2013 workshop, Climate Change Connections to Our Weather, Environment, & Health at the 13th Annual K12 Summer Institute sponsored by Texas A&M in Houston.
"I see eyes in my soup": How Delivery Hero implemented the safety system for ...
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and Health
1. Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu
Lisa Gardiner, lisagard@ucar.eduWelcome!
Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013
Climate Change Connections
to our Weather,
Environment, & Health
2. What do you know and
want to know & learn
about climate change?
A review of our KWL Chart,
Climate Survey
3. • To address your needs
• To foster confidence
• To present meaningful classroom-ready activities
• To foster helpful discussions
• To have fun and learn from one another
Our Goals for Today
12. More than your Eyes can See
Source: NASA, Spitzer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2--0q0XlQJ0
13. The Keeling Curve --increasing
CO2 levels leading to an
enhanced Greenhouse Effect
2006 Ozone Hole
14. Feeling the Heat
Students learn about the
urban heat island effect by
investigating which areas of
their schoolyard have higher
temperatures. Then they
analyze data about how the
number of heat waves in an
urban area has increased
over time with population.
NYC, 8/14/02:Temp and vegetation Pg. 19
Pg. 9
15. Feeling the Heat, Part 1
Students investigate how trees, grass,
asphalt, etc. affect temperature
Coolest
Warm
16. Feeling the Heat, Part 2:
Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los
Angeles, CAStand in a group of 10 along the rope. Each person takes one
LA Data Card.
The Objective: Order yourselves by the data on the card
keeping at least one foot on the rope at all times as you
move past each other to get in order.
1. Order yourselves by average temperature.
2. Order yourselves by the number of heat waves.**
3. Order yourselves by population.
(**Note: there are two decades that have the same number
of heat waves. The people with those cards can stand next
to each other in any order.)
17. Reasons for patterns
The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part of a
city. That’s the urban heat island effect.
The next 3 slides show how LA has changed over time. How do you
think the heat island effect has changed as the city changed?
18. Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is
on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))
19. Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)
20. Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated
using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 satellite
image mosaic. Topography is exaggerated one and one-half times.
(Courtesy of NASA/JPL)
21. This graph shows
the number of
heat waves in
Los Angeles, CA
over the past
century. Do you
see a pattern?
How have heat
waves changed
through time?
(From Tamrazian
et al., 2008)
Looking for patterns
22. This graph shows
the duration of
heat waves in Los
Angeles, CA
(measured in
days.) Has there
been a change
through time?
(From Tamrazian
et al., 2008)
Looking for patterns
23. How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This
graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pattern?
CourtesyofNOAA/NWS
24. Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming.
This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.
25. System for Integrated Modeling of
Metropolitan Extreme Heat Risk (SIMMER)
NCAR scientists are building a tool for
public health to use to assess the risk of
extreme heat in Houston.
• Looking at the impact of urban extreme
heat on human health
• Characterizing people’s vulnerability and
the responses to heat
• Improving how urban land cover
appears in GIS maps at local and
regional scales
• Modeling present and future extreme
heat events
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/simmer/
31. Heat waves are increasing: an example
Is it global warming, or is it natural variability?
These are not the right questions: it is a combination of both.
Source: Jim Hurrell, NCAR
37. 150 0.045±0.012
100 0.074±0.018
50 0.128±0.026
25 0.177±0.052
Period Rate
Years °/decade
Trenberth
Global mean temperatures are
rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
2005,2010,1998,2003,2002,2006,
2009,2007,2004,2001,2011,2008
41. CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions:
• Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual.
• Families/individuals live in different situations & use energy in different ways.
• Students use the worksheet to calculate a household’s CO2 emissions.
Sample card
CO2: How Much Do You Spew?
42. Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew
1. What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined?
2. Could those activities be changed to emit less CO2? How?
3. How would you change your scenario to reduce CO2?
43. Photo by Water Partners International
What are basic human needs?
Select items to purchase with your
global dollars using the
Choices and impacts worksheet
An activity by Facing the Future, www.facingthefuture.org
44. Glaciers Then and Now, Muir Glacier (Pg. 85)
Glacier Bay National Park,Alaska
1941
2004
Photos courtesy of NSIDC
Visible Impacts
46. Model a Moving Glacier: Glacier a Go-Go
Adapted by an activity by Leigh Sterns, University of Maine
The objective of this lesson is to teach middle and high school students
about variables that affect glacier flow over time:
- valley slope
- ice temperature
- basal conditions (ground surface)
- strain
Pg. 91
47. Variables to Study
PVC pipe lined with
aluminum foil and
lubricated with oil
Lubricated Bed
PVC pipeNormal Bed
PVC pipe lined with
sandpaper
Rough Bed
Basal Conditions
65°Steep
45°Medium
25°Shallow
Valley Slope
Flubber microwaved
until hot to touch
Warm Ice
(pink flubber)
Flubber at room
temperature
Normal Ice
(white flubber)
Flubber placed in the
freezer prior to class
Cold Ice
(blue flubber)
IceTemperature
PVC pipe
flubber
vertical
toothpicks
Time 1:
Time 2:
Strain
Grid
49. “Flubber” Recipe
1. Decide on one of the variables to study.
2. Make a hypothesis (e.g. the steeper the slope, the faster the flow rate of a
glacier.)
