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Evolution of Interest Rate Curves

             Special CPT Seminar
    Francois Choquet, Advanced Specialist
               Bloomberg L.P.
              December 8, 2010
Amounts outstanding of over-the-
           counter (OTC) derivatives
                                (in Billions of USD)
         Credit
                     Equity
         Default
                   Linked, 6,
       Swaps, 31                Commodity,
                      867                     Breakdown by Interest Rate Instruments
          ,057                     3,273
 Foreign
                                                   Total             FRAs
Exchange,
                                                  options            12%
  62,933
                                                   11%
                                 Interest
                                Rate, 478,
                                   092                      Swaps
                                                             77%




     Source: BIS June 2010 S/A Survey
Floating Rate Notes (Libor)
            Amount Outstanding in millions of US$
2,000,000

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000
                                                    1 mo
1,000,000
                                                    3 mo
 800,000
                                                    6 mo
 600,000

 400,000

 200,000

       -
              AUD     EUR    GBP    JPY    USD

 Source: Bloomberg
Fixed to Float Bonds (Libor)
               Amount Outstanding in millions of US$
  300,000.00


  250,000.00


  200,000.00


  150,000.00                                      1 mo
                                                  3 mo
  100,000.00                                      6 mo


   50,000.00


          -

                 AUD    EUR   GBP    JPY   USD

Source: Bloomberg
Liquidity “freeze”
• Banks reluctant to lend long term in the inter-bank cash market (widening
  of basis spread)
• Events:
    –   Sept 7 – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are put into receivership
    –   Sept 14 – Bankruptcy of Lehman; Merrill acquired buy BAC
    –   Sept 16- AIG bailout from the treasury
    –   GS and Morgan Stanley lose their status of broker dealer and converted into
        bank holding companies
    –   Sept 19 – TARP announced by the US Treasury
    –   Sept 28- Half of Fortis Bank capital is nationalized
    –   Wachovia to be bought by Citi (later bought by wells Fargo)
    –   Sept 30- Bailout money made available to Dexia Bank
    –   Sept 30 – LIBOR rises from 4.7% to 6.88%.
• These events forced participants to review the data used in building their
  interest curves.
LIBOR – OIS
Under the normal
circumstances prior to the
financial turmoil that
started in the summer of
2007, OIS rates tended to
move just below the
corresponding currency
Libor in a very stable
manner. After the onset
of the financial
turmoil, however, the
Libor-OIS spreads
widened
substantially, particularly
for the dollar LIBOR
spread.
FX SWAP IMPLIED USD 3MO RATE vs.
                 USD LIBOR

The EUR/USD FX swap
market acts as a
substitute for
European banks to
raise USD funding. The
increased demand for
dollar funding led to
large shift in the FX
forward prices with
the implied dollar
funding rate rising
sharply above the 3
month libor.
Curve Builder
• Use most liquid benchmark instruments for
  different segments of the curve
  – Prevent abnormal spikes in the implied forward curve;
  – Best reflect the expected shape of the curve in the
    market.
• Avoid overlapping between rates
  – Cash or deposit rates for the short end;
  – Futures or forwards (FRAs) for the intermediate
    portion;
  – Swaps for long end.
• Data availability may vary by currency
Libor and swap rates to build curves
• Data used on the next slide shows USD
  forward curves on 7 specific days and
  bootstrapped using cash and swap rates
• Days used
  – Feb 18, June 20, Sep 1, Sep 15, Oct 20, 2008
  – Jan 5, 2009
• Data used
  – Cash rates from 1 week to 12 months
  – Swap rates from 2 to 30 years
Forward Curves (Cash + Swap rates)
7



6



5
                                                     18-Feb-08
                                                     20-Jun-08
4
                                                     1-Sep-08
                                                     15-Sep-08
                                                     30-Sep-08
3
                                                     20-Oct-08
                                                     5-Jan-09
2



1                     15x18 mo: 1.10%

0
     3 6 9 12 15 18     2     3     4   5   6   10
    mo                  Yr
Cash, IR Futures and Swap rates
• The data used shows curves on 7 specific days
  where curves were bootstrapped using cash, IR
  Futures and swap rates.
• The same days were used from the previous
  examples
• Data:
  – Cash rates: overnight and 1 week
  – Futures going out to 2 years on cycle
    (March, June, Sept and Dec)
  – Swap rates used: 3 to 30 years
Forward Curve (Cash, Futures, Swaps)
7



6



5
                                                18-Feb-08
                                                20-Jun-08
4
                                                1-Sep-08
                                                15-Sep-08
                                                30-Sep-08
3
                                                20-Oct-08
                                                5-Jan-09
2



1



0

     3 6 9 12 15 18   2    3   4   5   6   10
    mo                Yr
Curve Comparison
6




