This document discusses predicting adoption curves for new mobile technologies. It notes that forecasts for adoption typically predict faster adoption than what actually occurs. Several examples are given of technologies like mobile TV, music, payments that were predicted to see faster adoption but saw limited usage. The document advocates identifying the problem and testing solutions with real customers on mobile devices to better understand if the solution solves the problem. It also recommends testing technology readiness and using researchers to help determine optimal pricing. The overall message is that mobile research is important to increase the chances of success for new mobile technologies and applications.
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