3. Test your hypothesis and record and graph your results.
4. Discuss results and how flubber is like and unlike a glacier.
food coloring
(optional)
½ cup warm water1 cup white glue
(ex. Elmer’s)
2 tsp. of Borax¾ cup warm water
Mix #2Mix #1
50. 2012 record minimum: 3.41 mil sq km
2007 record minimum: 4.13 million square km
Currently loosing Arctic Sea Ice
at a rate of 11% per decade
54. Model Projections of Future Arctic
Summer Sea Ice Minimums
Under Business as Usual Future
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
55. Hurricanes and Climate Pg. 97
Students investigate
maps and data to
learn about the
connections
between hurricanes
and climate including:
(1) regional climate
conditions where
hurricanes form, and
(2) how global climate
change may be
affecting hurricanes.
Courtesy of Kevin Trenberth
56. Where do hurricanes happen?
The map shows the paths of all tropical cyclones that occurred between
1985 and 2005. (Wikipedia commons)
57.
58. Hurricanes happen where water is warm
Temperature of the ocean surface (“sea surface temperature” or SST). Data
from GOES and POES satellites. (NOAA)
59. Warm water gives a hurricane power…
To grow in strength, a
hurricane needs:
• Warm, moist air (moisture
for rainstorms)
• Winds that don't change
direction with height
• Deep, warm ocean water
(79°F or warmer)…As winds
strengthen, more water
evaporates, releasing
energy stored in the warm
seas.
60. Is global warming affecting hurricanes?
Data fromWebster et al (2005) Science, 309, 1844-46.
Not much change in the
number of hurricanes
over time.
Strong hurricanes are
more frequent now than
they were a few decades
ago.
61. From Webster et al (2005)
Large Increase in Number of
Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
62.
63. A Conversation: Climate & Human Health
Section 5: Social and Political Connections
For more info: https://spark.ucar.edu/longcontent/climate-change-and-vector-borne-disease
66. What led to acceptance of climate change?
• Hurricane Sandy
• Increasing media coverage affirming climate change
• Midwest drought, summer 2012
• Texas drought 2011; Fires across southwest & west
• All around increase in severe weather events
• Arctic sea ice retreat
• 2012 hottest year on record in continental US…
67. Comment from a Teacher
“There was one parent who said he had a PhD in
entomology and said that he thinks global climate
change is false. If I decided to teach this
information to the students, he would come into
the classroom and dispute it all in front of me.
Instead of doing this, the school administration just
suggested that I not teach the information. I really
found it to be a shame because it's something that
is often found in the media that many students are
interested in and want to learn more about. I don't
want to tell them one way or another, but they
need to know the facts from both sides without
bias.” Source: NESTA
68. Comment from Respondent
“There was one parent who said he had a PhD in
entomology and said that he thinks global climate
change is false. If I decided to teach this
information to the students, he would come into
the classroom and dispute it all in front of me.
Instead of doing this, the school administration just
suggested that I not teach the information. I really
found it to be a shame because it's something that
is often found in the media that many students are
interested in and want to learn more about. I don't
want to tell them one way or another, but they
need to know the facts from both sides without
bias.” Source: NESTA
69. “I teach in a very conservative area
and many of my high school
students say things to me like, "My
parents don't believe in global
warming”
Source: NESTA
- NESTA teacher
71. Climate Change 101
TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS
It is real NOW
It is BAD for us
It is HUMAN-CAUSED
We can SOLVE IT if we choose to
Climate SCIENTISTS AGREE that it’s happening
This is what the
scientific evidence
supports
72. Frame and Build Trust
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q4OHQJ0_gQ
79. 2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil Fuel
Burning
+
8
800
billion tons carbon
4
billion
tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added
every year
84. What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr.The strategy has already
been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50
years.This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
87. #1: Who might support these
scenarios of ways to reduce?
• auto efficiency
• conservation in transportation
• building efficiency
• electricity efficiency
• fuel switching electrics (natural gas vs coal)
• forest storage
• soil storage
• nuclear
Possibly a taxpayer?
88. Who?
• CO2 Storage electricity
• fuel switching electricity (natural gas for coal)
• fuel switching electricity
• nuclear
• forest storage
• soil storage
• Increased efficiency electricity plants
• wind electricity
A possible fossil fuel exec. ?
89. Who?
• efficiency transport
• conservation transport efficiency
• efficiency buildings
• efficiency electricity
• wind
• solar
• forest storage
• forest storage
A possible environmentalist choice?
90. Who?
• - fuel switching electricity
• - fuel switching electricity
• - fuel switching electricity
• - efficiency transport
• - efficiency transport
• - efficiency transport
• - carbon Storage electricity
• - efficiency buildings
A likely U.S. choice?
– Many of these scenarios have
been initiated or implemented.
91. Take Home Messages from Activity
• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we
need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies
and/or enhance natural sinks
• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to
make large cuts in emissions
• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of
strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that
avoids a CO2 doubling
• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs
92.
93. Thank you for joining us today.
Help us continually improve this
workshop by completing your
survey before you leave.
Teri Eastburn
eastburn@ucar.edu
Lisa Gardiner
lisagard@ucar.edu
Workshop Website & Activities: spark.ucar.edu/events/climate-change-connections-2013
Notas do Editor
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa: REMOVE????
Teri
Teri: overview of climate pastMention Tree Ring activities; proxy record activities; and Climate Discovery Booklet for paleo activities
Click to start animation
Teri: NCAR modelers find risk of collapse in summer Arctic ice as soon as the 2020s
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa
Lisa
Data on personal outlook and relevant to one’s life now…