5




4




3




2




1




0
     3 6 9 12 15 18   2    3       4       5       6                 10
    mo                Yr
               30-Sep-08       30-Sep-08 with futures   5-Jan-09   5-Jan-09 with futures
Key Facts
• Use instruments that are liquid
• Review the forward curves you create to
  ensure there are not strange “peaks and
  valleys”
• Incorporate the use of futures or FRAs for the
  mid part of the curve.
• Bloomberg Standard Curves use a
  combination of cash, FRAs or Futures and
  swap rates depending on the currency.
Eurodollar rates as forward rates
• Eurodollar futures rates are considered forward three-
  month rates whose values reflect market expectations
  for future three-month Libor.
   – Each contract represents a deposit for a future, or
     forward, period, the contract rate is thought of as a
     forward rate.
• You can think of buyers of a particular contract as
  agreeing to receive that forward rate—the rate at
  which they are willing to lend money in the future.
• Conversely, contract sellers agree to pay the forward
  rate, meaning, to lock in now a finance rate for future
  borrowing.
Eurodollar Contract
                   CME Eurodollar Futures (ED) : EDA <Cmdty> CT <go>
Trade Unit                                  Eurodollar Time Deposit have a principal
                                            value of $1,000,000 with a three month
                                            maturity
Point Description                           1 point=.005=$12.50
Contract Listing                            Mar (H), Jun (M), Sep (U), Dec (Z)
Deposit Rate                                100-Quote
Bloomberg Ticker                            EDZ0, EDH1, EDM1, EDU1 Cmdty <Go>
Contract Value                              10,000*[100-.25*(100-Quote)]
                            Libor (%)      Quote            Contract Price
             Sep 19, 2010   0.41           99.59            998,975
             Dec 2010       0.405          99.595           998,987.5
             Gain/Loss      0.005bps                        12.5bps
Eurodollar Strip
• Investors can create longer forward periods by trading
  a sequence of two or more contiguous
  contracts, effectively fusing adjacent deposit periods
  into an extended single period.
• Such a sequence of contracts is called a Eurodollar
  strip.
• The individual forward rate of each component
  contract in the strip is known, so, it is possible to
  compute an equivalent single rate—called a Eurodollar
  strip rate—for the strip as a whole. Then we can use
  the strip rates to present-value, or discount cash flows.
Bloomberg Curve Builder ICVS
ICVS allows you to
fully customize a swap
curve with your choice
of instruments and
use it to derive either
the current value or
the historical mark to
market value of a
swap on SWPM. It can
also be used to
determine the asset
swap spread and z-
spread on ASW, the
price of floaters and
structured notes on
YASN. See IDOC
2054526 to set the
custom curve.
Forward Curve
ICVS Curve on SWPM
Pricing a Callable Step Floater
Valuation on YASN
Standard vs. Non-Standard Curves
• Contracts that are used to build an interest rate
  curve refer to the same tenor of the underlying
  benchmark i.e. 3 month libor.
   – A curve can be used to price swaps that reference to
     the same tenor (standard).
   – Cannot be used to price instruments that reference to
     a different tenor (non-standard)
   – Spread adjustment required to get the correct curve
     for calculating implied forwards.
• Basis swap: A tenor of the index that is swapped
  for a different tenor periodically.
Non Standard Curves on ICVS

ICVS allows you to
generate forward
curves adjusted to
the basis i.e. 3
month vs. 6 month
Libor. In turn, it can
be used to calculate
the market value of
swaps referenced
against the non
standard benchmark
e.g. 6 month Libor.
Pricing a Non Standard Swap
$10MM 5 year pay swap @ 2.42% effective 1/5/2009 against 6 mo US Libor
priced on December 6th 2010 (pays and resets semi-annually on both fixed and
floating sides)

                   6 month Curve      3 month Curve Difference
                                      (no basis)
Principal          $ -380,262.44      $ -414,247.25    $ 33,984.81
Par Coupon         1.17%              1.06%            11 bps
DV01               $3,508.36          $3,071.18        $437.18
Non Standard Swap on SWPM
Curve Builder

APPENDIX
How to create an ED strip
• The first step is to construct a forward strip that begins with the
  soonest-to-expire, front futures
• It ends with the contract whose deposit contains the maturity of
  the contiguous swap.
• A cash libor deposit that spans the period from settlement to the
  front contract’s expiration is added to the front of the strip: The
  ‘front stub’.
• The resulting structure is a synthetic, long term, Libor quality
  deposit that begins at settlement and terminates at the end of the
  final contract’s deposit period.
• The rates in the chain determine the future value to which a
  present value would grow if invested during the sequence of
  deposits that makes up the strip.
• In other words, the chain also determines the PV of a future
  payment occurirng at the final maturity of the strip.
Pricing a Eurodollar Strip

PV FV * [1 r /(t / 360)] 1
A eurodollarstrip is composedof n deposit periods- each witha unique
interestrate(ri ) and term(ni ). So, we can write:
PVi     FVi * [1 ri (ti / 360)] 1
PVi     present va at thestart of theith deposit period
                 lue
FVi     future value at theend of theith deposit
ri    interestratefor theith deposit period
i number of thedeposit period,i 1,2,3...,
                                        n
Solving for the PV of a sequence of
         investments starting from n to n-1
T hestrip is a sequence of investment : T heproceedsat theterminati of one deposit are
                                    s                            on
fully and immediatel reinvestedin thenext deposit periodas a sequence.So, thepresent
                     y
value for a given periodis thefuture value of theprecedingperiod.FVi   1   PVi . Applying
thisequation t say, the thirddeposit period:
             o,
PV3     FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1
to find thepresent va of thisdeposit,we must discount it over the
                    lue                                         secondperiod:
PV2     FV2 * [1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1
PV2     PV3 *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1
or
PV2     FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1
      *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1
Solving for the PV of a sequence of
           investments from n to today
We arriveat thepresent va of thecash flow at thesart of the
                           lue
deposit period- thatis, today- by discountin it over the
                                            g          first period,
PV1     FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1
      *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1
      *[1 r1 * (t3 / 360)] 1
T hequantity[1 ri * (ti / 360)] 1 is thediscount factor,dfi , for periodi
over any deposit periodsn over whichFVn is discounted T hediscount factor
                                                     .
determines in present va - at thestart of period,i of a sum paid at theend of periodi.
         ,             lue
di    [1 ri * (ti / 360)] 1
Discount Factors

