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Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Earnings and Conference Call
Tuesday, October 6, 2009                          Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO
                               Dr. Mike Rahm, VP Market Analysis & Strategic Planning
                                          Christine Battist, Director - Investor Relations
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to,
statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the
current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to
significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to
the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw
material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other
pressures and the effects of the current economic and financial turmoil; the build-up of
inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and
exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in
environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation;
difficulties or delays in receiving, or increases costs of, necessary governmental permits or
approvals; the effectiveness of our processes for managing our strategic priorities; adverse
weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United
States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of asset retirement,
environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation differing from
management’s current estimates; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s
operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other
potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile
chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic
Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may
differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.



                                                 Slide 2
Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Financial Results

                                                       Three Months Ended
                                                      08/31/09    08/31/08
  (In millions, except per share amounts)

  Net Sales                                            $1,457.2     $4,322.5
  Gross Margin                                           $222.2     $1,648.6
  (% o f net sales)                                          15%         38%
  Net Earnings                                           $100.6     $1,184.7
  (% o f net sales)                                          7%          27%

  Diluted EPS                                             $0.23       $2.65
  Effective Tax Rate                                       25%         31%
  Cash Flow from Operations                              $172.4      $561.5

  Cash and Cash Equivalents as of
  August 31, 2009 & 2008                               $2,598.7     $2,703.2

                                            Slide 4
Financial Results by Segment

                                              Three Months Ended
       (in millions)                           08/31/09    08/31/08
                                                    Potash
        Net Sales                               $333.3      $976.4
        Operating Earnings                       $99.3      $477.8

                                                 Phosphates
        Net Sales                              $814.4    $2,592.8
        Operating Earnings                      $61.2     $950.8

                                                  Offshore
        Net Sales                              $468.1    $1,048.0
        Operating Earnings (Loss)               ($8.0)     $159.0
                                                Corporate/Other
        Net Sales (Eliminations)               ($158.6)    ($294.7)
        Operating Earnings (Loss)               ($18.3)      ($38.7)

                                                     Total
        Net Sales                             $1,457.2       $4,322.5
        Operating Earnings                     $134.2        $1,548.9

                                    Slide 5
Financial Guidance

                                         2nd Qtr FY 2010                                 FY 2010

 Phosphate
  Sales Volume                           1.8 - 2.2 million tonnes
  DAP Selling Price                      $265 - $305 / tonne

 Capital Spending                                                                        $1.0 billion - $1.2 billion

 SG&A                                                                                    $350 - $370 million

 Effective Tax Rate                                                                      High 20% range



Note: Mosaic is not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP selling price until market conditions stabilize




                                                                Slide 6
Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Potash Strategic Priorities


Expansion Through
   Brownfields
  Potash demand growth
  Excellent potash reserves
  Multi-staged expansions underway
  Attractive returns


                      Slide 8
Phosphate Strategic Priorities

                 Maintain Competitive Position
                  Leverage scale, location and
                  integration
                  Optimize operational excellence
                   Energy usage and generation   Automation
                   Maintenance practices         Capital deployment
                   Manufacturing processes


                  Extend phosphate reserves



                       Slide 9
Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Global Economic Recovery Underway


                                        World GDP Growth
  7.0%
                                                                     Source: IHS Global Insight
  6.0%
  5.0%
  4.0%
  3.0%
  2.0%
  1.0%
  0.0%
  -1.0%
  -2.0%
               GDP Grow th        1990-2008 CAGR = 2.9%   2004-07 CAGR = 3.9%
  -3.0%
          70      75         80         85        90      95        00          05       10


                                              Slide 11
Led by China and India


                                           GDP Growth
                             Three Largest Asian Countries by Population
   13%
         Source: IHS Global Insight
   12%
   11%
   10%
    9%
    8%
    7%
    6%
    5%
    4%
    3%
          00     01     02     03     04   05    06     07    08    09     10   11   12
                              China                India              Indonesia




                                            Slide 12
Continued Strong Grain and Oilseed Demand Growth

 Bil Tonnes
                     World Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
 2.8
       Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
 2.7

 2.6

 2.5

 2.4

 2.3

 2.2

 2.1

 2.0
       99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11
                                    Production           Use               L     M     H


                                                 Slide 13
Global Stocks Still Not Secure

  Mil Tonnes                                                                              Days Use
                            World Grain and Oilseed Stocks
  650                                                                                         120
                                              Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
  600                                                                                         110

