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Global Warning
on Global Warming


     YW Chow

       2007


                    1
Since 2000, Polar Bears have been found
                      drowned due to absence of Ice to rest on



                    The Polar Bears are dying

                       And we are next.....


No Ice to Live on

                                          No Food to Eat
                                                                 2
3
Climate change
•   For over 30 years, scientists have predicted increased
    greenhouse gasses that will cause unnatural changes
•   In 2000:
     ✓Antarctic sea ice break-ups
     ✓Antarctic Peninsula warming
     ✓Arctic sea ice melting
     ✓11°F Arctic warming
     ✓Sea level rise
     ✓Melting of small glaciers	and ice caps
     ✓And more…
                                                             4
Some Climate change facts
• Globe 1°F warmer than 100 yrs ago
• Last glacial max. was only 5°F cooler
• Not equally distributed
 • Some areas have warmed 11°F
 • Winter and night increasing fastest
    (~5 times faster)
• Weather becoming more variable and
  more severe

                                          5
The climate has always changed




                                 6
Some consequences
•   Fastest extinction rate in 65 M years (1000x normal
    rate)

•   Increased disease (e.g. asthma, malaria)

•   Increased poverty and hunger

•   Sea level rise

•   More extreme weather
    •   Droughts

    •   Flooding

    •   Heat-waves

    •   Storms

                                                          7
Evidence from the Earth




                          8
Global instrumental
                                             temperature record
                                 5 Warmest years so far:
                                 1. 2005
                                 2. 1998 (El Niño year)
Departures in temperature (°C)
 from the 1961-1990 average




                                 3. 2002
                                 4. 2003
                                 5. 2004




                                                                   9
390


                                                                               2006
                                      380
Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv)




                                      370



                                      360



                                      350



                                      340



                                      330



                                      320


                                      310
                                            1960   1970   1980   1990   2000

                                                                                      10
Reconstructed Surface Temperatures




                                     11
Reconstructed CO2 concentrations


                                      380
                                      370
Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv)




                                      360
                                      350
                                                              Mauna Loa (1958 - present)
                                      340
                                      330                     Siple Station (1750 - )
                                      320
                                      310
                                      300

                                      290
                                      280
                                      270
                                            1750       1800             1850            1900   1950   2000




                                                                                                             12
CO2 concentration after 50
                                                                                        years of unrestricted fossil
                                                                                        fuel burning (600 ppmv)




                                8-12 o
                                Celcius
                                2050

                                                                                           Present CO2
                                                                                           concentration (381
                                                                                           ppmv)




             300

             270
CO2 (ppmv)




             240

             210

             180
 Temp.
 Proxy




                   800         600                           400                           200                         0
                                  Thousands of Years Before Present
                         Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004

                                                                                                                           13
2xCO2
GFDL model simulations of
Surface Air Warming (°F)




                               4xCO2
Northern hemisphere mid-
continent average warming is
15-25°F! ➙


This is a roasted world.




                                       14
Signs of climate change
• Sea level rise
    – by thermal expansion AND ice melt
•   Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic)
•   Glaciers melting worldwide
•   Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest
•   Melting on ice sheets is accelerating
• More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms,
  heat waves, hard freezes, etc.)


• Bottom line:
    – These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add
      the effects of increased GHGs




                                                                    15
Hurricanes




             16
Hurricanes are Getting More Severe
                                120
Number of Hurricanes/Category




                                100
                                                Cat 1


                                 80
                                              Cat 2-3



                                 60

                                                Cat 4-5

                                 40
                                      70-74   75-79          80-84          85-89          90-94         95-99   00-04
                                                                         Years


                                               P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, 2005.

                                                                                                                         17
Cyclones are more destructive
                                                           0.4


          Atlantic Potential Destructive intensity (PDI)   0.2


                                                           1.2


                                                           1.0


                                                           0.8


                                                           0.6


                                                           0.4


                                                           0.2
                                                                 1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010



Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 2005

                                                                                                                         18
Numbers of CATEGORY 4 and 5 hurricanes
   in last two 15 year periods by ocean basin

                                                                 85
        West Pacific
                                                                           116

                                       24
              Indian
                                                          57

                                                36
         East Pacific
                                                     49

                            10
Southwestern Pacific
                                      22
                                                               1975-1989
                                                               1990-2004
                                 16
     North Atlantic
                                       25


                        0                  30             60      90       120
                                                                                 19
In 2004, one in five homes in Florida was
                                                                       damaged by a hurricane.




