My slightly modified slides for a webinar I delivered March 21, 2015 for the "Global Connectivity Research Institute" related to the question: "What are Deep Strategic Thinking" and Leadership, and how to teach them. The video of the webinar is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKNSu3kgg8U -- Sign up for future GCRI Webinars at http://ThinkingStrategically.net -- Podcasts are also available for download.

1. Thinking about “Thinking”
Edward B. Rockower, Ph.D.
Research Professor, MOVES Institute
The Naval Postgraduate School
Webinar Presented 3/21/15
Global Connectivity Research Institute
(http://www.global-connectivity-research.org)
www.Rockower.net Blog.Rockower.com LinkedIn.com/in/edwardbrockower/
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Caveat Thinkers: These are purely my own personal opinions.
"One head cannot hold all wisdom”
- Maasai, East Africa

2. Organizing Principle(s)
• Want to discuss “Deep Strategic Thinking”
• Implies some immediate questions
– What is “Strategic”?
– What is “Thinking”? (does it include intuition?)
• What are the other “types”?
• How do we know they’re NOT “strategic”?
– Who’s doing the thinking?
– What are they thinking about
 How to approach these questions?
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"The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We
have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift."
-- Albert Einstein

3. Yes, General Clausewitz
but how?
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“War plans cover every aspect of a war, and weave them all into a
single operation that must have a single, ultimate objective in which
all particular aims are reconciled.”
Major General Carl von Clausewitz
On War, viii, 1832, tr. Howard and Paret
“Begin with the end in mind”
-- Stephen Covey
What we’ll discuss:
• Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs)
• System Definition
• What is a “Strategic Thinking Process” along with Methods
and Tools
• Consistent with how we really think

4. Von Clausewitz
… stressed the "moral" (in modern terms, psychological) and
political aspects of war.
His thinking is often described as Hegelian because of his
references to dialectical thinking (cf Taoist Tai Chi )
He stressed the dialectical interaction of diverse factors, noting
how unexpected developments unfolding under the "fog of war"
(i.e., in the face of incomplete, dubious, and often completely
erroneous information and high levels of fear, doubt, and
excitement) call for rapid decisions by alert commanders*.
… he argued that war could not be quantified or reduced to map
work, geometry, and graphs. Clausewitz had many aphorisms, of
which the most famous is "War is the continuation of politics by
other means.
4* cf. “Thin-slicing“: the ability to find patterns in events from "thin slices," or narrow windows, of experience

5. Strategic Thinking per Wikipedia
• “There is no generally accepted definition for strategic thinking, no
common agreement as to its role or importance, and no standardized
list of key competencies of strategic thinkers”
• “major attributes of strategic thinking in practice”
– Systems perspective
– Intent focused i.e. more determined and less distractible (strong “will”)
– Thinking in time means being able to hold past, present and future in
mind at the same time
– Hypothesis driven, ensuring that both creative and critical thinking are
incorporated into strategy making.
– Intelligent opportunism, which means being responsive to good
opportunities. (agile)
•  I would add, as also mentioned in that article*:
“comfortable with dialectical, Hegelian, synthesist, thinking”
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* “The strategist must have a great capacity for both analysis and synthesis” --General Andre Beaufre
“strategic thinking is more about synthesis … than analysis” -- Henry Mintzberg

6. Types of Challenges
• Solving physics problems
– Teaching Univ. MD Physics course in Okinawa
• Creative Thinking
– Preparation, incubation, illumination, verification
– benzene & sewing machine (while dreaming)
– Hadamard’s Book, “The Psychology of Invention in the Mathematical Field”
• Trade Studies (trade-off or decision analysis)
– “Trade Studies: Process , Methods , Tools”
• “Strategic” Issues need “Strategic Thinking”
– Above, plus possible added features:
• “Will”, Cutting the Gordian Knot, “Vision”, personality, Intuition,
much more holistic, executive ability to see the essential features
and ignore the unimportant, synthesist, ++ ?
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"No plan survives contact with the enemy."
-- Helmut von Moltke (legendary Prussian strategist)
“but planning is essential” -- Eisenhower

