May 2011 Third Industrial Revolution
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My presentation for Lindorff's Annual Conference: http://www.younited.no/Lindorff/forside.html
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May 2011 Third Industrial Revolution
- 2. "...when the rate of change outside an organization is greater than the rate of change inside, the end is near...." Jack Welch…
- 4. Human capacity cannot keep up… Growth Time Information and knowledge Human absorptive capacity Adapted from Cohen & Levinthal 1989
- 6. “ u r always on….” Adapted from FredCavazza.net
- 8. Drivers of change Increased Interactivity DiGangi 2010
- 9. The wisdom of the crowd Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Hinton 2007 Accurate
- 11. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Microelectronics Late 18 th C Late 19 th C Late 20 th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
- 13. Business models So, what happens to them? Johnson, Christensen, and Kagermann 2008, DiGangi 2010 They evolve...
- 15. DiGangi 2010
- 17. Access to 24x7 global workforce Average wage approx. USD 1.40 / hour http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~drand/
- 22. eZ Philosophy Connecting people who share a passion for something they do so that they can collaborate, share ideas, learn, and create knowledge
- 24. eZ provides platforms for interaction throughout its ecosystem eZ Software development team
- 25. Threadless: What came first – the community or the company?
- 26. Transparency, transparency, transparency http://twitter.com/#!/zappos Core Value #6: "Build Open and Honest Relationships with Communication
- 27. Just when you thought you got it…. O’Driscoll 2009
- 28. How many usually think of virtual worlds…
- 30. VWs moving out of “Gartner hype cycle” trough Virtual worlds today http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1447613 >1 bln users May 2006 July 2007
- 31. > 560 mln VW users under age 15 http://www.slideshare.net/nicmitham/kzero-radar-q1-2011?from=ss_embed
- 34. USD 635,000 for an asteroid! http://blogs.forbes.com/oliverchiang/2010/11/13/meet-the-man-who-just-made-a-cool-half-million-from-the-sale-of-virtual-property/ USD 500,000 profit in 5 years -Jon “Neverdie” Jacobs
- 35. From the mobility of goods to the mobility of financial capital to … Teigland, JVWR, 2010 ...the “mobility” of labor?
- 36. As soon as the Facebook generation wakes up and embraces virtual reality, we are going to see a giant wave of virtual world millionaires. -Jon “ Neverdie ” Jacobs
- 38. Karinda Rhode aka Robin Teigland [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.nordicworlds.net RobinTeigland Photo: Lindholm, Metro Photo: Nordenskiöld Photo: Lindqvist If you love knowledge, set it free…
- 39. Interested in learning more ?
Notas do Editor
- Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/opobs/2717076163/
- RT: One of the major results of the internet is that the growth of information and knowledge now exceeds human capacity to absorb this..and while research shows that the part of our brain that deals with processing signals from the environment has indeed grown and is now larger in the younger generation, we are still unable to keep up. So how do we handle this? (Next slide) Cohen, WM och Levinthal, D A, Absorptive Capacity: A new Perspective on Learning and Innovation, Working paper, Carnegie Mellon University and University of Pennsylvania, October 1989
- Image Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/purpleslog/3120320741/sizes/o/in/photostream/ RT: Here is a quotation from Pierre Levy, a researcher who studies collective intelligence, or …. He says, ”No one knows……”, but I have adapted this to be that “all knowledge resides in networks”. What good is knowledge if you cannot access it? Knowledge is created and transferred through networks. How many of you have heard of six degrees of separation? (raise hands)…this means that we are collected to all other human beings on the face of the planet through six links, where a link is from me to person x in audience. Thus, each of us actually has access to all knowledge and resources that exist. (Next slide) mobile phone, internet, here could have farmer in Asia, President Obama, Zlatan, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbX_I2fuqJk&feature=PlayList&p=079F3CFE9701D083&index=0 Pierre Lévy, Collective Intelligence: Mankind's Emerging World in Cyberspace , 1997 My example of how this presentation was made. Asked a question on Socnet and received many good answers with people ’s presentations and links to interesting sources
- While we have always had networks, what has changed dramatically is that now with social media we have the ability to easily and quickly reach out to individuals across the globe whom we have never met before. And another significant change is that previously while we had one to one two-way communication, this did not enable group communication, and while we also had one to many communication, this did not enable two way communication, but now with social media we can have many to many conversations. So for me the definition of social media are online communication channels that enable many to many interactions and conversations. And as no surprise the most active users of social media are younger people, those who have become skilled at using computers and the internet for all kinds of purposes – to build relationships, find information and knowledge, solve problems, and learn. An extensive study that was just completed by one of the gurus in this area, danah boyd, found that the digital world really is changing the way that young adults and youths socialize and learn. These younger generations are using these new media to explore their own interests and experiment with self-expression – while at the same time they are developing both technical skills and a new form of social skills – solving complex problems online in virtual teams. As a result, these individuals are not only used to but expect more freedom and autonomy in their problem-solving activities at work enable communication & collaboration … through user-generated content …. from one-to-one to many-to-many people … - across all boundaries (Next slide) Other notes