1. Why Nuclear Electricity for India?
V S Arunachalam
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,
Bangalore, INDIA
&
Department of Engineering & Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA

2. Growth of India’s Power Sector
0
20
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80
100
120
140
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
InstalledGenerationCapacity(GW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
PerCapitaConsumption(kWh)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
NumberofVillagesElectrified (Projected)
• Serious Growth after 60’s
• Generation 6th
largest in world
• Per capita consumption low
• Close to 95% villages electrified
Ministry of Power, Government of India

3. The Status
Coal
67166
Gas
11840
Diesel
1196
Hydro
30135
Nuclear
2720
Wind
2488
• Installed Capacity > 120 GW
• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh
• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh
• Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Ministry of Power, Government of India

4. India’s Future Growth
• India needs sustained economic
growth > 8% to radically
improve its HDI
• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-
7%
• Growth hampered by
infrastructure: electric power
– Peak shortfall
– Average shortfall
– High T&D Losses:
– Unscheduled black-outs,
especially in rural areas
– Supply to agriculture sector
not metered and almost free
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total
Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.

5. Growth Areas
• Present growth is skills or resource driven
(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)
• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering
• Rural sector to play a major role
(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving
efficiency)
• Infrastructure building
(roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)
• Manufacturing
The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering
future growth

6. Elasticity and Electric Power Needs
• Target economic growth ~ 8%
• Elasticity of electricity with GDP
stabilizing at ~ 1.2
• Implications for future electric
power requirements by 2015:
– Capacity addition
– Investments
– Fuel mix
– Pricing and Policies
– T&D reforms
0
1
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3
4
5
6
1951-
56
1956-
61
1961-
66
1969-
74
1974-
78
1980-
85
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90
1992-
97
ElasticityofGenerationvsGDP
Review of State Electricity Boards

7. Electric Power Requirements
Generation(billionkWh)
Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Key GDP Growth Rate
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:
Installed Capacity 250 GW
Generation 1500 billion kWh
Per Capita Consumption 1000 kWh
CapacityNeeded(GW)
Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Key GDP Growth Rate
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1

8. The Task Ahead
• Need to add 135 GW in ten years
– 13,500 MW required per annum
– ~ One power plant per month
– China adds one per week !!
– Maximum added till now is
4,600 MW (One in four months)
0
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15000
20000
25000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
AnnualCapacityAddition(MW)
Annual added capacity
Total Capacity addition required

9. Fuel Supply: Options for Future
• Coal
– Conventional
– Gasification
• Natural Gas
• Hydro
• Nuclear
– PHWR + FB + AHWR
– PLWR
• Wind
– On-shore
– Off-shore
• Biomass
• Solar
– Photo voltaic
– Concentrating Solar Power
Fuel Present In 2015
Coal 67,166 MW ?
Gas 11,840 MW ?
Hydro 30,135 MW ?
Nuclear 2,720 MW ?
Wind 2,488 MW ?
Biomass 1,000 MW ?
Solar - ?
TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW

10. King Coal !
• Reserves
– Proven 91 billion Tons
– Indicated 116 billion Tons
– Inferred 37 billion Tons
– TOTAL 245 billion Tons
• Coal reserves: > 250 years at present
levels of consumption
• Concentrated in Eastern India
Madhya
Pradesh
7%
Others
13%
Jharkhand
29%
Chattisgarh
16%
West Bengal
11%
Orissa
24%

11. Indian Coal Quality
• High ash: 25%-45%
• Low sulfur < 0.5%
• Low energy content
• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh
• Issues with coal:
– Ash disposal: annual ash
generation > 90 million tons
– CO2 emissions
Heating
Value
(BTU/lb)
Ash
Content
(%)
Sulfur
(%)
Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25
Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40
WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61
Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5

12. Coal: Future Scenarios
• Projections of coal demand (2015):
– High growth : 580 MT
– BAU scenario : 380 MT
– Domestic production will not be
enough. Imports needed
• Issues:
– Ash generation > 200 million Tons
– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons
– Particulate and NOx emissions
(presently not regulated)
– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail
transportation stagnation
0
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2014
2015
2016
CoalRequirementinPowerSector(MillionTons)
Coal Transport by Railways
Business as Usual
Accelerated growth scenario

13. India’s CO2 Emissions
• India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in
2003:
– Coal 666 MMT
– Petroleum 305 MMT
– Natural Gas 53 MMT
• India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing
– Trebled during 1981-2001
• India and China presently not subject to
mandatory cuts in CO2
– However future may not be so
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ShareofGlobalCO2Emissions(%)
US
Western Europe
China
India
EIA, US Department of Energy
India China Total
1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%
2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%
Share of global emissions

14. Options with Coal
• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue.
– Availability
– Cheap
• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints
of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.
Installed Capacity
of Coal (GW)
Coal Required
(Million MT)
CO2 Emissions
(Million MT)
Upper Case Coal still
contributes 60%
of capacity
~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT
Lower Case Aggressive
deployment of
nuclear and
natural gas
technologies
~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT
Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%

15. Hydro-Electricity
• Inferred potential > 120 GW
• Installed capacity 30 GW
• Most big projects are in North-
Eastern states of Arunachal
Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and
J&K
• Problems of rehabilitation and
resettlement with large projects
• Environmental issues
• Water sharing agreements with
neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India

16. Hydro-Electric Potential
State Capacity
(MW)
Dulhasti J&K 390
Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140
Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510
Loktak Downstream Manipur 90
Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800
Sewa-II J&K 120
Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000
Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132
Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520
TOTAL 4702
Details of projects under construction
Projects awaiting
clearance and
government approval
2,570 MW
Projects at DPR and
infrastructure
development stage
11,620 MW
Projects under survey
and investigation
11,000 MW
Ongoing and Planned Projects
Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015

