Presentation by Steve Staal (ILRI) at the APAARI High Level Policy Dialogue, 8 dec 2015

1. The Opportunities and Challenges
for Livestock and Fish R&D in Asia
Steve Staal
High Level Policy Dialogue on Investment in Agricultural Research for
Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific
Bangkok 8-9 Dec. 2015

2. Outline of the Presentation
 Trends in livestock and fish in Asia
 Implications and opportunities for
smallholders
 Constraints
 Framework for investment

3. Animal agriculture to 2050:
TRENDS
GLOBAL TRENDS:
Livestock demand and
production are increasing
rapidly in developing countries
•Unprecedented rising demand
for livestock commodities will
continue over the coming 5
decades
•Where and how most livestock
commodities are produced, sold
and consumed is changing
significantly

4. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006

5. Rising per capita consumption in
Asia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
PoultryMeat
PigMeat
MuttonGoatMeat
Milk
Eggs
BovineMeat
Livestock product kg/capita in Asia to 2050
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

6. Asian demand doubling to 2050
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2010
2050
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2010
2050
Demand for milk in
Asia will double to
2050 from 2010 levels
Demand for poultry,
mutton and bovine
meat will more than
double
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

7. Imports into Asia will rise
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PoultryMeat
PigMeat
MuttonGoatMeat
Eggs
BovineMeat
Particularly for pork and poultry
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model

8. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 2012
In$2004/06billions
Crops Livestock
Share of value of agricultural production shifting
to livestock
Source: Delgado (2014)
• The share of value of production in Asia has grown to nearly half of the
global total, and the share of livestock in value of agricultural production
had also increased significantly, both globally and in Asia.

9. Demand for fish growing
Sources: Phillips: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO
(2014).
Million tons
Capture fisheries stagnating.
Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demand

10. Supply of farmed fish needs to grow
rapidly
Sources: Phillips: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO
(2014b).
Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to
satisfy projected fish demand
Million tons

11. Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in Asia
Tons (2012)

12. Importance of fish in ASFs in Asia

13. Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries of Asia
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goa
t meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

14. Livestock multiplies rural incomes
Rural income multipliers are higher for livestock
than for other commodities and higher even
than non-agricultural activities.

15. Steinfeld et al. 2006
Large productivity gaps persist between rich and
poor countries, including in Asia
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
Factors are
combination of
feeds, animal
health, and
genetics,
combined with
poor management

16. Importance of fish for the diets of the poor
• Millions of people, particularly women and children, suffer
from deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc
• Fish, including small indigenous or farmed fish in
household ponds provide a ready source

17. Livestock sub-Sector in Asia: Issues
50-92% production from smallholders in mixed systems
The growing demand thus represents large opportunities for
smallholders and rural development
However
Complexity from coexistence of a range of production
systems
Large productivity gaps
Mostly informal wet markets (up to 80%)
Investment generally lower than in crops

18. Aquaculture in Asia: Issues
 Large and growing opportunities for farmed fish to address
the key micronutrients and protein needs among poor
consumers
 Asia is the center of aquaculture
However, constraints to involve the poor in aquaculture
remain
 Limited access to resources
 Availability and high price of external inputs
 Capital investment
 Poorly performing markets
 Access to improved genetics

19. Investing in research for livestock in Asia:
the next round of CRPs with partners
The new Livestock CGIAR Collaborative Research Program
features four research pillars, all linked to national partner
programs and priorities
1. Animal Health
2. Animal Genetics
3. Animal Feeds and Forages
4. Livelihoods and ASF Agri-food Systems
Cross cutting programs on Gender, Capacity Development
and Nutrition

20. Investing in research for fish in Asia: the
next round of CRPs with partners
The new Fish CGIAR Collaborative Research Program
features three research pillars, all linked to national partner
programs and priorities
1. Integrated Sustainable Aquaculture
2. Sustaining Smallscale Fisheries
3. Fish Valuechains and Nutrition
Cross cutting programs on Gender and Capacity Building

21. Summary and Conclusions
• Demand for livestock and fish in Asia is outpacing that for
staple crops
• Both comprise key components of food and nutritional
security and support rural development
• Production is unlikely to be able to match that demand,
threatening food and nutritional security
• Important to correct the imbalance of public investment to
reflect the changing shares in Ag GDP and demand
• A strong partnership framework of national and international
researchers is available and should be leveraged

22. CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR
Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivityof small-scale livestock and fish systems
in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world.
CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish
livestockfish.cgiar.org
Thank you for your attention