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Melissa McLaws
Joao Afonso
Socheat Sieng
Chris Bartels
ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF
INCURSION OF EXOTIC FMD VIRUSES
INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA
This presentation
In REFERENCE to this meeting
discuss the consequences for vaccine demand and supply to meet the changing
environment (export, PCP-programmes)
REASON
SEACFMD meeting (2016) concluded it needed to understand and mitigate risks of incursion of exotic
FMD viruses present in other FMD-endemic regions of the world.
RESULT
Risk assessment of incursions of
exotic FMD strains into SE Asia
3. Spread/consequence
2. Exposure
1.Release
1. Risk assessment principles
South-East AsiaOutside
Qualitative assessment
• Country visits
• Data collection
• Risk-assessment workshop
Bangkok
Risk pathways
Import livestock legal
Import livestock informal
Import animal (by-)products legal
Import animal (by-)products informal
Wildlife
Communal grazing
Human movements
Feed/fodder
Vehicle
Genetic materials
2. Risk pathways for Release and Exposure
Release through livestock and
animal (by-)products
Information on
livestock trade
between SE
Asia and China
Price differential between
production and consumption
Myanmar
1.1USD/kgLW sold
2.0USD/kgLW bought
Thailand
2.5USD/kgLW paid for
at Mae Sot (border)
Thailand central
3.1USD/kgLW paid for
by exporter
Lao PDR/China border
3.2USD/kgLW paid for
by Lao/Chines trader
Lao PDR
3.5USD/kgLW paid for
In Vientiane market
China
3.6USD/kgLW paid for
In border area
Vietnam
4.1USD/kgLW paid for
Thai cattle, fattened
and transported to Lao
PDR/Vientiane border
3.4 USD/kgLW paid for
imported
Australian cattle
Australia
1.8USD/kgLW paid for
in Queensland
Probability of occurrence
Scenarios for consequence
Assessment of Veterinary Services –
based on OIE-PVS evaluation
Overall consequence assessment
Release assessment Exposure assessment
Consequence
assessment
Risk estimation
In short: when a new FMD virus/strain is introduced, there is
a high risk for it to spread because of the limited capacity and
resources to early detect and quickly respond
Probability of
occurrence
Vaccine use (2016/2017)
presented by national representatives
at the 23rd SEACFMD Sub-Commission Meeting, 9-10 March 2017, Siem Reap, Cambodia).
Country Cattle/buffalo
population*
Vaccine doses Serotype Coverage Notes
Cambodia 2.9 m cattle
0.5 m buffalo
164,000
Lao PDR 1.9 m buffalo
1.2 m buffalo
190,000
Myanmar 9.7 m cattle
2.4 m buffalo
2016: 300,000
2017: 600,000
2016: O
2017: O and A
STANDZ Australian support, in
hotspots and high risk areas in
central Myanmar
Malaysia 0.8 m cattle
0.1 m buffalo
300,000 65% in
hotspots
Thailand 5.5 m cattle
0.9 m buffalo
? 90% 2x/year in beef, 3x in dairy cattle
Vietnam 5.5 m cattle
2.5 m buffalo
1.5 million
doses
1.9 million
O
O and A
In control zones along border with
Cambodia and Lao PDR
*FAOSTATS year 2016
Recommendations
Overarching
regional
Continuous
monitoring of FMD
virus
Coordinate a regional
vaccine stock
Overarching
national
Progressive FMD
control including risk-
based vaccination
Develop contingency
plans
Risk analysis for
livestock products
Understand and
strengthen passive
surveillance
Livestock
regional
Legalize livestock
trade between
countries and China
Monitor livestock
movements
Cost-effective active
surveillance
Livestock
national
Private sector
initiatives to increase
vaccination coverage
CAHWs as focal
persons
Melissa McLaws:
Recommendations
Regional vaccine
stock
On the agenda for
the region
PRAGMATIST may be
helpful
• Disintegrate Pool
• Vaccine coverage
and risk-mapping
Legalize livestock
trade between
countries and China
Negotiations between
China and Myanmar
Negotiations between
China and Lao PDR
Requirements for
‘FMD free status’.
