What's next after the Smartphones war?

1. WEBCONGRESS
PANAMA
edfernandez
@efernandez
What´s Next after The Smartphones War ?

2. Really?
Not so fast…

3. 8 Billion still to go?
You just said the smartphone war was over

4. Diffusion of innovations: Everett Rogers. 1962
World is here
US is there
Smartphone Penetration

5. Source: KPCB internet trends 2014 report. Morgan Stanley Internet report 2009.

6. ap·par·el
/əˈperəl/
Noun US formal
1. Clothing.
synonyms: clothes, clothing, garments, dress, attire, wear, garb, getup
wear·a·ble
/werəb(ə)l/
Noun US formal
1. An item that can be worn.

7. OMsignal: bio-sensing apparel
Heart Rate, Breathing, Steps
We, humans, become the interface Rise of the Natural User Interfaces (NUI)

8. Things get “smartified”
All of Them
Smart contact lens for diabetics
Blood sugar reading in tears 1/sec

9. Mind Reading
Facial expressions: Blink Left wink Right wink Furrow (frown) Raise brow (surprise) Smile Clench teeth (grimace) Glance left Glance right Laugh Smirk (left side) Smirk (right side)
Mental commands: Neutral Any of up to 4 pretrained items from a list of 13 labels:
Push Pull Lift Drop Left Right Rotate clockwise Rotate anticlockwise Rotate forwards Rotate backwards Rotate left Rotate right Disappear
Emotional States: Instantaneous excitement Long term excitement Frustration Engagement Meditation Interest/ Affinity

10. What’s making this possible? 1. Technology Evolution Laws 2. Tech economy driven by Asymmetric Business models

11. Computing capacity Moore’s Law
Computing power doubles every 18-24 months. Costs cut by a half.
Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s
Doubles every 2 years - wired
Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law)
Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law
Doubles every 2 years.
Technology
Evolution
Laws
2yrs
2x /

12. Asymmetric
Business
Models
Android OS is free to foster Google’s mobile services/ads
Apple invests in iTunes & developer ecosystem to foster HW sales
We sign up for web services/apps for free in exchange for personal data
If you’re not paying for it, you are the product

13. ‘Truth’ is a tweet, photo or video
clicked & sent away
New definitions of ‘success’-
money may not be
Access to luxury vs owning luxury –
Rise of sharing economy & EaaS
(Everything as a Service)
Self-realization and self-actualization happens now also online
(Win)^3:
You help me, I help you, we help others
Klout score in your resume
from now onwards
Global thinking, global objectives -
collective intelligence arising (Singularity)
People

14. Entrepreneur generation
•Reduced sense of security since terrorist attacks 2001
•Destabilized economy Financial crisis since 2008
•High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations
•Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or live out of the system
•Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere
•Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey
•All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter, onevest)
•No loss aversion fostering self driven entrepreneurship

15. edfernandez
@efernandez
www.about.me/ed.world
gratefully
KPCB: MaryMeeker, 2014 Internetreport
VisionMobile: MobileMegatrendsreport
Fjord: AnnualTrendsReport2014
JWT: 100ThingsToWatch2014
Horace Dediu Asymco
REFERENCES