International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). Conference on "Towards what works in Rural Development in Ethiopia: Evidence on the Impact of Investments and Policies". December 13, 2013. Hilton Hotel, Addis Ababa.

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The impact of improved seed development:
The success story of the Quncho teff variety
Bart Minten, Seneshaw Tamiru,
Ermias Engeda, and Tadesse Kuma
December 13th, 2013
Addis Ababa
1

2. 1. Introduction
• There are few success stories on the widespread adoption
of improved technologies in Africa and Ethiopia
• Due to two reasons:
1/ Few success stories out there;
2/ Measurement error (e.g. measurement of “improved”
varieties is not straightforward)
• Purpose of the analysis is to better understand the impact
of improved varieties in staple food production.
2

3. 2. Background Teff in Ethiopia
• Teff is a major crop in Ethiopia:
- 20% of all cultivated area, covering 2.7 million hectares
and grown by 6.3 million farmers (second most important
crop is maize with 15% of cultivated area)
- Given relatively low yields, total national production (3.5
million tons) in quantity is lower than maize and sorghum.
- Value of production in 2011/12 was 1.6 billion USD, the
most important crop in the country.
- Value of commercial surplus (CS) 2011/12: 464 million
USD, as important as sorghum, maize, and wheat
combined; one-quarter less than coffee (600 million USD)
3

4. 3. Data
• Stratified random sample at the producer level:
- 1,200 farmers interviewed in five major teff production
zones (East Gojjam, West Gojjam, East Shewa, West
Shewa, South-West Shewa).
- These five zones represent 38% of national teff area and
42% of the commercial surplus.
•
Farmers were asked detailed questions on production
practices and adoption of modern inputs

5. 4. The success story of Quncho
1. Quick and widespread adoption of quncho (DZ-Cr-387)
- 32% of teff producers ever used quncho; 24% used it in
the Meher of 2011/2012
- Number of years since household uses quncho is 2
- For users, 84% of white teff area is allocated to quncho
Mentioned advantages of quncho: a. Higher yields;
b. Lower seed rates needed; c. Better price; d. More fodder;
e. Less lodging

6. Take-off of quncho
• Quncho only started in 2010; in 2013, 32% farmers used it
100
90
% of quncho adopters
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2011
Year of adoption of quncho
2012

7. 0
10
20
30
40
Adoption of quncho
0
50
100
Transport costs to Addis (Birr/quintal)
150

8. 4. The success story of Quncho
2. Large productivity effects

9. Productivity effects, ceteris paribus
• Quncho is used in association with a number of other
improved outputs as promoted as part of a “package”
• To disassociate the effects of these inputs, run a CobbDouglas production function and use fixed and random
effect models (control for household specific effects).
• We find that Quncho seeds have 10% higher production
than traditional seeds or other improved seeds, ceteris
paribus.

10. 4. The success story of Quncho
3. High rates of returns to investments
a. Assumptions:
- 10% higher yields because of quncho
- 50% of the teff farmers adopt
- Yearly benefit of 80 million USD
- 20 year horizon
b. Rate of return:
- If costs of development/extension assumed to be 50 million
USD, rate of return= 160%
- If costs of development/extension assumed to be 200
million USD, rate of return= 40%

11. 5. What contributed to its success?
1. Public investments
a. Seed development
• Research on improved teff varieties since the mid50s, only a small number of improved varieties have been
released (20 in total)
• Quncho is a cross from Magna (DZ-01-196) and Dukem
(DZ-01-974); It inherited its white color from Magna and
its yield potential from Dukem
• Developed by the Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Center

12. 5. What contributed to its success?
1. Public investments
b. Seed multiplication
- Intensified seed multiplication scheme by research
centers
- Support to on-farm seed production
- Private seed growers encouraged to participate

13. 5. What contributed to its success?
1. Public investments
c. Extension
• Large investments in extension efforts
%
Received a visit of an agricultural extension agent
in the last 2 years
In last 12 months:
Farmer visited a demonstration plot of teff
Farmer visited a government office of agriculture
and discussed teff issues
Farmer knows the recommended fertilizer use on
teff plots
74
37
27
51

14. 5. What contributed to its success?
2. Market orientation
- Urbanization (1.2 million more people in Addis), income
growth and economic superior characteristics of teff
(doubling of income, 110% increase in teff consumption
expenditure); These factors combined might have led to
doubling of commercial surplus into Addis in last 10 years
- White teff increasingly demanded (mostly preferred by
richer households)

15. 5. What contributed to its success?
- White and magna teff preferred by the urban and
richer population
Consumers
Poorest Middle Richest
income
Type of teff bought (%)
Red
Mix
White
Magna
Total
23
64
11
2
100
5
35
50
9
100
3
5
35
57
100

16. 6. Implications
1. Despite quncho take-off, major room for improved seed
development:
a. lodging resistant varieties, more attention to taste
preferences (quncho suffers from drying out
disadvantage), disease and pest resistant varieties.
b. More sophisticated techniques of breeding
2. Better knowledge on other technologies to improve teff
productivity needed, i.e. row
planting, transplanting, response to fertilizers that contain
zinc and copper, minimal tillage
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17. 6. Implications
3. Can the quncho success story be applied to other cereals?
Possible. However, unique case of teff :
a. Success because not that many improved teff varieties
available
b. Strong and increasing market demand for teff, and
especially white teff
4. Cultivar improvements are needed but so are further
agronomy work, crop management, and natural resource
conservation