Third Industrial Revolution Sept 2014
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The document discusses trends related to the third industrial revolution including collaborative innovation, the sharing economy, cryptocurrencies, crowdfunding, and distributed manufacturing. It notes that these trends are challenging traditional institutions and models of value creation as knowledge becomes more distributed through open networks and platforms. Organizations will need to both explore new collaborative models and exploit opportunities in these emerging areas to remain competitive in the future.
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Third Industrial Revolution Sept 2014
- 2. Who am I? (LinkedIn Inmaps) Swedish Industry SSE Exec Ed Research Wharton Stanford McKinsey vonorange.com
- 3. Leading into the third industrial revolution Part I Background Part II Collaborative Innovation Part III The Sharing Economy
- 4. Then… Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 5. …Now Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 6. “Old” Film from 2008 Did You Know: Shift Happens http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY&feature=search 1. What trends do you recognize? 2. How are these trends affecting you and your organization? 3. What leadership challenges do these trends lead to?
- 8. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Microelectronics Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
- 9. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Knowledge via MOOCs • Sharing not consuming • Sustainability Technology • Broadband access • The Cloud • Mobile phones • Internet of Things • Big Data • 3D printing • Robotics/AI • VR/AR Open Source • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P • Non-fiat cryptocurrencies • Mobile money/payments
- 10. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
- 11. Increasing pace of change From 1920s to 2010s − Average lifespan of S&P 500 company fell from 67 years to 15 years From 2000 to 2010 − 40% of companies on Fortune 500 list replaced Predictions − In next few years, 70% of Fortune 1000 companies to be replaced − By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 companies do not exist today − By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 companies to be from emerging markets Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
- 12. ”Bitcoin has made me interested in issues like finance and money – things that I never thought about before. Now I am really curious and questioning why things are the way they are in the finance world….and wondering what can I do to change them.” - Bitcoin 2014 Conference Attendee
- 13. The genie is out of the bottle….
- 14. In just a few years in Sweden alone… Company Founded Business Klarna 2005 E-commerce payment services MyLoan 2006 Loan broker Trustly 2008 Online payments TrustBuddy 2009 P2P lending iZettle 2010 Mobile payments FundedByMe 2011 Crowdfunding, crowd equity Kivra 2011 Digital mailbox Tink 2012 Personal finance Safello 2013 Cryptocurrency exchange KnCMiner 2013 Cryptocurrency mining equipment Toborrow 2013 P2P lending for companies
- 15. Banks’ share of wallet is rapidly shrinking International Entrepreneurs Nordic Entrepreneurs Nordic Banks Pay, Save, Lend, Insure
- 16. What is Crowdfunding? Accumulation of small investments in individual projects by large number of individuals (the “crowd”) via or with help of Internet and social networks (De Buysere et al., 2012) Picture: FundedByMe
- 17. Four forms of crowdfunding Form Benefits for funders Donation-based Donation Intangible benefits. Reward-based Donation or pre-purchase Rewards in addition to intangible benefits. Equity-based Investment Return on investment if company does well. Rewards sometimes also offered and intangible benefits may motivate too. Debt-based Loan Repayment of loan with interest. Alternatively intangible benefits if loan given interest-free. Ingram & Teigland 2013
- 18. Local Stockholm success story: Flippin’ Burgers Money raised: SEK 36,502 / €4,000 Number of investors: 186 Date funded: September 2011 Sector: Food
- 19. Enabling local, small-scale solutions http://travel.cnn.com/best-americana-restaurants-europe-023346
- 20. Crowd equity taking off
- 21. P2P lending in the US and UK… • USD 3.8 bln in personal loans since 2007 • USD 750 mln growth each quarter • Now offering business loans • Strategic alliance with Union Bank
- 22. Toborrow.se
- 23. Democratizing innovation through access to capital Kickstarter • Women 13% more likely to to meet crowdfunding goals than men • 67% of women-led technology ventures reached goals vs 30% of male-led ventures Indiegogo • Women 61% more likely than men to meet goals • Women account for 41% of projects that meet goals http://online.wsj.com/articles/kickstarter-closes-the-funding-gap-for-women-1407949759
- 24. Bitcoin = The power of community + open source + internet + CPU • Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of “strangers” across globe • Not one but many motivations (intrinsic, extrinsic) • 91 bln SEK in circulation vs SEK 44 bln of Bitcoin in five years • Approx USD 6.2 bln in circulation (Sept 2014) and 70,000 daily transactions http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707
- 26. Bitcoin – one of many cryptocurrencies Currency Code Year Est. Founder(s) Active Website PoW PoS Bitcoin BTC or XBT 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto (pseudonym) Yes N/A Yes No Ripple XRP 2013 Chris Larsen & Jed McCaleb Yes ripple.com No No Litecoin LTC 2011 Charles Lee Yes litecoin.org Yes No Peercoin PPC 2012 Sunny King (pseudonym) Yes peercoin.net Yes Yes Dogecoin DOGE 2013 Jackson Palmer & Billy Markus Yes dogecoin.co m Yes No Namecoin NMC 2011 N/A Yes dot-bit.org Yes No Mastercoin MSC 2013 J. R. Willett Yes mastercoin.or g No No Primecoin XPM 2013 Sunny King (pseudonym) Yes primecoin.or g Yes No
- 27. Rise of local currencies
- 28. The future? Facebook + banking license?
