PV Market Navigator product presentation

www. PV-Market-Navigator.com
Product Presentation
eclareon Consultants
intelligence@eclareon.com; www.eclareon.com
Berlin, January 30th 2012

Policy Consulting Market Intelligence Strategy Consulting Business Promotion Financial Advisory

PV MARKET NAVIGATOR MARKET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES

The PV Market Navigator allows clients to monitor key emerging PV markets in
an effortless and easy way.
Discover sales opportunities in emerging PV
markets!
Our Country Reports cover licensing & grid connection
processes, feed-in tariffs and other subsidy schemes, as well as
sales market and industry analysis. They are continuously
updated, analytical and well structured PowerPoint presentations
and can be accessed directly through a browser presentation
mode.

Key values
• Easy monitoring of key emerging PV markets
• Continuous updates over the year
• Fast access through online browser presentation
• Subscription model with low membership fees

Framework Analysis Market Analysis Domestic Industry Analysis
• PV Macro Conditions • Market History and Forecast • Sales Channels
• PV Policy Framework • Market Segmentation & Distribution • Domestic Manufacturers
• PV Regulatory Framework • System Price Levels • Domestic Downstream Companies

Source: www.PV-Market-Navigator.com

2

RESEARCH UNIT COMPANY OVERVIEW

eclareon’s Research Unit combines a strong renewable energy background
with the ability to conduct interviews in the national language of all 27 EU
countries.

• The eclareon research unit covers all
administrative languages of the 27 EU
countries

• Researchers are trained and experienced
with a strong renewable energy
background and a special focus on
support schemes and regulations

• The Research Unit is continuously
involved in Federal and EU projects that
require interviews with key stakeholders
all over Europe (RES Legal, PV Legal,
RES Integration)

3

ECLAREON NETWORK COMPANY OVERVIEW

Due to past and ongoing projects, eclareon has access to the latest PV market
data in all main and emerging PV markets in Europe.
Cooperation with Industry Associations on EU
and National Level
Activities
• Data collection on PV markets, support schemes and regulatory
frameworks
• Conjoint work with associations and think tanks in project consortia
• Chairman of the “Export Group Photovoltaics” of the German Solar
Industry Association “BSW Solar”
• Director of ASIF (Spanish PV Association ) - the leading Spanish PV
association
• Member of European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA)

Recent Projects
• PV Legal – Database on administrative processes and barriers
concerning the planning and installation of PV systems
• PV Radar – Continuous collection of information about national and
regional support schemes for PV in all 27 EU Member States
• RES Legal – Database on the support schemes for electricity from
renewable sources

4

ECLAREON NETWORK COMPANY OVERVIEW

eclareon has worked with and for various other organizations from Ministries to
Scientific Institutes and maintains valuable contacts.
Projects with other Organizations (Public Authorities,
Regulators, Scientific Institutes, Energy Agencies, Trade Agencies)

Activities
• Ongoing surveys and interviews with key stakeholders from the above
mentioned organizations in the EU 27 countries
• Ongoing cooperation with the worldwide network of German
Chambers of Commerce in organizing business trips including a
targeted matchmaking with relevant local companies
• Cooperation with a diverse network of German and foreign experts for
information events in Germany and abroad

Recent Projects
• RES Integration – Analyzes of the Member State’s practice and
evaluation of the process of integrating Renewables into the electricity
grid and market
• PV Export Business Trips (in 2011: USA, Portugal, UK, Turkey, South
Africa, Hungary), PV Information Events (in 2011: Australia)
• SolarGuidelines India – The project facilitates the dissemination of
information to project developers, administrative institutions, financial
institutions to ensure timely implementation of solar projects to reach
the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) goals

5

ECLAREON SERVICES COMPANY OVERVIEW

Based on the experience from over 300 assignments to date, eclareon is able to
offer profound support to foreign market development of clients.

Target Market Market Entry Business
Market Research
Definition Strategy Development

Policy • Laws and regulation • Analysis and assessment of market • Extensive network consisting of
• Support schemes
attractiveness regarding political and stakeholders, government
Consulting legal framework institutions, industry
• Grid connection process associations, companies

Market • Market development, segmentation
• Distribution channels, competitive environment
Intelligence
• Assessment of market attractiveness

Strategy • Assessment of potential target markets

Consulting • Development of an individual market entry strategy
• Market cultivation strategies

Business • Workshop, targeted business and delegation
trips, road show, matchmaking
Promotion • Identification of project business opportunities

Financial • M&A consulting
Advisory • Project due diligence
• Consulting regarding project finance

6

CONTACT MARKET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES

Kai Malkwitz
Sales Director, PV Market Navigator
Kai is a senior manager in the PV industry. He created the world's leading
photovoltaic marketplace pvXchange and was General Manager from 2004 to
2012. Kai established pvXchange's market research as an industry standard for
price analysis, price and market forecast, which has been adopted by various
stakeholders such as manufacturers, banks, magazines and newspapers as well
as major consultancies.
Kai is now active as entrepreneur and consultant in the photovoltaic industry.