We can thenexpressthePV as :
PV FVn * (df1 * df2 * df3 ...* dfn )
T heright most termbetween th parenthese is theproduct of then discount fact ors
                               e           s
thatcomposethest rip.It is called thediscount funct ionand is writ tenas :
DFn    (df1 * df2 * df3 ...* dfn )
where dfi     discount fact orfor periodi
DFn    discount funct ioncomposedof theproduct of then - perioddiscount fact ors.
It gives PV     FV * DFn .
Futures Vs. Forwards
• Assumption is often that 100-F = forward rate
• Not exact for several reasons:
  – Interest differentials on margin surplus & funding.
  – Futures are marked to market(p&l settled daily
    =PV gain/loss).
  – “Convexity” - stochastic interest rates give rise to
    differences
Eurodollar vs. Forward Rates (FRAs)
                                                  +ρ(S,r)
Futures: Daily Settlement




                                                      +ρ(S,r)
             Futures Contract   Exchange Traded Contract




                                OTC agreement between two
            Forward Contract    counterparties
Exercise (Libor FRA convexity)
•   Sell $100mm 3x9 IMM dated FRA today
•   Hedge by selling futures
•   Assume that the yield curve is flat
•   Work out:
•       Equivalent futures position
•       Gain or loss on FRA and equivalent Futures
    position for parallel shifts +/- 2%
Pricing convexity
• If not priced
  – Short futures buys convexity for free
• If priced
  – Forward rates implied by FRA’s differ from forward
    rates implied by futures.
Convexity Adjustment (Ho-Lee)

Eurodollar Future March 20102 (EDM2) as
of 9/17/2009
Quote                                       99.9901
Rate                                        0.99%
Continuously compounded rate                1.0025% (LN(1+0.99%/4)*365/90
Volatility of change in short rate          0.88%
Delivery                                    1.783 years
Delivery + 90 days                          2.033 years
Forward rate (after convexity adjustment)   0.9866% (1.0025-0.5*0.88%^2*1.783*2.03)

           Forward rate = Futures Rate – 0.5σ2T1T2
Convexity Adjustment (Hull White)
              B (t1,t 2 )                       2 at1
                            B (t1 , t 2 )(1 e           ) 2aB(0, t1 ) 2
               t 2 t1                                                     a
                                    a (T t )
                             1 e
              B (t , T )
                           a
              a    mean reversionspeed
                    volat ilit ycaplet vol forward rat e(t1 , t 2 ) t hatexpriesat t1
                               ,         on
Eurodollar Future March 20102 (EDM2) as of Sep 17, 2010
Last trade                                                       99.9901
Rate                                                             0.99%
Continuously compounded rate                                     1.0025% (LN(1+0.99%/4)*365/90
Volatility of change in short rate                               0.88%
Delivery                                                         1.783 years
Delivery + 90 days                                               2.033 years
Forward rate (after convexity adjustment)                        0.9892% (0.010025-0.000132381)
                                                                 see next slide for calc prove out
Convexity Adjustment (Hull White)

B (t1,t 2 )                         2 at1
                B (t1 , t 2 )(1 e           ) 2aB(0, t1 ) 2
 t 2 t1                                                         a
   0.248767                                          2*0.03*1.7833                     2   0.88%
              0.2487671 e
                     (                                               ) 2 * 0.03*1.736437              0.000132381
2.0333 1.7833                                                                                * 0.03
                         0.03 ( 2.0333 1.7833 )
                  1 e
B (t1 , t 2 )                                      0.248767
                            0.03
                         0.03*1.78333
                 1 e
B (0, t1 )                                  1.736437
                        0.03
a     0.03
       0.88%
USD FRA
 Settle                                                   discount   spot
 /Term 9/21/2010 ASK      BID  Term Period   expiry days   factor    rates
3m       LIBOR 0.29156           3    m 12/21/2010 91 0.999263544 0.292%
6m        3X6    0.422  0.402    6    m    3/21/2011 91 0.998198743 0.357%
12m       6X9    0.4837 0.4637   9    m    6/21/2011 92 0.996966371 0.400%
18m      9X12     0.57  0.555   12    m    9/21/2011 92 0.995516235 0.443%