7. Teaching Physics in Okinawa
• Physics Problem Solving, 1st year College Physics
• Teach most valuable thing: “how I think” when solving Physics problems
• I Never solved the problems before class so they could see my process
• Students asked about difficult problems
• I verbalized my thoughts and process as I wrestled with the problems
(sometimes sweating) in front of the class
• Process always worked (whew!)
– Transform verbal problem statement to symbols, equations and diagrams
– Do NOT try to solve it in my head, nor care if it confuses me
– Apply “methods” of physics, math, calculus, algebra
– Only “tool” was the chalk and blackboard
–  the problem “solved itself”
• Much harder problems in graduate school: I said “what if I were Einstein,
how would I approach this” (it always worked to get me unstuck)
– Cf. current research on “priming” subjects to get different results of experiments
• Above is NOT Strategic Thinking (Why?)
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8. Pragmatic Approach
• From a Practitioner ( I did Trade Studies on F-16 Program)
• Look at some examples, pick them apart
• Next, a training course I developed & taught
-- Lockheed Martin/Space Systems Company, Advanced Technology Center
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“Trade Studies” (aka decision or tradeoff analysis)
Process, Methods, Tools
• Led to my being selected as “Technical Lead” LM Corporate
“Systems Engineering Analysis Fundamentals” (SEAF) Course

9. First, Define a Process
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1. Plan Trade Study
2. Problem Statement
3. System Definition
4. Modeling
5. Data
6. Measures of Effectiveness
7. Analysis of Alternatives
8. Optimization
9. Sensitivity Studies
10. Present Results
Study the science of art and the art of science.
Learn how to see and remember that everything is connected to everything else.
-- Leonardo da Vinci

10. How well does our “System” Perform?
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Cost
weight($)
d($)
Less is better
Performance
weight(P)
d(P)
More is better
Risk
weight(R)
d(R)
Less is better
Schedule
weight(T)
d(T)
Less is better
Measure of Effectiveness
Weighted Arithmetic Mean ("compensation")
Weighted Geometric Mean ("mission critical factors")
a surrogate for a "real" model combining factors
*
* “Notes on Measures of Effectiveness”
-- E. Rockower 1985

11. Hierarchy of MOEs & of “Trades”
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Aggregation
Costs
Uncertainties
LowerFidelitymodels/data
More uncertain
Larger & more Diverse
More “Strategic”?
More quantifiable
& engineered

12. Teams for Trade Studies
• Lower level trades need diverse engineering,
computer, statistics skills
• Higher level Trades need more leadership,
wisdom, vision
• More strategic thinking required?
– Anticipate meta-problems
– Guide wider ranging thinking
– Avoid technique-oriented thinking, promote
“problem-oriented” perspective
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Highly Multidisciplinary

13. Left Brain, Conscious (methods & tools)
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14. Types of Thinking
• Left brain vice Right brain
• Microscopic analysis into black boxes vice Meta
or Macro synthesis of System Architecture
• Conscious vice Unconscious
• Logical vice Intuitive
• Monkey Mind vice “Mindful”
• Organized, compulsive, focused, controlled
vice
day-dreaming, relaxed, Archimedes’ bath (Eureka!), “fuzzy”
• “Dialectic”, Yin/Yang, Synthesis vice “A or NOT A”
– All wisdom is the integration of opposites. Lao Tzu was right!
14“The mind is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master” — Goethe

15. Unconscious Mind Dominates
From the book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Nobel Prize
winning (in Economics!) Psychologist Daniel Kahneman
:
“The picture that emerges from recent research,
the intuitive System 1 (unconscious) is more
influential than your experience tells you, and it is
the secret author of many of the choices and
judgments you make. Most of this book is about the
workings of System 1 (unconscious mind) and the
mutual influences between it and System 2
(conscious mind).”
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"When making a decision of minor importance, I have always found it advantageous to
consider all the pros and cons. In vital matters however ... the decision should come
from the unconscious, from somewhere within ourselves." — Sigmund Freud

