20141111 tinker tuesday prototype to product
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So, you want to build a hardware product? Every so often, a device comes along that changes the way we live our daily lives and things are never the same again. With today’s digital technology, such devices may come more frequently than in the past – personal gadgets you cannot live without. What’s inside? What makes it tick? How do you find out? In this sharing session, Mark will provide an introduction to hardware hacking and why it matters, going through some quick tips on getting cosy with hardware to find out what makes it tick.
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20141111 tinker tuesday prototype to product
- 1. The path of Prototyping Mark Wong to Production www.omgbazinga.com
- 2. WHAT WE DO
- 3. WHAT WE DO
- 4. Congratulations, you’ve finished your first
- 8. The push into prototyping. Or Not? What’s NEW? What are the new product’s attributes and characteristics? What’s Novel? What is new in the product that others on the market doesn’t offer? What’s it For? What is the purpose or function of the new product? Your new offering must meet an unmet need Does the technology exist? Do we need any new technology to produce the product? Are there any issues with the product concerning government regulations, safety, and environmental issues, patent infringements, or other possible hang-ups? What’s gonna pay for it? Make sure you already have customers lined up, people who say “I want it!” How much will be the manufacturing cost, and how much will people willing to pay for the product?
- 9. Prototyping is a holistic context of bringing a new product to market, rather than as a standalone process. A prototype developer should be able to offer engineering expertise in all aspects of the process. http://www.phillipsmedisize.com/sites/default/files/whitepaper/Prototyping%20White%20Paper.pdf
- 10. Technology Development Readiness levels (TDRL) 1 • Basic principles defined, technology conception and/or application formulated 2 • Experimental technological design, technological evaluation and POC design 3 • Breadboard validation in a laboratory, technological development, completion of POC 4 • POC prototype technology demonstration in the relevant environment 5 • System/subsystem model development, pre-manufacturing considerations, system integration 6 • Alpha and Beta trials by end-users, development iteration improvements, IP filing and protection 7 • System robust testing, commercial design incorporation. Manufacturing, packaging and labeling 8 • Actual system Launch, proven through successful operations, ready for full-scale deployment 9 • Sales. Distribution standards, dealership, wholesaler, manufacturer maturity 10 • Mature Technology with commercial sales Research Applied R&D, Demonstration Pre-market Manufacture Commercial Deployment Post-market Surveillance
- 11. The Path to Product – TRL1 to 4 http://www.gidcompany.com/blog/product-prototype-development-2/product-prototype-development-tips-to-get-started-with-your- new-product-prototype-development/ http://www.phillipsmedisize.com/sites/default/files/whitepaper/Prototyping%20White%20Paper.pdf Breadboard prototype (TRL2) Mock-ups and sketches (TRL1) Physical Proof-of-Concept (POCs) (TRL 2-4) Digital to physical functional replicas that meet specifications. Iterative stage. POC to POV, robustness testing, (TRL4-5) Transforming the Physical into the Functional. BOM finalization. Alpha, Beta testers in actual environment (TRL 6) Pre-manufacturing considerations, preparation for market entry
- 12. Types of Prototypes Breadboard prototype • Basically a working model of your idea • Basic function • Demonstrate functionality and communicate your idea to potential model makers or manufacturers Presentation prototype (Proof-of-Concept) POC • representation of the product as it will be manufactured. • Used for promotional purposes • Must should be able to demonstrate what the product can do, but it is not necessarily an exact copy of the final product. • sale price, materials, manufacturing costs, marketing, safety factors, • Sales and distributed, and the profit margin. If you plan to license your invention to a manufacturer, you can often do so with a model." Pre-RTM prototype • This type of prototype is for all practical purposes the final version of the product. • However, keep the physical appearance aside for a while and test the functionality, because if it functions well, then you just have to polish the aesthetics. • Alpha/Beta testing in this phase
- 13. The lesson is SIMPLE You must first PROVEthat your technology WORKS consistently before going into manufacturing Iterate. Iterate. Iterate.
