1. Some observations and comments on EU’s roadmap for low carbon growth in 2050 Remko Ybema

2. Observation: messages of hope A road to a low carbon economy is within reach A consistent picture of the portfolio of low-carbon technologies Substantial upfront cost, but these will be largely paid back Investments will spur economic growth and create jobs Substantial co-benefits Tested under different technical conditions 2 23-3-2011

3. It shows what is needed…. A major increase in capital investments (270 bill. euro) The EU ETS will be critical to drive a wide range of technologies Smart financing schemes Public private financing mechanisms Additional RD&D investments (50 bill euro in 10 years) 3 23-3-2011

4. But….. Nowadays economy seems the only priority Conflicting stakes: some will lose… Inertia: not only physical inertia, also in policy processes, coordination, institutions, mindsets, behaviour…. Price of CO2 is low Behavioural issues matter Often difficult to attract capital …and how to divide upfront cost? 4 23-3-2011

5. One of the reasons to beoptimistic: investments in renewables 5 In 2010: 243 billion dollar [REN21, 2010] 23-3-2011

6. But ….. howitcompareswithrevenues of 10 largestcompanies …. 6 23-3-2011 [CNN money, 2011]

7. Determinants of behaviour not covered Needs satisfaction is leading, not energy considerations Risk aversion prevents many to change Only a small correlation between awareness and easy/symbolic green behaviour Denial Blame others Blame the circumstances Change opinion

8. Conclusions EU roadmap: messages of hope It shows what is needed, but partially Several elements are missing, including them makes the challenge larger