eclareon GmbH www.PV-Market-Navigator.com
Luisenstr. 41 Phone: +49 30 258 990 43
10117 Berlin Fax: +49 30 246 286 94
Germany eMail: km@eclareon.com
www.eclareon.com

7

eclareon Market Intelligence
Country Profile Greece
Exemplary Version

Christian Grundner
eclareon Management Consultants
Berlin, May 2011


AGENDA

Agenda
• PV Framework – Natural Conditions, Economic and PV Indicator’s

• PV Support and Regulation – Support Schemes, Administrative Process and Grid Connection

• PV Sales Market – Volume, Segmentation, Regional Distribution, PV Prices, Drivers and Barriers

• Domestic PV Industry – Distribution Channels, Leading Domestic Companies

9

AGENDA

Agenda
PV Framework
• Natural Conditions

• Economic Indicators

• Energy and Electricity Sector

• Overview on PV Indicators

PV Support and Regulation

PV Sales Market

Domestic PV Industry

10

SOLAR IRRADIATION FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

Especially southern and central Greece offers very favorable solar irradiation
levels for PV installations.

Average energy yield
Climatic Region
(in kWh/kWp)

Northern Greece 1100 – 1300

Central Greece 1200 – 1400

Southern Greece
1400 – 1600
(Islands)

Germany 850

Source: JRC European Commission PVGIS (05/2011)

11

NATURAL CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The plain regions east of the Pindus mountain range with dry climate are most
suitable for PV applications. In addition, the vast number of islands allow for
broad application of off-grid installations.

Topography
• Greece primarily has a Mediterranean climate, featuring
mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers. This climate
occurs at all coastal locations, including Athens, the
Cyclades, the Dodecanese, Crete, the Peloponnese
and parts of the Central Continental Greece. The
Pindus mountain range strongly affects the climate of
the country, as areas to the west of the range are
considerably wetter on average (due to greater
exposure to south-westerly systems bringing in
moisture) than the areas lying to the east of the range
(due to a rain shadow effect).
• Greece features a vast number of islands, between
1200 and 6000, depending on the definition,227 of
which are inhabited. Crete is the largest and most
populous, Euboea, separated from the mainland by the
60m-wide Euripus Strait, is the second largest island,
followed by Rhodes and Lesbos.
• Expansive plains are primarily located in the
prefectures of Thessaly, Central Macedonia and
Thrace. They constitute key economic regions as they
are among the few arable places in the country.

Source: eclareon Intelligence (05/2011)

12

ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

Despite rigorous government budget cuts, a credit default of Greece is still
likely. While this would negatively impact the PV market, the recent overhaul of
the administration might have a positive impact on PV regulations in future.

Administrative divisions
• From 1 January 2011, in accordance with the Kallikratis plan
(Law 3852/2010), the administrative system of Greece was
drastically overhauled. The former system of 13 peripheries,
54 prefectures and 1033 municipalities and communities was
replaced by 7 decentralized administrations, 13 peripheries
and 325 municipalities. The peripheries and municipalities
are fully self-governed. The decentralized administrations are
run by a general secretary appointed by the Greek
Government.

Economic Crisis
• On 15 November 2010, the EU's statistics body Eurostat
revised the public finance and debt figure for Greece following
an excessive deficit procedure methodological mission in
Athens and put Greece's 2009 government deficit at 15.4% of
Key country indicators
GDP and government debt at 126.8% of GDP making it the
• Population (2010e): 11,305,118 biggest deficit (as a percentage of GDP) amongst the EU
• GDP Total (PPP, 2010e): Total $329.113 billion / Per capita $29,419 member nations.
• GDP Growth (2010): - 4,2 % • On 25 July 2011, Moody's downgraded Greece's credit rating
• Inflation (2010): 4,7% due to an increased risk of default, raising the likelihood that
• Unemployment (12/2010): 14.1% the country may have to restructure its debt. The current
classification is as the lowest junkbond.

Source: Eurostat (05/2011)

13

ENERGY CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The grid network is fairly developed but still missing greater connections
between the mainland and the island. Therefore off-grid solutions are still
welcome in those regions.

Grid structure
• Weak connections to peripheral areas
• Main development in the surrounding of Athens and north area
• Part of the mainland grid is still not strong enough to support
great expansion of installed capacity
• New investments suspended due to cut back in the general
country budgets

Grid operator
• The national grid operator mainland is PPC
• Stated-owned company not privatized yet
• The company acts also as energy provider with own facilities
• The company hinders the connection of new PV energy
production sites
• The company has several internal issues and corruption
accusations


14

ELECTRICITY CONDITIONS FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The impact of electricity sector deregulation and increasing utility rates also
favors the attractiveness of PV for investors.

