Europe - Bulgaria
TransTelecom WiMAX 2Mbps Unlimited 40.64
Vivacom 3G/3G+ 1.8Mbps 15GB 42.28
01
Source: 4GCounts
Figure 1: Package pricing comparison between WiMAX and 3G/3G+
APPLICATION NOTE
4. Heavy Device Subsidies
Another important factor to consider as part of the WiMAX business model is the total cost of ownership (TCO) which typically
involves capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX) of the operator. CAPEX usually constitutes a larger
percentage but OPEX will outweigh CAPEX overtime. Figure 2 gives a brief breakdown of categories within the cost of
ownership, these categories comprise of CAPEX and OPEX costs.
Infrastructure Infrastructure Core Site Backhaul IT Operations
WiMAX Base Subsidies for fixed Edge and Core Development Wireless Backhaul OSS / BSS Maintainance
Station and mobile IP Networking Equipment Development &
Equipment WiMAX devices Elements Acquisition Integration Support & Warranty
Wireline Backhaul
WiMAX Service Content Rental Utilities Installation & CRM Subsriber
Edge Network Management & Leasing Acquisition
Delivery
Marketing
Media Gateways
G&A
Source: Motorola
Figure 2: Cost categories of WiMAX
It is important to note that device subsidy is one of the cost categories mentioned above and can impact the operator’s
profitability. For example, according to Yankee Group, due to AT&T’s subsidy model, it takes 17 months into the two-year
iPhone service contract for the operator to recover its expenses. Without subsidy, AT&T would break-even within 8
months!
Device subsidy takes up 8% of an operator’s TCO as
shown in Figure 3. While subsidies have benefited 2% 7%
Core
operators during the growth phase, it delays profitability. 8%
IT
On the other hand, channeling the full device cost to users
8% Infrastructure
would dramatically increase package pricing and risks
50% Devices
turning customers away. 10% Backhaul
Site
How can WiMAX Operators strike a balance between 15% Operating
device subsidy and profitability? The answer lies in
cost-effective devices.
Source: Motorola
Figure 3: Breakdown of TCO cost categories by percentage
Cost Effective Modem
Modems can play a vital role in churning out a profitable business for WiMAX Operators. Choosing a cost effective modem that
fits the user and marketmarket’s and use’s need would help WiMAX Operators determine an attractive package pricing and
modem subsidy policy to obtain a more favourable break-even period.
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APPLICATION NOTE
5. Understanding User and Market Needs
User Needs – When Less Is More
Most integrated WiMAX modems have multiple data (RJ45) and voice (RJ11) ports, even as many as 4 ports. However,
at large, basic broadband users (typically residential users) only require one data port and one voice port as illustrated in
Figure 4 below. Instead, what varies is their usage pattern which is construed by the amount of data consumed and
speed required. Hence, while excess ports contribute to the additional cost of the modem, they are not utilized.
Data port VoIP port
User can enjoy data-centric User can make VoIP
applications via a laptop or desktop calls or fax transmission
Figure 4: One data and VoIP port is sufficient to support users’ typical broadband usage pattern
Market Needs – Emerging Markets
WiMAX is deployed in both developed and emerging markets; however, 78% of the deployments are concentrated in the
latter market. Emerging markets present a more appealing opportunity for WiMAX as wireline infrastructure is scarcely
available and expensive to deploy, which ultimately leads to high broadband fees. Other factors driving WiMAX in
emerging markets include:
• Low broadband penetration
• Limited broadband availability
• New entrants can get a large market share
• Low price elasticity among residential subscribers
• Initial focus on fixed broadband
The above factors prove the growth potential of WiMAX. It is important to note that while these countries are rich with
natural and human resources, affordability is relatively low. With this in mind, WiMAX Operators have to offer affordable
packages without jeopardizing ARPU. In addition to requiring fixed (indoor) modems, emerging markets need
economical WiMAX modems.
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APPLICATION NOTE
6. Low Bandwidth Requirements & Internet Sharing
Meanwhile in developed markets, users often take for granted that computers are personal devices, even if the computer
is used for work purposes. However, in emerging markets, expectations around computer usage are drastically different.
In some communities, users share the Internet to execute low bandwidth applications. For the majority of people in
developing countries such as India and the Philippines, computer usage is primarily within shared, public environments
such as internet cafes or school labs. Walk down any street in New Delhi (India) or Manila (Philippines), it is a common
scene to see people of all ages editing their resumes, catching up on email or social networking.
