C7 - International Conflicts
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PSCI 2750 - INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Bachelor of Political Science, KIRKHS, IIUM #slidepoli
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C7 - International Conflicts
- 1. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 2013–2014 Update Tenth Edition Joshua S. Goldstein Jon C. Pevehouse Chapter Five: International Conflict
- 2. Anti-Indian protester and Indian security forces in Kashmir, 2010.
- 3. 5.1 The Wars of the World Types of War Theories of the Causes of War
- 4. Types of War Hegemonic Total Limited Raids, low-intensity conflict Civil Guerrilla Violence of War Transition from war to peace
- 6. Theories of the Causes of War Individual level of analysis Domestic level of analysis Interstate level of analysis Global level of analysis Competing Theories on all levels of analysis
- 7. Once armed groups stop shooting, a long process of postwar transition ensues. Disarming and demobilizing militias is the most critical aspect of this transition, but also the most difficult because it leaves disarmed groups vulnerable. Here, a major armed group turns in weapons under an amnesty in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, 2009. GIVING UP THE GUNS
- 8. Political scientists do not agree on a theory of why great wars like World War II occur and cannot predict whether they could happen again. The city of Stalingrad (Volgograd) was decimated during Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union, 1943. WHY WAR?
- 9. 5.1 The Wars of the World Q: The goal of which type of war is to force the surrender of the enemy’s government and replace it with one of the victor’s choosing? A) Total B) Limited C) Guerrilla D) Civil
- 10. Answer: A) Total
- 11. True-False: A war over control of the rules of the international system as a whole is a hegemonic war.
- 12. Answer: True
- 13. 5.2 Conflicts of Ideas Nationalism Ethnic Conflict Genocide Religious Conflict Ideological Conflict
- 14. Nationalism Identity-based sources of international conflict Nationalism May be most important forces in world politics Nation Around 1500 countries began to bring entire nations together Self-determination
- 15. Ethnic Conflict Ethnic groups In ethnic conflicts, there is often pressure to redraw borders by force. When ethnic populations are minorities in territories controlled by rival ethnic groups, they may be driven from their land (ethnic cleansing) or systematically exterminated (genocide). Causes of ethnic hostility
- 16. Ethnic conflicts play a role in many international conflicts. Ethnocentrism based on an in-group bias can promote intolerance and ultimately dehumanization of an out-group, as evidenced by genocides in Darfur (Sudan), Rwanda, and Bosnia; South African apartheid; the persecution of Jews and other minorities in Nazi Germany; and slavery in the United States. In 2008, after decades of peace and tolerance, Kenya erupted in bloody ethnic violence after a disputed presidential election. Here, a mob from one ethnic group attacks and drives away all members of a rival ethnic group from a formerly mixed town. DRIVING OUT THE OUT-GROUP
- 18. President of Liberia, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf
- 19. Genocide In extreme cases, governments use genocide try to destroy scapegoated groups or political rivals. Rwanda Sudan
- 20. Religious Conflict Religion is the core of the community’s value system in much of the world. When overlaid on ethnic and territorial conflicts, religion often surfaces as the central and most visible division between groups. There is nothing inherent in religion that mandates conflicts. Fundamentalist movements Islamist movements Armed Islamist groups
- 21. Religious intolerance can exacerbate tensions between groups, sometimes increasing violence, with international implications. The most salient religious conflict today is between Shi’ite and Sunni branches of Islam, centered in Iran and Saudi Arabia. The split played out in devastating violence in Iraq around 2007 and now helps fuel the Syrian civil war (2013). RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES
- 25. In some Muslim-populated countries, Islam is a political rallying point— especially in authoritarian countries in which the mosque is a rare permissible gathering point. Islamist politicians are developing new models of government, mixing democracy and Islamic tradition, especially in the countries most affected by the Arab Spring protests, which frequently peaked after Friday prayers. Here, Egyptians pray during a Friday protest against the authoritarian president early in 2011. THE POLITICS OF ISLAM
- 26. Ideological Conflict Like religion, ideology symbolizes and intensifies conflicts between groups and states more than it causes them. Revolutionary governments typically turn to the pursuit of national interests above ideological interests. Ideologies can help to mobilize national populations to support a state in its international dealings.