- 29. The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed. - William Gibson
- 30. Leading into the third industrial revolution Part I Background Part II Collaborative Innovation Part III The Sharing Economy
- 31. Many are stuck in our old ways …
- 32. No one knows everything, everyone knows something, all knowledge resides in nheutmwaonrkitsy.. Six degrees of separation - Milgram, 1967 Adapted from Lévy 1997
- 33. 105 emp 350+ Partners 43,900+ Community members 15,000+ Customers in 130 countries • Content management software, #1 in media industry • 250,000 sites in 170 countries • Customers: UN, FT, WSJ, Vogue, Hitachi, 3M, BMW • 105 employees in 9 countries (US, Europe & Asia) Teigland et al., 2014 forthcoming
- 34. eZ’s platform for building identity and competence throughout its ecosystem eZ Software development team
- 35. Where have the traditional sources of sustainable competitive advantage been? FIRM #1 Innovation Networks of relationships Brand & Reputation Kaye 1993
- 36. T Where are the sources today of sustainable competitive advantage? FIRM #1 Innovation Networks of relationships Brand & Reputation Teigland 2010
- 37. Measuring demand in advance
- 38. Threadless A platform for global community collaboration Est. $30 mln sales 30% profit margin in commodity business 20 employees but a 24x7 global “workforce” of 2.4 million No internal R&D or sales & marketing
- 39. From clothing to home products….
- 40. GE opens up patents on Quirky
- 42. Innovation in automotive design/production “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azCRuwtE_n0
- 45. DIY 3D printing becoming more commonplace…
- 46. DIY 3D printing becoming more commonplace… http://openfabpdx.com/fffiddle/
- 47. “Made in Africa” 3D printer (Togo) crowdfunded through Ulele Winner of International Space Apps Challenge http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/ArticleID/5712/E-Waste-3D-Printer-to-Mars.aspx
- 48. Endless possibilities for developing countries http://opensourceecology.org/
- 49. OpenSimulator: A value-creation ecosystem Academic Entrepreneur Hobbyist Large Firm Non-profit Local Public Federal Public Research Inst SME Employee Periphery Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 USD 5.5mln in development costs
- 50. What’s around the corner? 24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing $60,000 $150 Available for free download on http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/ Where is the firm?
- 51. Leading into the third industrial revolution Part I Background Part II Collaborative Innovation Part III The Sharing Economy
- 52. What is the Sharing Economy? Range of services that facilitate peer-to-peer transactions through the Internet USD 335 billion by 2025 in top five sectors https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWD-I5qPCfw
- 54. Uber Global platform for local community collaboration
- 55. Global platform for local community collaboration Launched June 2010 USD 17 bln valuation 43 countries globally Uber Limited physical assets UberPop, Uber Rush, ??
- 57. DHL’s MyWays
- 58. Internet – A Technical Glue Petra Sundström
- 59. Bitcoin – so much more than a “coin” From dumb to smart money Underlying Bitcoin protocol holds real transformative power Transfer property rights (e.g., shares, certificates, digital money) fast, transparent and very securely. http://thenextweb.com/insider/2014/02/15/bitcoin-platform-currency/
- 60. Big Data is now big money Tomas Larsson, Sep 2012 http://hbr.org/2012/10/data-scientist-the- sexiest-job-of-the-21st-century/ar/1
- 61. Thomas Jefferson (1816) “Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind.” The problem is that the human mind itself can’t keep pace with the advances that computers are enabling. http://wadhwa.com/2014/04/15/mit-technology-review-laws-and-ethics-cant-keep-pace-with-technology/
- 62. Knowledge becomes quickly outdated Ray Kurzweil, Singularity Institute
- 64. Institutions Challenges to institutions? Emergent Collective E.g., Central Bank ~ Long-standing financial institutions and regulations vs E.g., Bitcoin Community ~ Emergent collective of users across globe connected through internet Teigland, Yetis, Larsson, 2013 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707
- 65. Increasing pressure due to variety of new financial instruments Forces for change • Cryptocurrencies • Community currencies • Crowdfunding • Microfinance • P2P lending • Sharing The status quo Forces for stability • Governments • Central banks • Multinational financial actors • Legal system • Mindset
- 66. How should organizations react?
- 68. Internal corporate crowdfunding iFundIT More than 300 participants Entry-level workers to VPs Given $2,000 to invest over 8 week period Choose internal projects in which to invest
- 69. “Keep your enemies close…”
- 70. Some questions… What basic assumptions about value creation will no longer hold? What opportunities are there for your company related to the future of money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing economy? What strategic challenges are there within the nearest 2-3 years in connection with the future of money, collaborative innovation, and the sharing economy? What will you do tomorrow at work as a result of today’s discussion?
- 71. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 72. What’s around the corner? 24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing $60,000 $150 Available for free download on http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/ Where is the firm?
- 73. Models of Knowledge Creation The Firm E.g., Microsoft ~ Built by employees within organizational boundaries vs The Collective E.g., OpenSimulator ~ Built by users and distributed freely regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
- 74. Moving into the Third Industrial Revolution? O’Driscoll 2009
- 75. From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to … Teigland, JVWR, 2010 ...the “mobility” of labor?
- 76. Overview − EU funded, 3 year multilateral and transversal network (LLP EACEA, KA3 (ICT)) − December 2011 – December 2014 − Project Leader: University of Hull (Darren Mundy, Luisa Panichi) − 19 partners from Austria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, UK Network Aims −Collect good practice examples in teaching and learning in virtual worlds from different subjects and national and local contexts − Facilitate transfer of core knowledge to new contexts − Provide framework for creation of pan-European virtual-world university Expected Outcomes − Increased number of experts in virtual world education − Policy for long-term sustainability of network and its outcomes − Model for knowledge transfer − Range of dissemination events More information: http://www.euroversity.eu/
- 77. Published by Palgrave Macmillan http://www.amazon.com/dp/1137283017
- 78. Some things do not change Innovation Exchange Exchange Trust Trust Relationships Relationships Interaction
- 79. If you love knowledge, set it free… Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.nordicworlds.net @RobinTeigland If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC. Thank you!!!!!