1. Financial Propaganda Model in SoLoMo Era:
Demand Creation and Journalism
SoLoMo時代的金融宣傳模式: 製造需求與新聞學
Thomas Hu 胡一天 November 2012

2. Table of Contents 目錄
§ Demand Creation in SoLoMo Era
§ Anatomy of Financial Propaganda Model
§ Big Data and Propaganda Model
§ Trust and Uncertainty
§ Implications for Journalism

3. “Supply creates its own demand.”
~ John Maynard Keynes
Demand Creation in SoLoMo Era
SoLoMo時代如何製造需求

4. Investment Vehicles To Play Mobility Trend: We have identified
vehicles (Google, eBay, Amazon, and pure plays like Velti, etc) for in
on mobility, in addition to a number of private companies in the spa
Global Mobile Devices Already Outnumber PCs
We estimate global smartphone shipments surpassed PC shipmen
the early tipping point in what has become a massive consumer
Social Media: New Focal Point ofimpacting all companies in our coverage universe.
mobile space, Internet
社群媒體是互聯網的新焦點
Figure 31: PC and Smartphone Unit Shipments (mn) Figur
SoLoMo風潮席捲全球 1,200 100
§ 90
1,000 WW smartphone 80
§ 2010年全球智能手機的銷量超越pc
Unit Shipments (mn)
shipments surpassed 70
800 PC shipments in 2010
60
600 50
§ 社群媒體佔據互聯網用戶16%的時間
40
400 30
§ 廣告與產品須打進Web 2.0消費者的心 200
20
10
0
§ 社群的信任與方便的通訊科技是關鍵 -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
PC Unit Shipments (DT + LT) Smartphone Unit Shipments
§ 無所不在的最終通路: Your Mind!
Source: IDC and Deutsche Bank IT Hardware Team Source: ID
Page 42

5. SoLoMo e-Commerce: Not New in Financial Markets
金融市場對SoLoMo電子商務並不陌生
§ NASADAQ早開B2B電子商務的先河
§ 過去三十年資訊科技的演進降低交易費用但未改變交易本質
§ 金融交易的本質是搜尋(search)與驗證(verification)買賣雙方的動態過程
§ 華爾街對資訊科技的投資不遺餘力
§ 全球金融業的IT投資額於2012-15年上看三千八百億美元
§ 歐美市場各佔三分之一，亞洲增長持續加速
§ 全球投資銀行業的平均年營運固定成本上看四十億美元，IT開銷為大宗項目
§ Why Spend So Much Money?
§ Lehman Shock & Global Credit Crisis =>金融服務供應過剩而需求不振
§ 華爾街證券化工廠需要不斷製造需求來維持規模經濟 => More Deals, Less Capital
§ 病毒行銷、行為預測、網絡成癮 => Similarity between Wall Street & e-commerce platform

6. “The mass media are interested in attracting audiences with buying power,
not audiences per se.”
~ Noam Chomsky
Anatomy of Financial Propaganda Model
剖析金融宣傳模式

7. Socialize, Localize, Mobilize
拉攏，融入，動員
§ 1988年杭士基(Noam Chomsky)提出宣傳模式(propaganda model)以解釋:
§ 新聞媒體在灌輸與鞏固政經意識型態的關鍵角色
§ 媒體的所有權與資金來源導致統治精英製造公眾同意(manufactured consent)
§ 華爾街的金融宣傳模式:
§ 研究與投行業務間的Chinese Wall => biased and vulnerable
§ 業務第一、真相不重要 => “Customers have very short memory”
§ 獨立分析團隊創造價值 (Meredith Whitney, Muddy Water…) => Sustainable?
§ Why Financial SoLoMo?
§ Socialize to gain trust => user stickiness
§ Localize to frame focus and eliminate choices => targeted marketing
§ Mobilize herd mentality and create concerted collective response => fast sell-through