- 14. Product Lifecycles Affect Revenue Sensitivity to TTM http://info.arteris.com/blog/bid/64100/Calculating-Late-TTM-Revenue-Loss-Part-2-Industry-Product-Lifecycles
- 15. Buy $ Build
- 16. Considerations • increasing functionality • Increasing complexity of new technologies • More product features, certification • increased performance pressures • Time to market pressure • Can you build it quickly? • Does the technology change rapidly? • Motor vs Processor • Can a ready-made module do the job specification? http://player.vimeo.com/video/110359218
- 17. $ BUY BUILD Integrated power and functionality Quick plug-and-play Tested operation Parts that quickly go EOL/NRND Faster time to market (TTM) Custom specifications Smaller surface area Flexibility of component parts and suppliers Optimized design (power / signal) Larger surface area, may not be power optimized Redundant component sections Expensive (more manufacturer intermediates) Requires iterative testing Selection Integration manufacture and test Longer time to market (TTM) • TRL 2-4 • No expertise • Test various options quickly • Iterative prototypes for POC • TRL 3+ • Experienced and capable design team • Your company can retain the technology resources for the duration of numerous iterations during the product life cycle
- 18. Accelerating Product time-to-market Part 1 Component 2 Component 3 Product Component 4 Component 5 Reduce the number of custom components http://www.kodak.com/global/mul/business/solutions/files/accelerating_product_time.pdf
- 19. Congratulations, you’ve reached TRL3/4
- 20. New considerations, New headaches Bill-of-Materials (BOM) How many parts are in your product? Open market or custom fit? Your factory partner is unlikely to share the cost breakdown, so you’ll need to tap into every network you have to compile this due diligence and decide if that (insert potentially-unnecessary-but-cool-part-you- cannot-live-without here) is really worth it. Packaging, screws, manuals, everything. Key component risk If your invention or prototype relies on one specific unique technology, is it a single unique-selling- point? Can it be copied or replicated easily? If not, why? If yes, why? Can you use an alternative? Is there a cheaper alternative? E.g. Arduino vs a cheaper microprocessor Stand-alone modules VS custom design Using existing standards, development kits may not translate well into a final product. NRND / Eol Not Recommended for New Designs. End-of-Life. Do not use these parts in any part of your BOM.
- 24. New considerations, New headaches Proof of Value Prototype vs cost to manufacture. Pull out your cash-flow statement. The cash-flow statement? A great prototype will tell you if you can make the product; the cash-flow statement will tell you if you should. Before production, you must understand the numbers of how your prototype translates into a manufactured item. Suppliers Specific component? Note the lead-time? Costing. Ask a trusted network for referrals. Visit them, and ask for samples, if the component is obscure, maybe you should use an alternative. Potential to scale Crowdfunding projects have a wealth of case studies for learning what it takes to scale. What will delay the prototype? Missing deadlines due to unforeseen complexities in manufacturing costs associated with scaling from prototype to production. Do trial manufacturing runs. Customs, export restrictions Batteries, FCC, CE, radio-communications will hamper international couriers / freight
- 25. What you must do – TRL3+ If you are creating a product from your prototype ideas.. Define your specifications Write down all your product specifications and requirements. This is the first step in Quality control. Make robust prototypes that can scale Perform proper prototyping. Make Proof-of-Concept and Design Prototypes. Make in small quantities, making 10 to 100 of them will highlight potential problems in manufacturing. Implement design for manufacturing principles into the Design Prototype. Take ownership Do not outsource a design iteration. Take ownership of your design and sign off on all design changes, only you know what’s best and you must know everything in your prototype. Prototype Verification (POC to MVP) Ensure that the design is proven and consistent in performance prior to production kick-off. Identify your Minimum Value Product (MVP), your POC is now your pre- MVP.
