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Future of digital identity Programme summary - 15 dec 2018 lr

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Over the past few months we have run a series of expert workshops exploring the future of digital identity. Supported by Mastercard five events took place in London, Singapore, Sydney, San Francisco and Brussels building a collaborative expert view.

The project online and initial perspective is here https://www.futureagenda.org/news/the-future-of-digital-identity

The full report will be published in the New Year

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Future of digital identity Programme summary - 15 dec 2018 lr

  1. 1. The Future of Digital Identity – DRAFT SUMMARY Insights From Multiple Expert Discussions Around The World 15 December 2018
  2. 2. CONTENTS 01 Programme overview 02 Themes and Insights 03 Regional Comparison 04 Emerging Questions
  3. 3. 01 PROGRAMME OVERVIEW
  4. 4. Future of Digital Identity - Programme Overview This is an emerging view of the Future of Digital Identity - based on multiple views collected during a 2018 Open Foresight programme made possible by the generous sponsorship of Mastercard. 3 | Analysis and synthesis • Identification of cross- cutting themes and areas of greatest impact over the next ten years 2 | Exploration and iteration • Expert workshops • Regional perspectives • Addition of new insights through collaborative dialogue 1 | initial perspective • Synthesis of existing Future Agenda insights • Interviews and desk research • Meaningful baseline for discussion Emerging view of the next ten years 01 02 03
  5. 5. Workshops in 5 Countries Across 4 Continents The programme has accessed more than 140 informed experts with discussion focused on the key shifts and drivers most likely to have an impact on the Future of Digital Identity, over the next decade. San Francisco London Singapore Sydney Brussels
  6. 6. Corporates Technology Firms Government Regulators, NGOs Academia, Research, Consulting Start-Ups Influencers & Associations Diverse, Informed Expert Perspective This Open Foresight programme has brought together under the Chatham House Rule, a wide range of participants with varied perspectives to help build a richer view of implications, risks and opportunities.
  7. 7. 02 THEMES AND INSIGHTS
  8. 8. Thematic Lens Many of the insights generated have significant areas of overlap, both practical and theoretical. Their implications for DI stakeholders, and the ‘DI story’, become clearer when a cross-cutting thematic lens is applied. Communicating Identity System Design Empowering the Individual Unintended Consequences Growing the Standards Ethics by Design Building Blocks Still Matter System Vulnerabilities Digital Identity Victims Digital Rights The Inclusion Illusion Re-assessing Self Sovereignty Power and Influence Ecosystem Development Social Identities Multiple Bets Its Social not Technical Digital Life Rituals
  9. 9. Communicating Identity Digital Identity is a nebulous term that covers multiple technologies and digital and social interactions and transactions. Clarity around purpose, language, need, value and application is needed. • Digital Identity Literacy • Attributes Not Digital ID • Data IP Attribution • Proxy Digital IDs • Data Provenance • Secure Access Without Disclosure • Cost Reduction • Convenience Rules • Value Not Identity
  10. 10. Digital Identity Literacy A wholesale move toward Digital ID will require it’s own programme of education to teach people how to maintain and keep safe their Digital ID.
  11. 11. Attributes not Digital ID Users give permission for a third party to access the appropriate attribute mix required to complete a given exchange. ID may/may not feature.
  12. 12. Data IP Attribution Digital IDs enable the tracing of contribution of individual ‘chunks’ of data to data-driven services, allowing for all contributors to be recompensed.
  13. 13. Proxy Digital IDs As the pool of Personally Identifiable Information continues to grow, the need for Digital Identity reduces. Algorithms win the race for identity.
  14. 14. Data Provenance Digital ID enables provenance of all ‘owned data’ including data provided by, say, passive sensors in cars, much of which may not be personal at all.
  15. 15. Secure Access without Disclosure Driven by increased consumer awareness of continuing misuse, transacting while giving minimal (or no) information gains momentum.
  16. 16. Cost Reduction Digital ID enables service providers to reduce their transaction costs and accelerate the pace of innovation, both for them and for wider society.
  17. 17. Convenience Rules Continuing consumer appetite for convenience drives development of Digital ID, especially as many processes requiring formal ID feel so old-fashioned today.