http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbX_I2fuqJk creating new opportunities for youth to grapple with social norms, explore interests, develop technical skills, and experiment with new forms of self-expression. These activities have captured teens' attention because they provide avenues for extending social worlds, self-directed learning, and independence. Extending friendships online while some developing shared interest communities. Change way that youth socialize and learn - Youth engage in peer-based, self-directed learning online. – Youth respect one another's authority online, and they are often more motivated to learn from peers than from adults. Their efforts are also largely self-directed, and the outcome emerges through exploration, in contrast to classroom learning that is oriented by set, predefined goals. Increased degree of freedom and autonomy Not just receivers of knowledge but creators of knowledge as well danah boyd study We are happy to announce the online release of the findings from our three-year Digital Youth project (http://digitalyouth.ischool.berkeley.edu ). All of the researchers who have worked on this project will be writing up individual publications, but this report represents a synthesis of the findings across the 22 different case studies. It has been over three years in the making, and is the result of a truly collaborative effort with 28 researchers and research collaborators. This project is part of the MacArthur Foundation Digital Media and Learning initiative. http://digitallearning.macfound.org. You can find all the details in the documents linked below, and a summary of our report below. Two-page summary of report: http://digitalyouth.ischool.berkeley.edu/files/report/digitalyouth-TwoPageSummary.pdf White paper: http://digitalyouth.ischool.berkeley.edu/files/report/digitalyouth-WhitePaper.pdf Full report: http://digitalyouth.ischool.berkeley.edu/report Press release and video: http://digitallearning.macfound.org/ethnography -------- RESEARCH SUMMARY Over three years, Mimi Ito and her 28-person research team interviewed over 800 youth and young adults and conducted over 5000 hours of online observations as part of the most extensive U.S. study of youth media use to date. They found that social network sites, online games, video-sharing sites, and gadgets such as iPods and mobile phones are now fixtures of youth culture. The research finds today's youth may be coming of age and struggling for autonomy and identity amid new worlds for communication, friendship, play, and self-expression. Many adults worry that children are wasting time online, texting, or playing video games. The researchers explain why youth find these activities compelling and important. The digital world is creating new opportunities for youth to grapple with social norms, explore interests, develop technical skills, and experiment with new forms of self-expression. These activities have captured teens' attention because they provide avenues for extending social worlds, self-directed learning, and independence. MAJOR FINDINGS - Youth use online media to extend friendships and interests. - Most youth use online networks to extend the friendships that they navigate in the familiar contexts of school, religious organizations, sports, and other local activities. They can be always "on," in constant contact with their friends through private communications like instant messaging or mobile phones, as well as in public ways through social network sites such as MySpace and Facebook. With these "friendship-driven" practices, youth are almost always associating with people they already know in their offline lives. The majority of youth use new media to "hang out" and extend existing friendships in these ways. A smaller number of youth also use the online world to explore interests and find information that goes beyond what they have access to at school or in their local community. Online groups enable youth to connect to peers who share specialized and niche interests of various kinds, whether that is online gaming, creative writing, video editing, or other artistic endeavors. In these interest-driven networks, youth may find new peers outside the boundaries of their local community. They can also find opportunities to publicize and distribute their work to online audiences, and to gain new forms of Visibility and reputation. - Youth engage in peer-based, self-directed learning online. - In both friendship-driven and interest-driven online activity, youth create and navigate new forms of expression and rules for social behavior. By exploring new interests, tinkering, and "messing around" with new forms of media, they acquire various forms of technical and media literacy. Through trial and error, youth add new media skills to their repertoire, such as how to create a video or game, or customize their MySpace page. Teens then share their creations and receive feedback from others online. By its immediacy and breadth of information, the digital world lowers barriers to self-directed learning. Some youth "geek out" and dive into a topic or talent. Contrary to popular images, geeking out is highly social and engaged, although usually not driven primarily by local friendships. Youth turn instead to specialized knowledge groups of both teens and adults from around the country or world, with the goal of improving their craft and gaining reputation among expert peers. While adults participate, they are not automatically the resident experts by virtue of their age. Geeking out in many respects erases the traditional markers of status and authority. New media allow for a degree of freedom and autonomy for youth that is less apparent in a classroom setting. Youth respect one another's authority online, and they are often more motivated to learn from peers than from adults. Their efforts are also largely self-directed, and the outcome emerges through exploration, in contrast to classroom learning that is oriented by set, predefined goals. IMPLICATIONS New media forms have altered how youth socialize and learn, and raise a new set of issues that educators, parents, and policymakers should consider. -Adults should facilitate young people's engagement with digital media. Contrary to adult perceptions, while hanging out online, youth