- 26. http://prafulla.net/wp-content/sharenreadfiles/2013/07/480546/how-start-a-startup-infographic.png
- 27. Tools are important, but not everything Do not buy cheap tools
- 28. Congratulations, you’ve reached TRL5+ The Path to a product… Is only the beginning Let’s talk about economics If you are taking your product design into production tooling… Short break…
- 30. http://i.imgur.com/fCRiSkG.jpg Develop supplier relationships
- 31. Intangibles can only be seen in person Manufacturing fingerprints - Nobody pays for new goods that look used. This unexpected quality problem cost us time, money, and relationship tension with the factory. Appearance and Packaging It’s practically its own product. Reprints, poor packaging that cannot survive shipping, mishandled appearances will affect sales. If you need to ship goods almost any distance, you need to protect them with inside boxes. This cost is low, but if your factory partner isn’t on top of it, you will receive damaged goods that you own and cannot sell. http://i.imgur.com/fCRiSkG.jpg
- 34. Selling price of my products? Value $ Pricing, market share, brand awareness Pricing Cost-plus, Competition-driven, mROI, Cost-in-Use Value-in-Use. Must be value-based-pricing Minimum Order Quantity (MOQ) Economic Production Quantity (EPQ) MOQ PO (Purchase Order) + Volume BOM + Setup time + Tooling + labour + profit margin + Freight + tax + transaction costs
- 35. Value of my products? Price: $1.00 ~300’ length ~$0.003/inch. Cost to hang a poster: $0.01 Price: $5.00 12 strips $0.416 / strip Cost to hang a poster: $1.66 166 Times the cost! Consumers will always compare with existing products http://www.slideshare.net/Brioneja/value-in-use-analysis-for-new-product-introductions-2176479
- 36. Pre-pre-kickstarter sales. Good idea to sell initial batch prototypes to your beta customers. This will gauge actual market need / desire and will also generate an initial source of funds for your first production batch deposit. http://i.imgur.com/fCRiSkG.jpg
- 37. MOQ / EPQ Quantity Total Cost Holding cost Ordering costs Annual Cost Optimal order Minimum total cost http://flylib.com/books/en/3.287.1.217/1/ http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/business-stat/stat-data/forecast.htm
- 38. Optimal Selling price (single product type) Selling Price Time Sales Cost Price Total Volume Category Maximum publicity Costs ($) Competitor Entrant Break-even region Product maturity or novelty decline Assuming products can be shipped to retailers
- 39. Perceived vs Actual Value – Identifying MVP Price Benefit Manage your customer’s expectations Perceived value affects purchase decisions Perceived Value Brands. Image. Accessories.. Product Features Neutral Customer expectations Customer’s expectations greater than product benefit Product benefit greater than customer expectations MVP MVP+ Feature 1 Feature 2 Feature 3 Feature 4… Absolute price/unit is irrelevant. We must compare cost in use and value in use.
- 40. Multiple run Average cost curves Cost/Unit long run average total cost curve (LRAC) Minimum efficient scale (MES) or MAC (minimum average cost) Output - Units / month 1/3 MES 1/2 MES Economies of scale, falling LRAC Diseconomies of scale, rising LRAC http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-micro-economies-diseconomies-of-scale.html http://marketingscience.info/assets/documents/205/10743.pdf
- 41. Selling price of my products? BOM @ MES_EPQ BOM @ MOQ 4-10x BOM Bill of Materials @ Minimum Efficient Scale at Economic Production Quantity Now you know how much it costs per unit of your prototype/product-to-be Bill of Materials @ Minimum Efficient Scale at Economic Production Quantity Your MOQ is usually your biggest startup cost! Suppliers have low profit margins and must produce large quantities to break-even. Return-of-Investment (ROI) • SHIPPING FULFILLMENT • Taxes • international delivery • transaction cuts • TTM (Time to market) • Iteration A good estimate will be 4-10 times the selling price of your BOM. Ask your customers if that is a fair selling price.