Case Studies
Narrowing Digital Divide in Lao Cai, Vietnam
Lao Cai (Vietnam) is an economic center of rural agriculture where the economy depends on building robust
relationships with neighbouring trading partners. Though there is good cellular phone coverage across this
mountainous region, no such coverage exists for data services. Internet access is available through dial-up which
is often slow and unreliable. As part of Intel’s World Ahead program to bridge digital divide between developed and
developing nations, WiMAX was introduced to this province. Nearly 20 fixed-access WiMAX modems were
installed at the local post office, Internet cafés, government office, secondary schools, healthcare centers, hotels
and farm households to provide quality broadband services.
Figure 5: Mountainous terrains of Lao Cai (left) and an Internet café equipped with WiMAX service (right)
Empowering Medical Attention in Parintins, Brazil
Meanwhile in Parintins, Brazil, an isolated island city with 114,000 inhabitants, residents struggled to get medical
attention with only 12 general physicians and 20 specialists. Intel installed a WiMAX network for a primary
healthcare center and several other community places, including the Amazon University. This enabled Amazon
University to start a telemedicine program with the School of Sao Paolo University. The island’s doctors benefitted
from a faster and greater access to the latest medical data to help in preventing diseases.
Figure 6: Island city of Parintins (left) and residents enjoy better medical care through WiMAX services (right)
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APPLICATION NOTE
7. Market Needs – Developed Markets
In developed markets, WiMAX is often deployed to complement wireline broadband and address the underserved areas.
With its wireless advantage, high data capacity, cost-effective and quicker to deploy, WiMAX has emerged as a favourite
technology to reach rural areas.
Improving the Agriculture Industry, New Zealand
Contrary to common perception that rural areas do not have a pressing need for broadband, in developing countries,
rural areas is a burgeoning market that needs broadband attention. For example, in New Zealand, agriculture (a rural
based industry) is the main export industry. In fact, as of June 2009, agriculture represented 47% of the country’s total
exports, as shown in Figure 6.
New Zealand’s Exports
21%
Dairy
Meat
53% Wood
13%
Fruit
Fishing
6%
4% Non-agriculture
3%
Source: Wikipedia
Figure 7: New Zealand’s Agriculture Exports as of June 2009
With agriculture holding a pivotal role in its economy, New Zealand’s rugged and remote location has demonstrated to
be a major barrier to broadband access in rural areas. Farm owners need realible Internet access to efficiently
communicate with export supply chain vendors and coordinate export efforts.
Case Study
Waimate West Farm, New Zealand
In a study conducted by Intel in the Taranaki Region, Brent and Annette Perret who are the Farm Managers of
Waimate West Farm stated that for many years, they have been connecting to the Internet via dial-up twice a
week. Unfortunately, the connection was unrealiable and they were often left frustrated at the slow connection.
Furthermore, in using dial-up, Brent and Annette were not able to make telephone calls as the connection was
engaged for Internet. Like Brent and Annette, business communities in New Zealand’s rural areas were looking for
a solution to their rickety and snail-paced Internet connections.
The solution was WiMAX! Broadcast Communications, in partnership with Airspan Networks launched 28
WiMAX sites in November 2003. This initiative provided a dependable broadband connection to
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50% of New Zealand’s household that did not have broadband access.
APPLICATION NOTE
8. Basic Modems Deliver
From the case studies explained above, it is clear that WiMAX users, both in emerging and developed markets can be
effectively served through basic modems that meet their basic broadband needs. Target households often possess only
one computer which is shared by the entire family unit - as such, fixed indoor modems are often the best choice for this
audience.
Additionally, basic modems (with one data and VoIP port) are cost-effective as they only contain the necessary ports to
deliver the required broadband access but do not compromise on performance. This helps Operators to offer affordable
packages without over-straining CAPEX. For example, one of the packaging strategies adopted by Operators is to offer
free WiMAX modems upon sign up. While this strategy is attractive in increasing WiMAX adoption, operators are forced
to spend precious CAPEX in subsidizing the modems’ cost. By purchasing economical modems, WiMAX Operators can
subsidize the modem but at a reduced CAPEX.
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APPLICATION NOTE
9. Simulating a Profitable Business Model for WiMAX
Operators
A profitable business model for WiMAX Operators involves mixing a perfect package that blends number of subscribers,
ARPU and modem subsidy. With these elements in mind, Greenpacket simulated a business model based on a study
conducted1 in the Asia Pacific region.