- 27. Ideology plays only a limited role in most international conflicts. After revolutions, ideologies such as Marxism may affect foreign policy, but over the following decades, countries such as China or the Soviet Union typically revert to a foreign policy based more on national interests than ideology. Nonetheless, ideological clashes still occur, as between the freedom-loving United States and authoritarian North Korea. Here the different styles of the two countries are on display as the New York Philharmonic performs a rare concert in North Korea, 2008. IDEOLOGICAL SPLIT
- 28. 5.2 Conflicts of Ideas Q: Ethnic groups do which of the following? A) Share ancestral, language, cultural, or religious ties and a common identity B) Want a state of their own C) Have a state of their own D) Resist ethnocentrism to keep tensions low
- 29. Answer: A) Share ancestral, language, cultural, or religious ties and a common identity
- 30. True-False: A current example of ethnic conflict is the use of force by the Sri Lankan government against Tibetans.
- 31. Answer: False
- 32. 5.3 Conflicts of Interest Territorial Disputes Control of Governments Economic Conflict
- 33. Territorial Disputes Conflicts about territory have special importance because of the territorial nature of the state Border disputes Means of controlling territory Secession Interstate borders Lingering disputes
- 34. South American leaders discuss trade, not war, in Argentina, 2010.
- 35. Efforts by a region to secede from a state are a frequent source of international conflict, but international norms generally treat such conflicts as internal matters unless they spill over borders. Increasingly, autonomy agreements are resolving secession conflicts. Here, a million and a half citizens in Barcelona demand independence from recession-wracked Spain for the region of Catalonia, 2012. Leaders of the region promise a referendum in 2014. WE WANT OUT
- 37. Control of islands, and of the large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that surrounds them under the law of the sea, has created a number of complicated interstate conflicts. Japan claims Okinotori, shown here in 2005, as an island with an EEZ, but China calls it merely a “rock” without surrounding economic rights. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION
- 38. Economic Conflict Economic competition is the most pervasive form of conflict in IR Economic transactions also contain strong element of mutual economic gain Use of violence would for the most part interrupt and diminish profits Economic conflicts do still bear on international security Drug trafficking
- 39. Because drug trafficking crosses national borders and involves lots of guns and money, it is a source of interstate conflict. Afghanistan supplies most of the opium used to make heroin worldwide, and this illicit trade funds the Taliban in its fight against NATO and the Afghan government. Here, a poor Afghan farmer, dependent on opium poppies to make a living, checks his crop, 2007. DRUG WARS
- 40. 5.3 Conflicts of Interest Q: Islam has played a role in many recent conflicts because it is __________. A) inherently warlike B) less peaceful than other religions C) predominant in an area of the world where geographical and historical circumstances encourage conflict D) moving into traditionally secular areas
- 41. Answer: C) Predominant in an area of the world where geographical and historical circumstances encourage conflict
- 42. True-False: Because positive gains from economic activities are more effective inducements than negative threats of violence, economic conflicts lead to violence much less often.
- 43. Answer: True
- 45. Chapter Discussion Question How does nationalism influence IR? Why do demands for statehood or for the adjustment of state borders so often lead to conflict? What role does ethnicity play in context of nationalism and conflict?
Notas do Editor
- Kashmir, where India, Pakistan, and China intersect, is home to a serious border dispute. The Indian-held part of Kashmir is predominantly inhabited by Muslims, a group that is the majority in Pakistan but a minority in India. A Line of Control divides the disputed province. Pakistan accuses India of oppressing Kashmiris and thwarting an international agreement to decide Kashmir’s future by a popular referendum. India accuses Pakistan of aiding and infiltrating Islamic radicals who carry out attacks in Indian occupied Kashmir.
- Largest contemporary wars Iraq Western Sudan (Darfur) Afghanistan Mali Of the 13 wars, all are in the global South. All but Colombia and the Philippines are in a zone of active fighting spanning parts of Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. In five smaller zones, dozens of wars of recent decades have ended. Most peace agreements in the world’s postwar zones are holding up. MyLab Activity 1: Simulations. Conflict: You are a Strategic Analyst http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_mpsk_media_1/sims_2011/strategic_analyst/player.html Creative assignment: In recent years, Kenyan military forces have infringed upon Somali territorial integrity due to attacks by Al-Shabaab Islamic militants based in Somalia. Somalia has dealt for some time with secessionist movements, as well, focused in Somaliland and in Khatumo State. Given what students have learned from this chapter and from this MyLab simulation, ask students to break into several groups: one representing economic conflict and one representing religious conflict. Ask these two groups to decide what role their particular issue plays in Somalia’s situation. What is the balance of influence, and what is the crossover between these two issues? Have students report their findings to the class. Ask two additional groups to represent Somalia and Kenya, respectively, and discuss their respective arguments around Kenyan intervention in Somalia, in response to Somalia-based Al-Shabaab carrying out attacks in Kenya. They should take into consideration such relevant issues as territorial integrity and revolutionary ideology. Then have each group stand before the class and lobby the class for support of their position, allowing the class to use what they have learned over the course of the chapter to question and push the Kenyan and Somalian representatives.
