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Baltics Growth reporter q2 2010
1.
Q2’2010
10/08/2010
2.
Introduction This report: • Compares
overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe. • Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market. • Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels • Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels • Reports on the 2nd quarter of 2010 – Week 15, 2010 till week 27, 2010 • NB: Turkey data was reworked for Q1 2010 – Cigarettes were removed from calculation because of distorting effect Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
3.
Executive Summary
A poor Q2 in terms of volume growth rates, confirms the very slow healing of consumer confidence • In 2009 the Easter weekend was part of Q2, this year Easter was part of Q1 sales – The shift in sales of this top weekend penalized the Q2 growth rates • Beyond this calendar technicality it’s the first time European value growth falls short of +1% since debut of the Growth Reporter in 2007 – Steep drop in Norway despite highest Consumer Confidence in Europe – Germany and Italy are holding down the European number • Greek / Euro crisis becomes visible in FMCG Spending • Inflation is still under the 1% level – Deflation exceeds -6% in Finland and close to -3% in Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland – Price increase surge back to +2.7% in the UK and +3% in Turkey • Volume growth rates were lower than Q1 in 15 of the 21 markets – Hungary, the Czech rep and Switzerland are the exceptions • Consumer remains doubtful on recovery – Consumer confidence rebuilding is slow • The East – West divide remains in place. – Rampant inflation in Albania, Bosnia and Ukraine – Falling volumes in Bulgaria, Baltics, Romania and Russia Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
4.
Europe overview (*)
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics (*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK. Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
5.
Latest volume trend
overview Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
6.
Q2 2010 growth
rates per country (versus Q2 2009) Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
7.
Europe Big 5
summary Germany France UK Italy Spain Nielsen Market Index Volume* Nielsen Market Index Value** Are consumers shopping more frequently? Are consumers spending more per trip? Are shoppers shifting to value channels? Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence index 81 7 63 5 78 2 71 4 69 10 *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as € , £ change vs. YAGO Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Neutral: between -1 and +1% Very Negative: < -4% Growth: between +1 and + 4% Negative: between -1 and -4% •Nielsen Economic Current Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
8.
DETAILS BY COUNTRY
Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
9.
Austria
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
10.
Belgium
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
11.
Czech Republic Fast
Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
12.
Denmark
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
13.
Finland
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
14.
France
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
15.
Germany
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
16.
Greece
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
17.
Hungary
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
18.
Ireland
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
19.
Italy
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
20.
Netherlands Fast Moving
Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
21.
Norway
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
22.
Poland
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
23.
Portugal
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
24.
Slovakia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
25.
Spain
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
26.
Sweden
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
27.
Switzerland Fast Moving
Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
28.
Turkey
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Cigarettes sales excluded onwards 2010. Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
29.
UK
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
30.
Extended countries
Albania Lithuania Bosnia Macedonia Bulgaria Romenia Croatia Russia Estonia Serbia Israel Slovenia Latvia Ukraine • Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles • Categories covered in food and drug channels Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
31.
Albania
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
32.
Bosnia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
33.
Bulgaria
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
34.
Croatia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
35.
Estonia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
36.
Israel
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
37.
Latvia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
38.
Lithuania
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
39.
Macedonia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
40.
Romania
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
41.
Russia Fast Moving Consumer
Goods Market Dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
42.
Serbia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
43.
Slovenia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
44.
Ukraine
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
45.
Glossary • Nominal value
growth: – Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories • Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change): – Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories – The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc) – The change in average price per unit may result from: – Price changes of individual products – Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc. – Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc. – Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics. – The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behaviour. • Volume growth: – Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products • The three components are related: – ValueGrowth = UnitValueGrowth * VolumeGrowth See attachment for calculation rules Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company
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