Key characteristics & trends Implications for PV sector
• Greece is lagging behind deregulation of • PV sector is still heavily determined by public
electricity market – strong pressure from EU to authorities& former monopolists (PPC & Co) –
move forward the regulatory framework is & will be the main
• Privatisation has led to independent regulator market barrier in the next years
(RAE), unbundling & privatisation of public • PV is already in the focus of utilities & large
utility (PPC), as well as favourable regulations electricity project promoters (e.g. wind), mainly
for independent power producers interested in large projects
• Still strong concentration of electricity • PPC has set up renewable subsidiary to invest
production, production and distribution in in wind, PV & Co (50 MW project planned)
hands of former monopolists (PPC). themselves
• After the last budget rescue coming from the EU, • It also yet builds obstacles for PV promotors in
a new wave of privatization, concerning also the providing grid connection, especially for large
electrical sector, is expected and required. competitors (many complaints to regulator RAE
• Grid infrastructure split in various regional pending)
power networks


15

ENERGY PRICES FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

Electricity prices for private and industrial consumers are below EU27 average
and where stable over the past years.

0.25 0.25 0.23
0.24
Germany
0.21

0.20 0.20
0.16 0.17
0.15 0.15
0.16 EU27
0.15 0.14
0.13
Germany 0.15
0.13
0.11 EU27 0.12 0.12
0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Greece
0.10 0.09 Greece 0.10

0.05 0.05

07H2 08H1 08H2 09H1 09H2 10H1 07H2 08H1 08H2 09H1 09S2 10H1

Electricity Price Industrial Consumer Electricity Price Private Consumer
All Tax and VAT included All Tax and VAT included
500 MWh<Consumption< 2 000 MWh 2 500 kWh<Consumption< 5 000 kWh

Source: Eurostat 05/2011

16

ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

Since the EU and the IMF bailed out Greece in 2010, the economical situation is
remains highly uncertain. However, PV investments are still attractive (high
IRR) due to the political support of the RES development.
Overview:
IRR forecast till 2015. From 2015 onward no clear policy
defined yet, therefore hard to predict accurately • PV Market in Greece with high profitability
rates, but depending on the subsidy
Not Grid-connected island less 100 KW
concession

• The IRR would vary heavily if the subsidy is
Grid-connected less100 KW not endorsed

Not Grid-connected island over 100 Kw
• The island and small roof-top markets assure
a better profitability than the big ground
mounted parks

Grid-connected over 100 Kw • Nevertheless in any case, the general
perspective rely upon the governments
attitude towards future subsides

• To match profitability with a non-subsidy
Assumptions: scenario, cost have to fall dramatically 2015
• 25 % of capital equity, 40 % of subsidy onwards.

• Rest coming from private loans
• In case the investment cost does not fall
• 15 years of loan duration drastically, projects in the Greek market from
• Project costs: 5700 € / kW 2015 and onwards will not be profitable.

Source: eclareonIntelligence (05/2011)

17

AGENDA

Agenda
PV Framework

• Support scheme

• Administrative process

• Grid connection process

PV Sales Market


18

PV SUPPORT SCHEME FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The feed-in tariff in Greece remains quite positive for further investments
despite the economical downturn.

Feed-in Tariff system Rooftop
Mainland grid
(€/MWh)
• The system clearly favours the Rooftop system,
Year of signing the Systems < Autonomous island grids
Month
which have the higher purchase price and payment contract 10 KWp >10kWp (€/MWh)
(€/MWh) > 100 Kwp < 100 kWp
time.
• Nevertheless, the conditions for long ground
mounted parks are also really favourable and
2009 400 450 450
attractive for investments
• In the islands the future seems promising for off-
grid solutions with attractive tariffs in the close 2010 550 392,04 441,05 441,05
August
future.
• Furthermore, the system includes also an inflation February 372,83 419,43 419,43
2011
correction covering the 25% percent of previous August 351,01 394,88 394,88
year inflation. 333,81 375,53 375,53
• Time Horizon of minimum 20 years, maximum 25 2012 522,5
February

years. August 314,27 353,56 353,56
February 298,38 336,23 336,23
2013 496,38
281,38 316,55 316,55
Investment support August
268,94 302,56 302,56
• The Greek government seeks promoting RES 2014 471,56
February
insofar achieving energetic independence of August 260,97 293,59 293,59
imported oil and gas
• To do so, the National Developmental Law was set Tariff Payment 25 years
into force 20 Years
• Attractive subsidy program for PV projects, with
still complicate burocratical process. Inflation adjustment Adjusted partially ( 25% of last year´s Consumer´s Price Index ) annually
• In the past source of bottleneck, it triggered the
pop-up of a second market in which preliminary
stage projects are sold to further or more capable Other incentives
The residential PV system is no longer considered a business activity, thereby the
investors. income from the electricity sale is tax free.


19

SUBSIDY SCHEMES FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

At the moment the grants by the Ministry of Economics to commercial investors
are drawing most attention – and at the same time create a bottleneck.