                                                      JEAN
                                                          NE –
IVAN – SEPT. 2-24, 2004




                                                                 SEPT
                                                                     .1   3-28,
                                                                                  2004
                          CHARLEY – AUG. 9-14, 2004




                                                                          FRAN
                                                                                   CES
                                                                                         – AU
                                                                                             G. 25
                                                                                                  -SEP
                                                                                                       T. 8,
                                                                                                             2004




                                                                                                                    20
21
Katrina          Rita          Wilma
(Aug 28 ’05)   (Sep 21 ’05)   (Oct 19 ’05)


                                             22
Change in global land & ocean surface temperature
                                           from the 1961-1990 baseline



                                   5 Warmest years so far:
                                 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004
Temperature anomaly (°C)




                                                                               23
Glaciers




           24
Kilimanjaro




       2000




1993




                      25
Kilimanjaro




1970                 2005




                            26


                                 26
1978




       Qori Kalis glacier
2002
       (part of the tropical
       Quelccaya ice cap,
       Peru)




              27


                               27
Is Greenland Melting?




                        28
Greenland satellite melt record




  1992                  2002
                                  29


                                       29
Rising Seas




              30
Sea-level rise
•   Thermal expansion
•   Addition of water
•   Freshening of water
•   Melting ice sheets
    – Greenland: 7.4 m (25’) potential
    – Antarctica: 74 m (250’) potential
       • West Antarctica (7 m)
       • East Antarctica (67 m)




                                          31
32
Tsunamis




           33
34
Floods




         35
What can you do?




                   36
What can you do?
• Cut back on consumption (energy, plastics, rich
  foods)
• Plant trees (-20 lbs of CO2 / year)
• Drive less / carpool (+25 lbs of CO2 / gallon)
• Buy the right CAR, appliances, and light bulbs
  (compact fluorescent)
• Use alternative energy sources (pos. energy bal)
• Make informed choices
• Don’t freeze in the summer or bake in the winter
   – keep the thermostat reasonable
• UNPLUG! Turn off your TV, and unnecessary lights
  and appliances
   – even “standby” modes use electricity (6 power plants worth per
     year)
• Improve home insulation, insulate your water heater
• Tons more…
   Get involved! Don’t remain happy in silence.
                                                                      37
Standby energy loss
• Some of the biggest                  • 5% of home’s electricity
  energy wasters:                        use
   – adapters for battery-powered
                                       • 65 billion kilowatt-hours /
     electronic devices (cordless
                                         year
     phones, cell phones, digital
     cameras, etc.)
                                       • $5.8 billion annually
   – appliances or electronic
     equipment with standby            • 87 billion pounds of CO2
     capability (such as televisions
     and computer monitors), a
     remote control, or a clock
     (microwaves, DVD players,
     stereos)




                                                                       38
Our voracious appetite for energy
won’t end – we need to switch to
       clean alternatives!


      What are you doing?




                                    39
CO2 concentration after 50
                                                                                        years of unrestricted fossil
                                                                                        fuel burning (600 ppmv)




                                8-12 o
                                Celcius
                                2050

                                                                                           Present CO2
                                                                                           concentration (381
                                                                                           ppmv)




             300

             270
CO2 (ppmv)




             240

             210

             180
 Temp.
 Proxy




                   800         600                           400                           200                         0
                                  Thousands of Years Before Present
                         Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004

                                                                                                                           40
I know it as already
    too late.......

The earth is dying.....



                          41
but at least we can try
    to delay it.......



                          42
For our children and
 probably a few more
generations to come....



                          43
Come and join me....

At least we can tell
 our children that
  we have tried.....

                       44

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Global warming threatens polar bears and humans