  18. 18. Value, not Identity Consumers are only motivated to adopt Digital Identity through compelling use cases that deliver tangible value to them (e.g. time or cost saving).
  19. 19. Power and Influence As Digital Identity systems and networks emerge, power and influence will come to rest in different locations depending on different models. • Centralised or Distributed Digital Identity Systems? • Finders Keepers, Losers Weepers • Expanding Roles • Digital ID Platforms • Digital ID Federations • Influence of Scale • Aussie Rules
  20. 20. Centralised or Distributed Digital Identity Systems? Distributed implementation removes concerns of trust in single entities. Centralised systems bring uptake and interoperability. Nation states decide.
  21. 21. Finders Keepers, Losers Weepers Highly centralised Digital ID systems, provide potential for identity ‘keepers’ to hold vast amounts of user data across myriad different contexts.
  22. 22. Expanding Roles Roles/responsibilities in Digital ID systems grow from today’s verifiers and trust partners to legal guardians, delegated authorities, AI brokers, etc.
  23. 23. Digital ID Platforms Brokers emerge to help individuals easily manage their use of multiple ID’s, profiles and attributes across different contexts.
  24. 24. Digital ID Federations As with airline alliances (e.g. Star Alliance), Digital ID Federations form linking together Attribute Suppliers and different Digital ID Providers.
  25. 25. Influence of Scale China’s super apps and India Stack are already expanding into, and influencing, other geographies. Digital ID tech will ‘follow the money’.
  26. 26. Aussie Rules Learning from mistakes of others, and positioning itself as a leader in terms of cross-sector cooperation, Australia sets western Digital ID benchmarks.
  27. 27. Multiple Bets Different players in the Digital ID space come with differing priorities, visions and business models, each with different implications for future opportunities and markets. • New Digital ID Markets • Expanding Digital Service Provision • Data-less Business Models • Blueprint for Success • Many Internets • IoT Leads IoP
  28. 28. New Digital ID markets Digital ID has the potential to play a critical role in social and economic life. A new range of economic opportunities and markets will emerge around it.
  29. 29. Expanding Digital Service Provision With growing numbers of digital delivered services, Digital ID will enable an expansion of access to different, and new kinds, of service providers.
  30. 30. Data-less Business Models Innovations allow users to give access to data without sharing it. New models centre on positive, privacy-preserving, consumer propositions.
  31. 31. Blueprint for Success Global financial transactions and payments infrastructures will provide us with the ‘blueprint’ for building a truly interoperable Digital ID system.
  32. 32. Many Internets Lacking a single global solution, the internet splits into different realms: e.g. Open-Internet, Dark Internet and Internet Islands (local Digital ID systems).
  33. 33. IoT Leads IoP Commercial use cases for ‘things’ creates identity and attribute frameworks and infrastructure for objects. These are then applied to people.
  34. 34. Growing Standards Digital Identity standards will begin to emerge, with pace-setters reaping early benefits. But with first-mover advantage will come responsibility and accountability. • Implementation Matters • Setting the Standards • Digital ID Accountability • Regulations on the Fly
  35. 35. Implementation Matters Poor implementations will lead to massive data breaches, damaging faith in Digital ID service providers, or even the Digital ID concept as a whole.
  36. 36. Setting the Standards First-movers will develop standards for basis of global Digital ID systems. Consumers and governments decide the winners (e.g. Betamax vs VHS).
  37. 37. Digital ID Accountability Clear accountability and good data stewardship is seen as key. Strong punishment emerges in response to Digital ID misuse and reputation damage.
  38. 38. Regulation on the Fly Digital ID will land and expand very quickly. Regulators will be faced with the task of ‘building the aeroplane whilst flying it’.
  39. 39. Integrating Ethics The field of Digital Identity is nascent enough that building truly ethical principles and systems is still possible, helping to avoid negative unintended consequences. • Ethics By Design • Unified Digital ID Ethical Principles • Hyper Accurate Advertising • Super-Surveillance • Social Scoring
  40. 40. Ethics by Design Sensitivity of Digital ID data, and the potential for catastrophic or malign mis-use, drives ‘ethical by design’ standards that go beyond compliance.
  41. 41. Unified Digital ID Ethical Principles Digital ID ethics will follow the bio-ethics lead with foundational principles: e.g. Beneficence, Non-maleficence, Autonomy and Justice (and Explicability).