Investment law 3522/06 TEMPTE - ETEAN Fiscal incentives FO.S Program

Cheap loans for small Tax free for private Higher FIT, no tax on
Type of support Investment grants (among
investors and household business activities,
scheme other incentives)
consumers installations private loan facilities

Investment law in place In place since 09/2006,
Investment law in Law 3734/2009 (article
Start / duration since 01/2009, active till deadline for
place since 01/2009 27A), till 12/2015
31/12/2030 applications 31/8/2011

Commercial Investors in Private investors
Projects > € 100.000,- Small & medium Householders
Beneficiaries Only PV off-grid
Maximum of 2 MW installed entreprises (SME) Small business
power. systems

20- 40% of investment cost Max. 20% of No initial subsidy
Level of support Max. 6% of interest rate
(depending on region & investment cost Long term contract
(max. amount) Max. loan € 300.000
system type) Max. € 700,- Only in mainland
Authority in charge Economics Ministry& ETEAN, Company Fiscal authorities
of application regional authorities responsible for the Fiscal authorities
process (depending on size) TEMPTE found Commercial banks

Open, but amount of
Current state / applications already Open, depending on
Open and applicable Open and applicable
outlook exceeding bureaucratic collateral local bank.
capacity

Assessment
of relevance High Low High Medium
Source: New renewable energy action plan 2011, eclareon Intelligence ( 05/2011)

20

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

The administrative process has been amended in 2009 but it is still overcome
with some serious bottlenecks

Main administrative steps for PV projects > 20 kW in Greece
Environmen- Grid
Electricity Installation &
Phase tal permit Building connection &
production operation
(&other permit feed-in
license (EPL) licenses
approvals) contract (PPA)

Regulator RAE Region Municipality Utilities Region
Authority in
(Development (Environmental (e.g. Building (DESMIE/DIE (Planning
charge : Ministry) Dept & others) Dept.) & PPC) Dept.)

• Only for roof-top • Preliminary • No full-grown • Grid-connection • Application of
Main environmental building permit, but application to installation
projects over 1 MW
administrative
• In every case for
assessment formal approval DESMIE or PPC licence
steps: ground-mounted • Final approval required • Feed-in-contract • Application of
facilities • Further approvals • Special with DESMIE or operation
in special zones requirements in PPC license before
(historic, nature, special zones & commissioning
etc.) constructions (e.g.
transformer house)
Critical • Huge barrier due • High barrier due • Considerable • Considerable • Currently no big
assessment / to RAE to lack of clarity barrier due to lack barrier (esp. issue yet, since
potential overcharge • Clarification of of clarity & PPC) most projects
changes • Clearly favours requirements by diversity on • PPC is a direct stuck in EPL
small projects Environmental municipal level competitor with
Ministry own project
expected development

Source : eclareonIntelligence (05/2011)

21


The administrative procedure is still rather complicated but it shows huge
differences according to the size and location of the installation
Administrative procedure for roof-top installations:

Steps Less than 10 Kw 10 to 100 Kw 100 to 1000 kW Over 1 MW

Apply to the local utility office Apply to the local utility office Get a small works permit from Apply to the Regulatory
1 for grid connection and sign a for grid connection the local Urban Planning office Authority for Energy (RAE) for
contract for selling electricity a Production License
to the grid

Sign a contract with the Apply to the local utility office Once Production License is
2 System Operator (DESMIE) for for grid connection acquired, apply to the Region
selling electricity to the grid for an Installation License

Sign a contract with the Get a small works permit from
3 System Operator (DESMIE) for the local Urban Planning office
selling electricity to the grid

Apply to the System Operator
4 Projects under 4 steps usually completed between (DESMIE) for grid connection

6 and 12 months.
Sign a contract with the
5 System Operator (DESMIE) for
Projects over 4 steps usually requires around 18 selling electricity to the grid

months Apply to the Region for an
6 Operation License

Source: Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (05/2011)

22


In the case of ground-mounted parks, the procedure is in any case more
complicated
Administrative procedure for Ground-mounted installations:

Steps Less than 500 KW 500 KW to 1000 KW Over 1 MW

Apply to the Region for an exemption from environmental Apply to the Regulatory Authority
Apply to the Region for an
1 permitting (or apply for an environmental permit if needed
– usually only for protected areas)
environmental permit
for Energy (RAE) for a Production
License

Once Production License is
Get a small works permit from the local Urban Planning Get a small works permit from the acquired, apply to the Region for
2 office local Urban Planning office an Installation License (includes
environmental permit)

Apply to the local (<100 kWp) or regional (>100 kWp) utility Apply to the regional utility office Get a small works permit from the
3 office for grid connection for grid connection local Urban Planning office

Sign a contract with the System
Sign a contract with the System Operator (DESMIE) for Apply to the System Operator
4 selling electricity to the grid
Operator (DESMIE) for selling
electricity to the grid
(DESMIE) for grid connection

Sign a contract with the System
5 Operator (DESMIE) for selling
electricity to the grid
Projects for ground-mounted park requires time-
windows of around 18 and 24 months. Apply to the Region for an
6 Operation License

Source: Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (05/2011)

23

AGENDA

Agenda
PV Framework


PV Sales Market
• Market Volume and Segmentation

• PV Prices

• Drivers and Barriers


24

MARKET HISTORY MARKET ANALYSIS

The new legislation applied to the Greek market has produced clear results and
the market has reached the pre-steady state, thought better administrative
perspectives can help in the near future
Market monitoring (figures, data sources)
205
• Lack of reliable, up-to-date data
• Company figures published by Aleo Solar (150 MW
whole market in 2010)

