Sensitivity Analysis of the Project

1. Decrease in Sales Volume (20%)
Product Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Zest Cola 240,000,000 304,000,000 800,000,000 1,360,000,000 2,160,000,000
Zest White 180,000,000 228,000,000 600,000,000 1,020,000,000 1,620,000,000
Zest Orange 180,000,000 228,000,000 600,000,000 1,020,000,000 1,620,000,000
Zest Appachino 180,000,000 228,000,000 600,000,000 1,020,000,000 1,620,000,000
Zest Lem 120,000,000 152,000,000 400,000,000 680,000,000 1,080,000,000
Zest Ice 180,000,000 228,000,000 600,000,000 1,020,000,000 1,620,000,000
Zest Fruitpunch 120,000,000 152,000,000 400,000,000 680,000,000 1,080,000,000
Zest Minwa 100,000,000 104,000,000 340,000,000 440,000,000 800,000,000
Zest Voltage 13,600,000 18,400,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000
TOTAL 1,313,600,000 1,642,400,000 4,380,000,000 7,300,000,000 11,680,000,000

2. Individual Revenue Generation

3. Individual Production in Units (Bottles)
Product Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Zest Cola 9,600,000 12,160,000 32,000,000 54,400,000 86,400,000
Zest White 7,200,000 9,120,000 24,000,000 40,800,000 64,800,000
Zest Orange 7,200,000 9,120,000 24,000,000 40,800,000 64,800,000
Zest Appachino 7,200,000 9,120,000 24,000,000 40,800,000 64,800,000
Zest Lem 4,800,000 6,080,000 16,000,000 27,200,000 43,200,000
Zest Ice 7,200,000 9,120,000 24,000,000 40,800,000 64,800,000
Zest
Fruitpunch
4,800,000 6,080,000 16,000,000 27,200,000 43,200,000
Zest Minwa 3,921,569 4,078,431 13,333,334 17,254,902 31,372,549
Zest Voltage 151,111 204,445 444,445 666,666 888,889
TOTAL 52,072,680 65,082,876 173,777,778 289,921,568 464,261,438

4. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 1
Cost Zest Cola Zest White
Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice
Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa
Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
197,516,800 148,137,600 148,137,600 148,137,600 98,758,400 148,137,600 98,758,400 102,117,647 16,659,200
Total Labour
Cost**
1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000
Factory
Overheads***
2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,783,000 2,434,150
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
202,498,838 153,119,638 153,119,638 153,119,638 103,740,438 153,119,638 103,740,438 107,448,535 21,641,238
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
30,862,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 30,862,000 15,431,000 30,862,000 21,274,510 5,553,067
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800) (15,431,000) (15,431,000) (15,431,000) (37,034,400) (24,689,600) (37,034,400) (38,294,118) (10,412,000)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold
190,154,038 153,119,638 153,119,638 153,119,638 97,568,038 143,861,038 97,568,038 90,428,927 16,782,305

5. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 2
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
172,827,200 123,448,000 123,448,000 123,448,000 98,758,400 123,448,000 98,758,400 102,117,647 13,882,666
Total Labour
Cost** 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,543,000 2,511,000
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
176,750,200 127,371,000 127,371,000 127,371,000 102,681,400 127,371,000 102,681,400 106,072,647 17,805,666
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(30,862,000) (15,431,000) (15,431,000) (15,431,000) (30,862,000) (15,431,000) (30,862,000) (21,274,510) (5,553,067)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 145,888,200 111,940,000 111,940,000 111,940,000 71,819,400 111,940,000 71,819,400 84,798,137 12,252,599

6. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 3
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
469,102,400 360,468,160 360,468,160 360,468,160 271,585,600 360,468,160 271,585,600 272,313,726 22,212,266
Total Labour
Cost** 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,735,000 2,372,670
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
474,022,958 365,388,718 365,388,718 365,388,718 276,506,158 365,388,718 276,506,158 277,596,614 27,132,824
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
30,862,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 37,034,400 24,689,600 37,034,400 38,294,118 10,412,000
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800) (3,086,200) (3,086,200) (3,086,200) (6,172,400) (3,086,200) (6,172,400) (1,234,480) (3,470,667)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 461,678,158 377,733,518 377,733,518 377,733,518 307,368,158 386,992,118 307,368,158 314,656,252 34,074,157

7. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 4
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest Orange Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
864,136,000 617,240,000 617,240,000 617,240,000 444,412,800 617,240,000 444,412,800 391,450,980 41,648,000
Total Labour
Cost** 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,696,000 2,323,491
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
869,007,379 622,111,379 622,111,379 622,111,379 449,284,179 622,111,379 449,284,179 396,694,868 46,519,379
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
12,344,800 3,086,200 3,086,200 3,086,200 6,172,400 3,086,200 6,172,400 1,234,480 3,470,667
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800) (1,543,100) (1,543,100) (1,543,100) (37,034,400) (1,543,100) (37,034,400) (3,394,820) (20,824,000)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 838,145,379 623,654,479 623,654,479 623,654,479 418,422,179 623,654,479 418,422,179 394,534,528 29,166,046

8. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 5
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest Orange Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
1,357,928,000 987,584,000 987,584,000 987,584,000 641,929,600 987,584,000 641,929,600 646,745,098 49,977,600
Total Labour
Cost** 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000 1,412,000
Factory
Overheads**
*
2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,696,000 2,323,491
Cost of
Goods
Manufacture
d
1,362,799,379 992,455,379 992,455,379 992,455,379 646,800,979 992,455,379 646,800,979 651,988,986 54,848,979
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
43,206,800 1,543,100 1,543,100 1,543,100 37,034,400 1,543,100 37,034,400 3,394,820 20,824,000
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(74,068,800) 0 0 0 (6,172,400) 0 (6,172,400) (308,620) (13,882,667)

9. Total Cost of
Goods Sold 1,331,937,379 993,998,479 993,998,479 993,998,479 677,662,979 993,998,479 677,662,979 655,075,186 61,790,312

10. Increase in Cost of Labour (25%)
Individual Cost of Selling
Year 1
Cost Zest Cola Zest White
Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice
Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa
Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
216,034,000 154,310,000 154,310,000 154,310,000 123,448,000 154,310,000 123,448,000 127,647,059 17,353,333
Total Labour
Cost**
1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000
Factory
Overheads***
2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,511,000 2,543,000 2,511,000
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
220,310,000 158,586,000 158,586,000 158,586,000 127,724,000 158,586,000 127,724,000 131,955,059 21,629,333
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(30,862,000
)
(15,431,000
)
(15,431,000
)
(15,431,000)
(30,862,000
)
(15,431,000
)
(30,862,000)
(21,274,510
)
(5,553,067)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold
189,448,000 143,155,000 143,155,000 143,155,000 96,862,000 143,155,000 96,862,000 110,680,549 16,076,266

11. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 2
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
246,896,000 185,172,000 185,172,000 185,172,000 123,448,000 185,172,000 123,448,000 127,647,059 20,824,000
Total Labour
Cost** 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,434,150 2,783,000 2,434,150
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
251,095,150 189,371,150 189,371,150 189,371,150 127,647,150 189,371,150 127,647,150 132,195,059 25,023,150
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
30,862,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 30,862,000 15,431,000 30,862,000 21,274,510 5,553,067
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800)
(15,431,000
)
(15,431,000
)
(15,431,000)
(37,034,400
)
(24,689,600
)
(37,034,400)
(38,294,118
)
(10,412,000)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 238,750,350 189,371,150 189,371,150 189,371,150 121,474,750 180,112,550 121,474,750 115,175,451 20,164,217

12. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 3
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest
Orange
Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest
Minwa
Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
586,378,000
450,585,20
0
450,585,200 450,585,200
339,482,00
0
450,585,20
0
339,482,000
340,392,15
7
27,765,333
Total Labour
Cost** 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,372,670 2,735,000 2,372,670
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
590,515,670
454,722,87
0
454,722,870 454,722,870
343,619,67
0
454,722,87
0
343,619,670
344,892,15
7
31,903,003
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
30,862,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 15,431,000 37,034,400 24,689,600 37,034,400 38,294,118 10,412,000
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800) (3,086,200) (3,086,200) (3,086,200) (6,172,400) (3,086,200) (6,172,400) (1,234,480) (3,470,667)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 578,170,870
467,067,67
0
467,067,670 467,067,670
374,481,67
0
476,326,27
0
374,481,670
381,951,79
5
38,844,336

13. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 4
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest Orange Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest
Minwa
Zest
Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
1,080,170,000 771,550,000 771,550,000 771,550,000 555,516,000 771,550,000 555,516,000 489,313,725 52,060,000
Total Labour
Cost** 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000
Factory
Overheads*** 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,696,000 2,323,491
Cost of Goods
Manufacture
d
1,084,258,491 775,638,491 775,638,491 775,638,491 559,604,491 775,638,491 559,604,491 493,774,725 56,148,491
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
12,344,800 3,086,200 3,086,200 3,086,200 6,172,400 3,086,200 6,172,400 1,234,480 3,470,667
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(43,206,800) (1,543,100) (1,543,100) (1,543,100)
(37,034,400
)
(1,543,100) (37,034,400) (3,394,820) (20,824,000)
Total Cost of
Goods Sold 1,053,396,491 777,181,591 777,181,591 777,181,591 528,742,491 777,181,591 528,742,491 491,614,385 38,795,158