Business Objectives
The selected Operator has the following business plan:
Achieve 500,000 Establish 1,500 network Earn profits within 5 years
subscribers by 2012 sites by 2012 (from 2009)
To attain the above objectives, 3 factors will impact the profit model:
• Subscriber numbers
• ARPU
• Modem subsidy
Market Evaluation
For the purpose of this simulation, the following is assumed:
Household Size 4.66 persons/family
Population 92.2 million (2010) – 110.6 million (2018)
Household 19.8 million (2010) – 23.7 million (2018)
Affordability • 3% of income is spent on Internet access
• An estimated 20% is able to afford fixed broadband at an annual rate of USD240 – 840.
• As such, the potential target households for fixed broadband is 3.96 million
Market Ranked the nation’s 3rd broadband provider. Slow increase rate in subscriber numbers
Competition translates intgo loss in market share. This has impacted the Operator’s income.
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1Location details are withheld to protect the interest of the WiMAX Operator. Figures stated in the table may
vary significantly in different regions and countries.
APPLICATION NOTE
10. From the statistics presented, approximately 4 million households are able to afford broadband in 2010, with more within
the next 5 years. Meanwhile, 1 million households are currently subscribed to a broadband connection, leaving an
opportunity window of 3 million subscribers.
In order to be profitable within 5 years, the Operator has to acquire/implement the following:
Subscriber # ARPU Modem Subsidy
0.75 million (average) Increase between 10% - 20% 100% or 50%
1.00 million (high)
To attain the above objectives, 3 factors will impact the profit model:
• Subscriber numbers
• ARPU
• Modem subsidy
Profitable Business Models
Model #1 – Financial Analysis based on Subscriber Number
Profitability Timelines
Subscriber Acquisition Plan EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+
0.75 million Q1 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2013
1.00 million Q1 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2012
Conclusion:
Subscriber numbers can impact financial outcome. An increase or decrease of 10%– 33% can hasten profitability
period by 1 year.
Subscriber Acquisition Plan of 0.75 million Subscriber Acquisition Plan of 0.75 million
Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD
90,000 90,000
60,000 60,000
30,000 30,000
0 0
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
(30,000) (30,000)
(60,000) EBITDA (60,000) EBITDA
EBIT EBIT
08
(90,000) Cummulative (60,000) Cummulative
Retained Profit Retained Profit
Figure 8: Breakeven and profitability timelines based on different subcriber acquisition plans
APPLICATION NOTE
11. Model #2 – Financial Analysis based on ARPU
Profitability Timelines
ARPU Rate (USD) EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+
$19 - $ 20 (composite) March 2010 October 2010 July 2013
$21 - $ 22 (+10%) January 2010 June 2010 December 2012
$22 - $ 24 (+10%) January 2010 June 2010 June 2012
Conclusion:
ARPU has a key effect on the profitability, where every 10% increase in ARPU will effect the profitability timeline by 0.5
years. Meanwhile, if the composite ARPU is increased by 50% to a rate of $28 - $30, net profit can be realized in 3 years
(instead of 5 years)
ARPU Rate at $21 - $ 22 (+10% of composite) ARPU Rate at $22 - $ 24 (+20% of composite)
Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD
90,000 90,000
60,000 60,000
30,000 30,000
0 0
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
(30,000) (30,000)
EBITDA
(60,000) (60,000) EBITDA
EBIT
Cummulative EBIT
(90,000) Retained Profit (60,000) Cummulative
Retained Profit
Figure 9: Breakeven and profitability timelines by increasing ARPU rates by 10% or 20%
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APPLICATION NOTE
12. Model #3 – Financial Analysis based on Modem Subsidy
Profitability Timelines
Subsidy Rate EBITDA+ EBIT+ Cummulative NP+
CAPEX + 100% Modem Subsidy March 2010 October 2010 July 2013
CAPEX + 50% Modem Subsidy June 2009 January 2010 January 2012
Conclusion:
Modem subsidy has great impact on the overal financial results over the long run. If the Operator subsidizes 50% of
the modem, the overall OPEX can be reduced by more than 15% every year and profitability can be brought forward
by 1.5 years.
100% Modem Subsidy 50% Modem Subsidy
Unit: KUSD Unit: KUSD
90,000 90,000
60,000 60,000
30,000 30,000
0 0
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
(30,000) (30,000)
(60,000) EBITDA (60,000) EBITDA
EBIT EBIT
(90,000) Cummulative (60,000) Cummulative
Retained Profit Retained Profit
Figure 10: Breakeven and profitability timelines based on 100% and 50% modem subsidy models
These business models illustrate how earnings and profit can be significantly boosted through a proper business model,
which involves manipulating the projected subscriber numbers, ARPU rate or modem subsidy.