  • 1. Global Warning on Global Warming YW Chow 2007 1
  • 2. Since 2000, Polar Bears have been found drowned due to absence of Ice to rest on The Polar Bears are dying And we are next..... No Ice to Live on No Food to Eat 2
  • 3. 3
  • 4. Climate change • For over 30 years, scientists have predicted increased greenhouse gasses that will cause unnatural changes • In 2000: ✓Antarctic sea ice break-ups ✓Antarctic Peninsula warming ✓Arctic sea ice melting ✓11°F Arctic warming ✓Sea level rise ✓Melting of small glaciers and ice caps ✓And more… 4
  • 5. Some Climate change facts • Globe 1°F warmer than 100 yrs ago • Last glacial max. was only 5°F cooler • Not equally distributed • Some areas have warmed 11°F • Winter and night increasing fastest (~5 times faster) • Weather becoming more variable and more severe 5
  • 6. The climate has always changed 6
  • 7. Some consequences • Fastest extinction rate in 65 M years (1000x normal rate) • Increased disease (e.g. asthma, malaria) • Increased poverty and hunger • Sea level rise • More extreme weather • Droughts • Flooding • Heat-waves • Storms 7
  • 9. Global instrumental temperature record 5 Warmest years so far: 1. 2005 2. 1998 (El Niño year) Departures in temperature (°C) from the 1961-1990 average 3. 2002 4. 2003 5. 2004 9
  • 10. 390 2006 380 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 10
  • 12. Reconstructed CO2 concentrations 380 370 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 360 350 Mauna Loa (1958 - present) 340 330 Siple Station (1750 - ) 320 310 300 290 280 270 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 12
  • 13. CO2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) 8-12 o Celcius 2050 Present CO2 concentration (381 ppmv) 300 270 CO2 (ppmv) 240 210 180 Temp. Proxy 800 600 400 200 0 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 13
  • 14. 2xCO2 GFDL model simulations of Surface Air Warming (°F) 4xCO2 Northern hemisphere mid- continent average warming is 15-25°F! ➙ This is a roasted world. 14
  • 15. Signs of climate change • Sea level rise – by thermal expansion AND ice melt • Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic) • Glaciers melting worldwide • Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest • Melting on ice sheets is accelerating • More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, hard freezes, etc.) • Bottom line: – These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs 15
  • 17. Hurricanes are Getting More Severe 120 Number of Hurricanes/Category 100 Cat 1 80 Cat 2-3 60 Cat 4-5 40 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 00-04 Years P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, 2005. 17
  • 18. Cyclones are more destructive 0.4 Atlantic Potential Destructive intensity (PDI) 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 2005 18
  • 19. Numbers of CATEGORY 4 and 5 hurricanes in last two 15 year periods by ocean basin 85 West Pacific 116 24 Indian 57 36 East Pacific 49 10 Southwestern Pacific 22 1975-1989 1990-2004 16 North Atlantic 25 0 30 60 90 120 19
  • 20. In 2004, one in five homes in Florida was damaged by a hurricane. JEAN NE – IVAN – SEPT. 2-24, 2004 SEPT .1 3-28, 2004 CHARLEY – AUG. 9-14, 2004 FRAN CES – AU G. 25 -SEP T. 8, 2004 20
  • 21. 21
  • 22. Katrina Rita Wilma (Aug 28 ’05) (Sep 21 ’05) (Oct 19 ’05) 22
  • 23. Change in global land & ocean surface temperature from the 1961-1990 baseline 5 Warmest years so far: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 Temperature anomaly (°C) 23
  • 24. Glaciers 24
  • 25. Kilimanjaro 2000 1993 25
  • 26. Kilimanjaro 1970 2005 26 26
  • 27. 1978 Qori Kalis glacier 2002 (part of the tropical Quelccaya ice cap, Peru) 27 27
  • 29. Greenland satellite melt record 1992 2002 29 29
  • 31. Sea-level rise • Thermal expansion • Addition of water • Freshening of water • Melting ice sheets – Greenland: 7.4 m (25’) potential – Antarctica: 74 m (250’) potential • West Antarctica (7 m) • East Antarctica (67 m) 31
  • 32. 32
  • 33. Tsunamis 33
  • 34. 34
  • 35. Floods 35
  • 36. What can you do? 36
  • 37. What can you do? • Cut back on consumption (energy, plastics, rich foods) • Plant trees (-20 lbs of CO2 / year) • Drive less / carpool (+25 lbs of CO2 / gallon) • Buy the right CAR, appliances, and light bulbs (compact fluorescent) • Use alternative energy sources (pos. energy bal) • Make informed choices • Don’t freeze in the summer or bake in the winter – keep the thermostat reasonable • UNPLUG! Turn off your TV, and unnecessary lights and appliances – even “standby” modes use electricity (6 power plants worth per year) • Improve home insulation, insulate your water heater • Tons more… Get involved! Don’t remain happy in silence. 37
  • 38. Standby energy loss • Some of the biggest • 5% of home’s electricity energy wasters: use – adapters for battery-powered • 65 billion kilowatt-hours / electronic devices (cordless year phones, cell phones, digital cameras, etc.) • $5.8 billion annually – appliances or electronic equipment with standby • 87 billion pounds of CO2 capability (such as televisions and computer monitors), a remote control, or a clock (microwaves, DVD players, stereos) 38
  • 39. Our voracious appetite for energy won’t end – we need to switch to clean alternatives! What are you doing? 39
  • 40. CO2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) 8-12 o Celcius 2050 Present CO2 concentration (381 ppmv) 300 270 CO2 (ppmv) 240 210 180 Temp. Proxy 800 600 400 200 0 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 40
  • 41. I know it as already too late....... The earth is dying..... 41
  • 42. but at least we can try to delay it....... 42
  • 43. For our children and probably a few more generations to come.... 43
  • 44. Come and join me.... At least we can tell our children that we have tried..... 44