150
• Sales statistics based on company surveys by
EMBRYONIC STAGE START-UP STAGE Helapco (not 100% reliable)
Market history until 2006 – embryonic stage
Annual installed • The photovoltaic market was practically inexistent,
only supported by the boom of the mobile network
Cumulative
In MWp development
• Very few grid-tied plants < 100 kW
55 • No larger projects > 150 kW whatsoever

37
• Nevertheless, broad market regarding solar thermal
applications, present since the 80´s
19
7 8 10 Current market development since 2007 –
1 2
start-up stage
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • High demand created by new FiT (licensing
applications) since 2006
Old FiT CurrentFiT
• 2010 witnessed the resolution of the first
administrative bottleneck
OPE subsidy scheme Investment Law
• Main interest on medium-to-large projects, while
small residential market < 20 kW is due to bloom in
the next step

Source: Helapco, eclareonIntelligence (05/2011)

25

MARKET SEGMENTATION MARKET ANALYSIS

The different regions show different dynamics according to the different FiT
rates to be applied as well as grid connection issues and the PPA contracts
with PPC. 39.1
36.1 36.6

30.6

in MW
20.3
16.8
12.6
8.3

3.0 2.8
0.1 0.0
Attica Central Central Eastern Epirus Ionian Peloponnese South Thessalia Thessaloniki Western Western
Greece Macedonia Macedonia Islands Aegean Greece Macedonia
and Thrace

Regional Distribution
• So far the biggest expansion of PV installations can be seen in the central regions
• Those regions have remarkable industrial presence thus the grid is stronger
• In the past the government has shown increased attention towards these industrial areas
• The islands are still in the early stage of development but stronger growth is expected for the near future
• So far the government has made no announcement about geographical caps, although in practice the local grid and especially the island
connection can be a bottleneck

Source: DEMIE gridoperator, eclareonintelligence (05/2011))

26

MARKET SEGMENTATION MARKET ANALYSIS

The medium to very large ground mounted park still prevails in the market,
though other sectors are becoming larger, like rooftop, thanks to the new
governmental policy

96
Market Segmentation
• Dominant market segment between 20 and
150 kW. Among this group, the leading role is
taken by small-scale plants

• Large scale solar parks quite large segment
due to higher profitability with old FIT

More attractive FiT
47 • Tendency moving slowly towards smaller
over the coming years 39 scale, target group for the new FIT policy

• Off-grid installations with the best FIT are
Installed expected to grow exponential in the near
21 capacity future
in MW
7 7

Off-grid Rooftop PV < 20 < PV < 150 KW PV >
< 20 KW 20 kw 150 KW < PV < 2 MW
2 MW

Source: DEMIE, eclareonIntelligence (05/2011)

27

MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS MARKET ANALYSIS

The regulatory framework is the main barrier for growth at the moment. The
bottleneck from 2009 is being solved, but still the administrative procedure is
enormously time-consuming.
Framework conditions

Key driver or barrier Assessment of current state Assessment of future
(volume setting factor) 2011 development 2012-2015

• Political market caps • Diffuse market caps not clearly • Might be completely cancelled
announced, and not reached in in the future
the current situation

• Attractiveness of PV investments • No limiting factor, but main • No limiting factor, but driver
determined by public support market driver (very high also in the future (PV will stay
schemes, interest rates, utility attractiveness leading to attractive enough to fuel
rates, etc. explosive demand) demand)
• Reliability of the governmental • IMF and EU bailed out the country • Risk premium certainly high
frame and political perspectives in 2010 to avoid an official nowadays, can deter credit
bankruptcy. concession on international
• Environmental assessment and context
• Regulatory barriers (licensing,
grid connection extremely hard to • The last law introduced
subsidy process, etc.), esp. for
achieve, main barrier due to time changes, but there is no
large projects > 1 MW
consumption predictable effect to be seen

• Insufficient grid infrastructure to • Limiting factor in some peripheral • May turn out to be limiting
support PV installations regions factor in more and more
regions

Source: eclareonintelligence (05/2011)

28


Thanks to the governmental efforts, corruption is being shortened. Nevertheless,
local networking is the keystone for success.

