Here some trends shaping the future of civil aviation

1. Civil Aviation Futures
Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT
proGective / WFSF
Incheon Airport – 29 March 2007
progective@progective.com

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contents
 futures thinking applied to aviation
 what if?
 a world in transition
 conclusion: structural threads of
evolution

3. about the futures of civil
aviation
 you said "aviation"?
 what if?
 trends and uncertainties

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Aviation describes the activities,
industries, and regulatory bodies
associated with aircraft.

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what's next in Aviation?
 increase capacity
 improve safety and reliability
 increase efficiency and performance
 reduce energy consumption and
environmental impact (noise, pollution)
 China, a new challenger for Boeing and
Airbus in 2020?
 …

8. 1. thinking
the unthinkable
wild cards
what if?

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a world at war?
 traditional war
 terrorist war
 invisible war (e-Pearl Harbour)
 organised piracy

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a technological
breakthrough?
 gravity control propulsion
 automated personal air
transport vehicle
 teleportation
 virtual mobility (second life)

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the end of megalopolis?
 megalopolis are
the engines fuelling
globalisation through the
financial flows and
the transportation and
telecommunication networks
they set up

12. 2. a world in transition

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a change in the
world's map cleavages
 from West/East, North/South
 to westerner/non-westerner
 to global cities/remote territories
 to peaceful/instable part of the world
 to an Asian-oriented world
 markets, multinational firms, R&D in S&T, FDI…

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trends by 2030
 global convergence
 expanding global economy
 accelerating pace of scientific change
and dispersion technologies
 emerging powers; slow democratization
and better governance
 global aging phenomenon
 expanding educated middle class
 increased pressures on international
institutions for global regulation

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trends by 2030
 but
 lingering social inequalities
 spreading radical ideologies
 potential for catastrophic terrorism due
to interconnections / interdependences
 proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction
 spreading individual heterogeneity
 increasing control over privacy

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so what for aviation?
 globalization  increasing flows of information,
technology, G&S, capital and people
 increasing of the global growth (by 80% in 2020) +
improving of the living standards, esp. in emerging
countries = huge consuming middle-class 
market
 but globalisation could be slowed, even stopped
by:
 new pandemic (influenza 1918-19: 20 millions deaths)
 sense of physical and economic insecurity (border
controls, restriction on exchanges)

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technology revolution
a new steward?
 convergence
 force-multiplying convergence of
the technologies: information,
biological, materials,
nanotechnologies, etc.
 growing two-way flow of high-tech
brain power between developing
and Western countries
 increasing size of educated
workforce in some developing
countries
 dual-use of new technologies
 for freedom and for control
 for commercial and for military

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technology revolution
 but
 next leaders in innovation?
 China and India's investments in higher education,
basic research and R&D −esp. in energy, water and
transportation−
 Japan's mastering of robotics
 wild competition to integrate and apply new
technologies, whatever their origin
 IPR or open sources?
 next leader in setting the rules for design, standards,
implementation, privacy, information security…?
 source of tension through
 competition to create/attract tech-advancing people
 resistance of cultural/political groups against
pervasiveness

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so what for aviation?
 faster and cheaper
 L.A. to Tokyo in 4 hours: The Future High-Speed
Civil Transport (MACH 3)
 The Flying Wing carrying 800 Passengers
 small aircraft transportation system for short-
range trips for both private and business
transportation (flying taxi)
 safer
 IFATS: a revolutionary concept for a future air
transportation system by adding as much onboard
autonomy to the aircraft as necessary to fulfil the
overall requirements of improved efficiency and
safety of air transportation

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evolution of societies
 toward a converging society?
 emerging refusal of the increasing pressure on
the environment and resources
 demand for a greater attention to universal
human rights, democratic processes and
sustainable development
 demand for transparency and accountability in
the governance systems
 sensitivity to diversity, multiculturalism,
recognition of minorities; revised values

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evolution of societies
 but
 increasing violence, incivility, stress
 individualism, loneliness
 denying traditional authority
 widening of the gap between having/having
not, info rich/info poor
 excessive resistance from highly conservative
cultural groups to the standardisation of values
 perception of chaos, fragmentation, division
due to the cohabitation of different value sets
 loss of identity, bearings, etc.

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so what for aviation?
 business: co-operation rather than
competition, ethical practices,
environmental responsibility,
collaboration with population prior
to decision-making
 technology: from carbon tax to
electric airships powered by hydrogen
 society: hedonism  international
tourism or cocooning?

23. threads of the Big Picture
a conclusion

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…new paradigm
economy
sciences
&
techniques
space
politics
human rights
humanitarian policy
right to interfere
environment
sustainable
development
‘glocal’
globalisation
mobility
multiculturalism
invention
innovation
ethics
subsidiarity
devolution
governance
network
‘linkingness’
connection
individual
society

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converging : the integration
continents
cultures
prehistory
n +
5000 years
complexity
globalization
interdependencies
noosphere informationinterdisciplinary
megalopolis
men-machines
supra-States
sustainable development

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bringing together
world government
rights of the
future generations
world common good
democracy
(liberty, justice)
human rights
abstract
concrete
religions
ideologies
doctrines
world public
opinion
F. GOUX BAUDIMENT©
acquired
given

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back to the main lines of
evolution
economy
space
politics
individual/
person
society
science
&
technology
regulation
organisation
energy
growth
adaptation
response to
a stimuli

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conclusion
 you can forget the rest of the world
because you will BE the world for the
next 20 years
 but the next challenge is already
beyond 2030 and must be prepared
today:
 an aviation world market encompassing
the entire planet
 an human- and environment-friendly
aviation system

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 A common
rule is that
nothing new
happens
unless there
is emergency

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 Uncertainty,
complexity and
convergence are
the current main
megadrivers
mapping the road

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Now, chose your destination
and fasten your seatbelt!!

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Thank You…