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2. FX Headlines: British Pound At Risk With
Carney’s Speech Looking Dovish
Global Selling Persists but Yen Eases;
Pound Down Before Carney
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is scrapping back some of its
losses yesterday and now appears to be forming a minor Bull Flag
on the daily chart. Whereas the Australian Dollar, the British Pound,
and the Euro have all been cooperating with the US Dollar’s attempt
to strengthen, the simple demand for liquidity amid risk-aversion
has prevented any such progress against the Japanese Yen.
Today, the USDJPY has started to take back some of its losses
from Tuesday, but gains have been limited as pressure on
emerging markets remains. It seems that a negative feedback loop
is setting in, driving down investor sentiment and exacerbating
stress in markets around the world:
Certainly, the global selloff has hardly reached the European
currencies, which have turned into a near-term safe haven of sorts
amid turmoil in the commodity currency complex. But the British
Pound today especially is vulnerable to a setback.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give his first policy
speech today, and in light of recent price action in the British Pound
and UK Gilts, we are expecting a dovish tone to be struck. In the
Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) released earlier this month,
economic “circuit breakers” were identified that would signal a wind
down of the BoE’s easing program.
While the initial commentary from Governor Carney may prove to
be dovish, it will take a concerted shift in his policy stance – even
more dovish – in order for the desire effect to be achieved: softer
UK yields. Accordingly, barring an overtly dovish tone, it is possible
that the Sterling sets up an opportunity to buy the dip later today.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3320 TGT 1.3300/1.3280
SL 1.3350
SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.20
TGT 97.00/96.70 SL 97.50
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5450 TGT 1.5430/1.5400
SL 1.5480
HEADLINES
7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Aug 25
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD)
(New Zealand dollars)
(JUL)
Medium -1688M -956M -816M
22:45
NZD Trade Balance
(New Zealand dollars)
(JUL)
Medium -774M -16M 374M
22:45
NZD Exports (New
Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Low 3.85B 3.90B 4.01B
22:45
NZD Imports (New
Zealand dollars) (JUL)
Low 4.62B 3.90B 3.63B
23:50
JPY Corporate Service
Price (YoY) (JUL)
Low 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Mon
Aug 26
JPY Japan Economic
Panel Meets on Sales
Tax Increase (26-31)
Medium
08:00
ECB's Jens Weidmann
Speaks on Euro
Economy
Medium
12:30
USD Durable Goods
Orders (JUL)
High -4.0% 3.9%
12:30
USD Durables Ex
Transportation (JUL)
Medium 0.5% -0.1%
12:30
USD Cap Goods
Orders Nondef Ex Air
(JUL)
Low 0.5% 0.9%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship
Nondef Ex Air (JUL)
Low 0.3% -0.9%
14:30
USD Dallas Fed
Manufacturing Activity
(AUG)
Low 3.9 4.4
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and
Diesel Fuel Update
Low
Tue
Aug 27
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits
YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Low 11.1%
05:00
JPY Small Business
Confidence (AUG)
Medium 49.4
08:00
EUR German IFO -
Business Climate
(AUG)
Medium 107 106.2
08:00
EUR German IFO -
Current Assessment
(AUG)
Medium 111 110.1
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 08:00
EUR German IFO -
Expectations (AUG)
Medium 103.1 102.4
10:50
USD Fed's Williams
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Sweden
Low
11:00
EUR ECB's Coeure
Speaks In Gothenburg,
Sweden
Low
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City
s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low 1.0% 1.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Composite-20 (YoY)
(JUN)
Low 12.1% 12.2%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index
(JUN)
Low 159.40 156.14
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
US Home Price Index
(2Q)
Low 136.7
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller
US Home Price Index
(YoY) (2Q)
Low 10.2%
14:00
LIVE
USD Consumer
Confidence (AUG)
High 79.0 80.3
14:00
USD Richmond Fed
Manufacturing Index
(AUG)
Low 0 -11
Wed
Aug 28
CNY Leading Index
(JUL)
Medium 99.55
00:00
AUD CBAHIA House
Affordability (2Q)
Low 69.7
GBP Nationwide House
Prices s.a. (MoM)
(AUG)
Low 0.6% 0.8%
JPY BoJ Deputy
Governor Iwata Speak
at Kyoto Chamber of
Commerce
Low
01:30
AUD Construction Work
Done (2Q)
Low 1.0% -2.0%
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption
Indicator (JUL)
Medium 1.44
06:00
EUR German GfK
Consumer Confidence
Survey (SEP)
Medium 7.1 7.0
06:00
EUR German Import
Price Index (MoM)
(JUL)
Low 0.3% -0.8%
06:00
EUR German Import
Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Low -2.5% -2.2%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a.