16. Aids to Thinking
• Systems Thinking
• Edward de Bono’s 6 hats
• I Ching
• “Master Mind”, Discussions
• Journaling, Doodling, …
• Optimal Chunking
• Transforming to other “space”, variables, perspectives
• Learning to “see” w/o interference of unconscious
assumptions (draw face upside down)
• Large “vocabulary” of words, images, models, tools
– Math, physics, agent-based simulations, complex adaptive
systems, Chaos Theory, OO, top-down-structured, …
• Trusting your Unconscious (but not too much!)
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“Many of the tools of thinking are simply
attention-directing tools.” — de Bono
“Teach Your Child to Think”

17. Mind Map, Art of Thinking
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18. Pitfalls to Thinking
• Trying to prove how smart you are
• Hiding your ignorance
• Acceding to authority’s PoV
• Premature closure
• Staying in your “comfort zone”
– “drunk looking for keys under street light”
• Insisting on holding entire problem in your head
• Being “technique oriented”, not “problem oriented”
• Lack of
• Lack of Systems Thinking
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19. Notional Thinking System
(who’s in charge here?)
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Conscious
(partial control)
Sow
Reap
Sowing = preparation, incubation
Reaping = illumination (eureka), verification
“Monkey
Mind”
Physical Body
Motor
Sensors touch>sight>sound
control
Unconscious
emotions
Sensor &
HumINT
Networks
Computer
Analyses
Data

20. Checks and Balances*
• The “Will” can cut the Gordian Knot (Alexander the Great)
• The Conscious Mind can evaluate logically and “time travel” to the
past and future
– Can intentionally exercise each “type” of thinking
(dialectical/synthesis, critical, creative, systems/holistic, …)
– But is easily overwhelmed and confused by huge amounts of
information and uncertainty
• The Unconscious Mind is possibly 1,000 to 10,000 times as fast as
the conscious mind
– But can intrude thoughts based on false assumptions from emotions
and old memories
– Sometimes sees patterns that aren’t there
 Requires a lot of ability and experience to balance them
 How to do it
 How to teach it?
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* I added “Will” to Nobelist Kahneman’s “useful fiction”

21. “Strategic Thinking, Process, Methods, Tools”?
Crux of the problem: when to use each?
• “Will” has little regard for facts or theories
– “wants what it wants”, “what part of ‘no’ don’t you
understand?” Can ignore details (can be a good thing!)
• Conscious Mind makes mistakes due to being
overwhelmed, slow, unrecognized assumptions &
preferences
• Unconscious Mind makes mistakes from lack of
correct patterns or mis-applying wrong patterns,
being illogical, using inappropriate heuristics
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“Know Thyself” -- Thales of Miletus
(engraved on the façade of the Oracle at Delphi)

22. References
• 1. “The Art of Thinking” a) by Ernest Dimnet b) by Harrison & Bramson c) by Vincent Ruggiero
• 2. “Naval Operations Analysis” 3rd Edition (includes my materials on Measures of Effectiveness)
• 3. “Notes on Measures of Effectiveness” by E. Rockower, 1985.
http://www.rockower.net/articles/MOEs_Rockower.pdf
• 4. “The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn” by Richard W. Hamming, Gordon
and Breach 1997
• 5. “Six Thinking Hats” 2nd Edition by Edward de Bono, Back Bay Books, 1999
• 6. “Teach your child How to Think” by Edward de Bono, Penguin Books 1994
• 7. “Systems Thinking. Applied. A Primer” by Robert Edson, 2008; Asysti.org
http://www.anser.org/asyst http://www.anser.org/docs/systems_thinking_applied.pdf
• 8. “The memorable Thoughts of Socrates” by Xenophon
• 9. “Solitude: A Return to the Self” by Anthony Storr, Ballantine Books; 3rd edition (May 6, 1989)
• 10. “It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer”. – Albert Einstein
• 11. The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently…and Why by
Richard Nisbett
• 12. Intelligence and How to Get It: Why Schools and Cultures Count by Richard Nisbett
• “A Humanistic Art of Thinking, Better” http://blog.rockower.com/humanistic-art-thinking-
better/
• “Thinking, Fast and Slow” Daniel Kahneman Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 2011
• “Blink, the power of thinking without thinking” by Malcolm Gladwell Back Bay Books 2005
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