Market conditions (demand side)


• Electricity demand incl. need • No limiting factor, neither market • No limiting factor, possibly even
for alternative solutions driver (increasing slowly due to market driver in the future
economical turndown) (increasing demand)
• Speculation, corruption & low • Certainly limiting factor, but not • It is unlikely that speculation and
quality leading to high prices & decisive for current market growth especially corruption can be
deterring of serious investors overcome since it is part of the
Greek society
• Customer awareness & • Serves as a driver, although
• Customer awareness will
willingness to buy - takes time divergence between general interest
increase but the question is
& serious investment stance)
whether Greek households will
have the money to invest in PV

• Market momentum (once a • Market driver thanks to considerable • Future market development will
market has reached a critical investments of the PV industry since be strongly influenced by a
mass / relevance it cannot 2008, more than 700 MW already possible dept default that would
break down in the short term commissioned in the pipeline most likely influence the feed-in
tariff and further deter investors
Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2011)

29


The industry is catching up faster and several local players have joint
operations with international brands, producing an almost mature industry able
to cope with current demand.
Industry conditions

• Professional supply • Used to be a limiting factor, but • Due to high efforts of PV industry,
structures & know-how, esp. the growth of the market has they will be quite competitive in
by installers and generally for stimulated competence and the near future
larger-scale projects > 100 kW companies accumulate • Eventually can become a major
experience market driver

• The supply is enough, specially • Will be no limiting factor in the
• Supply shortages, esp. for since other major markets like future due to easing supply
modules Spain or Germany are in an in situation for modules
pass right now. Can be consider • Potential over supply situation on
a limited market driver global scale may even turn out to
be a driver (high availability of
cheap modules for Greek market)


30

MARKET FORECAST MARKET ANALYSIS

The four main market segments show very different dynamics.

Off grid < 20 kW 20 -150 kW 150 – 2.000 kW > 2MW

• Until 2007 majority • Segment was badly • Clearly the main • Immense pipeline of • Already over 40 MW
of new installations hurt by the market so far, projects (700 MW installed
(> 1 MW p.a.) administrative especially projects already with PPA • Several big utilities
barrier present in the just below 100 kW according to has announced more
• However, demand old law. Since 2010 due to FiT structure DEMIE); most < 1 projects in the field
Status “wiped away” by situation has MWp, though bigger • The FiT does not
former FiT law changed projects are already ease this group
dramatically and a operational specially
new tendency can be
witnessed
• Specially important
the rooftop market

• Big growth forecast • Expected to develop • Very good prospects • Good prospects in • Moderate perspective
due to the new FIT from 2011 on in the already in the short- medium term (> 30% in the short term,
applied to wake of new special term (> 30-40% share) Greece enjoys
autonomous island regulations, which market share), • Perspectives in the extremely high sun
grids considers no more specially in the long term are not so radiation which
Prospects • Exports to the small market under 100 positive, as the market favours scale
neighbour countries installations as KW will reach a grid- installations
taxable business. overload. • The grid development
High market share, and the PPC attitude
over 30% expected will be crucial


31

MARKET FORECAST MARKET ANALYSIS

The Greek market offers really promising opportunities regarding the radiation
and legal frame. Nevertheless, the general economics situation seems really
worrying for the future

Cumulative capacity in MW Market perspectives
2,400
• The law ensures promising perspectives, combining
attractive FiT with highest radiation levels in Europe.
2,000 NREAP
• The industry is taking off and maturing, giving a supply
Forecast side well prepared for a steady market
1,600 • The general economical frame is at the utmost concern
• However, credits and loans for new PV installations are
not threatened so far.
1,200
• It is expected a big bloom in demand, companies
involved in the field yearning still plenty MWs of large
solar parks.
800 700
• In the fist semester 2011, 50 MW have been already
500 installed.
400 • The government recognizes an official pipeline of more
206 than 700 MW projects already awarded with an official
PPA.
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average yearly installed capacity is estimated to reach
around 200 to 300 MW

Source: New Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010, eclareon intelligence (05/2011)

32

AGENDA

Agenda
PV Framework


PV Sales Market


33

RETAIL BUSINESS PV INDUSTRY

The small segment of the market is dominated by small size companies with a
long trajectory on the Greek Market, who usually use German manufacturers

PV distribution value chain (components
& kits for small systems)

Manufacturers

Wholesalers/ Rooftop Final
distributors client
installations
Installers /
contractors Standard
plants
Dominant channels for standard modules by manufacturers:

2-TIER- Conergy Greece
Conergy
DISTRIBUTION Small investors
(by manufacturers) Aleo Solar Seners

3-TIER-
DISTRIBUTION Heliosphera
Photovoltaic Local contractors
(via solar Solon
wholesalers) Data Energy Solar Cocoon Solar Small investors
Silcio
DentaTexnik Alexakis Energy
Aleo Solar


34

PROJECT BUSINESS PV INDUSTRY

The big solar parks are a target for many local manufacturers, who are
establishing their subsidiaries EPC for the sake of it.