are picking up basic social and technical skills they need to fully participate in contemporary society. Erecting barriers to participation deprives teens of access to these forms of learning. Participation in the digital age means more than being able to access serious online information and culture. Youth could benefit from educators being more open to forms of experimentation and social exploration that are generally not characteristic of educational institutions. Because of the diversity of digital media, it is problematic to develop a standardized set of benchmarks against which to measure young people's technical and new media literacy. Friendship-driven and interest-driven online participation have very different kinds of social connotations. For example, whereas friendship-driven activities centers upon peer culture, adult participation is more welcomed in the latter more "geeky" forms of learning. In addition, the content, behavior, and skills that youth value are highly variable depending on what kinds of social groups they associate with. In interest-driven participation, adults have an important role to play. Youth using new media often learn from their peers, not teachers or adults. Yet adults can still have tremendous influence in setting learning goals, particularly on the interest-driven side where adult hobbyists function as role models and more experienced peers. To stay relevant in the 21st century, education institutions need to keep pace with the rapid changes introduced by digital media. Youths' participation in this networked world suggests new ways of thinking about the role of education. What, the authors ask, would it mean to really exploit the potential of the learning opportunities available through online resources and networks? What would it mean to reach beyond traditional education and civic institutions and enlist the help of others in young people's learning? Rather than assuming that education is primarily about preparing for jobs and careers, they question what it would mean to think of it as a process guiding youths' participation in public life more generally.
- Ency picture from www.versandantiquariat-schmitz.de/Lexika-Brit... http://s3.amazonaws.com/ppt-download/architectures-for-conversation-ii-what-communities-of-practice-can-mean-for-information-architecture-5733.pdf An essential difference between britannica and wikipedia is >>britannica is a one-way medium, handed down from authorities, >> While wikipedia is conversational. It fulfills more of what human beings want in their daily life. That ’s not to say that wikipedia is better than britannica, or that the old way is evil or irrelevant. It ’s just to say that technology has tapped into a latent need people have to be part of conversations.
- I always like to put things into perspective. I think that what is interesting and relevant here is that several economic historians had actually predicted the crisis that we are experiencing now. I don ’t have time to go into all the details, but what we are seeing is a pattern repeating itself. As in the late 18 th and 19 th Centuries there was a technological innovation that led to a period first of transformation as the innovation began to be diffused, then a period of rationalization leading to an imbalance, and then to a financial crisis coming around 40 years after the innovation. However, in the past, these financial crises have then led to periods of great economic development – industrial revolutions, in which industry profitability has been restored through a redistribution of the value-added between capital and labor. But more importantly, these crises filtered out those organizations that could not adapt and change to stay competitive in the new industrial environment. And one of the most important things that is of interest for today ’s discussion is that in one of the factors facilitating these new phases of economic growth following the crisis has been that a generation of people that had never experienced life without the innovation starts to enter the workforce – thus they are not restricted by old ways of thinking. experiencing now some economic historians claim to be due to the innovation of the microprocessor and microelectronics in the 1970s. Similar to what we experienced with the innovation of the steam engine in the late 18 th C and the internal combustion engine and electric motor in the late 19 th C, there was a subsequent crisis about due to various forces converging. We saw that as these basic innovations were diffused, people stopped investing in the existing industrial structure and instead focused on investing in a new generation of competitive machinery, which then led to an industrial revolution in both cases as the innovations became embedded in society. At the same time, the crisis served to release the negative pressure that had been built up as well as to restore industry profitability through the redistribution of value-added between capital and labor. Other notes Notes from article - Schön, L, Economic Crises and Restructuring in History A crisis is connected with changes in the long term or structural conditions built up during a rather long period of time and effects behavior for a long time to come Transformation – changes in industrial structure – resources are reallocated between industries and diffusion of basic innovations with industry that provides new bases for such reallocation Rationalization – concentration of resources to most productive units within the branches and measures to increase efficiency in different lines of production Shifts between transformation and rationalization have occurred with considerable regularity in structural cycle of 40 years – 25 years on transformation, and 15 years on rationalization. Crises been part of this cycle as well International crisis in 1840s – How go from crisis to expansion quickly – went quite rapidly in 1930s for Sweden – but Sweden in opposite corner in 1970s 1850s – upswing of industrial and infrastructural investments was linked to breakthrough of mechanized factories in Sweden, modernization of steel processes and construction of railways 1930s and more marked after WWII late 1940s - expansion of electrification and diffusion of automobiles, processing of