  42. 42. Hyper-accurate Advertising Users practiced in social media’s ‘data for advertising’ model, consent to sharing their ID for this purpose, resulting in hyper accurate advertising.
  43. 43. Super-surveillance Digital ID’s highly accurate and relatively clean surveillance data, will lead to mass surveillance in some states and market economies.
  44. 44. Social Scoring Digital ID attributes enable monitoring of ‘good behaviour’ e.g. carbon footprint tracking. In the hands of some, this evolves into social scoring.
  45. 45. The Building Blocks Still Matter Interoperability is likely to emerge first in regard to authentication and verification, with interoperability around identity attributes lagging behind and influenced by it. • Something Owned, Something Known, Something You • New Bio-Metric Fingerprints • Trust Cocktails • Robust Authentication Equals Trust
  46. 46. Something Owned, Something Known, Something You Authentication typically features something you own, you know and you are. Innovating unique identifiers leads to new ways of thinking about who we are.
  47. 47. New Biometric Fingerprints New identity markers, including our ‘routines’, prove useful in detecting fraud, especially where AI sees changes in behavioural patterns.
  48. 48. Trust Cocktails As ‘things’ are given Digital IDs, people are no longer certain of who or what they are trusting - app, service, device or person - or if they should care.
  49. 49. Robust Authentication Equals Trust Strong authentication processes will be the key factor in determining overall levels of trust in the reliability and security of a given Digital ID system.
  50. 50. Digital Rights Digital Identity rights could become fundamental human rights. DI implementations could also become the means by which we exercise wider emerging data rights. • Digital Rights Management • Transparent Exchange • Assertion of My Digital Rights • Management of Digital ID rights • Digital ID as a Fundamental Human Right • The Un-Digital
  51. 51. Digital Rights Management Digital ID provides the vehicle for managing digital rights – when to be anonymous, when to be seen, when its ok to be monitored, etc.
  52. 52. Transparent Exchange Digital ID drives transparency in the value exchange between consumers and services, curtailing current ’surveillance capitalism’ business models.
  53. 53. Assertion of My Digital Rights A DI Bill of Rights is already demanded by many. How this is built, by who, what it includes, and critically, how it is enforced, will be hotly contested.
  54. 54. Management of Digital ID Rights As Digital ID becomes part of society’s critical infrastructure, rules emerge on how access rights can be given, taken away, redressed and restored.
  55. 55. Digital ID as a Fundamental Human Right Digital Identity becomes a fundamental human right. Governments ensure both access and equity for all, while business is made to respect this right. Image courtesy of: Interaction Institute for Social Change | Artist: Angus Maguire
  56. 56. The Un-Digital With the arrival of Digital ID rights comes the inalienable right to be non-digital, and the need to serve the ‘Digital Amish’ who choose to opt out.
  57. 57. The Inclusion Illusion Those needing access to basic services constitute a meaningful audience for Digital ID, and are likely to be enthusiastic early-adopters, despite being a non-traditional target for commercial organisations. • Digital Identity - The First Wave • Stateless Netizens • Digital Citizenship • The Case For Digital Inclusion
  58. 58. Digital Identity - The First Wave Early adopters will include those who need to become familiar with Digital ID in order to access basic (digitally adapting) government services.
  59. 59. Stateless Netizens Digital ID for some (e.g. displaced peoples) becomes more important than citizenship, leading to societal groups based on new, shared attributes.
  60. 60. Digital Citizenship Digital IDs issued at birth and/or multi-lateral and global bodies issuing and protecting Digital ID, gives greater meaning and usefulness to them.
  61. 61. The Case for Digital Inclusion Digital ID systems will go some way towards addressing access and exclusion issues of the 1 billion+ people lacking legal identity documents.
  62. 62. Re-Assessing Self-Sovereignty The data-driven world has already led to a loss of individual agency. The advent of AI may accelerate this trend. Digital Identity could help us to re-assert our sovereignty and agency in a data-driven world. • Me, Myself and I • Erosion of Agency • Personalised Controlled Exchanges • Self-Sovereign ID • Personal Gatekeeping • Balanced Proof of Identification • Zero-Knowledge Proofs • Verified but Incognito
  63. 63. Me, Myself and I Digital ID users maintain deliberately separated identities and attribute stores. Providers offer context-based, Digital-ID-as-a-service solutions.