Realistically, a WiMAX Operator may not have full control over its subcriber acquisition efforts and market forces can
impact the projected number. On the other hand, affordability is a determining factor in increasing ARPU rates. Users are
very price sensitive – a pricing package that is outside their affordability league can jeopardize the Operator’s subscriber
acquisition efforts and in worst cases, result in high customer churn.
Hence, the more feasible option is the modem subsidy model which is also an attractive marketing strategy. By
promoting a package with price cuts, users would be instantly attracted to the discount and sign up. However, in order
to not hurt capital reserves of the Operator, it is important that the Operator acquires economically priced modems.
Does an economic modem fall short in terms of performance and usability? Not necessarily.
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APPLICATION NOTE
13. A Cost-Effective Solution for Superior Performance
At Greenpacket, we believe that an economic modem does not need to compromise on performance and usability. It
involves prudency and constructing modems that truly fit a user’s usage profile.
Greenpacket’s EX WiMAX Indoor VoIP Modem provides a cost-effective solution to deliver wireless broadband to
residential users which accounts for 68% of WiMAX subscribers (4GCounts). It is engineered to fulfill the fundamental
broadband need of home users by offering one data (LAN) and one voice (VoIP) port.
The rational behind this design is that users do not need to pay for what they do not use, in this case additional data and
voice ports. However, they are still empowered with a choice of connecting a router to the modem if the need more data
ports or a WiFi connection.
A cost-effective range gives Operators the opportunity to lower their subscriber acquisition cost and expand service
offerings for diverse market segments. EX also allows Operators to formulate price sensitive packages or create a variety
of packages that appeal to different connectivity needs of their subscribers.
Usage Scenario
EX boasts of the following features that offers superior performance.
Connect EX to a
WiFi router
nt
tu de ng
o rs hari
ser dS
al u an
ti adb
d en Bro
esi ers
/
g le r s
sin le U
A ltip
Mu
Figure 10: How Greenpacket’s EX Indoor VoIP Modem is put to use
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APPLICATION NOTE
14. No Compromise on Performance
EX boasts of the following features that offers superior performance.
Improved Indoor Performance
High gain antenna. EX is built-in with a 5dBi high gain antenna which increases the strength of received
WiMAX signals and improves indoor coverage.
Omni antenna. The multi-directional omni antenna radiates and receives WiMAX signals from any direction
for great flexibility in modem placement and all-direction performance.
Boosts Signal Strength
Switched Transmit Diversity Technology. EX is equipped with the next-generation antenna technology,
Switched Transmit Diversity Technology which has the ability to select the best antenna during transmission
to boost signal strength for better uplink performance.
External antenna. For added placement flexibility, EX can be affixed with an external antenna to improve
reception and placed deeper indoors (as opposed to near the window).
High Receive Sensitivity. EX has a high level of receiver sensitivity that surpasses WiMAX Forum’s
specified standard by 7.5dBm.
Maximize ROI
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 EX is constructed with high quality power amplifiers that achieve up to 27dBm transmission power. This
extends the base station’s cell coverage, thus requiring lesser infrastructure and maximizing ROI.
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APPLICATION NOTE
15. Expedite Your Profitability Now!
Profitablilty is the very core of any business. For WiMAX Operators, a profitable business model has to be crafted from
the start to ensure a sustainable business. At Greenpacket, we understand the demands placed on Operators. As such,
we specialize in giving y ou the capacity to constantly deliver cutting-edge services without exhausting your capital and
operating expenditures.
With Greenpacket, limitless freedom begins now!
Free Consultation!
If you would like a free consultation on how you can expedite your profitability, please contact us at
marketing.gp@greenpacket.com (kindly quote the reference code, AP0510 when you contact us).
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APPLICATION NOTE
16. References
1. The WiMAX Business Model and how is it doing now, Neil Shah, WiMAX360° (http://www.wimax360.com)
2. The Business of WiMAX: Impact of Technology, Architecture & Spectrum on the WiMAX Business Case, Motorola
3. Understanding the Total Cost of Ownership of Wireless Backhaul: Making the Right Choice at the Right Time,
DragonWave
4. WiMAXTM Applications for Utilities, WiMAX Forum & Senza Fili Consulting
5. Investing in 4G Networks for Developing Countries, 4G Trends (www.4gtrends.com)
6. AT&T’s iPhone Subsidy Deal (www.appadvice.com)
7. WiMAX Bridging The Broadband Digital Divide, http://www.americol.com
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APPLICATION NOTE