              D3m=1/(1+0.29156*91/36000)=0.99263544

              D3-6=1/(1+0.422*91/360000)=0.999834414

              D6m=D3m*D3-6=0.99263544*0.999834414=0.998198743
Futures Discount Factors (no cnvx. adj.)
contract                             Expiry      Term      Period      Rate          The front stub is the
BBA LIBOR USD Overnight            9/23/2010       1         D       0.22788         rate that spans the
USD DEPOSIT T/N                    9/24/2010       2         D         0.25          period from settlement
BBA LIBOR USD 1 Week               9/29/2010       1         W       0.2515          (Sep 22) to the expiry
BBA LIBOR USD 2 Week               10/6/2010       2         W       0.25181         of the front contract
BBA LIBOR USD 1 Month              10/22/2010      1         M       0.2575          (12/15/10- ED Dec 10).
BBA LIBOR USD 2 Month              11/22/2010      2         M       0.27438         Here, it is linearly
BBA LIBOR USD 3 Month              12/22/2010      3         M       0.29156         interpolated between
                                                                                     2 and 3 mo Libor (23
     0.27438+23/30*(0.29156-0.27438)=0.28755                                         days)


                                         Days in Day- Discount
 contract    yield    Start Date      End Date
                                         period count factors
Libor*      0.28755 9/22/2010 12/15/2010   84     a360 0.999329 =1/(1+.28755*84/36000)
EDZ0         0.405 12/15/2010 3/16/2011    91     a360 0.998307 =1/(1+0.405*91/36000)*0.999329
EDH1         0.470 3/16/2011 6/15/2011     91     a360 0.997123 =1/(1+0.470*91/36000)*0.998307
EDM1         0.555 6/15/2011 9/21/2011     98     a360 0.995619 =1/(1+0.555*98/36000)*0.997123
                    9/22/2010 9/22/2011   365     a360 0.995600 =0.995619+1/90*(0.99396-0.995619)
EDU1         0.660 9/21/2011 12/21/2011    91     a360 0.993960 Future strip=0.995600*365/360=1.00942819
2 year swap 0.682 9/22/2010 9/24/2012     722    30360 0.986389 =(1-0.682/100*0.995600*365/360)/(1+0.682/100)
Bootstrapping Discount Factors and Zero
        Rates from Swap Rates
A swap Rate is the coupon rate which the fixed side is going to pay for the par swap. The procedure to solve
the discount factor from a quoted swap rate is called bootstrapping. As shown above, To solve the 2-year
discount factor, we need 1 year discount factor. To solve 6-year discount factor, we need 1 year, 2 year, 3
year, 4 year, 5 year discount factors. Thus we have to go step by step to solve the discount factors.
                   N

100 C N                 dfn 100 df N
                  n 1
100 C N           AN    100 df N
            N

AN               dfn    AN       1   df N
           n 1
           1 C N AN          1
df N
             1 CN
For example, we solvethe two year discountfactor from the 2 year swap rate :
df2 * 100 coupon df1 * coupon 100
     df2        1 coupon df1 /( 1 coupon)
                        *
Similarly,we solvefor the three year discountfactor from the 3 year swap rate :
df3 * ( 100 coupon) df2 * coupon df1 * coupon
     df * ( 100 coupon) coupon df2 * df1
                              *                            100
     df3        1 coupon ( df2
                        *                   df1 ) /( 1 coupon)
So, we can solvefor any discountrate using:
dfn        ( 1 coupon previousannuity) /( 1 coupon)
                     *
Bootstrapped IRS Curve w/
             Cash, Future Strip and Swap Rates
                                       settle date       9/22/2010
                                       stub                     84
contract                   term freq         Start      expiry       ask       ask (dec)   days to    Time between Discount Future Strip spot rates
                                                                                           expiry        contract   Factor               (S/A cmpd)
                                                                                                       expiry dates
                                                                                                          (years)
LIBOR USD O/N              1    D           9/22/2010    9/23/2010   0.22788   0.002279    0.002778      0.0027     0.999994               0.2279%
LIBOR USD 1W               1    W           9/22/2010    9/29/2010    0.2515   0.002515    0.019444      0.0167     0.999951               0.2515%
LIBOR USD 2W               2    W           9/22/2010    10/6/2010   0.25181   0.002518    0.038889      0.0194     0.999902               0.2518%
LIBOR USD 1M               1    M           9/22/2010   10/22/2010    0.2575   0.002575    0.083333      0.0444     0.999785               0.2575%
LIBOR USD 2M               2    M           9/22/2010   11/22/2010   0.27438   0.002744    0.169444      0.0861     0.999535               0.2744%
LIBOR USD 3M               3    M           9/22/2010   12/22/2010   0.29156   0.002916    0.252778      0.0833     0.999264               0.2916%
90DAY EURO$ FUTR Dec10     3    M          12/15/2010    3/16/2011     0.405    0.00405    0.479452      0.2528     0.998307               0.3527%
90DAY EURO$ FUTR Mar11     3    M           3/16/2011    6/15/2011      0.47     0.0047    0.728767      0.2528     0.997123               0.3946%
90DAY EURO$ FUTR Jun11     3    M           6/15/2011    9/21/2011     0.555    0.00555     0.99726      0.2722     0.995619               0.4393%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 2YR   2    Y           9/22/2010    9/24/2012     0.682    0.00682    2.008219      1.0139     0.986389 1.00942819    0.6813%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 3YR   3    Y           9/22/2010    9/23/2013     1.015    0.01015    3.005479      0.9972     0.969925               1.0134%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 4YR   4    Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2014     1.361    0.01361     4.00274      0.9972     0.946639               1.3653%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 5YR   5    Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2015     1.703    0.01703     5.00274      1.0000     0.917603               1.7115%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 6YR   6    Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2016     1.992    0.01992    6.005479      1.0000     0.885971               2.0059%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 7YR   7    Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2017     2.262    0.02262    7.005479      1.0000      0.85126               2.2856%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 8YR   8    Y           9/22/2010    9/24/2018     2.458    0.02458    8.010959      1.0056      0.81815               2.4898%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 9YR   9    Y           9/22/2010    9/23/2019     2.633    0.02633    9.008219      0.9972     0.784602               2.6748%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 10Y   10   Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2020     2.777    0.02777    10.00822      0.9972     0.751997               2.8277%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 11Y   11   Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2021     2.872    0.02872    11.00822      1.0000     0.722755               2.9278%
USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 12Y   12   Y           9/22/2010    9/22/2022     3.003    0.03003    12.00822      1.0000     0.689406               3.0734%
Additional references

