Colorado snow forecasting 101
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Slides often used by meteorologist Joel Gratz in his presentations about Colorado snowfall.
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Colorado snow forecasting 101
- 1. Colorado Snow Forecasting 101 Meteorologist Joel Gratz Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com
- 2. How this presentation will help you: 1) Remove mystery of Colorado weather. 2) Find the most snow.
- 3. Hi, I’m Joel Gratz. I grew up in Pennsylvania, ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.
- 4. And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.
- 5. And it made me mad!
- 6. So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share. Dec 2007 28 people email list 2008-2009 500 people email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews
- 8. Big Weather (primary care doctor) (knee surgeon)
- 10. 16 Day Forecast
- 11. 15 Day Forecast
- 12. 14 Day Forecast
- 13. 13 Day Forecast
- 14. 12 Day Forecast
- 15. 11 Day Forecast
- 16. 10 Day Forecast
- 17. 9 Day Forecast
- 18. 8 Day Forecast
- 19. 7 Day Forecast
- 20. 6 Day Forecast
- 21. 5 Day Forecast
- 22. 4 Day Forecast
- 23. 3 Day Forecast
- 24. 2 Day Forecast
- 25. 1 Day Forecast
- 27. When to trust the forecast 10 days + storm or no storm + cold, hot, dry, moist 3-5 days + details becoming clearer 1-2 days + details are as clear as possible
- 28. How to plan 7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days Toast to possibilities Clear your schedule Pretend you’re getting sick
- 29. Weather is not magic. It’s physics. Forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are getting better every year. Study them, don’t dismiss them.
- 30. Long range forecasts stink! We cannot reliably predict snow accumulations beyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.
- 31. Weather happens when moist air gets high 1 2 3
- 32. Where’s the moisture? Less moisture (land source) Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)
- 33. Orographics get air high
- 34. Mountains = Precipitation Indian Peaks / RMNP Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile & Mosquito Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S San Juans Sawatch Sangre de Christo East San Juans
- 35. Favorable wind directions Steamboat RMNP Summit Co. Aspen Powderhorn Vail Crested Butte Telluride Silverton Wolf Creek
- 36. Breckenridge: NW to N winds e or G ge n Ra Vail Pass
- 38. Beaver Creek: West winds e or G ge n Ra Beaver Creek Vail Vail Pass
- 43. Moisture in the air 10F 0F Temperature >> colder
- 44. The best snow requires... • Lots of moisture • Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F • Not too much wind
- 45. Wind directions? Complicated. What about radar? Nope. There’s a problem...
- 47. Overshooting the Snow 0.5 deg
- 49. Steamboat Vail Aspen RMNP Summit Co. Crested Butte Telluride Wolf Creek http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
- 50. Colorado is a state of extremes The difference between a wet year and a dry year can come down to the presence or absence of just a few major storms. Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
- 51. Colorado is a state of extremes More than half of the total annual precipitation falls in only 20% of the days when precipitation occurs. Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
- 53. Example: Schofield Pass 2 of 60 storms created 25% of the total season snow