  550                                                                                         100

  500                                                                                         90

  450                                                                                         80

  400                                                                                         70

  350                                                                                         60

  300                                                                                         50

  250                                                                                         40
        99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11
                                     Stocks           Days of Use           L     M     H


                                              Slide 14
Futures Markets Agree


$ BU                                    New Crop Corn Prices                                      $ BU                                 New Crop Soybean Prices
                    Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009                            Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009
5.00                                                                                              11.00

4.75                                                                                              10.50

4.50                                                                                              10.00

4.25                                                                                               9.50

4.00                                                                                               9.00

3.75                                                                                               8.50
        Source: CBOT                                                                                       Source: CBOT
3.50                                                                                               8.00
       Jan    Feb       Mar       Apr    May       Jun       Jul      Aug       Sep         Oct           Jan    Feb       Mar       Apr   May       Jun       Jul      Aug      Sep         Oct
                       Dec 2010               Dec 2011                  Dec 2012                                          Nov 2010               Nov 2011                  Nov 2012




                                                                                             Slide 15
A Tale of Two Crops

Mil Tonnes                                                                                   Bil Tonnes
                     U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use                                              World less U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
550                                                                                          2.20
      Source: USDA                                                                                  Source: USDA
                                                                                             2.15
500
                                                                                             2.10

                                                                                             2.05
450
                                                                                             2.00

400                                                                                          1.95

                                                                                             1.90
350
                                                                                             1.85

                                                                                             1.80
300
                                                                                             1.75

250                                                                                          1.70
      99/00   00/01    01/02   02/03   03/04 04/05   05/06   06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10          99/00   00/01   01/02   02/03    03/04 04/05   05/06     06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10
                                        Production           Use                                                                    Production             Use




                                                                                      Slide 16
China: The Challenge to Boost Crop Yields


Mil Tonnes
                     China Grain and Oilseed Production and Use                               Mil Tonnes                  China MOP Import Demand
510                                                                                           10
      Source: USDA                                                                                 Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
490                                                                                           9

470
                                                                                              8

                                                                                              7
450
                                                                                              6
430
                                                                                              5
410
                                                                                              4
390                                                                                           3

370                                                                                           2

350                                                                                           1
      99/00   00/01     01/02   02/03   03/04 04/05   05/06   06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10   0
                                         Production           Use
                                                                                                   95      96   97   98   99   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09F




                                                                                       Slide 17
India: Full Steam Ahead for the Rabi Crop

Mil Tonnes
                  India Grain and Oilseed Production and Use                                 $ Ha                             Return After Variable Cost
255                                                                                                                         for an Indian Farm Operation
        Source: USDA                                                                         $1,200
245                                                                                                      Source: Mosaic India
                                                                                             $1,000
235

225
                                                                                              $800

215                                                                                           $600

205                                                                                           $400
195
                                                                                              $200
185
                                                                                                    $0
175                                                                                                          2005           2006         2007            2008   2009F
      99/00   00/01    01/02   02/03   03/04 04/05   05/06   06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10
                                                                                                                                Rice             Wheat
                                        Production           Use




                                                                                      Slide 18
South America: A Poor 2009 Harvest


                 Argentina Grain and Oilseed Harvested Area and Yield                           Mil Tonnes
Mil Ha                                                                                  MT Ha                        Brazil Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
32                                                                                        3.4   145
         Source: USDA                                                                                 Source: USDA
                                                                                                135
30                                                                                        3.2

                                                                                                125
28                                                                                        3.0
                                                                                                115
26                                                                                        2.8
                                                                                                105

24                                                                                        2.6
                                                                                                 95

22                                                                                        2.4
                                                                                                 85


20                                                                                        2.2    75
     99/00     00/01    01/02   02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10                 99/00   00/01     01/02   02/03   03/04 04/05   05/06   06/07   07/08   08/09   09/10
                                     Harvested Area    Yield                                                                             Production           Use




                                                                                         Slide 19
South America: Decent Incentives for 2010 Crop


$ Ha                            Return After Variable Cost                                                          Return After Variable Cost
                                                                                      $ Ha
                            for an Argentina Farm Operation                                                      for a Brazilian Farm Operation
$600
                                                          Source: Mosaic Argentina
                                                                                      $600
                                                                                                                                                  Source: Mosaic Brazil
$500                                                                                  $500