- Transition from war to peace Postwar reconciliation Conflict resolution Transitional governments representing opposing factions Economic reconstruction Security sector reform Disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration Truth commissions Lecture starter: Introduce the definition of war on pp. 153-155. The variety of war varies widely in size and character, from guerrilla wars and raids to hegemonic war. Discuss the various types of war that result from the use of violent means as leverage, reminding students that along this array of uses of violence, the precise definition of war remains uncertain.
- Figure 5.1 shows the 14 wars in progress in January 2013. The largest are in Syria and Afghanistan. All 14 wars are in the global South. All but Colombia are in a zone of active fighting (outlined on the map) spanning parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.
- Individual level of analysis Rational decisions of leaders Deviations from rationality Domestic level of analysis Capitalist vs. communist states Rich industrialized vs. poor agrarian Democratic peace Interstate level of analysis Power transition theory Statistical probabilities of war - effects of democracy, government structure, trade, international organizations Global level of analysis Major warfare is cyclical - long economic waves (Kondratieff cycles) 100-year cycle based on creation and decay of world orders Opposite approach - linear long-term change in the propensity for war - war becoming less likely over time due to development of technology and international norms - war and military force becoming obsolete as means of leverage Competing theories on all levels of analysis - cannot predict with confidence which of world’s many international conflicts will lead to war
- Deterrence is supposed to stop wars by building up power and threatening its use. But the theory of arms races holds that wars are caused, not prevented, by such actions. No general formula has been discovered to tell us in what circumstances each of these principles holds true.
- Few useful generalizations can tell us which societies are more prone or less prone to war. The same society may change greatly over time. For example, Japan was prone to using violence in international conflicts before World War II, but has been averse to such violence since then.
- Six types of international conflict: ethnic, religious, ideological, territorial, governmental, economic Most difficult types of conflict have intangible elements such as ethnic hatred, religious fervor, or ideology – all conflicts of ideas. These identity-based sources of international conflict today have been shaped historically by nationalism – link between identity and internationally recognized statehood. MyLab Activity 2: Video. The Iran-Iraq War http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_mpsk_vcs_1/vcs2_08_the_iran-iraq_war.html Creative Assignment: After students have viewed this MyLab video, ask them to propose Iranian policies that might have helped to prevent the Iraqi invasion. Ask them to take into consideration what role religion may have played at the ideological level in the conflict, since Hussein’s government was largely secular and the nation predominantly Sunni, whereas Iran’s new government was fundamentally Shi’ite. The power of psychological bias in territorial disputes cannot be ignored, in considering an eight-year-long war, the frontlines of which hardly changed. In turn, ask students to consider how the international system might have responded differently if Iran hadn’t been a revolutionary Islamic government. Certainly, to say the U.S. supported Iran as led by the Shah, is an understatement, and one can only imagine that the Iraqi government equated the revolution in Iran with a lack of threat via U.S. military reaction. Indeed, the U.S. supported Hussein’s war against Iran, with President Regan arguing that the U.S. could not afford for Iraq to lose the war. Ask students why this would have been Regan’s policy, given Iraq and Iran’s role in the Cold War. (See Chapter Outline Point II.)
- Nationalism: most difficult type of conflict in which intangible elements such as ethnic hatred, religious fervor, or ideology come into play Identity-based sources of international conflict shaped historically by nationalism as the link between identity and internationally recognized statehood Nationalism - devotion to the interest of one’s own nation over others May be the most important forces in world politics in the past two centuries Nation - a population that shares an identity, usually including a language and culture Around 1500 countries such as France and Austria began to bring entire nations together into single states Self-determination - people who identify as a nation should have the right to form a state and exercise sovereignty over their affairs - widely accepted in international affairs today, but secondary to principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity Classroom Activity: Visit the global conflict map at http://conflictmap.org/#. Research some of the conflicts that are currently going on in the world and discuss with the class how they would a) classify them according to the types of conflict you learned about in chapter 5, b) identify and explain geographic patterns, and c) identify and explain possible causes. Subsequently, discuss the findings.
- Ethnic groups - large groups of people who share ancestral, language, cultural, or religious ties and a common identity Often form basis for nationalist sentiments Territorial control closely tied to aspiration of ethnic groups for statehood Some ethnic groups lack any home state (Kurds) In ethnic conflicts, there is often pressure to redraw borders by force When ethnic populations are minorities in territories controlled by rival ethnic groups, they may be driven from their land (ethnic cleansing) or systematically exterminated (genocide) Causes of ethnic hostility Longstanding historical conflict over specific territories or natural resources or over one ethnic group’s economic exploitation or political domination of another Kinship group - group identity - ethnocentrism (in-group bias)
- After years of struggle, in late 2004, the Sudanese government and the Darfur rebels reached a tentative peace agreement, and the African Union and United Nations sent in a joint peacekeeping mission in 2007. After further years of Sudanese government delays and other frustrations, the African Union and the UN had 23,000 uniformed personnel on the ground by 2011.
