This document summarizes a workshop presentation about using chance events and intervention to generate hypotheses. It discusses abduction as the "logic" of hypothesis generation, where scientists generate explanations for observed facts rather than passively observing. The document also discusses how intervention through "epistemic mediation" and "tinkering on chance events" can help address Meno's Paradox that you cannot search for something without knowing what you are looking for. Chance-seeking is presented as an adaptive, forward-looking process that makes use of ignorance and chance events to generate knowledge through clumsy but workable solutions.

1. Epistemic tools for
chance-seeking
Emanuele Bardone
Institute of Informatics, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia
AISB Workshop - Bournemouth, 27-28
January 2014

2. “philosophy of science is about
as useful to scientists as
ornithology is to birds” R.
Feynman

3. Engaging agent-based modelers in
conversation
1) Hypothesis
generation
2)
Intervention
3) chanceseeking

4. Hypothesis
generation
1

5. Hypothesis
generation
Deduction of
consequences
Empirical testing
Empirical testing

6. Is there anything like a “logic” of
hypothesis generation?
Hypothesis
?????
generation

7. Psycholo
gy
God knows
what
History and
sociology

8. Abduction as the “logic” of HG
Hypothesis generation involves a specific
form of (fallacious) inference - called
abduction.
A fact, C, is observed.
if H were true, C would be a matter of course.
Hence, there is reason to suspect that H is true.

9. f
f
1
2
f
3
f
H
or y
at
lan e
xp alu
E v
4
H is likely to be the case, because H explains the
presence of all the relevant, known facts

10. Interventio
n
2

11. Where do relevant facts come from
then?

12. Scientists are not passive
observers
From “Kitchen
stories”

13. Intervention via
epistemic mediation

14. f
f
1
2
f
H
3
f
4
Intervening is still conjectural and yet has
very little to do with inferring to the (best)
explanation

15. The Meno’s
Paradox
To search for the solution of a problem is an
absurdity. For either you know what you are
looking for, and then there is no problem; or
you do not know what you are looking for, and
then you are not looking for anything and
cannot expect to find anything

16. Chanceseeking
3

17. The role of chance
events
A chance is everything that we cannot
anticipate or predict. As such it hints at
nothing but our ignorance

18. Introducing chanceseeking
As soon as we intervene in the world, we
inevitably have to engage with our ignorance
We can make use of our ignorance by tinkering
on chance events

19. Chance-seeking as tinkering on chance
events
Adaptive, forward-looking
No foresight into the future
To make use of whatever comes
in handy
Ambulatory knowledge (we know
as we go, not before we go)
Clumsy solutions - kludges - yet
workable and open to further
improvements (if any)

20. Thanks!