• DOC 2055462 : Complete curve builder methodology.

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Evolution of Interest Rate Curves since the Financial Crisis

  • 1. Evolution of Interest Rate Curves Special CPT Seminar Francois Choquet, Advanced Specialist Bloomberg L.P. December 8, 2010
  • 2. Amounts outstanding of over-the- counter (OTC) derivatives (in Billions of USD) Credit Equity Default Linked, 6, Swaps, 31 Commodity, 867 Breakdown by Interest Rate Instruments ,057 3,273 Foreign Total FRAs Exchange, options 12% 62,933 11% Interest Rate, 478, 092 Swaps 77% Source: BIS June 2010 S/A Survey
  • 3. Floating Rate Notes (Libor) Amount Outstanding in millions of US$ 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1 mo 1,000,000 3 mo 800,000 6 mo 600,000 400,000 200,000 - AUD EUR GBP JPY USD Source: Bloomberg
  • 4. Fixed to Float Bonds (Libor) Amount Outstanding in millions of US$ 300,000.00 250,000.00 200,000.00 150,000.00 1 mo 3 mo 100,000.00 6 mo 50,000.00 - AUD EUR GBP JPY USD Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. Liquidity “freeze” • Banks reluctant to lend long term in the inter-bank cash market (widening of basis spread) • Events: – Sept 7 – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are put into receivership – Sept 14 – Bankruptcy of Lehman; Merrill acquired buy BAC – Sept 16- AIG bailout from the treasury – GS and Morgan Stanley lose their status of broker dealer and converted into bank holding companies – Sept 19 – TARP announced by the US Treasury – Sept 28- Half of Fortis Bank capital is nationalized – Wachovia to be bought by Citi (later bought by wells Fargo) – Sept 30- Bailout money made available to Dexia Bank – Sept 30 – LIBOR rises from 4.7% to 6.88%. • These events forced participants to review the data used in building their interest curves.
  • 6. LIBOR – OIS Under the normal circumstances prior to the financial turmoil that started in the summer of 2007, OIS rates tended to move just below the corresponding currency Libor in a very stable manner. After the onset of the financial turmoil, however, the Libor-OIS spreads widened substantially, particularly for the dollar LIBOR spread.
  • 7. FX SWAP IMPLIED USD 3MO RATE vs. USD LIBOR The EUR/USD FX swap market acts as a substitute for European banks to raise USD funding. The increased demand for dollar funding led to large shift in the FX forward prices with the implied dollar funding rate rising sharply above the 3 month libor.
  • 8. Curve Builder • Use most liquid benchmark instruments for different segments of the curve – Prevent abnormal spikes in the implied forward curve; – Best reflect the expected shape of the curve in the market. • Avoid overlapping between rates – Cash or deposit rates for the short end; – Futures or forwards (FRAs) for the intermediate portion; – Swaps for long end. • Data availability may vary by currency
  • 9. Libor and swap rates to build curves • Data used on the next slide shows USD forward curves on 7 specific days and bootstrapped using cash and swap rates • Days used – Feb 18, June 20, Sep 1, Sep 15, Oct 20, 2008 – Jan 5, 2009 • Data used – Cash rates from 1 week to 12 months – Swap rates from 2 to 30 years
  • 10. Forward Curves (Cash + Swap rates) 7 6 5 18-Feb-08 20-Jun-08 4 1-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 3 20-Oct-08 5-Jan-09 2 1 15x18 mo: 1.10% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 2 3 4 5 6 10 mo Yr
  • 11. Cash, IR Futures and Swap rates • The data used shows curves on 7 specific days where curves were bootstrapped using cash, IR Futures and swap rates. • The same days were used from the previous examples • Data: – Cash rates: overnight and 1 week – Futures going out to 2 years on cycle (March, June, Sept and Dec) – Swap rates used: 3 to 30 years
  • 12. Forward Curve (Cash, Futures, Swaps) 7 6 5 18-Feb-08 20-Jun-08 4 1-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 3 20-Oct-08 5-Jan-09 2 1 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 2 3 4 5 6 10 mo Yr
  • 13. Curve Comparison 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 2 3 4 5 6 10 mo Yr 30-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 with futures 5-Jan-09 5-Jan-09 with futures
  • 14. Key Facts • Use instruments that are liquid • Review the forward curves you create to ensure there are not strange “peaks and valleys” • Incorporate the use of futures or FRAs for the mid part of the curve. • Bloomberg Standard Curves use a combination of cash, FRAs or Futures and swap rates depending on the currency.