- Kurds enjoyed autonomy in part of northern Iraq under U.S. protection in the 1990s and maintained a quasi-autonomous status in post-Saddam Iraq. The Kurds’ success in the 2010 Iraqi elections gave them a strong position to retain this status. In the Syrian civil war in 2011–2013, Kurdish areas gained considerable autonomy while straddling the fence politically between the government and the rebels.
- In acknowledgment of their nonviolent role in promoting peace, democracy and gender equality, the Nobel Peace Prize for 2011 was awarded to three women from Africa and the Arab world. The winners included Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the first woman to be elected president in modern Africa.
- Government may use genocide—the systematic extermination of ethnic or religions groups in whole or in part to destroy scapegoated groups or political rivals. Rwanda Hutu and Tutsi groups Pathological genocide: a deviation from both rationality and social norms Dehumanization Sudan Northern Muslims and Southern Christians Role of Cold War Kept ethnic conflicts in check
- Religion is the core of the community’s value system in much of the world - people whose religious practices differ are easily disdained and treated as unworthy or even inhuman When overlaid on ethnic and territorial conflicts, religion often surfaces as the central and most visible division between groups. Nothing inherent in religion mandates conflicts. Fundamentalist movements - members organize their lives and communities around their religious beliefs Willing to surface and even die for those beliefs Larger and more powerful in recent decades in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, and other religions Challenge values and practices of secular political organizations - those created apart from religious establishments Islamist movements Sunni Muslims (the majority) and Shi’ite Muslims (concentrated in Iran, southern Iraq, southern Lebanon, Bahrain) Advocate basing government and society on Islamic law Some groups anti-Western Follow in a long tradition of global North-South conflict - struggle against colonialism and for the world’s poor countries and people Armed Islamist groups Some Sunni, some Shi’ite - in some cases violently disagree with each other Cases of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, al Qaeda, Palestine, others Classroom Activity: Ask students to write a brief paragraph exploring the ways in which religion and ideology are alike and different. Afterward, have several students read their findings aloud. Ask them to identify two recent international conflicts—one fundamentally caused by religion and the other fundamentally caused by ideology—and briefly describe them. Then have students demonstrate how the different causes help explain the different consequences or outcomes. Discussion Question: Ask students how the rise of fundamentalism among the world’s major religions might challenge traditional notions of state sovereignty. How does this trend strengthen or weaken the United Nations and other attempts to create supranational authority (which also challenges state sovereignty)?
- Sects within Islam include Sunni Muslims (the majority within Islam), Shi’ite Muslims (concentrated in Iran, southern Iraq, southern Lebanon, and Bahrain), and many smaller branches and sects. Most countries with mainly Muslim populations belong to the Islamic Conference, an IGO.
- The world’s predominantly Islamic countries stretch from Nigeria to Indonesia, centered historically in the Middle East (see Figure 5.3 ) but with the largest populations in South and Southeast Asia. Many international conflicts around this zone involve Muslims on one side and non-Muslims on the other, as a result of geographical and historical circumstances including colonialism and oil.
- Public opinion in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries shows some misconceptions and differences in opinion (see Figure 5.4). Support for Islamist radicals varies greatly among countries. A 2005 poll recalls “mirror image” perceptions. In five Western industrialized countries, about 40 to 80 percent thought Muslims were “fanatical,” and 60 to 80 percent thought they did not respect women. But in three of five Muslim countries, more than 60 percent thought non-Muslims were “fanatical,” and in four of those five countries, a majority thought non-Muslims did not respect women.
- Armed Islamist groups vary tremendously, and in some cases violently disagree with each other (see Table 5.1 ). In particular, divisions between the Sunni and Shi’ite wings of Islam have led to violence. This split played out prominently in Iraq, where Saddam Hussein was a Sunni ruling over a Shi’ite majority (brutally repressing their rebellion after the 1991 Gulf War) and earlier fighting a long deadly war against Shi’ite Iran.
- In the 1990s, Islamic parties gained ground in Turkey—a secular state in which the military has intervened repeatedly to prevent religious politics—and a former Islamist leader has been prime minister since 2003, making Turkey an important model of moderate Islam in the region. Islamist parties have also played leading roles in Iraq’s government since 2003 and played central roles in the Arab Spring countries, winning elections in Tunisia and Egypt. An Islamist faction is a key player among armed Syrian rebels in 2013.
