3. Non-GAAP Financial Information
This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” earnings per share (EPS) on an
ongoing basis and Return on Capital (ROC). We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating
activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as ongoing EPS, excludes
certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation.
ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the
average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our
presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating
performance, not replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as
determined in accordance with GAAP. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to
similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are
reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP.
FISCAL YEAR:
References to year, or to fiscal year, are on a fiscal year basis and refer to the 12-month period ending August 31.
4. OVERVIEW
Market Forces Are Changing Supply-Demand Patterns
Globally, Creating a New Dynamic Across Agriculture
EMERGENCE OF DEMAND-DRIVEN AGRICULTURE: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
NEW DEMAND AND PRODUCTION TRENDS The New Demand Environment
FACTORS:
Growing wealth
Expanding ethanol ► INCREASING PROTEIN
and population in
and export
DEMAND
Asia creates new
demands favor U.S.
demand for
as low-cost corn Wealth drives meat
imported grain
producer
consumption – changing
feed demand
► ASCENSION OF CHINA
China’s growth is reaching
limits of domestic
production, driving huge
changes in export
environment
Brazil exploits land
Argentina ► ESTABLISHMENT OF
availability advantage
leverages to become BIOFUELS
geographic commodity soy
proximity to Assuming only base-case
producer to meet
supply corn to demand from China adoption of biofuels, more
Latin America
corn and soy needed in next
decade
4
6. OVERVIEW
China Is Changing the Global Grain Landscape, Emerging as
a Major Soybean Importer
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
CHINA’S GROWING SOYBEAN DEMAND:
Emergence of China
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS1
China’s 2008 soybean imports
60,000
would be equivalent to:
MILLION METRIC TONS
40%
50,000
Of annual U.S.
40,000 soy
production
30,000
OR
20,000
60%
Of annual Brazil
10,000
soy production
0
OR
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
75%
Production Imports
Of annual
Argentina soy
In 2008, forecasts are for
production
China to import >33MMT of
soybeans
1. ProExporter
6
7. OVERVIEW
Even at Base Case, Biofuels Still Create New Demand Pull
on Corn and Soybean Production
STATE OF AGRICULTURE: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
Corn for Ethanol Soybeans for Biodiesel
U.S. SOYBEANS USED FOR BIODIESEL:
U.S. CORN CROP USED FOR ETHANOL:
OUTLOOK TO 20122
PERCENT OF TOTAL CROP PRODUCTION1
Soybean Acres: With RFS and No Biofuel Tax
40%
Credit Extension
35%
12
30%
10
25%
SOYBEAN ACRES
8
20%
6
15%
>100% increase in
4
10% acres devoted to
biodiesel
2
5%
0
0%
2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008F 2010F 2012F
► The Food and Agricultural Policy Research
► Recent Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Institute (FAPRI) looked at five cases –
increases renewable fuels requirement
applying RFS and tax credits – and
30%+ from 2008 to 2012
forecast as many as 11M acres of U.S. soy
► By 2008, >30% of U.S. corn will be used for
needed for biofuels by 2012, or >15% of
ethanol production
total
1. ProExporter; 2. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Estimates
7
8. OVERVIEW
Feed and Fuel Demand Is Increasing; Only Time-Effective
Solution Is Increasing Productivity Per Acre
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
STRETCHING SUPPLY – ENDING STOCKS: Monsanto’s Advantages
WORLD SUPPLY AND USE FOR TOTAL GRAINS1
Demand Requires Yield
600 30% MARKET
CUSTOMER
METRIC TONS (IN MILLIONS)
25%
500
Farmers Buy Yield
400 20%
Monsanto is a technology
15%
300
company in an industry
historically starved for
200 10%
breakthrough innovation
5%
100
Innovation:
► Creates new value through
0 0%
breakthrough products
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
► Creates new markets that
ENDING STOCKS AS A
ENDING STOCKS
didn’t exist before our
PERCENT OF TOTAL USE
products
Annual grain carryover is
Monsanto grows because of
declining – even at a period of
what we do, not what the
historic production levels
commodity cycles do
1. USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
8
9. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
At Farm Level, Production Decisions Reflect Cost-Benefit
Analysis
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
ILLINOIS CORN FARMER’S TRADE-OFF CORN-TO-SOYBEANS1
Farmer Production Decisions
► Break-even analysis for
farmer in Central Illinois
indicates the soy price
needed to induce switch is
CURRENT SOYBEAN PRICE/BU
2.5X current corn price
► Even at ~$13 soybeans,
returns still favor devoting
acres to corn
BREAK-EVEN RATIOS
CORN-TO-SOY: 1:2.5
CURRENT
CORN PRICE/BU
1. Analysis based on data published by University of Illinois, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/crop_budgets.pdf)
9
10. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Monsanto Has Portfolio Balance That Carries Between Crops
When Acres Switch Year-to-Year
PORTFOLIO BALANCE: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
INDEXED GROSS PROFIT FOR MONSANTO-BRANDED CROP OFFERINGS
Portfolio Balance
1.2
► In 2008, for every 1 million
1.00 acres that shift from
1 0.94
soybeans to either corn or
cotton, on average, there is
0.8
an estimated $0.01 EPS gain
► With brands in corn, cotton
0.6
0.47 and soybeans, Monsanto is
positioned to meet demand
0.4
regardless of crop planting
patterns in any given year
0.2
0
CORN COTTON SOYBEANS
2008 U.S. TRAIT
1.6 1.4 0.94
PENETRATION –
ALL CHANNELS
10
11. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Monsanto’s Pricing Model Aimed at Value of Yield Created;
Shared With Farmer
EXAMPLE : LOW-PRICE ENVIRONMENT EXAMPLE : HIGH-PRICE ENVIRONMENT
Farmer Value Proposition On Triple Stack at Farmer Value Proposition On Triple Stack at
$2.50 Corn Prices $4.50 Corn Prices
VALUE CREATION VALUE CREATION
15-20 bu/ac 15-20 bu/ac
Improved Yield1 Improved Yield1
$2.50/bu $4.50/bu
Commodity Price: Commodity Price:
$37-$50 $67-$90
Value: Value:
$5 $5
Indirect Benefits2 Indirect Benefits2
$42-$55 $72-$95
Incremental Value Created Incremental Value Created
PRICING APPROACH PRICING APPROACH
$28-$36 $28-$36
Per-Acre Trait Cost3 Per-Acre Trait Cost3
($17) ($17)
– Cost of Replacements4 – Cost of Replacements4
$16-$19 $16-$19
Incremental Farmer Cost Incremental Farmer Cost
With $2.50 corn, about 50% of the incremental
yield value created is shared with the farmer;
With $4.50 corn, about two-thirds of that value
accrues to the farmer
1. Monsanto estimates, based on better insect and weed control over conventional options
2. Monsanto estimates, based on farmer surveys quantifying benefits such as convenience and peace of mind
3. Retail price range for YieldGard VT Triple in 2008, at normal seeding rates
4. Subtracts costs farmers would have spent had they not used a trait package
11
12. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Performance Acceleration in DEKALB Powers Share Gains
YIELD ADVANTAGE: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
YIELD ADVANTAGE AND DEKALB SHARE TRENDS
Farmers Buy Yield
220 Farmer’s consistently cite
DEKALB Yield Performance
DEKALB ADVANTAGE
“yield” as largest driver for
IN 110-RM (BU/AC)
210 Competitive Yield
Performance purchasing DEKALB seed
200
► In 2007, >14,000
190
comparisons show
180 Monsanto germplasm
outyields competitive best
170
by 8.4 bu/ac1
160
► In 110-RM, Monsanto’s lead
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
remains a strong 12 bu/ac
advantage1
DEKALB Share 2008 GROWTH TARGETS
DEKALB SHARE
2-3 Share Points
DEKALB
ASI 1-2 Share Points
1. 2007 Monsanto and third party trials through November
15, 2007. Weighted average, calculated to 15% moisture.
DEKALB products are compared with national competitive
products that contain similar crop protection traits.
12
13. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
With Added Trait Protection, Strong Growth Opportunity
Remains For U.S. Corn
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2005-2010F
220 60
U.S. TRIPLE-STACK ACRES
200
U.S. TRAIT ACRES
50
180
(IN MILLIONS)
(IN MILLIONS)
160
40
140
120
30
100
80
20
60
40 10
20
CATALYSTS OF
0 0
2010 TRIPLE STACK
2007 2008F
2005 2006 2007 2008 2010F
Opportunity
GROWTH
Rootworm Control 45-55M
20.8M 26-28M
Channel Triple
Corn Borer Control Penetration
60-70M
42.4M 40-42M
Glyphosate Tolerance DEKALB Supply
80M
57.9M 63-65M
Guarantee
Triple Stack 17.6M 25-27M 45-55M
Yield Insurance
Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute
acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.