  • 15. Eurodollar rates as forward rates • Eurodollar futures rates are considered forward three- month rates whose values reflect market expectations for future three-month Libor. – Each contract represents a deposit for a future, or forward, period, the contract rate is thought of as a forward rate. • You can think of buyers of a particular contract as agreeing to receive that forward rate—the rate at which they are willing to lend money in the future. • Conversely, contract sellers agree to pay the forward rate, meaning, to lock in now a finance rate for future borrowing.
  • 16. Eurodollar Contract CME Eurodollar Futures (ED) : EDA <Cmdty> CT <go> Trade Unit Eurodollar Time Deposit have a principal value of $1,000,000 with a three month maturity Point Description 1 point=.005=$12.50 Contract Listing Mar (H), Jun (M), Sep (U), Dec (Z) Deposit Rate 100-Quote Bloomberg Ticker EDZ0, EDH1, EDM1, EDU1 Cmdty <Go> Contract Value 10,000*[100-.25*(100-Quote)] Libor (%) Quote Contract Price Sep 19, 2010 0.41 99.59 998,975 Dec 2010 0.405 99.595 998,987.5 Gain/Loss 0.005bps 12.5bps
  • 17. Eurodollar Strip • Investors can create longer forward periods by trading a sequence of two or more contiguous contracts, effectively fusing adjacent deposit periods into an extended single period. • Such a sequence of contracts is called a Eurodollar strip. • The individual forward rate of each component contract in the strip is known, so, it is possible to compute an equivalent single rate—called a Eurodollar strip rate—for the strip as a whole. Then we can use the strip rates to present-value, or discount cash flows.
  • 18. Bloomberg Curve Builder ICVS ICVS allows you to fully customize a swap curve with your choice of instruments and use it to derive either the current value or the historical mark to market value of a swap on SWPM. It can also be used to determine the asset swap spread and z- spread on ASW, the price of floaters and structured notes on YASN. See IDOC 2054526 to set the custom curve.
  • 21. Pricing a Callable Step Floater
  • 23. Standard vs. Non-Standard Curves • Contracts that are used to build an interest rate curve refer to the same tenor of the underlying benchmark i.e. 3 month libor. – A curve can be used to price swaps that reference to the same tenor (standard). – Cannot be used to price instruments that reference to a different tenor (non-standard) – Spread adjustment required to get the correct curve for calculating implied forwards. • Basis swap: A tenor of the index that is swapped for a different tenor periodically.
  • 24. Non Standard Curves on ICVS ICVS allows you to generate forward curves adjusted to the basis i.e. 3 month vs. 6 month Libor. In turn, it can be used to calculate the market value of swaps referenced against the non standard benchmark e.g. 6 month Libor.
  • 25. Pricing a Non Standard Swap $10MM 5 year pay swap @ 2.42% effective 1/5/2009 against 6 mo US Libor priced on December 6th 2010 (pays and resets semi-annually on both fixed and floating sides) 6 month Curve 3 month Curve Difference (no basis) Principal $ -380,262.44 $ -414,247.25 $ 33,984.81 Par Coupon 1.17% 1.06% 11 bps DV01 $3,508.36 $3,071.18 $437.18
  • 26. Non Standard Swap on SWPM
  • 28. How to create an ED strip • The first step is to construct a forward strip that begins with the soonest-to-expire, front futures • It ends with the contract whose deposit contains the maturity of the contiguous swap. • A cash libor deposit that spans the period from settlement to the front contract’s expiration is added to the front of the strip: The ‘front stub’. • The resulting structure is a synthetic, long term, Libor quality deposit that begins at settlement and terminates at the end of the final contract’s deposit period. • The rates in the chain determine the future value to which a present value would grow if invested during the sequence of deposits that makes up the strip. • In other words, the chain also determines the PV of a future payment occurirng at the final maturity of the strip.
  • 29. Pricing a Eurodollar Strip PV FV * [1 r /(t / 360)] 1 A eurodollarstrip is composedof n deposit periods- each witha unique interestrate(ri ) and term(ni ). So, we can write: PVi FVi * [1 ri (ti / 360)] 1 PVi present va at thestart of theith deposit period lue FVi future value at theend of theith deposit ri interestratefor theith deposit period i number of thedeposit period,i 1,2,3..., n