- 42. Reorder point – production and consumption (Avg demand x Lead time ) + Safety Stock = Reorder point Time http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/business-stat/stat-data/forecast.htm http://flylib.com/books/en/3.287.1.224/1/ Inventory Imperfect Quality / Defective goods Safety stock Re-order point Delivery Lead time
- 43. Managing Defects Product defect severity can be broken down into four categories: Low Very limited customer impact. Low severity defects should only be fixed in the early prototyping phases and should be ignored in all later stages of the lifecycle. Medium Moderate customer impact. Medium severity defects should drive changes the early stages of the product development lifecycle but should not be resolved during production. Serious High customer impact. Serious defects should be fixed as soon as feasible and rolled into prototype testing or production. Critical Safety or regulatory issue. Critical defects should always drive an immediate change and the production line should be shut down if the product is in production. http://leardon.com/how-to-successful-product-change-3-tips-for-product-change-management
- 45. Shipping, customs and tax At some point, you’ll need to get your goods from the factory to somewhere else. Whether you use a plane, train, truck, or ship, Before that, unless your factory partner is within driving distance, you will be doing a lot of business with FedEx to get samples back and forth. It doesn’t sound like much, but will add up. http://i.imgur.com/fCRiSkG.jpg
- 47. http://leardon.com/product-development-considerations-for-2012 Summary If you are creating a prototype from your product idea (TRL 2-4) • Write down all your product specifications and requirements prior to creating a prototype . • Perform proper prototyping. Make Proof-of-Concept and Design Prototypes. • Select the best supplier who can take you from the beginning to end of the product development lifecycle. • Take ownership of your design and sign off on all design changes. • Implement design for manufacturing principles into the Design Prototype. If you are taking your product design into production tooling (TRL 5-6) • Know the price at all order quantities. • Decide on the best place to manufacture your product with the best suppliers. • Properly qualify the product using Production Prototypes. If you are starting to produce inventory of your product (TRL 8-10) • Sign off on all manufacturing and design changes. • Buy only the quantity of products that is necessary for immediate sales. • Don’t Pay until quality is confirmed.
- 48. The Pebble Case study • Production tooling • Large component order • Global Bluetooth certification • Late deliveries • Failed Quality Control $10.26M on Kickstarter February 2012 Customers Received their products inPulse $375,000 Y-combinator 2009 2012 2013
- 49. The GoPro Case study 2008 - Digital HERO 5 2002 2007-’08 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Founded Competitor Entrants
- 50. How can we help you? • Consultation advice • Prototyping services • Dev boards to custom electronics • Custom projects • Custom enclosures • TRL 3 to 6 • IdeaBins
- 51. How do we keep costs low? Hi Volume, Low Mix Hi Mix, Low Volume
- 52. Seriously l o n g j o u r n e y Before you will see a return of your investment But the rewards and returns Worth it are well If not now Then when?
Notas do Editor
- Almost every day, a new product hits the store shelves with the aim to earn name, fame, and of course dollars in the commercial market. However, have you ever wondered what went into getting the greatest and the latest slotted into the market place. Every product, before you rest your eyes on them, undergoes a lengthy and vigorous evolution process. There are some quality checkpoints that a product to be developed has to clear on its way to hitting the market, and they are the product design phase, the product prototyping phase, and the final, bulk manufacturing phase. For entrepreneurs¸ after you have an innovative idea for a new product, you need to determine all the details. Here we would like to share some practical questions, which you should ask yourself before you make any move:
- Get Started - Drafting software, such as CAD and its variations. First of all, generate a digital mock-up of your product that can be viewed on a 3D plane. Check, whether the connections, balance and angles are mathematically sound. Signal conditioning, Power management Tolerances, Physical collisions
- There are three major types or stages of prototype creation, each of which can be used by the enterprising entrepreneur in securing financing and/or a licensee. http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/small/Op-Qu/Prototype.html#ixzz3HQc0yfxh
- Semiconductors are the Most Sensitive to TTM Pressures The critical semiconductor components within these products, such as applications processors and mobile phone modems, have a LONGER development time than the actual end product and a correspondingly SHORTER useful product life span. For example, from personal experience and anecdotal evidence, we have about a 1.5 year development time for applications processors with a 2 year product life span. But a mobile phone only takes one year to design and build and lasts on the market for less than two years! Because it takes tens of millions of dollars of fixed expense to develop one of these chips, being late to market by only a month or two can mean little or no profit from the chip. Late TTM for a semiconductor vendor is a profit killer.