- Ideology symbolizes and intensifies conflicts between groups and states more than it causes them. Because they have a somewhat weaker hold on core values and absolute truth than religions do, they pose somewhat fewer problems for the international system. China Maoist communism in 1949; Russia’s Leninist communism in 1917, U.S. democracy in 1776 All eventually went on to pursue national interests rather than ideological ones. Angola Ideologies can mobilize national populations. Classroom Activity: Ask students to write a brief paragraph exploring the ways in which religion and ideology are alike, and different? Afterward, have several students read their findings aloud. Ask them to identify two recent international conflicts—one fundamentally caused by religion, the other fundamentally caused by ideology—and briefly describe them. Then have students demonstrate how the different causes help explain the different consequences or outcomes.
- In the short term, revolutions do change international relations—they make wars more likely—but not because of ideology. Rather, the sudden change of governments can alter alliances and change the balance of power. With calculations of power being revised by all parties, it is easy to miscalculate or to exaggerate threats on both sides. But ideology itself plays little role in this post-revolutionary propensity for wars: revolutions are seldom exported to other states.
- Conflict of interest: conflicts about material interests are somewhat easier to settle than conflicts of ideas, based on the reciprocity principle. Territorial disputes Means of controlling territory – primarily military Secession – province or region leaving an existing state Ethnic cleansing - driving out or massacre of designated ethnic population Interstate borders Role of the norm of territorial integrity Lingering disputes – Israeli borders; Kashmir; Spratly Islands; Okinotori; Falkland Islands; Kuril Islands Territorial waters – part of national territory UNCLOS EEZs Airspace
- Conflicts about territory have special importance because of the territorial nature of the state Border disputes - irredentism Means of controlling territory - military means - strong norm against trying to alter borders by force Secession - typically domestic problems of little concern to other states - messy when multinational states break up into pieces Interstate borders - few remaining border conflicts remain among long-established states Lingering disputes - Israel, Kashmir, Peru/Ecuador, Spratly Islands, Japan/China, number of smaller conflicts Territorial waters UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 3-mile limit - territory of state 12-mile limit - shipping 200-mile limit - exclusive economic zone (EEZ) - fishing and mineral rights Airspace - considered territory of the state Outer space - international territory
- In 1994, a panel of Latin American judges settled a century-long border dispute between Argentina and Chile over some mountainous terrain that both claimed. The 3-to-2 ruling, after the countries submitted the dispute for judicial arbitration, awarded the territory to Argentina and provoked howls of protest from Chile.
- Increasingly, autonomy for a region has become a realistic compromise between secession and full control by a central government. In 2005, spurred partly by the devastating tsunami a year earlier, separatists in Aceh province, Indonesia, disbanded, giving up on independence and instead participating in regional elections in 2006. The Indonesian government withdrew its 24,000 troops from Aceh and offered the province limited self-rule along with 70 percent of the oil, gas, and mineral wealth earned there.
- International law now gives an island’s owner fishing and mineral rights in surrounding seas for 200 miles in each direction. The tiny disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, whose surrounding waters may hold substantial oil reserves, are claimed in part or in full by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei (see Figure 5.5 ). All of those states except Brunei have resorted to military actions at times to stake their claims.
- The major bone of contention in Russian-Japanese relations is the ownership of the strategically located Kuril Islands, occupied by the Soviet Union in 1945. With islands now bringing control of surrounding economic zones, international conflicts over islands will undoubtedly continue in the coming years.
- Economic competition is the most pervasive form of conflict in IR because economic transactions are pervasive Use of violence would for the most part interrupt and diminish profits - economic conflicts do not usually lead to military force and war Economic conflicts do still bear on international security Mercantilism - trade surplus confers an advantage in international security affairs over the long run Theory of lateral pressure - economic growth of states leads to geographic expansion as they seek natural resources beyond their borders Military industry - world trade in military equipment, but national governments try to keep control of such production, exports Trade in strategic minerals - needed for military purposes, few countries self-sufficient in these materials, sensitivity and vulnerability Distribution of wealth within and among states - potential for violence, revolution Discussion Question: Remind students that segments of the populations in several Central and South American countries, especially in cocaine-producing regions, benefit substantially from the drug trade. Ask students to assess what benefits and complications might arise for those segments of the population. Ask students exactly how this illuminates the intersection of poverty and militarism.
- Conflicts over drugs generally concern states on one side and nonstate actors on the other, but other states can be drawn in because the activities in question cross national borders and may involve corrupt state officials.