  • 30. Solving for the PV of a sequence of investments starting from n to n-1 T hestrip is a sequence of investment : T heproceedsat theterminati of one deposit are s on fully and immediatel reinvestedin thenext deposit periodas a sequence.So, thepresent y value for a given periodis thefuture value of theprecedingperiod.FVi 1 PVi . Applying thisequation t say, the thirddeposit period: o, PV3 FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1 to find thepresent va of thisdeposit,we must discount it over the lue secondperiod: PV2 FV2 * [1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1 PV2 PV3 *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1 or PV2 FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1 *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1
  • 31. Solving for the PV of a sequence of investments from n to today We arriveat thepresent va of thecash flow at thesart of the lue deposit period- thatis, today- by discountin it over the g first period, PV1 FV3 *[1 r3 * (t3 / 360)] 1 *[1 r2 * (t 2 / 360)] 1 *[1 r1 * (t3 / 360)] 1 T hequantity[1 ri * (ti / 360)] 1 is thediscount factor,dfi , for periodi over any deposit periodsn over whichFVn is discounted T hediscount factor . determines in present va - at thestart of period,i of a sum paid at theend of periodi. , lue di [1 ri * (ti / 360)] 1
  • 32. Discount Factors We can thenexpressthePV as : PV FVn * (df1 * df2 * df3 ...* dfn ) T heright most termbetween th parenthese is theproduct of then discount fact ors e s thatcomposethest rip.It is called thediscount funct ionand is writ tenas : DFn (df1 * df2 * df3 ...* dfn ) where dfi discount fact orfor periodi DFn discount funct ioncomposedof theproduct of then - perioddiscount fact ors. It gives PV FV * DFn .
  • 33. Futures Vs. Forwards • Assumption is often that 100-F = forward rate • Not exact for several reasons: – Interest differentials on margin surplus & funding. – Futures are marked to market(p&l settled daily =PV gain/loss). – “Convexity” - stochastic interest rates give rise to differences
  • 34. Eurodollar vs. Forward Rates (FRAs) +ρ(S,r) Futures: Daily Settlement +ρ(S,r) Futures Contract Exchange Traded Contract OTC agreement between two Forward Contract counterparties
  • 35. Exercise (Libor FRA convexity) • Sell $100mm 3x9 IMM dated FRA today • Hedge by selling futures • Assume that the yield curve is flat • Work out: • Equivalent futures position • Gain or loss on FRA and equivalent Futures position for parallel shifts +/- 2%
  • 36. Pricing convexity • If not priced – Short futures buys convexity for free • If priced – Forward rates implied by FRA’s differ from forward rates implied by futures.
  • 37. Convexity Adjustment (Ho-Lee) Eurodollar Future March 20102 (EDM2) as of 9/17/2009 Quote 99.9901 Rate 0.99% Continuously compounded rate 1.0025% (LN(1+0.99%/4)*365/90 Volatility of change in short rate 0.88% Delivery 1.783 years Delivery + 90 days 2.033 years Forward rate (after convexity adjustment) 0.9866% (1.0025-0.5*0.88%^2*1.783*2.03) Forward rate = Futures Rate – 0.5σ2T1T2
  • 38. Convexity Adjustment (Hull White) B (t1,t 2 ) 2 at1 B (t1 , t 2 )(1 e ) 2aB(0, t1 ) 2 t 2 t1 a a (T t ) 1 e B (t , T ) a a mean reversionspeed volat ilit ycaplet vol forward rat e(t1 , t 2 ) t hatexpriesat t1 , on Eurodollar Future March 20102 (EDM2) as of Sep 17, 2010 Last trade 99.9901 Rate 0.99% Continuously compounded rate 1.0025% (LN(1+0.99%/4)*365/90 Volatility of change in short rate 0.88% Delivery 1.783 years Delivery + 90 days 2.033 years Forward rate (after convexity adjustment) 0.9892% (0.010025-0.000132381) see next slide for calc prove out
  • 39. Convexity Adjustment (Hull White) B (t1,t 2 ) 2 at1 B (t1 , t 2 )(1 e ) 2aB(0, t1 ) 2 t 2 t1 a 0.248767 2*0.03*1.7833 2 0.88% 0.2487671 e ( ) 2 * 0.03*1.736437 0.000132381 2.0333 1.7833 * 0.03 0.03 ( 2.0333 1.7833 ) 1 e B (t1 , t 2 ) 0.248767 0.03 0.03*1.78333 1 e B (0, t1 ) 1.736437 0.03 a 0.03 0.88%
  • 40. USD FRA Settle discount spot /Term 9/21/2010 ASK BID Term Period expiry days factor rates 3m LIBOR 0.29156 3 m 12/21/2010 91 0.999263544 0.292% 6m 3X6 0.422 0.402 6 m 3/21/2011 91 0.998198743 0.357% 12m 6X9 0.4837 0.4637 9 m 6/21/2011 92 0.996966371 0.400% 18m 9X12 0.57 0.555 12 m 9/21/2011 92 0.995516235 0.443% D3m=1/(1+0.29156*91/36000)=0.99263544 D3-6=1/(1+0.422*91/360000)=0.999834414 D6m=D3m*D3-6=0.99263544*0.999834414=0.998198743