  64. 64. Erosion of Agency Consumer comfort in outsourcing agency to ‘things’ drives a rich market of data driven technology deciding for us. Erosion of human agency results.
  65. 65. Personalised, Controlled Exchanges Digital ID gives people greater control over access to their personal data, and encourages transparency of service-providers in onward use.
  66. 66. Self-sovereign ID Calls for self-sovereign digital ID - or the ‘controlled sharing’ principles on which it is based - are likely to increase, as are attempts to build it.
  67. 67. Personal Gatekeeping Consent management systems and platforms emerge to help individuals more easily ‘trust in an otherwise trustless system (of machines)’.
  68. 68. Balanced Proof of Identification Digital users become more demanding about ensuring they ‘get as well as they give’ with regard to verification of those whom they choose to engage.
  69. 69. Zero Knowledge Proofs Future Digital Identities will include attributes that are harder to mimic or steal. Authentication will occur without data exchange, limiting the data at risk.
  70. 70. Verified but Incognito For more private contexts and use-cases, properly authenticated, but wholly anonymous identities are deployed within the Digital ID eco-system.
  71. 71. It's Social Not Technical Digital Identity is largely seen as a technical challenge, but ID and Identity are about social relationships and will thus bring attendant complexities into their digital realisation. • Local Digital Citizenship • Merging of Identity and ID • From Tech to Society • Digital ID as Belonging
  72. 72. Local Digital Citizenship Distrust of surveillance and distant institutions leads to hyper-local identity and authentication by the people we know and communities we live in.
  73. 73. Merging of Identity and ID As ID management and attribute systems collect more detailed digital user histories, our Identity and ID will merge, with unknowable consequences.
  74. 74. From Tech to Society Today Digital ID is a tech challenge. Pressure increases for it to be managed as a social challenge with tech held accountable for decisions made today.
  75. 75. Digital ID as Belonging Just as individuals identify with others (e.g. location, faith, custom) in society, so it is in the digital space. Cultural and social sensitivities remain key.
  76. 76. Digital Life Rituals/Stages Digital Identity creators will need to think hard about the full life-cycle of a digital identity and how it will incorporate the changes, life-stages and rituals of human life-cycles. • Right to be Forgotten • Immortal ID
  77. 77. Right to be Forgotten The right to be forgotten is increasingly recognised in a world with digital memories. Implementation in Digital ID eco-systems is a significant challenge.
  78. 78. Immortal ID Immortal IDs form - the sum of our digital histories and a collection of all digital attributes. But who owns and controls them? Under what consent?
  79. 79. System Vulnerabilities Digital Identity systems are potentially both a solution, and a new frontline, in the battle for cyber security. They could re-define and re-shape approaches to cyber risk, defense and attack. • Re-evaluation of Cyber Risk • Enhanced Cyber-Security • Avoiding Honeypots • The Big Fake • Null Attributes
  80. 80. Enhanced Cyber Security Strong and secure systems of digital identification will play a significant role in enhancing cyber security for individuals, organisations and states.
  81. 81. Avoiding Honeypots The need for cyber protection ensures that distributed data models prevail over those that seek centralization, except in authoritarian regimes.
  82. 82. Re-evaluation of Cyber-risk Breaches to digital ID systems have the potential to cause catastrophic damage. Organisations will radically re-evaluate their investment to mitigate it.
  83. 83. The Big Fake Fake Digital IDs, unlike fake passports, have the potential to be used in many contexts at the same time, scaling up the consequences involved.
  84. 84. Null-attributes Identity attributes, currently understood as unique (e.g. fingerprint) become unusable or ‘null’ as they are exposed in continued breaches.
  85. 85. Digital Identity Victims History teaches us that formalising identity can lead to great atrocities and countless victims. The data and applications associated with Digital Identity carry high risk for individuals, states and societies. • Competing Interest Areas • Identity Victims • Offsetting Unintended Consequences • Benefits of Catastrophe • The Cost of Convenience • Increased Accountability Removed Honeypots – as also in System Vulnerabilities sections – presume we want to d-dupe
  86. 86. Competing Interest Areas A battle for ‘ownership’ of the identity space grows, highlighting ideologies: e.g. social good, economic opportunity, privacy, national security, social order.