8. How Buy-side and Sell-side Interact in Financial Markets?
買賣雙方如何在金融市場互動?
§ 實例: Tommy於一間管理一百億美元的紐約對沖基金擔任資深分析師
§ 一日之計在於晨 => 透過智能手機與平板大量閱讀
§ 高度整合的互動科技 => 即時網聊、即時新聞、即時反應
§ 量身訂製的資訊傳播 => thematic strategy, road show, conference call, live broadcast etc.
§ Social network => 斛杯交錯間，買賣決定時
§ 電子交易平台打造金融博奕新戰場
§ 金融宣傳模式的特質
§ Contextual => 動聽的故事製造協同行為
§ Pervasive => 針對使用者注意力的飽和攻擊
§ Reflexive => 建構在市場偏見與預期正回饋循環上的反射理論(George Soros)
§ Individual => 巨量市場資訊與分析可以精準標定用戶偏好與預期行為
§ Social => 金融交易是在賭心思、人類機械交相賊
§ WHY DOES IT STILL WORK IF EVERYONE KNOWS HOW IT WORKS?

9. “It is not who I am underneath, but what I do that defines me.”
~ Batman/Bruce Wayne
Big Data and Propaganda Model
巨量資訊與宣傳模式

10. Big Data Analytics Enhance Propaganda
巨量資訊強化宣傳
§ 資料庫科技的創新從不停息
§ 規模、速度、容錯
§ 75%的數位資訊來自個人 => 愈來愈多的資訊來自人類自發的創作分享與喃喃自語
§ Facebook, Twitter, YouTube上的用戶資訊分散、龐雜且成指數式增長
§ Big Data => 針對巨量資訊的分析是Web 2.0的新顯學
§ Collective Intelligence
§ 集體智慧與群眾心理
§ 金融市場的群性 => Futures market as price discovery mechanism
§ 社群網絡上的朋友數量與大腦灰皮質的容量正相關 => better stock picker?
§ Algorithmic trading and e-commerce market microstructure
§ 巨量資訊與宣傳模式
§ How Target figured out a teenage girl was pregnant before her father did?
§ Consumer protection and privacy: an Orwellian luxury?
§ TRUST NO ONE?

11. “There are known knowns;
There are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns;
But there are also unknown unknowns.
The ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
~ Donald Rumsfield
Trust and Uncertainty
信任與不確定

12. Social Media Create New Layer of Trust Infrastructure
社群媒體形塑新的信用基礎
§ 資本主義市場經濟是用合約結成的網絡
§ 看不見的手 => 信用
§ 信用風險是市場波動的本源 => 資訊不對稱、不確定、不可測
§ 社會信用基礎建設(Social Trust Infrastructure) => 法院(laws))、銀行(money)、媒體(news)
§ 金融危機與信任危機 => fear, greed, animal spirit and market mania
§ 社群網絡形塑新的信用基礎建設
§ Facebook用戶破十億人 => The Birth of A Nation?
§ 消費者信用服務 => 信用評等與行為預測
§ Facebook Credits => 新型態的貨幣？
§ 金融化的社群網絡平台與宣傳模式
§ ARE WE READY YET?
§ WHAT IS TRUE?
§ WHOM TO TRUST?

13. “History isn’t written by logic.”
~ Oriana Fallaci
Implications for Journalism
對新聞學的指涉

14. Crownless King Without Clothes
沒有新衣的無冕王
§ 曾幾何時，新聞媒體從業人員是受人尊敬的專業
§ 沒有網絡的時代，記者決定閱聽大眾如何思考
§ 社群網絡的時代，只要有心，人人都能當記者
§ Information is almost free but good judgment is priceless => So What?
§ 新聞記者的存在意義（rasion d’etre）為何？
§ Journalist or Propagandist?
§ Still relevant when Google is omnipresent and omniscient?
§ Public suspicion when independent journalism is financially struggling?
§ Information Tribalism and Institutional mistrust?
§ Active promoter or astute spectator?
§ 人類對抗暴政就是記憶與遺忘的鬥爭 => SoLoMo Journalist and New Responsibility
§ Sober Thinker
§ Loud Speaker
§ Motivated Fighter

15. Questions & Answers
問與答