  • 41. Futures Discount Factors (no cnvx. adj.) contract Expiry Term Period Rate The front stub is the BBA LIBOR USD Overnight 9/23/2010 1 D 0.22788 rate that spans the USD DEPOSIT T/N 9/24/2010 2 D 0.25 period from settlement BBA LIBOR USD 1 Week 9/29/2010 1 W 0.2515 (Sep 22) to the expiry BBA LIBOR USD 2 Week 10/6/2010 2 W 0.25181 of the front contract BBA LIBOR USD 1 Month 10/22/2010 1 M 0.2575 (12/15/10- ED Dec 10). BBA LIBOR USD 2 Month 11/22/2010 2 M 0.27438 Here, it is linearly BBA LIBOR USD 3 Month 12/22/2010 3 M 0.29156 interpolated between 2 and 3 mo Libor (23 0.27438+23/30*(0.29156-0.27438)=0.28755 days) Days in Day- Discount contract yield Start Date End Date period count factors Libor* 0.28755 9/22/2010 12/15/2010 84 a360 0.999329 =1/(1+.28755*84/36000) EDZ0 0.405 12/15/2010 3/16/2011 91 a360 0.998307 =1/(1+0.405*91/36000)*0.999329 EDH1 0.470 3/16/2011 6/15/2011 91 a360 0.997123 =1/(1+0.470*91/36000)*0.998307 EDM1 0.555 6/15/2011 9/21/2011 98 a360 0.995619 =1/(1+0.555*98/36000)*0.997123 9/22/2010 9/22/2011 365 a360 0.995600 =0.995619+1/90*(0.99396-0.995619) EDU1 0.660 9/21/2011 12/21/2011 91 a360 0.993960 Future strip=0.995600*365/360=1.00942819 2 year swap 0.682 9/22/2010 9/24/2012 722 30360 0.986389 =(1-0.682/100*0.995600*365/360)/(1+0.682/100)
  • 42. Bootstrapping Discount Factors and Zero Rates from Swap Rates A swap Rate is the coupon rate which the fixed side is going to pay for the par swap. The procedure to solve the discount factor from a quoted swap rate is called bootstrapping. As shown above, To solve the 2-year discount factor, we need 1 year discount factor. To solve 6-year discount factor, we need 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, 5 year discount factors. Thus we have to go step by step to solve the discount factors. N 100 C N dfn 100 df N n 1 100 C N AN 100 df N N AN dfn AN 1 df N n 1 1 C N AN 1 df N 1 CN For example, we solvethe two year discountfactor from the 2 year swap rate : df2 * 100 coupon df1 * coupon 100 df2 1 coupon df1 /( 1 coupon) * Similarly,we solvefor the three year discountfactor from the 3 year swap rate : df3 * ( 100 coupon) df2 * coupon df1 * coupon df * ( 100 coupon) coupon df2 * df1 * 100 df3 1 coupon ( df2 * df1 ) /( 1 coupon) So, we can solvefor any discountrate using: dfn ( 1 coupon previousannuity) /( 1 coupon) *
  • 43. Bootstrapped IRS Curve w/ Cash, Future Strip and Swap Rates settle date 9/22/2010 stub 84 contract term freq Start expiry ask ask (dec) days to Time between Discount Future Strip spot rates expiry contract Factor (S/A cmpd) expiry dates (years) LIBOR USD O/N 1 D 9/22/2010 9/23/2010 0.22788 0.002279 0.002778 0.0027 0.999994 0.2279% LIBOR USD 1W 1 W 9/22/2010 9/29/2010 0.2515 0.002515 0.019444 0.0167 0.999951 0.2515% LIBOR USD 2W 2 W 9/22/2010 10/6/2010 0.25181 0.002518 0.038889 0.0194 0.999902 0.2518% LIBOR USD 1M 1 M 9/22/2010 10/22/2010 0.2575 0.002575 0.083333 0.0444 0.999785 0.2575% LIBOR USD 2M 2 M 9/22/2010 11/22/2010 0.27438 0.002744 0.169444 0.0861 0.999535 0.2744% LIBOR USD 3M 3 M 9/22/2010 12/22/2010 0.29156 0.002916 0.252778 0.0833 0.999264 0.2916% 90DAY EURO$ FUTR Dec10 3 M 12/15/2010 3/16/2011 0.405 0.00405 0.479452 0.2528 0.998307 0.3527% 90DAY EURO$ FUTR Mar11 3 M 3/16/2011 6/15/2011 0.47 0.0047 0.728767 0.2528 0.997123 0.3946% 90DAY EURO$ FUTR Jun11 3 M 6/15/2011 9/21/2011 0.555 0.00555 0.99726 0.2722 0.995619 0.4393% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 2YR 2 Y 9/22/2010 9/24/2012 0.682 0.00682 2.008219 1.0139 0.986389 1.00942819 0.6813% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 3YR 3 Y 9/22/2010 9/23/2013 1.015 0.01015 3.005479 0.9972 0.969925 1.0134% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 4YR 4 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2014 1.361 0.01361 4.00274 0.9972 0.946639 1.3653% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 5YR 5 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2015 1.703 0.01703 5.00274 1.0000 0.917603 1.7115% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 6YR 6 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2016 1.992 0.01992 6.005479 1.0000 0.885971 2.0059% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 7YR 7 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2017 2.262 0.02262 7.005479 1.0000 0.85126 2.2856% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 8YR 8 Y 9/22/2010 9/24/2018 2.458 0.02458 8.010959 1.0056 0.81815 2.4898% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 9YR 9 Y 9/22/2010 9/23/2019 2.633 0.02633 9.008219 0.9972 0.784602 2.6748% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 10Y 10 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2020 2.777 0.02777 10.00822 0.9972 0.751997 2.8277% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 11Y 11 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2021 2.872 0.02872 11.00822 1.0000 0.722755 2.9278% USD SWAP SEMI 30/360 12Y 12 Y 9/22/2010 9/22/2022 3.003 0.03003 12.00822 1.0000 0.689406 3.0734%
  • 44. Additional references • DOC 2055462 : Complete curve builder methodology.