PV distribution value chain (components
& kits for big systems)

Manufacturers

EPC contractors
Final
client
Installers /
Contractors/ Standard
(often only sub-contracted) Project plants
developers
Dominant channels for standard modules by manufacturers:

2-TIER- RENI
Exel
DISTRIBUTION
(by manufacturers) Solar Cell Hellas Solarice Investors
Aleo Solar RSEnergy

3-TIER- Heliosphera
DISTRIBUTION Activus
(via EPC Solon Local contractors
Advartia
contractos) Silcio Small investors
Photovoltaic
Prime Energy
Aleo Solar Data Energy
Biosar
Schüco

Source: eclareon Interviews (05/2011)

35

UP / MID STREAM INDUSTRY PV INDUSTRY

Today 5 upstream module manufacturers are based in Greece. The factories are
brand new and they are seeking cover local demand and increase presence in
foreign markets
• Silicon / ingot / wafer manufacturers

Current Location
• Since 2009 two full operative wafer
Company Products Technology manufacturers in Greece
capacity 2011 (region)

• Cell / module manufacturers
PV modules
• c-Si • Until 2007 only Energy Solutions with
Exel Solar 75 MWp Kilkis
Mounting
Systems
• Poly-Si operations in Bulgaria
• Since 2009 5 new projects known with
PV thin film • a-Si local production
HelioSphera 65 MWp Tripolis
Modules • µc-Si • According to Invest Agency, many
foreign manufacturers will set up sites
Wafers to serve the Greek market. So far, only
Silcio Cells • Poly c-Si Around 30 MW Maroussi foreign capital has arrived, but not
PV modules
manufacturers themselves

Wafers “By 2010 certainly a large part of domestic
Solar Cells Cells • Poly c-Si 110 MW Athens
demand, as well as in our neighbour
PV modules
countries will be served from Greek
production sites (150-170 MW in total, of
Solar collectors • Poly c-Si which 50-70 MW by Greek ventures”
Stibetherm n. a. Kilkis
C. Protogeropoulos (Solar Cells)
PV Modules

Source: eclareoninterviews (05/2011)

36

DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRY PV INDUSTRY

The markets enjoys already a overspread capillarity with an abundant number
of local EPC and small local installers, while several foreign companies are
moving in. Nevertheless, the wholesale function is carried out mainly by
German companies Player groups
Player groups • Since many years Conergy Greece was a clear leader in the small segment, with
Important players the presence also of local contractors like Photovoltaiks or Seners (first purely
(system
(operations in Greece) Greek company)
integrators) • Most Greek players mainly so far focus on contracting / engineering rather than
• Photovoltaiks real wholesaling
• Helio Systems • Many new players have entered the arena since the 2009 much more positive
• DATA Sun Energy legislation
Solar specialists • Activus Market entry strategies of newcomers
• Advartis • Due to lack of professional local firms “go alone” approach is the typical option
(system integrators)
• DentaTexnik (exception Conergy)

• Seners • Most have established sales offices or subsidiaries since 2007, usually with
local personnel (4-5 people)
• Abakus Solar • The local firms have learned and are using the know-how of foreign companies
trough trainee programs
Foreign PV players • ConergyGreece • Due to the administrative complexity of the Mediterranean style, a local partner
(system integrators /
developers,
• Sibetherm is almost at every occasion needed.
investors)
• Aleo Solar, Solon Commercial strategies & structures
• All large SI plan to serve small retail (as system supplier) & large project
• Building / construction / business (as contractor) alike
Newcomers from heavy industries: • All have supply agreement with 3+ leading manufacturers (modules & other
adjacent industries • RSEnergy components) to provide complete portfolio
(utilities, building, • Solarice • All plan to develop reseller networks across the country (trainings, etc.) – some
construction, • PPC Greek players use existing structures from adjacent industries
wholesale) • Biosar “If you ask me, eventually the Greek market requires not more than 5-6 country wide
• Prime Energy wholesalers / system integrators. And the Germans know this business best.” CEO,
Biosar


37

UTILITIES PV INDUSTRY

PPC Renewables is the only utility so far being active in the photovoltaic field.
Though few projects are already finished, a pipeline over 50 MW is already
comisioned
• The Greek electricity sector is under pressure & undergoing dramatic changes:
- PPC has lost its monopoly and is heavily criticized for failing to meet requirements resulting from
soaring energy demand
- Indeed, the monopoly is still hold by PPC and the government receives constant critics about
further liberalization
- The crisis has stopped any further privatization so far, but a close debt restructuring can change
future perspective dramatically
- Huge investments are required to increase both grid infrastructure & production facilities –
impossible for incumbent Greek players to handle this challenge alone.
- A lot of new entrants competing with PPC, both foreign utilities (Endesa, Iberdrola, EDF, RWE,
etc.) and Greek groups apply for licenses for power plants incl. PV – some already appear in RAE
licensing statistics
- PV firms are keen on securing contracting jobs from those big investors (call for tenders)

• Many rumors about PV activities of utilities:
- PPC Renewable & others are investing in RES projects esp. wind – 62 MW are already operational
and 32 are being built
- German utilities have announced to invest in big PV projects in Southern Europe incl. Greece.
- Several big EPC’s announced projects fall out of the scheme as the licensing process deter many
competitors
- “Undercover” activities by foreign utilities like Iberdrola (securing land/sites, etc.);

38

AGENDA

Agenda
Framework analysis - key characteristics & trends

Market analysis – segmentation & growth

Competitive analysis – industry structure

Company analysis – domestic PV companies in Greece (18 profiles)
• Module Manufacturers