$400                                                                                  $400

                                                                                      $300
$300
                                                                                      $200
$200
                                                                                      $100
$100                                                                                    $0

  $0                                                                                  -$100
           2005/06         2006/07        2007/08        2008/09       2009/10F                   2005/06       2006/07       2007/08      2008/09         2009/10F
       Soybeans in Pergam ino   Corn in South Santa Fe   Wheat in East Buenos Aires           Soybeans in Mato Grosso     Corn in Parana   Sugar Cane in São Paulo




                                                                               Slide 20
We Expect a Strong Demand Recovery


Mil Tonnes         World Processed Phosphate Import Demand                                 Mil Tonnes                   World MOP Import Demand
                                             (Excludes China)                                                          (Excludes the United States and Europe)
25                                                                                         35
     Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
                                                                                                Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
23
      W Europe              Asia Less China                                                30
20    Oceania               L America                                                                Asia     Latin America        Other
      Other                                                                                25
18

15
                                                                                           20
13
                                                                                           15
10

 8                                                                                         10
 5
                                                                                            5
 3

 0                                                                                          0
     95      96   97   98    99   00    01     02   03    04    05   06   07 08E 09F 10F        95      96   97   98   99     00   01   02   03   04    05   06   07 08E 09F 10F




                                                                                     Slide 21
Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery


         Global economic recovery underway
          • GDP growth
          • Led by China, India and Indonesia
          • More income = more grain intensive

         Positive outlook for agriculture
          • Continued strong grain and oilseed demand growth
          • Production challenges in key countries

         Mosaic strategic plan underway
          • Grow potash through expansions
          • Maintain competitive position in phosphates
          • Align distribution with production assets



                         Slide 23
Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Thank you
Mosaic’s Annual Shareholders Meeting
October 8, 2009, in Regina, Saskatchewan
10:00 a.m. CST (12:00 noon EDT)
To view the webcast, please visit www.mosaicco.com/investors

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Q3 2009 Earning Report of The Mosaic Company