14. Individual Cost of Selling
Year 5
Cost Zest Cola Zest White Zest Orange Zest
Appachino
Zest Lem Zest Ice Zest
Fruitpunch
Zest Minwa Zest Voltage
Total Raw
Material
Cost*
1,697,410,000 1,234,480,000 1,234,480,000 1,234,480,000 802,412,000 1,234,480,000 802,412,000 808,431,373 62,472,000
Total Labour
Cost** 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000 1,765,000
Factory
Overheads**
*
2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,323,491 2,696,000 2,323,491
Cost of
Goods
Manufacture
d
1,701,498,491 1,238,568,491 1,238,568,491 1,238,568,491 806,500,491 1,238,568,491 806,500,491 812,892,373 66,560,491
Finished
Goods
(Opening)
43,206,800 1,543,100 1,543,100 1,543,100 37,034,400 1,543,100 37,034,400 3,394,820 20,824,000
Finished
Goods
(Ending)
(74,068,800) 0 0 0 (6,172,400) 0 (6,172,400) (308,620) (13,882,667)

15. Total Cost of
Goods Sold 1,670,636,491 1,240,111,591 1,240,111,591 1,240,111,591 837,362,491 1,240,111,591 837,362,491 815,978,573 73,501,824
Presented Value of Inflows
Year Cash Inflows PV Cash Inflows
1 345,196,305 277,061,372.32
2 424,125,652 273,221,093.77
3 1,292,817,698 668,446,750.92
4 2,426,952,215 1,007,164,932.42
5 4,320,297,180 1,439,006,762.48
Total 3,664,900,912
Net Present Value = PV of
Inflows - PV of Outflows
3,489,900,912
IRR = 175,000,000 =
345,196,305
+
424,125,652
+
1,292,817,698
+
2,426,952,215
+
4,320,297,180
(1 + i) (1+i)2 (1+i)3 (1+i)4 (1+i)5
IRR = 263.16%

17. Pay Back Period
175,000,000
0.51 345,196,305 (170,196,305)
424,125,652 (594,321,957)
1,292,817,698 (1,887,139,655)
2,426,952,215 (4,314,091,870)
4,320,297,180 (8,634,389,050)
Discounted Pay Back Period
0.63 345,196,305 277,061,372.32 (102,061,372.32)
424,125,652 273,221,093.77 (375,282,466.08)
1,292,817,698 668,446,750.92 (1,043,729,217.00)
2,426,952,215 1,007,164,932.42 (2,050,894,149.43)
4,320,297,180 1,439,006,762.48 (3,489,900,911.91)
Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 345,196,305 424,125,652 1,292,817,698 2,426,952,215 4,320,297,180
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year
= 0.507 Years
Discounted Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 277,061,372 273,221,094 668,446,751 1,007,164,932 1,439,006,762
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year

18. = 0.632 Years

19. Presented Value of Inflows
Year Cash Inflows PV Cash Inflows
1 342,686,475 275,046,933.19
2 437,006,280 281,518,774.54
3 1,291,069,739 667,542,974.99
4 2,432,518,549 1,009,474,914.62
5 4,325,863,513 1,440,860,799.48
Total 3,674,444,397
Net Present Value = PV of
Inflows - PV of Outflows
3,499,444,397
IRR = 175,000,000 =
342,686,475
+
437,006,280
+
1,291,069,739
+
2,432,518,549
+
4,325,863,513
(1 + i) (1+i)2 (1+i)3 (1+i)4 (1+i)5
IRR =
263.47%

20. Pay Back Period
175,000,000
0.51 342,686,475 (167,686,475)
437,006,280 (604,692,755)
1,291,069,739 (1,895,762,494)
2,432,518,549 (4,328,281,043)
4,325,863,513 (8,654,144,556)
Discounted Pay Back Period
0.64 342,686,475 275,046,933.19 (100,046,933.19)
437,006,280 281,518,774.54 (381,565,707.73)
1,291,069,739 667,542,974.99 (1,049,108,682.73)
2,432,518,549 1,009,474,914.62 (2,058,583,597.35)
4,325,863,513 1,440,860,799.48 (3,499,444,396.83)
Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 342,686,475 437,006,280 1,291,069,739 2,432,518,549 4,325,863,513
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year
= 0.511 Years
Discounted Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 275,046,933 281,518,775 667,542,975 1,009,474,915 1,440,860,799
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year