• System integrators and EPC contractors

• Project developer

39

EXEL SOLAR GREEK MANUFACTURERS

Excel Solar is a new manufacturer with a strong marketing performance,
ambitious goals and large trajectory in close business fields.
Company background and history
• The group was founded in 2001 with the aim of gaining a wining
position in the renewable energy field, coming from the steal
sector
• It has an integral structure covering the whole supply chain, from
the module manufacturer till the EPC contractor

Business model and service lines
• 2 different modern plants: one focus on module manufacturing
and the other on mounting systems
• Bioclimatic plant, state-of-the-art technology to endorse high
quality standards and full working warranties

Ind.AreaStavrochori • Broad plan capacity, around 75 MW per year
B.S 20, Street 12
61100 Kilkis Market segment target
Τel: +00302341072206 • The module manufacturer offers modules to every level of the
Fax:+00302341071526 industry

http://www.exelgroup.gr
• The mounting systems plant focus on large scaled mounted park
structures
• Active export policy towards new markets, for instance Italy

Performance & references
• Several projects already completed
• Aiming to be working at full capacity during 2011


40

HELIOSPHERA GREEK MANUFACTURERS

Heliosphera was one of the pioneers in the Greek module manufacturing market
and nowadays has a strong international projection

• Founded in 2007, the factory began production in 2009
• Main shareholders from the USA
• Nowadays more than 180 workers and collaboration R&D
programs with Greek universities


• Biggest European manufacturer of micromorph thin film
modules
• New factory with 60 MW annual production capacity
• The chain manufacturer provider was Oerlikon Solar, reputed
Swiss Producer
Industrial Zone of Tripolis
Building Block 8, Street 5 Market segment target
Tripolis, 22100
Tel: +30 2710 230860 • The aim of the company is to have a leading position in Europe
Fax: +30 2710 230869 in the micromorph segment.
www.heliosphera.com • The achieve it, they are developing a strategic alliance network
around Europe
• The biggest market for the company nowadays is Italy


• More than 10 MW already installed.
• Big pipeline announced with projects all over Europe


41

SILCIO GREEK MANUFACTURERS

Silcio is the technological reference in the Greek manufacturer sector with an
impressive new plant and excellent quality standards

• Main shareholders from Greece
• The company group is active in the energy field since 1997,
being the new factory the latest spin-off

• One of the few Greek integral manufacturer, from the wafer till
the mounting system.
• The main products are polycrystalline silicon wafers, PV cells
and PV modules.
• New factory with different production capacity:
Wafers: 45 MW
38-40 KapodistriouAv, Cells: 31 MW
15123 Maroussi, Athens PV Modules: 19 MW
Tel : +30 210 6101150 Market segment target
Fax: +30 210 6838215
www.silcio.gr • The aim of the company is to lead the technological
breakthrough in the Greek market
• The export ratio of the company is growing, not being limited to
the national range


• Several MW already installed


42

SOLAR CELL HELLAS GREEK MANUFACTURERS

Solar Cell Hellas has develop a broad company group and nowadays has the
biggest annual production of the Greek market.
• Several production sites with more then 300 working force

• Biggest Greek producer, with an installed capacity for PV
modules over 110 MW
• One of the few Greek integral manufacturer, from the wafer till
the mounting system.
• The main products are multi-crystalline silicon wafers, PV cells
and PV modules.
• New factory with different production capacity:
Wafers: 60 MW
Cells: 60 MW
170, Sygrou Avenue PV Modules: 110 MW
17671 Athens
Tel: +30 210 9595 159 Market segment target
Fax: + 30 210 9537 618 • The aim of the company is to be the first vertical integrated
www.schellas.gr producer for the southern European market
• The company has a company group covering the whole
production chain, with an EPC & OM division providing with
turnkey solutions and consultancy services

• Several MW already installed
• Contracts with different partners for future cells supply


43

STIBETHERM GREEK MANUFACTURERS

Stibetherm is a year-long established company, spin-off from the German
same-named group. From thermal applications they include now also modules
in their portfolio Company background and history
• Founded in 1974, the company worked at the beginning as sales
distributor of the mother German group
• Main shareholders from Germany
• The introduce solar thermal solutions, a market they lead, and
recently began with the production of PV modules

• Clear dominance in the solar thermal application solutions
• Reputed name in the whole country, introducing a broad used
technology in Greece
• Own factory and also sales serving chain to cover the whole
spectrum

Industrial Area Kilkis Market segment target
61100 Kilkis • The aim of the company is to provide with hybrid solutions, solar
Tel.: +30 2341071380 thermal plus photovoltaic.
Fax: +302341071386 • The company has a strong international presence thanks to the
www.stibetherm.com mother German group
• Expansion strategy to grow in the PV solution area, potential
partners searched.


• Thousands of solar thermal projects installed
• Brand new presence in the PV


44

DISCLAIMER

Content

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date. Liability claims against eclareon in respect of material or immaterial damage caused by the
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liable for illegal, incorrect or incomplete content or in particular for damages arising from the use or
non-use of the information provided on linked sites.

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infringement of copyright should occur, eclareon will after notification remove the relevant object
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DISCLAIMER

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