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Dealing with complexity and uncertainty
   In natural resource management
 And other wicked problems’ initiatives
                 Ewen Le Borgne

     EAU4Food LPA-CoP facilitation training workshop
               ILRI Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
                   13-15 August 2012
Overview


1. Development (research) is mostly about
   complexity… What is complexity?
2. What does development (research) too often
   look like in comparison?
3. What are the implications of complexity for the
   way we work? How to work around complexity?
1. Development (research) is mostly about
                complexity




  Credits: Michael Heiss
                           …What is complexity?
1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity

Complex issues…
   •   Natural resource management,
   •   Climate change,
   •   Poverty,
   •   Service delivery,
   •   Social change…
   •   …are all complex…
   •   …they relate to…

…wicked problems
                                      Credits: Julian Burton
1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
          What is a wicked problem?

 A problem that is difficult or impossible to solve
 because of incomplete, contradictory, and
 changing requirements that are often difficult to
 recognize. The term ‘wicked’ is used, not in the
 sense of evil, but rather its resistant to resolution.
  Moreover, because of complex interdependencies,
 the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem
 may reveal or create other problems.
1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
         Characteristics of a wicked problem?

 Highly integrated                      Difficult or
                                        impossible to
                                        solve

                  Evolving over time
 Going through
 occasional                            Rooted in local &
 abrupt changes                        global contexts
1. Development (research) is mostly about
   complexity – what is complexity?
                                    Inter-
                                    dependency




Credits: Harold Jarche
1. Development (research) is mostly about
    complexity – what is complexity?

                          Fractals /
                          patterns




Credits: Jakyakody200lk
1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity – what is complexity?
                                   Unpredictability
Complex adaptive
systems
“Systems that have a
large numbers of
components, often called
agents, that interact and
adapt or learn.”                                 Credits: Trojan Mice




      Feedback loops                 Self-organization
                       Emergence
3. What does development (research) too
     often look like in comparison?
3. What does development (research) too
   often look like in comparison?
                       Obsessed with silver bullets
      Short lived
                                                  Obsessed with
                              Imposed from        scaling up
                              outside

  Monitored blindly                      Centralized &
                                         heavily
                                         bureaucratic
                           Obsessed with change
Disconnected
from realities                  Uninspired (not our vision)
Credits: Howard Lake
3. What does development (research) too
often look like in comparison?

         Not prepared for change!!!
        Not prepared for complexity!
4. What are the implications of complexity
          for the way we work?
What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?

Plan with uncertainty
• Check your assumptions
What are the implications of complexity for
 the way we work?
Understand
the bigger
picture




 Credits: InfoNet
What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?

   Drive by shared vision and co-creation
   • Visualize that wicked problem
   •Motivate people around that bigger picture
   •Connect forces and capacities
   •Co-create an agenda for action
   •Carry out joint activities
   •Let people self-organise



                     Empower!!!
Credits: ILRI
What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?



         Know your network
         • Institutions


         •Individuals


         •Interdependencies
What are the implications of complexity for
  the way we work?




Embed your
work in the
context                              Credits: Strawberry Sue



              •
What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?

                         Know how to respond
                         •To simple, complicated,
                         complex and chaotic
                         problems and issues…
What are the implications of complexity for
  the way we work?

      Document and reflect!




Credits: Adam Cohn
What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?

   Connect all the nodes to the main grid
   •Become the complex adaptive system




Credits: ILRI
What are the implications of complexity for
    the way we work?
Multi-stakeholder processes can be great for this
•Recognising multiple knowledges
•Their contributions
•Their capacities
•Their needs
•Their biases




 Credits: Valerie Brown
What are the implications of complexity for
   the way we work?



        But they
        have to
        work as
        one
        collective


Credits: Valerie Brown
More information

          http://www.eau4food.info
            e.leborgne@cgiar.org




The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
Better lives through livestock




           ilri.org

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Dealing with complexity in development (research) projects

  • 1. Dealing with complexity and uncertainty In natural resource management And other wicked problems’ initiatives Ewen Le Borgne EAU4Food LPA-CoP facilitation training workshop ILRI Ethiopia, Addis Ababa 13-15 August 2012
  • 2. Overview 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity… What is complexity? 2. What does development (research) too often look like in comparison? 3. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? How to work around complexity?
  • 3. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity Credits: Michael Heiss …What is complexity?
  • 4. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity Complex issues… • Natural resource management, • Climate change, • Poverty, • Service delivery, • Social change… • …are all complex… • …they relate to… …wicked problems Credits: Julian Burton
  • 5. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity What is a wicked problem? A problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. The term ‘wicked’ is used, not in the sense of evil, but rather its resistant to resolution. Moreover, because of complex interdependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems.
  • 6. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity Characteristics of a wicked problem? Highly integrated Difficult or impossible to solve Evolving over time Going through occasional Rooted in local & abrupt changes global contexts
  • 7. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity – what is complexity? Inter- dependency Credits: Harold Jarche
  • 8. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity – what is complexity? Fractals / patterns Credits: Jakyakody200lk
  • 9. 1. Development (research) is mostly about complexity – what is complexity? Unpredictability Complex adaptive systems “Systems that have a large numbers of components, often called agents, that interact and adapt or learn.” Credits: Trojan Mice Feedback loops Self-organization Emergence
  • 10. 3. What does development (research) too often look like in comparison?
  • 11. 3. What does development (research) too often look like in comparison? Obsessed with silver bullets Short lived Obsessed with Imposed from scaling up outside Monitored blindly Centralized & heavily bureaucratic Obsessed with change Disconnected from realities Uninspired (not our vision) Credits: Howard Lake
  • 12. 3. What does development (research) too often look like in comparison? Not prepared for change!!! Not prepared for complexity!
  • 13. 4. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work?
  • 14. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Plan with uncertainty • Check your assumptions
  • 15. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Understand the bigger picture Credits: InfoNet
  • 16. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Drive by shared vision and co-creation • Visualize that wicked problem •Motivate people around that bigger picture •Connect forces and capacities •Co-create an agenda for action •Carry out joint activities •Let people self-organise Empower!!! Credits: ILRI
  • 17. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Know your network • Institutions •Individuals •Interdependencies
  • 18. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Embed your work in the context Credits: Strawberry Sue •
  • 19. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Know how to respond •To simple, complicated, complex and chaotic problems and issues…
  • 20. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Document and reflect! Credits: Adam Cohn
  • 21. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Connect all the nodes to the main grid •Become the complex adaptive system Credits: ILRI
  • 22. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? Multi-stakeholder processes can be great for this •Recognising multiple knowledges •Their contributions •Their capacities •Their needs •Their biases Credits: Valerie Brown
  • 23. What are the implications of complexity for the way we work? But they have to work as one collective Credits: Valerie Brown
  • 24. More information http://www.eau4food.info e.leborgne@cgiar.org The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
  • 25. Better lives through livestock ilri.org