(3M) (JUL)
Low 2.4% 2.8%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a.
(YoY) (JUL)
Low 2.0% 2.3%
10:00
GBP CBI Reported
Sales (AUG)
Low 20 17
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (AUG 23)
Low -4.6%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly
Earnings (YoY) (JUN)
Low 2.5%
10. 12:45
GBP Bank of England
Governor Carney to
Speak on U.K.
Economy
Medium
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 9.1%
14:00
USD Pending Home
Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.0% -0.4%
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (AUG
23)
Low -1090K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (AUG
23)
Low -1428K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(AUG 23)
Low 871K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(AUG 23)
Low -4029K
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(AUG 23)
Medium -¥903.8B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(AUG 23)
Medium -¥3.0B
23:50
JPY Large Retailers'
Sales (JUL)
Medium -0.5% 3.5%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium -0.3% 1.6%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(AUG 23)
Low ¥38.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(AUG 23)
Low ¥47.9B
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts
Corp (YoY) (JUL)
Low 1.7%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a.
(MoM) (JUL)
Low -1.0% -0.2%
Thu
Aug 29
01:00
AUD HIA New Home
Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Medium 3.4%
01:00
NZD NBNZ Business
Confidence (AUG)
Medium 52.8
01:00
NZD ANZ Activity
Outlook (AUG)
Low 43.7
01:30
AUD Private Capital
Expenditure (2Q)
Low 0.0% -4.7%
01:30
JPY BOJ Board
Member Morimoto
Speech
Low
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Change
(AUG)
High -5K -7K
07:55
EUR German
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (AUG)
High 6.8% 6.8%
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business
Barometer (AUG)
Low 41
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (YoY)
(AUG P)
High 1.7% 1.9%
11. 12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(YoY) (AUG P)
High 1.7% 1.9%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index -
EU Harmonised (MoM)
(AUG P)
Medium 0.1% 0.4%
12:00
EUR German
Consumer Price Index
(MoM) (AUG P)
Medium 0.1% 0.5%
12:30
USD Core Personal
Consumption
Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q
S)
Medium 0.8% 0.8%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic
Product (Annualized)
(2Q S)
Medium 2.2% 1.7%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic
Product Price Index (2Q
S)
Medium 0.7% 0.7%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (AUG 23)
Medium 330K
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption (2Q S)
Medium 1.8% 1.8%
12:30
CAD Current Account
(BoP) (Canadian dollar)
(2Q)
Low -$14.8B -$14.1B
12:30
CAD Industrial Product
Price (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.3% 0.3%
12:30
CAD Raw Materials
Price Index (MoM)
(JUL)
Low 0.7% 0.3%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(AUG 17)
Low 2990K 2990K
12:50
USD Fed's Bullard to
Speak to Leadership
Memphis
Low
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (AUG
23)
Low 57
18:00
USD Fed's Lacker
Speaks in Virginia
Low
22:45
NZD Building Permits
(MoM) (JUL)
Medium 1.3% -4.0%
23:05
GBP GfK Consumer
Confidence Survey
(AUG)
Medium -14 -16
23:15
JPY Nomura/JMMA
Manufacturing
Purchasing Manager
Index (AUG)
Medium 50.7
23:30
LIVE
JPY National Consumer
Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
High 0.7% 0.2%
23:30
JPY Household
Spending (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 0.2% -0.4%
23:30
LIVE
JPY Jobless Rate (JUL) Medium 3.9% 3.9%
23:30
JPY National Consumer
Price Index Ex-Fresh
