1. Climate change, food, and water security: critical issues
and cooperative strategies in an age of increased risk
and uncertainty for South Asia
GWP – IWMI Initiative
A ‘Plan B’ for Food Security
- The water variability connection
Colombo, February 24-25, 2011
Jan Lundqvist
Senior scientific advisor

2. Question
Is the exclusive focus on increased
production the best option
to achieve food security?
Take home message
No --- It makes sense to develop a Plan B,
a 9th MDG; reduce losses & waste by 50%

3. Mr Henry Kissinger at
First World Food Summit, 1974:
(then Secretary of State, USA)
”No child
will go to bed hungry
within ten years”

4. Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased
Utilization
Production

5. Undernourishment & overeating
1,000 mill undernourished
- numbers increasing?
and for the
1,400 mill overweight,
400 mill obese
– numbers increasing
(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)

6. Another 2 - 3 billion in a generation
- with dreams
- with the right to sense development
- much increased purchasing power

7. Demographic and GDP Trends
Population Urban GDP
(billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp)
1800: (T. R. Malthus) <1 913 (1820)
1900: 1.65
1950: just after WW2 2.5 7,006
2000: 6 3 56,593 (2005)
2050: ~9 ~ 6.5 193,318*)
*) trend projection
Increase: 50% 125% 400%
(2000 -2050)
Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.

8. Socio-economic trends;
Food supply, water & environmental footprints
Food supply in China,
Water footprint
1961 - 2005
Source: Junguo Liu & Huub Savenije; FAO FBS

9. Additional storage
peaked in the 70s
80
70
Reservoirs (number per year)
Other regions
60
Asia
50
Europe
40
North America
30
20
10
0
Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998
Source: Mats Lannerstad

10. Rainfall: Significant Uncertainty and Risk
Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009
400
BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918
1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929
1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940
1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO

11. Rainfed Agriculture;
Soil moisture /green water: size & management
Global warming;
Variability & return
flow speeded up
Options for food, water &
livelihood security
Land use that
permits infiltration • Storing water
of rainwater; • Storing produce
soil moisture/ • Market access
green water
Soil moisture
enough to over-
come effects of dry
spells?

12. The seven fat and the seven lean years
(Zimbabwe, 1910 – 2000)
Possibilities for
high yield
High risk;
low yield

13. The future

14. One planet but (some) live as if we had two
Photos: Christer Fuglesang, austronout
”Human demand on the
biosphere more than
doubled between
1961 – 2007”
WWF: Living Planet Report 2010

15. ….and make recommendations as if we had three
Plan A: Plan B:
Food production to increase by 70% by Post-harvest logistics; food/agr. produce;
2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. - storage, transport & market access
Similar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc.
Attention to use & food intake;
- Check definition on food security
In a context where:
Climate change may reduce potential Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010)
yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030
(Lobell et al. 2008 in Science)
Temperature increase may reduce yields
of corn, soya beans and cotton by
30 – 46% in the US in a century
(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)

16. Average intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/p, d

17. “It is distressing to note that so much
time is being devoted to the culture of
the plant, so much money spent on
irrigation, fertilization and crop protection
measures, only to be wasted about a
week after harvest”
(FAO, 1981)

18. What is the role of ”evidence-based” knowledge?
”The evolutionary pathway of Man”
Courtesy: Andrew Matthews, APN, Wellington, NZ

19. CONCLUSIONS
• Production & supply >> intake requirement
• Huge losses & waste = multiple cost
• Vulnerability of food system increases
• Food chain efficiency = water & other resources
use efficiency
Where is
the road ahead?