Program
Source: “Monsanto Biotechnology Trait Acreage” available through: monsanto.com/investors/
13
14. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
With Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans, Yield Also Becomes
Focus of Next Wave of Commercial Products
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS: STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL FIELD RESULTS
A New Soybean Platform
Near-Isoline Comparisons:
Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready
% Yield Increase over Roundup Ready
12%
HIGHER-YIELDING
DICAMBA-TOLERANT
11%
10%
9% VISTIVE III
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD
9%
8%
7% 7%
6% ► Roundup Ready 2 Yield
becomes the platform for
4% soybean traits
► Three soybean pipeline
2% traits advanced to Phase 3
commercial development in
0% recent R&D update
4 YEAR
2004 2005 2006 2007 AVERAGE
Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent higher
than Roundup Ready soybeans based on 73 Monsanto field
trials from 2004-2007
14
15. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Like Roundup RReady 2 Yield Soybeans, SmartStax Corn
Reset the Trait Platform for Corn
SmartStax Value: On-Farm Commercial Preparation: Field Data Generation
+ Increased Yield (per-acre and on-farm) YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 FORWARD
YIELD
YIELD COMPONENT 2006 2008+
BENEFIT1
Focus: Focus: SmartStax
PER-ACRE
Feasibility of full bred into elite
Improved consistency: 1-2% trait integration germplasm; yield
Primary pests data generation
Improved protection: 1-2%
Secondary pests Field Testing: 2007
ON-FARM Testing focused on trait
performance, such as
Reduced refuge 3-6%
consistency of control of
Flexibility to move to one technology targeted pests
+
platform on-farm
Initial 2007 Results
+ Durability
• Indicates superior
Flexibility to increase planting
rootworm consistency
+
populations
versus triple-stack
+ Platform for future traits standard
TRIALS: 56
• Good control of
+ Access to superior seed
STATES: 12 secondary pests
Total SmartStax Value
=
1. Yield benefit reflects expected yield benefit above triple-stack standard, on a
per-acre and whole-farm basis as noted. Ranges may overlap
15
16. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Entire Monsanto Pipeline Is Targeted Toward Meeting
Emerging Trends Over Next Decade
BIOTECH TRAIT PIPELINE: JANUARY 2008 UPDATE
PHASE PHASE PHASE PHASE
PHASE PHASE PHASE PHASE
D
D 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
AGRONOMIC TRAITS
YIELD AND STRESS PIPELINE
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS
DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
FAMILY
YIELDGARD VT PRO
2ND-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORER
DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
SMARTSTAX CORN
2ND-GEN DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
DICAMBA-TOLERANT SOYBEANS
NITROGEN-UTILIZATION CORN
FAMILY INSECT-PROTECTED + ROUNDUP
READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS
NITROGEN-UTILIZATION CORN
BOLLGARD III
BROAD-ACRE HIGHER-YIELDING
CORN FAMILY SOYBEAN NEMATODE-RESISTANCE
HIGHER-YIELDING CORN SOYBEAN DISEASE
BROAD-ACRE HIGHER-YIELDING DICAMBA-TOLERANT COTTON
SOYBEAN FAMILY
COTTON LYGUS CONTROL
HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEANS
YIELDGARD ROOTWORM III
2ND-GEN HIGHER-YIELDING
SOYBEANS
VALUE-ADDED TRAITS
DROUGHT-TOLERANT COTTON
FAMILY
DROUGHT-TOLERANT COTTON EXTRAX™ CORN PROCESSING
SYSTEM + MAVERA™ HIGH-VALUE
CORN WITH LYSINE2
BROAD-ACRE HIGHER-YIELDING
CANOLA FAMILY
HIGH-OIL SOYBEANS
HIGHER-YIELDING + ROUNDUP
READY 2 YIELD CANOLA1 2ND-GEN HIGH-OIL SOYBEANS
OMEGA-3 ENRICHED SOYBEANS
VISTIVE III SOYBEANS
High Impact Technologies (HIT) project
HIGH-STEARATE SOYBEANS
Jan. 3, 2008 Advancements/Additions (VIA BIOTECH)
The colored bar associated with each project indicates which phase that project is in. It is HIGH-OIL CORN
not intended to represent the relative status of the project within a particular stage.