  87. 87. Identity Victims History is littered with horrific examples of the consequences of formally assigning identity markers (race, religion etc.). Digital ID will be no different.
  88. 88. Offsetting Unintended Consequences Specialist thinking emerges, particularly sociological, around the potential unintended consequences of rapid deployment and adoption of Digital ID.
  89. 89. Benefits of Catastrophe Digital ID catastrophe is almost inevitable, but will be a stimulus to drive positive changes in awareness of secure identity and authentication.
  90. 90. The Cost of Convenience Convenience remains as a core driver, but with the cost of teaching poor behaviours, e.g., learning laziness, path of least resistance, etc.
  91. 91. Increased Accountability Digital ID increases accountability in public online spaces, where online behaviours can be traced back to offline identities.
  92. 92. 03 REGIONAL COMPARISON
  93. 93. Regional Comparison – Top 5 The chart shows those insights which featured in the ‘top 5’ according to relative impact on Digital ID over the next ten years, in at least one of the workshops. San Francisco • Null Attributes • Me, Myself and I • Verified But Incognito • Super-Surveillance • Digital ID Accountability Sydney • Management of Digital ID Rights • Super-Surveillance • Digital ID Accountability • The Big Fake • The Case for Digital Inclusion London • Personalised Controlled Exchanges • Stateless Netizens • The Big Fake • Convenience Rules • The Case For Digital Inclusion Brussels • Social Scoring • Ethics By Design • Influence of Scale • Personalised Controlled Exchanges • The Case for Digital Inclusion Singapore • Setting the Standards • Enhanced Cyber-Security • Robust Authentication Equals Trust • Convenience Rules • The Case for Digital Inclusion
  94. 94. Regional Comparison - Detail The chart shows how the top 15 programme insights were ‘scored’ according to relative impact over the next ten years, in different workshops. NB. not all insights were shown in each workshop. Insight London Singapore Sydney San Francisco Brussels Average No of Workshops Digital ID Accountability 13 15 15 14.44 3 Verified but Incognito 13 11 15 13.19 3 Social Scoring 13 14 13.13 2 The Case for Digital Inclusion 15 13 14 8 15 12.92 5 Management of Digital ID Rights 13 13 13 12.78 3 Influence of Scale 13 13 12.50 2 Proxy Digital IDs 13 12.50 1 The Big Fake 13 13 13 10 12.21 4 Super-surveillance 10 10 15 14 12.19 4 Robust Authentication Equals Trust 12 15 9 13 12.06 4 Expanding Roles 13 10 13 11.94 3 Enhanced Cyber Security 10 15 10 11.67 3 Stateless Netizens 13 10 13 10 13 11.60 5 Trust Cocktails 13 11 13 9 11.46 4 Convenience Rules 14 10 9 13 11.31 4
  95. 95. 04 EMERGING QUESTIONS
  96. 96. What Do You Think? As an open foresight programme we would welcome your thoughts to help build a stronger perspective. What do you agree or disagree with, what is missing and what will be the key impacts and implications? Thank you.
  97. 97. Some Key Questions for Digital ID Eco-system Organisations What identity / data is real? Whose identity attributes can I trust? What role do we wish to play in the identity ecosystem? How does personal data mesh with machine data? What is our ethical position regarding digital identity?
  98. 98. Some Key Questions for Industry In a world of D-ID, will customers still want to share data with us? How will we ensure that we are ‘trustworthy’? What data do we need collect in the future? How will we be able to comply when customers assert digital rights? Can we develop new, privacy-preserving customer propositions?
  99. 99. Some Key Questions for Individuals and Society How can my personal digital information facilitate my life? How will I manage my digital attributes? Who do I trust to help me do this? Do I want my personal data to help society? What are my digital rights and how who protects them?
  100. 100. Some Key Questions for Regulators and Government What kind of identity ecosystem do we wish to support? What role will Government data about individuals play? How can we ensure that digital identity benefits society? How do we ensure that no citizen is excluded? What steps must we take to prevent unintended consequences?
  101. 101. Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda

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