Food (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 0.6% 0.4%
23:30
JPY National Consumer
Price Index Ex Food,
Energy (YoY) (JUL)
Medium -0.2% -0.2%
12. 23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant
Ratio (JUL)
Low 0.93 0.92
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index Ex-Fresh
Food (YoY) (AUG)
Low 0.4% 0.3%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index Ex Food,
Energy (YoY) (AUG)
Low -0.3% -0.4%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer
Price Index (YoY)
(AUG)
Low 0.5% 0.4%
23:45
USD Fed's James
Bullard to Speak on
U.S. Economy
Medium
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (YoY) (JUL
P)
Medium 1.8% -4.6%
23:50
JPY Industrial
Production (MoM) (JUL
P)
Low 3.7% -3.1%
Fri
Aug 30
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 3.1% 3.1%
01:30
AUD Private Sector
Credit (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.4% 0.4%
01:45
CNY MNI August
Business Sentiment
Indicator
Low
03:00
NZD Money Supply M3
(YoY) (JUL)
Low 6.2%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production
(YoY) (JUL)
Low -9.5%
05:00
JPY Annualized
Housing Starts (JUL)
Medium 0.996M 0.976M
05:00
JPY Housing Starts
(YoY) (JUL)
Medium 14.3% 15.3%
05:00
JPY Construction
Orders (YoY) (JUL)
Low 21.9%
06:00
GBP Nationwide House
Prices n.s.a. (YoY)
(AUG)
Medium 3.3% 3.9%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 1.7% -2.8%
06:00
EUR German Retail
Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.6% -1.5%
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss
Leading Indicator
(AUG)
Medium 1.33 1.23
08:00
EUR Italian
Unemployment Rate
(JUL P)
Low 12.2% 12.1%
08:00
EUR Italian
Unemployment Rate
s.a. (2Q)
Low 12.1% 11.9%
08:30
GBP Mortgage
Approvals (JUL)
Medium 59.0K 57.7K
08:30
GBP Net Consumer
Credit (JUL)
Medium 0.7B 0.5B
08:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M
Annualised (JUL)
Low 3.9% 4.7%
13. 08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.1%
08:30
GBP M4 Money Supply
(YoY) (JUL)
Low 1.5%
08:30
GBP Net Lending Sec.
on Dwellings (JUL)
Low 1.2B 1.0B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index -
Core (YoY) (AUG A)
High 1.1% 1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence
(AUG F)
Medium
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Price Index
Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
Medium 1.4% 1.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Unemployment Rate
(JUL)
Medium 12.1% 12.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Business Climate
Indicator (AUG)
Low -0.36 -0.53
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Economic Confidence
(AUG)
Low 93.8 92.5
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial Confidence
(AUG)
Low -9.6 -10.6
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Services Confidence
(AUG)
Low -6.7 -7.8
12:30
LIVE
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (JUN)
High 1.6%
12:30
LIVE
CAD Quarterly Gross
Domestic Product
Annualized (2Q)
High 1.6% 2.5%
12:30
LIVE
CAD Gross Domestic
Product (MoM) (JUN)
Medium -0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 1.3% 1.2%
12:30
USD Personal Income
(JUL)
Medium 0.2% 0.3%
12:30
USD Personal
Spending (JUL)
Medium 0.3% 0.5%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Core
(MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.2% 0.4%
12:30
USD Personal
Consumption
Expenditure Deflator
(YoY) (JUL)
Low 1.5% 1.3%
13:00
USD Fed's Bullard to
Speak on U.S.
Economy in Memphis
Low
13:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee
(AUG)
Low 52.43
13:45
USD Chicago
Purchasing Manager
(AUG)
Medium 53.0 52.3
14. 13:55
USD U. of Michigan
Confidence (AUG F)
Medium 80.5 80.0
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