1.
neo-Malthusian
and
anti-Malthusian

2.
Lesson Target
To be able to discuss the two
opposing views (neo-Malthusian
and anti-Malthusian) of the
relationship between population
size and resource consumption.

3.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)

4.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
1798: Essays on the Principles of
Population Growth

5.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
1798: Essays on the Principles of
Population Growth
Finite optimum population size in
relation to food supply

6.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
1798: Essays on the Principles of
Population Growth
Finite optimum population size in
relation to food supply
“war, famine and disease”

7.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
1798: Essays on the Principles of
Population Growth
Finite optimum population size in
relation to food supply
“war, famine and disease”
Preventive checks: delay in time of
marriage, abstinence from sex in
marriage > reduce fertility rate

8.
Reverend Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
1798: Essays on the Principles of
Population Growth
Finite optimum population size in
relation to food supply
“war, famine and disease”
Preventive checks: delay in time of
marriage, abstinence from sex in
marriage > reduce fertility rate
Positive checks: lack of food, disease
and war > increase death rate

9.
Population grows at a exponential rate:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16 ....

10.
Population grows at a exponential rate:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16 ....
Food supply increases at arithmetic
rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ....

11.
neo-

12.
neo-
1.

13.
neo-
1.
a combining form meaning “new,”
“recent,” “revived,”“modified,” used in
the formation of compound words:
neo-Malthusian

14.
Club of Rome model: 1970

15.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model

16.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:

17.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population

18.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production

19.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production
natural resources

20.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production
natural resources
industrial production

21.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production
natural resources
industrial production
pollution

22.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production
natural resources
industrial production
pollution
Consider a lily patch doubling in size
each day ... it reaches a point when the
pond is half covered then ...

23.
Club of Rome model: 1970
aka Limits to Growth model
Five basic factors:
population
agricultural production
natural resources
industrial production
pollution
Consider a lily patch doubling in size
each day ... it reaches a point when the
pond is half covered then ...
Sudden and uncontrollable decline

24.
Exponential growth of
some factors until the
limited resource base
slows down growth.

25.
Paul Ehrlich, born 1932

26.
Paul Ehrlich, born 1932
Biologist and educator at Stanford
University

27.
Paul Ehrlich, born 1932
Biologist and educator at Stanford
University
1968: Population Bomb

28.
Paul Ehrlich, born 1932
Biologist and educator at Stanford
University
1968: Population Bomb
The battle to feed all of humanity is
over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions
of people will starve to death in spite of
any crash programs embarked upon
now. At this late date nothing can
prevent a substantial increase in the
world death rate ...

29.
Paul Ehrlich, born 1932
Biologist and educator at Stanford
University
1968: Population Bomb
The battle to feed all of humanity is
over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions
of people will starve to death in spite of
any crash programs embarked upon
now. At this late date nothing can
prevent a substantial increase in the
world death rate ...
Societies must take strong action to
curb population growth in order to
mitigate future disasters both
ecological and social

30.
Opposing view:
anti-Malthusian

31.
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)

32.
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
1965: The Conditions of Agricultural
Growth: The Economics of Agrarian
Change under Population Pressure

33.
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
1965: The Conditions of Agricultural
Growth: The Economics of Agrarian
Change under Population Pressure
People have the resources to increase
food production

34.
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
1965: The Conditions of Agricultural
Growth: The Economics of Agrarian
Change under Population Pressure
People have the resources to increase
food production
Knowledge and technology

35.
Ester Boserup (1910-1999)
1965: The Conditions of Agricultural
Growth: The Economics of Agrarian
Change under Population Pressure
People have the resources to increase
food production
Knowledge and technology
Increase in population stimulates a
change in agricultural technique

36.
When population and resource get
close there is the need and motivation
to development techniques

37.
Julian Simon (1932-1998)

38.
Julian Simon (1932-1998)
Professor of Business Administration -
University of Maryland

39.
Julian Simon (1932-1998)
Professor of Business Administration -
University of Maryland
1981: The Ultimate Resource

40.
Julian Simon (1932-1998)
Professor of Business Administration -
University of Maryland
1981: The Ultimate Resource
Increasing wealth and technology
make more resources available;
although supplies may be limited
physically they may be viewed as
economically indefinite as old
resources are recycled and new
alternatives are developed by the
market

41.
Talk about:
Population growth outstripping
resource availability and thus
limiting economic development