- Select the best supplier who can from start to end of the product development lifecycle. Test your suppliers in the supply chain before production. Deal with a single supplier that is capable of providing not only all of the technologies and engineering expertise necessary for producing a finished product, but can also manage all of the elements in the process. The more experienced and widely capable the supplier you select, the greater the likelihood of success.
- Define your specifications - Know the price at all order quantities.
- Know your vendor
- Properly qualify the product using Production Prototypes in the production trial batches. If you are starting to produce inventory of your product, you must sign off on all manufacturing and design changes. Reject all defects. Correct at this stage. Buy only the quantity of products that is necessary for immediate sales. Quality. Know your factory partner as intimately as possible, especially if you are small. If you take your production offshore, this relationship will be much harder to manage without outside help, and even then it will still be hard. Use your imagination and work with your prototyper and factory partner to understand the steps required to translate handmade or low-volume production into large quantities. My company made a thousand mistakes by not understanding how factories work.
- volume price breaks that factor in time to set up and take down your project plus required labour and material resources with some profit margin for the factory. Sometimes MOQs are negotiable. Made in China? Probably in the thousands and unless you are a big company.
- volume price breaks that factor in time to set up and take down your project plus required labour and material resources with some profit margin for the factory. Sometimes MOQs are negotiable. Made in China? Probably in the thousands and unless you are a big company.
- Know your vendor
- EPQ is the amount of inventory to be ordered at one time for purposes of minimizing annual inventory costs.
- The actual value of an item is a measure that is related to the cost that it takes to produce it and sell it for a profit. For example, when a product is manufactured and sold without any brand names or promises, the actual value is the amount that it would go for in the open market. The actual value is what the product is actually worth without any expectations from the customer or the seller. The perceived value is very different from the actual value of a product. The perceived value is what a customer believes the product is worth. This perception is formed by the opinions of the market and by the benefits that the customer expects to receive if he makes a purchase. The product may be sold for much more than what it cost to manufacture because of the perception of the customer. In some cases, the perception of the value may be less than what the actual value of the product is. Brand Names One factor that plays a vital role in the perceived value of a product is the brand name. Brand names that are well-known often add perceived value to a product. For example, clothing typically does not cost much to manufacture as it only involves some material and labor. Certain brands of clothing sell for much more than others simply because they have a logo or a brand name on them. The right brand name can make a big difference for some customers. Purchase Decisions The perceived value of a product also impacts purchasing decisions. If the perceived value of the product is greater than the actual price, the customer is more willing to buy. For example, if the customer believes that a particular shirt should cost $50, and he sees it for sale for $20, he is more likely to purchase it. If the perceived value and the price are closer, the urgency for the purchase disappears. A minimum viable product is “that product which has just those features and no more that allows you to ship a product that early adopters see and, at least some of whom resonate with, pay you money for, and start to give you feedback on”. value must be shared between seller and customer, customer will not switch from alternative technology unless new offering carries enough value to make the switch worthwhile. Customers do not buy products, they hire products to do a job.
- MES is the minimum level of output required to fully exploit economies of scale in the long run
- It is essentially a single formula for determining the optimal order size that minimizes the sum of carrying costs and ordering costs. The model formula is derived under a set of simplifying and restrictive assumptions, as follows : Demand is known with certainty and is relatively constant over time. No shortages are allowed. Lead time for the receipt of orders is constant. The order quantity is received all at once.
- Know your vendor
- Know your vendor
- Know your vendor
- http://mashable.com/2012/05/07/pebble-watch-before-kickstarter/
- before you start earning any money