17. Natural Gas
• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide
• Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/year
Primary uses:
Power 41%
Fertilizer 32%
Sponge Iron 4%
Other 23%
Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)
Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on
price, of course)

18. Natural Gas
Pipelines
Indore
- onwards
to India
TAPS
TAPS
(across water)
CENTGAS
- to Pakistan
Indore
Baroda
333333333
KarachiGwadar
222222222
444444444
Gas supplyConsumption
center
New Delhi
Multan
1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar
111111111
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
Qatar
India
Oman
Gas Authority of India Limited
India’s Gas Pipelines
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)

19. Imports of Gas
• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices
remain high
– 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power
– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power
thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power
• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity
– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses
as well
• More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas
• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies

20. Biomass
• India predominantly agricultural
country.
• Annual production of agro-forest and
processing residues: 350 million tons
• Power generation potential > 22,000
MW
• Advantages:
– Decentralized generation: close to
rural load centers.
– Technology reasonably well
developed
– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2
emissions
Feedstock Examples Potential Installed
Agro-forest
residues
Wood chips,
mulberry,
coconut
shells
17,000 MW 50 MW
Processing
residues
Rice husk,
sugarcane
bagasse
5,000 MW 1000 MW

21. Biomass Conversion Technologies
• Gasifier-reciprocating engine
– Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible
– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for
ignition
• Cost of electricity is high
– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas
– Overall efficiency ~ 20%
– Largest gasifier 100 kW
• Fluidized bed combustion boilers
– Rice husk and bagasse
– 25%-30%
– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in
various sugar mills
– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!
50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka

22. Biomass for Decentralized Rural
Power
• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW
– ~ 75% is irrigation pumps
– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few
hours a day
• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW
– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust
• Cost of generation reasonable
– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh
• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:
– Economics unviable due to low PLF
– People not willing to pay when state gives free !
– Loss of organic fertilizer on land
• Good potential from bagasse and husk:
– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.

23. Wind Energy
• Gross potential : 45,000 MW
(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)
• Technical potential : 13,000 MW
(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)
• Rapid growth in installed capacity
from 1990s
• India ranks 5th
in the world
– Present installed capacity ~ 3000
MW
• Site selection issues:
– More from fiscal benefits than from
power
– Many plants not operating
– Low average load factor~13%
0
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10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Germany
Spain
US
Denmark
India
Italy
Netherlands
UK
Japan
China
InstalledCapacity(MW)
Global Wind Energy Council
World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)

24. Wind Speed Maps of Selected
Countries
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2)
in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2)
and US US

25. Off-shore Wind in Europe
• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.
• Wind speeds higher
• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !
Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance
from Shore
(km)
Remarks
Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed
UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed
Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed
Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed
Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed
Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned
Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned
Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned
Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly
complete

26. India: Off Shore Wind Scenario
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D is t a n c e ( K m )
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D is t a n c e ( K m )
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Distance(Km)
B a t h y m e t r y o f In d ia n S e a s
D e p t h ( m e t r e s )

27. Nuclear Power: The Present Status
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1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015
InstalledCapacity(MW)
Planned
Presently installed

28. Indian Nuclear Program: The Present
Status
• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation
• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission
• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under
commission
• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test
Reactor (FBTR)
• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for
500MWe under construction
• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using
(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of
design approval; construction soon to begin.

29. Indian Nuclear Program: The
Constraints
• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40
years
• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global
technologies, materials or services
• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000
MWe annually
• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel
• Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited

30. Why Cooperate?
• India needs electric power now, more than
ever, for human development and growth
• It must generate power from all energy
sources
• Excessive and continued dependence on
coal contributes to environmental
degradation & global warming
• Limitations of renewable energy sources

31. Why Cooperate?
• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power &
Responsibility
• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration
• Bilateral trade & economic issues
• Sharing global energy resources
• Environmental concerns
• Shared vision: secular, democratic &
caring society

32. Why Cooperate?
Climate change is a greater threat to
humanity than terrorism, and no less
urgent.
---David King, Science Advisor to Prime
Minister of UK

33. An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen
technologies mature
• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation;
Development of Energy Plan
• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10
years)
• Investments in R&D to make renewable
technologies efficient, sustainable
&affordable

34. An Action Plan
• Strict enforcement of export controls of
technologies, equipment and services
• Nuclear power reactors under international
safeguards
• Collaboration in developing technologies
for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power
generation
• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives

35. Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Coal
60.44%
Gas
14.49%
Diesel
0.48%
Nuclear
5.06%
Hydro
15.96%
Solar thermal
0.40%
Biomass
1.19%
Wind
1.99%
Gas
14.49%
Diesel
0.48%
Nuclear
14.60%
Hydro
15.96%
Solar thermal
0.40%
Biomass
1.19%
Wind
1.99%
Coal
50.90%
Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition
• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons
• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons
• ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !

36. Primary energy consumption per
capita

37. What If….
India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?
• Expected Carbon Emission:
14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times
present global emissions !!)
• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm
• Temperature rise > 0.5 C
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
OECD India China Others
2002
2013
Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)
US > 14,000
India 600
China 1300
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)
Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013
(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

38. What If
India & China Guzzle Oil?
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India China US Other
OECD
Others
MillionBarrelsperDay
2003
2013
Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)
US > 750
India 4
China 8
Present Number of Cars per 1000
• World Oil Consumption: 387
Million Barrels a Day
• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day
• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!
• At Present 42 years
Target: 250 Cars per 1000

39. I saw God In the smile of the poor
Mahatma Gandhi

40. The cost of Power
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7
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Plant Capacity (kW)
CostofGeneration
(RsperkWh)
Utility's Cost of Supply
Residential Tariff
Irrigation Tariff