electrosteel to small motors in handicraft and household – combination with motorcar – new styles in living and consumption Waves of investments around development of an infrastructure from basic innovation of preceding cycle mid 1970s – microprocessor – knowledge and information in production of goods and services It is not the basic innovation itself – but the diffusion of the innovation that counts! When invented, then expensive to implement, have a narrow range of application – Following generalization – A structural crisis (that has been preceded by an early development of basic innovations) has put an end to old directions of investments mainly in rationalization of existing industrial structure and given rise to investments in ne and devt of new tech that after one decade (the length of the classical Juglar cycle of machinery investments) has created a new generation of economically competitive machinery Reallocation of labor occurs approx 15-30 years after the structural crisis Development of markets – distribution of value added between capital and labour is one mirror of these changes Diffusion of innovations leads to expansion of markets and arrival of new competitors – Structural crises – release negative pressure and restored profitability in industry – get rid of those who not competitive
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- http://ez.no/company/news/ez_systems_wins_the_red_herring_global_100 Selected as a Red Herring 100 winner is a mark of distinction and high honor. Only 200 companies are chosen as finalists out of a pool of thousands. Of those finalists Red Herring selected 100 companies as winners. To decide on these companies the Red Herring editorial team diligently surveys entrepreneurship around the globe. Technology industry executives, investors, and observers regard the Red Herring 100 lists as invaluable instruments to discover and advocate the promising startups that will lead the next wave of disruption and innovation. Past award winners include Google, Yahoo!, Skype, Netscape, Salesforce.com, and YouTube.
- RT: presents Threadless, http://www.nickburcher.com/2009/05/threadless-twitter-tees-another-example.html 1,530,000 followers on Twitter The whole business model for Threadless is based on an implicit understanding of how the social web works and gives a great demonstration of how communities can be built and harnessed across an organisation. Identifying online enthusiasts and passion groups and then using social platforms to bring them into the core of a business would appear to be a more powerful way of utilising social opportunities than just running ads on Facebook - but it requires a good deal more commitment. The media aspect of social offers some exciting opportunities for brands, but the potential of the social web can be significantly greater if the power of community is fully realised. In summary, there has to be purpose behind why you use social media. Largest challenge is about changing the mindset though – where create value? Use of social media considerably larger in smaller companies: Inc 100 vs Fortune 100. In these smaller companies, social media being used as a leadership tool as well. Let ’s hear from some of you now on your thoughts about social media. (Next Slide)
- https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/cGAPUCiKe6LI6l5fM4rFqA Computer-generated, persistent space Three-dimensional, immersive environment Experienced by many people at once/interactivity
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CijdlYOSPc While many definitions of VWs, these are the characteristics that I find relevant to the study of virtual entrepreneurship. Persistent, computer-simulated, immersive environments ranging from 2D "cartoon" imagery to more immersive 3D environment world exists regardless of whether users logged in Users can manipulate and/or alter existing content or even create customized content Shared space or co-presence numerous users, or ‘avatars’, simultaneously participate, interact, and share experiences through gestures, text chat, and voice Socialization/community formation of in-world social groups such as teams, guilds, clubs, cliques, housemates, neighborhoods, etc the world allowed and encouraged
- http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/number_of_virtual_world_users_breaks_the_1_billion.php What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle? 1. "Technology Trigger" The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. 2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. 3. "Trough of Disillusionment" Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. 4. "Slope of Enlightenment" Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. 5. "Plateau of Productivity" A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Virtual worlds have reached a stage where new users continue to build, even though the media has moved on to fan the fires of Facebook and Twitter, says Douglas Thompson, CEO of Remedy Communications, a Toronto marketing firm. Second Life says the time spent on the site by users increased 21 percent in 2009. Most paying customers on Second Life are purely social, but it still boasts 1,400 business-related organizations as users. Thompson says traffic on Metanomics, his company’s Second Life video presence, has picked up in the past year, with 50 percent of new users coming from small or medium-size companies. “People no longer ask what an avatar is,” says Thompson. “We can thank Jim Cameron for that.” Read more: Entrepreneurs Doing Business by Avatar - Personal Finance - Employment - SmartMoney.com http://www.smartmoney.com/Personal-Finance/Employment/Entrepreneurs-Doing-Business-by-Avatar/#ixzz0pp1H6D7N
- RT: traditional leadership further challenged as we move to a world of web 3.0 or the immersive internet… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ahqjBeknT0
- As soon as the Facebook generation wake up and embrace virtual reality, we are going to see a giant wave of virtual world millionaires
- http://journals.tdl.org/jvwr/article/view/866
- As modeling and simulation technology improves, more and more real world items will be successfully designed in collaborative spaces that can be leveraged both by corporations and ad hoc groups. -Cory Ondrejka