21. = 0.636 Years

22. Presented Value of Inflows
Year Cash Inflows PV Cash Inflows
1 377,403,119 302,911,197.35
2 492,979,728 317,576,783.80
3 1,455,223,777 752,418,231.20
4 2,741,216,811 1,137,582,119.31
5 4,824,734,690 1,607,025,062.59
Total 4,117,513,394
Net Present Value = PV of
Inflows - PV of Outflows
3,942,513,394
IRR = 175,000,000 =
377,403,119
+
492,979,728
+
1,455,223,777
+
2,741,216,811
+
4,824,734,690
(1 + i) (1+i)2 (1+i)3 (1+i)4 (1+i)5
IRR = 284.96%

23. Pay Back Period
175,000,000
0.46 377,403,119 (202,403,119)
492,979,728 (695,382,847)
1,455,223,777 (2,150,606,624)
2,741,216,811 (4,891,823,435)
4,824,734,690 (9,716,558,125)
Discounted Pay Back Period
0.58 377,403,119 302,911,197.35 (127,911,197.35)
492,979,728 317,576,783.80 (445,487,981.15)
1,455,223,777 752,418,231.20 (1,197,906,212.35)
2,741,216,811 1,137,582,119.31 (2,335,488,331.66)
4,824,734,690 1,607,025,062.59 (3,942,513,394.25)
Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 377,403,119 492,979,728 1,455,223,777 2,741,216,811 4,824,734,690
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year
= 0.464 Years
Discounted Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 302,911,197 317,576,784 752,418,231 1,137,582,119 1,607,025,063
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year

24. = 0.578 Years

25. Pay Back Period
175,000,000
0.51 342,686,475 (167,686,475)
437,006,280 (604,692,755)
1,291,069,739 (1,895,762,494)
2,432,518,549 (4,328,281,043)
4,325,863,513 (8,654,144,556)
Discounted Pay Back Period
0.64 342,686,475 275,046,933.47 (100,046,933.47)
437,006,280 281,518,774.54 (381,565,708.02)
1,291,069,739 667,542,974.99 (1,049,108,683.01)
2,432,518,549 1,009,474,914.62 (2,058,583,597.63)
4,325,863,513 1,440,860,799.48 (3,499,444,397.11)
Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 342,686,475 437,006,280 1,291,069,739 2,432,518,549 4,325,863,513
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year
= 0.511 Years
Discounted Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 275,046,933 281,518,775 667,542,975 1,009,474,915 1,440,860,799
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year

26. = 0.636 Years
Presented Value of Inflows
Year Cash Inflows PV Cash Inflows
1 327,881,688 263,164,318.83
2 421,434,384 271,487,382.79
3 1,279,786,663 661,709,101.14
4 2,369,897,025 983,487,504.32
5 3,844,581,771 1,280,555,234.19
Total 3,460,403,541
Net Present Value = PV of
Inflows - PV of Outflows
3,285,403,541
IRR = 175,000,000 =
327,881,688
+
421,434,384
+
1,279,786,663
+
2,369,897,025
+
3,844,581,771
(1 + i) (1+i)2 (1+i)3 (1+i)4 (1+i)5
IRR = 256.21%

27. Pay Back Period
175,000,000
0.53 327,881,688 (152,881,688)
421,434,384 (574,316,072)
1,279,786,663 (1,854,102,735)
2,369,897,025 (4,223,999,760)
3,844,581,771 (8,068,581,531)
Discounted Pay Back Period
0.66 327,881,688 263,164,318.83 (88,164,318.83)
421,434,384 271,487,382.79 (359,651,701.63)
1,279,786,663 661,709,101.14 (1,021,360,802.77)
2,369,897,025 983,487,504.32 (2,004,848,307.09)
3,844,581,771 1,280,555,234.19 (3,285,403,541.28)
Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 327,881,688 421,434,384 1,279,786,663 2,369,897,025 3,844,581,771
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year
= 0.534 Years
Discounted Pay Back Period
(175,000,000) 263,164,319 271,487,383 661,709,101 983,487,504 1,280,555,234
= Years Before full Recovery + Unrecovered amount of Beginning of the Year
Cash Flow of the Year

28. = 0.665 Years