1. For higher-yielding + Roundup Ready 2 Yield canola, only the value of the higher-yielding trait is incorporated into the Yield and Stress collaboration with BASF
2. Value of licensing the EXTRAX™ technology is shared with Cargill as a part of Renessen joint venture
17. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Projects Like Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Are Positioned to Drive
Yield and Meet Demand In New Environment
PER-ACRE NITROGEN COST STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
FOR CORN PRODUCTION, IN ILLINOIS: 1990-20071 Breakthroughs in Nitrogen-Use Research
Under normal nitrogen conditions, lead Nitrogen-
$80
Utilization trait has demonstrated yield advantages
$75
in multiple backgrounds over multiple years
$70
12
*
Yield Increase (bu/Ac)
$65
** ***
*
10
$60 8
6
$55
4
2
$50
0
$45
-2 TRIALS IN
TRIALS IN
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
MULTIPLE
MULTIPLE
HYBRID
HYBRID
Nitrogen accounts for approximately one-fifth of BACKGROUNDS
BACKGROUNDS
the operating costs for a corn producer2 (15 LOC)
(16 LOC)
Nitrogen-Utilization corn offers the potential to
bring the value of nitrogen into the seed: 2005 2006 2007
Reducing farmers’ exposure to nitrogen
•
*
price volatility Statistically significant @ p≤0.10
Boosting yield
• Bar color correlates with the specific hybrid background tested.
Improving ease of use, flexibility Same bar color in different tests and different years indicates same
•
hybrid was used.
All trials conducted under sufficient nitrogen application levels.
1. Illinois Farm Business Farm Management
2. USDA
17
18. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Strong Cash Position Creates Opportunity to Bolster Strategic
Position and Drive Differentiation Through Innovation
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
In an expanding agriculture environment, value is defined by scarcity or
innovation – Monsanto’s strategy is targeted on innovation: discovering and
developing technology that is game-changing
CATEGORY HISTORICAL EXAMPLES OUTLOOK
► Delta and Pine Land • ASI acquisition phase
Intensify The Space
largely finished
► American Seeds, Inc.
Strengthen position of the core • Continued opportunity
(ASI) Companies for add-on international
business, largely by building the
► Agroeste (Brazil) corn and vegetable
germplasm footprint of seeds
companies
► Seminis • Continually looking for
Expand The Space
areas where Monsanto
can apply core
Expansion to adjacent spaces –
technology quickly or
where core technology can be applied
benefit for advanced
quickly and with transformational research
benefits
► Yield and Stress R&D • Most highly
Redefine The Space
transformational, but
Collaboration with
rarest to find appropriate
Investments that rewrite the BASF
fit
landscape, providing new avenues, ► SmartStax agreement
new technologies and creating new with Dow
markets
► Global Seed Treatment
Alliances
18
19. SEED & TRAIT STRATEGY
Global Seed Treatment Alliance Creates New, But
Complementary Opportunity In Creating and Protecting Yield
GLOBAL SEED TREATMENT INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
KEY INDUSTRY DATA1
Seed Treatment Alliances
Monsanto entered a series of ROW
Asia
separate alliances with • Global seed treatment sector: >$1.5B
U.S.
leading global seed-treatment annually, with $800-$900M in the crops
that are key to Monsanto’s business
suppliers to create a platform
• Sector CAGR of 10-12%
to launch proprietary seed Canada
• Widespread use of biotech traits
treatments launched in Latin increases the use and value of seed
Europe
parallel with our future core- America treatments
crop technologies
BENEFITS:
► Complement to established PROJECTED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE
seed-and-trait strategy of 2008 2009 2010 2011
creating and preserving
Alliance
yield
platform
2009 2010
► Monsanto in-licenses 2011
established Launch Proprietary Seed
active ingredients and and activated proprietary seed treatment treatments
leverages its existing coatings with in place for expand into
formulation technology cotton, on
Roundup SmartStax
commercial newest Delta
Ready 2 Yield,
capabilities for proprietary
aimed at launch and Pine Land
treatments incremental varieties
yield boost in
► Strong margin opportunity
soybeans
1. Phillips McDougall and Monsanto Estimates
19
20. SUMMARY
Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to
Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years
2012 GROWTH RANGE
MONSANTO GROSS PROFIT
GROWTH TARGET Gross profit targeted to double
from 2007 through 2012
$9,000
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
$8,000
All growth is organic, from
$7,000 base business and pipeline
GROSS PROFIT
(IN MILLIONS)
U.S. Corn
$6,000
International Corn
$5,000 Soybeans
Cotton
$4,000
Seminis
R&D Pipeline
$3,000
Acquisitions to be pursued,
$2,000
but are not included in this
$1,000 growth projection
$0 Earnings continue to translate
into operating cash, and value
2004 2007 2012
MILESTONES
created for shareowners
FEBRUARY 2008 through combination of
Monsanto increases acquisitions, share
FY2008 Ongoing EPS repurchases and dividends
guidance to $2.70-$2.80
from $2.50-$2.60
21. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow
Fiscal Year
2008
Target
$ Millions
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $1,950 - $2,050
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities (1,050)
Free Cash Flow $900 - $1,000
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A