  • 1. Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010 Earnings and Conference Call Tuesday, October 6, 2009 Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO Dr. Mike Rahm, VP Market Analysis & Strategic Planning Christine Battist, Director - Investor Relations
  • 2. Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and the effects of the current economic and financial turmoil; the build-up of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation; difficulties or delays in receiving, or increases costs of, necessary governmental permits or approvals; the effectiveness of our processes for managing our strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation differing from management’s current estimates; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Slide 2
  • 4. Financial Results Three Months Ended 08/31/09 08/31/08 (In millions, except per share amounts) Net Sales $1,457.2 $4,322.5 Gross Margin $222.2 $1,648.6 (% o f net sales) 15% 38% Net Earnings $100.6 $1,184.7 (% o f net sales) 7% 27% Diluted EPS $0.23 $2.65 Effective Tax Rate 25% 31% Cash Flow from Operations $172.4 $561.5 Cash and Cash Equivalents as of August 31, 2009 & 2008 $2,598.7 $2,703.2 Slide 4
  • 5. Financial Results by Segment Three Months Ended (in millions) 08/31/09 08/31/08 Potash Net Sales $333.3 $976.4 Operating Earnings $99.3 $477.8 Phosphates Net Sales $814.4 $2,592.8 Operating Earnings $61.2 $950.8 Offshore Net Sales $468.1 $1,048.0 Operating Earnings (Loss) ($8.0) $159.0 Corporate/Other Net Sales (Eliminations) ($158.6) ($294.7) Operating Earnings (Loss) ($18.3) ($38.7) Total Net Sales $1,457.2 $4,322.5 Operating Earnings $134.2 $1,548.9 Slide 5
  • 6. Financial Guidance 2nd Qtr FY 2010 FY 2010 Phosphate Sales Volume 1.8 - 2.2 million tonnes DAP Selling Price $265 - $305 / tonne Capital Spending $1.0 billion - $1.2 billion SG&A $350 - $370 million Effective Tax Rate High 20% range Note: Mosaic is not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP selling price until market conditions stabilize Slide 6
  • 8. Potash Strategic Priorities Expansion Through Brownfields Potash demand growth Excellent potash reserves Multi-staged expansions underway Attractive returns Slide 8
  • 9. Phosphate Strategic Priorities Maintain Competitive Position Leverage scale, location and integration Optimize operational excellence Energy usage and generation Automation Maintenance practices Capital deployment Manufacturing processes Extend phosphate reserves Slide 9
  • 10. Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
  • 11. Global Economic Recovery Underway World GDP Growth 7.0% Source: IHS Global Insight 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% GDP Grow th 1990-2008 CAGR = 2.9% 2004-07 CAGR = 3.9% -3.0% 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Slide 11
  • 12. Led by China and India GDP Growth Three Largest Asian Countries by Population 13% Source: IHS Global Insight 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 China India Indonesia Slide 12
  • 13. Continued Strong Grain and Oilseed Demand Growth Bil Tonnes World Grain and Oilseed Production and Use 2.8 Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios) 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11 Production Use L M H Slide 13
  • 14. Global Stocks Still Not Secure Mil Tonnes Days Use World Grain and Oilseed Stocks 650 120 Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios) 600 110 550 100 500 90 450 80 400 70 350 60 300 50 250 40 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11 Stocks Days of Use L M H Slide 14
  • 15. Futures Markets Agree $ BU New Crop Corn Prices $ BU New Crop Soybean Prices Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009 Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009 5.00 11.00 4.75 10.50 4.50 10.00 4.25 9.50 4.00 9.00 3.75 8.50 Source: CBOT Source: CBOT 3.50 8.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Nov 2012 Slide 15
  • 16. A Tale of Two Crops Mil Tonnes Bil Tonnes U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use World less U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use 550 2.20 Source: USDA Source: USDA 2.15 500 2.10 2.05 450 2.00 400 1.95 1.90 350 1.85 1.80 300 1.75 250 1.70 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Production Use Production Use Slide 16
  • 17. China: The Challenge to Boost Crop Yields Mil Tonnes China Grain and Oilseed Production and Use Mil Tonnes China MOP Import Demand 510 10 Source: USDA Source: Fertecon and Mosaic 490 9 470 8 7 450 6 430 5 410 4 390 3 370 2 350 1 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 0 Production Use 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09F Slide 17
  • 18. India: Full Steam Ahead for the Rabi Crop Mil Tonnes India Grain and Oilseed Production and Use $ Ha Return After Variable Cost 255 for an Indian Farm Operation Source: USDA $1,200 245 Source: Mosaic India $1,000 235 225 $800 215 $600 205 $400 195 $200 185 $0 175 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Rice Wheat Production Use Slide 18
  • 19. South America: A Poor 2009 Harvest Argentina Grain and Oilseed Harvested Area and Yield Mil Tonnes Mil Ha MT Ha Brazil Grain and Oilseed Production and Use 32 3.4 145 Source: USDA Source: USDA 135 30 3.2 125 28 3.0 115 26 2.8 105 24 2.6 95 22 2.4 85 20 2.2 75 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Harvested Area Yield Production Use Slide 19
  • 20. South America: Decent Incentives for 2010 Crop $ Ha Return After Variable Cost Return After Variable Cost $ Ha for an Argentina Farm Operation for a Brazilian Farm Operation $600 Source: Mosaic Argentina $600 Source: Mosaic Brazil $500 $500 $400 $400 $300 $300 $200 $200 $100 $100 $0 $0 -$100 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F Soybeans in Pergam ino Corn in South Santa Fe Wheat in East Buenos Aires Soybeans in Mato Grosso Corn in Parana Sugar Cane in São Paulo Slide 20
  • 21. We Expect a Strong Demand Recovery Mil Tonnes World Processed Phosphate Import Demand Mil Tonnes World MOP Import Demand (Excludes China) (Excludes the United States and Europe) 25 35 Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic Source: Fertecon and Mosaic 23 W Europe Asia Less China 30 20 Oceania L America Asia Latin America Other Other 25 18 15 20 13 15 10 8 10 5 5 3 0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F Slide 21
  • 22. Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
  • 23. Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery Global economic recovery underway • GDP growth • Led by China, India and Indonesia • More income = more grain intensive Positive outlook for agriculture • Continued strong grain and oilseed demand growth • Production challenges in key countries Mosaic strategic plan underway • Grow potash through expansions • Maintain competitive position in phosphates • Align distribution with production assets Slide 23
  • 24. Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010 Thank you
  • 25. Mosaic’s Annual Shareholders Meeting October 8, 2009, in Regina, Saskatchewan 10:00 a.m. CST (12:00 noon EDT) To view the webcast, please visit www.mosaicco.com/investors