EuFMD
OS22 VADEMOS: Applications of
vaccine demand estimation tool
for managing FAST diseases
S. Watson, H. Lee, T. Knight-Jones, P. Rius Muñoz,
R. Condoleo, F. Rosso, N. Lyon, C. Miller, P. Motta,
P. Compston, B. Vosough Ahmadi

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
• Vaccination is an essential component
of any FAST disease control
programme in endemic contexts
• A gap exists between the amount of
vaccine required for these control
programmes and the amount
manufactured and accessible
• Organisations responsible for FAST
diseases control, need to understand
the size of this gap at national and
regional levels in order to be able to
justify necessary investments
FMD vaccine dose numbers aggregated from WOAH
WAHIS, population values taken from FAOSTAT both for
2020
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Cattle (Africa)
Cattle (Asia)
Small ruminants (Africa)
Small ruminants (Asia)
Pigs (Africa)
Pigs (Asia)
Vaccine doses Total population
Introduction

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
• To bridge the information gap
between FMD vaccine demand for
effective control and vaccine
production/supply in endemic settings
at national and regional levels.
• To provide a decision-support tool to
enhance national control plans.
Image by: freepik.com
Objectives

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
VADEMOS
Vaccine Demand Estimation Models - FMD
VADEMOS - FMD is a decision-support tool intended to be used to estimate current and
future vaccine dose demand for Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) at a national and regional
level.
It is a stochastic quantitative model which uses predictors of vaccine dose demand such as
livestock population forecast, disease control policy related to projected stage of the
Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) for FMD, vaccination schedule and outbreak
forecasting.
The WOAH WAHIS and FAOSTAT databases, as well as country-specific data
on current FMD outbreaks, livestock population and density were used along with
expert opinion sought to determine the extent of vaccine coverage, as well as the
change in number of outbreaks for each PCP-FMD stage.
4

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
5
VIDEO
A web-based format with an
interactive interface allows the
user to modify parameters and
therefore run simulations for
“ad-hoc” scenarios.

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
6
Expected number of doses for FMD by:
● Geographic area: Country, subregion and continent level
● Type of vaccination: Prophylactic, emergency and total
● Species: Large ruminants, small ruminants, pigs
● Time horizon: 10-year period predictions
● Sector: Dairy, beef, smallholders
What outputs does VADEMOS provide?

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
7
Results: table format

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
8
Results: distribution

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
9
Results: per species

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
Country level estimation
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Ratio (estimated doses/used doses)
Country VADEMOS Difference Ratio
Country 1 4,554,001 - 13,036,451 0.3
Country 1 4,554,001 - 11,895,999 0.3
Country 2 6,347,515 - 4,534,993 0.6
Country 2 6,347,515 - 4,408,261 0.6
Country 3 1,176,523 - 345,993 0.8
Country 4 600,081 - 44,319 0.9
Country 3 1,176,523 63,695 1.1
Country 5 3,713,251 422,438 1.1
Country 6 352,460 128,958 1.6
Country 7 404,919 194,899 1.9
Country 8 15,955,700 8,433,935 2.1
Country 8 15,955,700 10,313,323 2.8
Country 9 1,875,719 1,249,595 3.0
Country 10 180,998 138,026 4.2
Country 10 180,998 160,998 9.0
Country 6 352,460 317,862 10.2
Countyry 11 115,078 108,597 17.8
Country 12 239,958 229,390 22.7

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
Regional level estimation
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Year Area PCP Prophylactic Emergency Total CI low CI up
2022 Middle East 2 43,755,985 213,634 44,074,113 44,014,585 44,130,406
2022 South Asia 2 549,555,931 1,807,895 551,547,521 550,838,825 552,656,713
2022 West Eurasia 2 274,498,319 1554,904 276,389,094 274,997,221 277,428,840
2022 Central Africa 1 44,297,249 86,754 44,444,800 44,351,321 44,539,739
2022 East Africa 1 176,513,207 605,099 177,241,880 176,567,161 177,868,294
2022 South Africa 2 96,482,909 558,086 97,193,652 97,074,796 97,419,900
2022 West Africa 1 101,902,402 30,032 101,942,254 1,011,917,420 101,967,004
TOTAL 1,287,006,002 4,856,404 1,292,833,314 1,289,761,329 1,296,010,896

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
Areas for improvement
A comparison is difficult due to information available
about vaccine used in reality
○ Scarce availability of official data
○ Missing or inaccurate data from authorities
○ Vaccination scheme/strategy not clear
Some VADEMOS parameters have some inherent
uncertainties:
○ Population growth and density has to be refined
○ Vaccination coverage of animal populations by year
○ Outbreak data are scarce
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+ Good prediction for some
countries and numbers are
always within the calculated
credible intervals
- Most Probable (MP)
predictions in some cases
are overestimated, and
Confidence Intervals are
still large

#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
Conclusions
● Overall, VADEMOS provides good level of accuracy for a large proportion of countries with
endemic FMD
● It provides aggregated numbers of vaccine doses at regional and subregional levels, over a
specified time horizon, which could assist business investment decisions by manufacturers
● VADEMOS will continue to improve its ability to estimate accurate number of vaccine
doses as it is validated and refined
● VADEMOS is ready to be used as a decision-support tool by countries in endemic settings
(e.g., before, during & after roadmap meetings). This will enable a dynamic validation
process at national and regional levels
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#OS22
Digitalization and innovation applied to the prevention and control of
foot-and-mouth and similar transboundary animal diseases (FAST) OS22
Bouda Vosough Ahmadi
VADEMOS: Applications of vaccine demand estimation tool
Acknowledgments
● Co-authors, many former and current colleagues and experts in EuFMD, FAO, WOAH and
other linked institutes
● Colleagues in public veterinary services of countries, and colleagues from private sectors
involved in validation process of the tool
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Thank you !..
www.eufmd.info/vademos
Bouda.Ahmadi@fao.org