Include vaccination
and testing
Private sector
initiatives to
increase vaccination
coverage
From project-based
to market driven
vaccination
Allow private sector
to apply FMD
vaccination
Role of VS is to register
and evaluate quality
vaccine
Community Animal
Health Workers
(VAHWs, VVWs)
Vaccination, sampling
and outbreak
response
Surveillance (early
detection, monthly
reporting)
Accreditation
Thank you for your attention

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  • 1. Melissa McLaws Joao Afonso Socheat Sieng Chris Bartels ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF INCURSION OF EXOTIC FMD VIRUSES INTO SOUTHEAST ASIA
  • 2. This presentation In REFERENCE to this meeting discuss the consequences for vaccine demand and supply to meet the changing environment (export, PCP-programmes) REASON SEACFMD meeting (2016) concluded it needed to understand and mitigate risks of incursion of exotic FMD viruses present in other FMD-endemic regions of the world. RESULT
  • 3. Risk assessment of incursions of exotic FMD strains into SE Asia 3. Spread/consequence 2. Exposure 1.Release 1. Risk assessment principles South-East AsiaOutside
  • 4. Qualitative assessment • Country visits • Data collection • Risk-assessment workshop Bangkok
  • 5. Risk pathways Import livestock legal Import livestock informal Import animal (by-)products legal Import animal (by-)products informal Wildlife Communal grazing Human movements Feed/fodder Vehicle Genetic materials 2. Risk pathways for Release and Exposure
  • 6.
  • 7. Release through livestock and animal (by-)products
  • 9. Price differential between production and consumption Myanmar 1.1USD/kgLW sold 2.0USD/kgLW bought Thailand 2.5USD/kgLW paid for at Mae Sot (border) Thailand central 3.1USD/kgLW paid for by exporter Lao PDR/China border 3.2USD/kgLW paid for by Lao/Chines trader Lao PDR 3.5USD/kgLW paid for In Vientiane market China 3.6USD/kgLW paid for In border area Vietnam 4.1USD/kgLW paid for Thai cattle, fattened and transported to Lao PDR/Vientiane border 3.4 USD/kgLW paid for imported Australian cattle Australia 1.8USD/kgLW paid for in Queensland
  • 12. Assessment of Veterinary Services – based on OIE-PVS evaluation
  • 14. Release assessment Exposure assessment Consequence assessment Risk estimation In short: when a new FMD virus/strain is introduced, there is a high risk for it to spread because of the limited capacity and resources to early detect and quickly respond Probability of occurrence
  • 15. Vaccine use (2016/2017) presented by national representatives at the 23rd SEACFMD Sub-Commission Meeting, 9-10 March 2017, Siem Reap, Cambodia). Country Cattle/buffalo population* Vaccine doses Serotype Coverage Notes Cambodia 2.9 m cattle 0.5 m buffalo 164,000 Lao PDR 1.9 m buffalo 1.2 m buffalo 190,000 Myanmar 9.7 m cattle 2.4 m buffalo 2016: 300,000 2017: 600,000 2016: O 2017: O and A STANDZ Australian support, in hotspots and high risk areas in central Myanmar Malaysia 0.8 m cattle 0.1 m buffalo 300,000 65% in hotspots Thailand 5.5 m cattle 0.9 m buffalo ? 90% 2x/year in beef, 3x in dairy cattle Vietnam 5.5 m cattle 2.5 m buffalo 1.5 million doses 1.9 million O O and A In control zones along border with Cambodia and Lao PDR *FAOSTATS year 2016
  • 16. Recommendations Overarching regional Continuous monitoring of FMD virus Coordinate a regional vaccine stock Overarching national Progressive FMD control including risk- based vaccination Develop contingency plans Risk analysis for livestock products Understand and strengthen passive surveillance Livestock regional Legalize livestock trade between countries and China Monitor livestock movements Cost-effective active surveillance Livestock national Private sector initiatives to increase vaccination coverage CAHWs as focal persons Melissa McLaws:
  • 17. Recommendations Regional vaccine stock On the agenda for the region PRAGMATIST may be helpful • Disintegrate Pool • Vaccine coverage and risk-mapping Legalize livestock trade between countries and China Negotiations between China and Myanmar Negotiations between China and Lao PDR Requirements for ‘FMD free status’. Include vaccination and testing Private sector initiatives to increase vaccination coverage From project-based to market driven vaccination Allow private sector to apply FMD vaccination Role of VS is to register and evaluate quality vaccine Community Animal Health Workers (VAHWs, VVWs) Vaccination, sampling and outbreak response Surveillance (early detection, monthly reporting) Accreditation
  • 18. Thank you for your attention