Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying the True Impact of Digital (20) eMarketer Webinar: Retail Ecommerce Outlook—Tallying the True Impact of Digital1. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
May 1, 2014
Retail Ecommerce
Outlook—Tallying The
True Impact of Digital
Sponsored by
Presented by:
Yory Wurmser
eMarketer, Inc.
2. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Agenda
eMarketer’s 2014 ecommerce forecast
– Overall pace of growth
– Sector-by-sector details
Convergence of online and offline shopping
– How digital influences brick-and-mortar
– Lessons from offline for digital retail
Role of mobile devices in ecommerce
– Smartphones
– Tablets
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5. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce sales growth will more than
triple growth in retail overall …
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15.5%
4.4%
Ecommerce Retail Overall
6. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
… but sales in traditional retail still will
dwarf ecommerce sales in 2014
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Sales
Traditional Retail Ecommerce
$4.43 Trillion
$0.30 Trillion
7. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Recap: Ecommerce will grow quickly in
2014
• Sales reach $304 billion
• 15.5% increase from 2013
• 6.4% of overall retail sales
9. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Retail still hasn’t recovered to
prerecession levels as a percent of GDP
• Reached 27.6%
in 2007
• Fell to 25.2% in
2009 at trough
• Back to 27.0% in
2013
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10. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Consumer spending is influenced by
conflicting forces
Upward
• Improving
consumer
confidence
• Lower debt
• Low interest
rates
• Pent-up
demand
Downward
• Flat real
income
• High
unemployment
• Harsh winter
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12. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
One other ‘upward’ pressure: ecommerce
itself
1. The growth of ‘long-tail’ sales
2. The impact of international
sales from US ecommerce sites
3. The power of information to
overcome consumer reluctance
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1. The long tail enabled by ecommerce
marketplaces
Source: Chris Anderson, www.thelongtail.com
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3. The power of information online
“[Consumers] don’t want to be
wrong. … So, a productive
thought process for the
retailer can be, ‘How can I
help them to feel more
assured in their choice?’”
— Karen Leitze, Executive Vice
President, Director of Research and
Strategy
MARC USA
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Unpacking ecommerce: Retail sectors
deploy ecommerce differently
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Clipart from www.clipartbest.com
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Ecommerce by sector: Size tells only part
of the story
2014 Sales Ecommerce
(eMarketer) penetration*
Consumer electronics $66.4B 28%−44%
Apparel & accessories $50.2B 11%
*comScore & NPD Group
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Biggest impact of ecommerce in
sectors characterized by:
Commodities
Easy storage
Easy delivery
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Sectors with biggest ecommerce
growth in 2014
Books/Video/Music: 17.0%
Apparel & Accessories: 16.2%
Auto & Parts: 15.9%
Consumer Electronics: 15.8%
20. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Focus on apparel: Why the lag and now
the growth?
• Low penetration
• Comfort in
returns
• Better online
experience
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24. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Impact of digital much bigger than
ecommerce sales
“The total impact of digital on
the retail enterprise today
[extends to] the majority of
retail sales.”
— Michael Burgess, President of
HBC Digital
25. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Most US shoppers are digital shoppers
and buyers
• Nearly 90% of
219.4 million
internet users
shop online
• Nearly three-
quarters buy
online
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Shift in focus from channel-specific
sales to overall sales
“Among multichannel retailers
… their interest in digital is
increasingly focused on
driving customers and
shoppers into their store
locations.”
— Scott Falzone, Industry Director
of Retail Specialty
29. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
CASE:
• Map to guide in-store
shopping
• Purchase history
• Clienteling app
• Click to collect
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Multichannel retailers need to gauge
the total effect of ecommerce
“I truly don’t care if shoppers
end up buying online or in-
store.”
— Gihad Jawhar, Vice President, Customer
Interface
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Stores finding equivalents to web
analytics
Web
• Cookie
• Heat map
• Traffic source
• Shopping carts
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Store
• Loyalty number
• Foot traffic
• MAC address
• Location-tracking
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Digital is a less free-flowing shopping
experience than is in-store
“You’re trying to catch lightning
in a bottle by relying on digital to
drive your market product.”
— Marshal Cohen, Chief Industry Analyst,
NPD Group
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US retail mcommerce in 2014
• $57.8 billion in sales
• Up 37.2% from 2013
• 19.0% of ecommerce sales
• 1.2% of total retail sales
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Growth in tablet sales will outpace
growth in smartphone sales through 2018
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266%
134%
41. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile Is Becoming a Ubiquitous Part of
Shopping
“Retailers increasingly see consumers as not only
being always on, but also on the go.”
Scott Falzone, Industry Director of Retail Specialty
Google
42. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile shoppers in 2014 make up 73.7%
of digital shoppers
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110.9 million
124.8
million
• 144.8 million total
• Up 16% from 2013
44. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Knowing the Role of Devices
Tablets
• At home
• Extended
research
• General buying
Smartphones
• Everywhere
• Quick research
• Last-minute
buying
45. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Mcommerce is biting into desktop’s share
of traffic and revenue
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Percent change in US apparel and
accessories retail ecommerce,
Q3 2012 & Q3 2013
Traffic Revenue
Desktop 19.8% 7.9%
Smartphone 58.5% 66.4%
Tablet 49.0% 60.8%
Source: MarketLive, “Q3 2013 Performance Index”
46. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Three implications for retailers trying to
maximize impact of mobile shopping
1. Understanding use cases is
crucial for strategy
2. Small screen size demands
simplicity of design
3. Curation is vital for
merchandising
48. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Implication No. 2: Small screen size
demands simplicity of design
“The smartphone is just not going to work
the same way as your stores. You can
show me thousands of products in your
store. You can only show me five on the
phone. So there is a mechanical,
mathematical kind of compression effect
between the two that is going to disrupt
the way business is done.”
--Nicolas Franchet, Head of Retail and Ecommerce,
Global Vertical Strategy
49. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Implication No. 3: Simpler smartphone
interfaces raise importance of curation via…
– Algorithms
– Friends
– Shopper
recommendations
– Tastemakers
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50. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways
2014 will be another year of rapid growth in
ecommerce sales
Sales are only a partial measure of
ecommerce, which may influence the majority
of sales
The brick-and-mortar and ecommerce shopping
experiences are converging, making a singular
strategy important
Mobile is taking on a bigger role, with tablets
becoming digital catalogs and phones
becoming omnipresent research tools.
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51. › RETAILER CHALLENGES
Reaching the mobile consumer,
at the right time and place
Creating a seamless experience
across channels
Delivering results
53. › PROFITABLE MOBILE MARKETING CHANNEL
+3-5% Lift in
In-Store Sales
+5-18%
Increase in AOV
+631% ROI
54. › RMN SHOWCASE:
A RICH AND ENGAGING SHOPPING EXPERIENCE
American Eagle’s
Spring Collection
Lord & Taylor’s
Swim Collection
Home Depot’s Spring
Black Friday Deals
55. ©2014 eMarketer Inc.
You will receive an email
tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and
webinar recording.
Q&A Session
Retail Ecommerce
Outlook—Tallying the
True Impact of Digital
Around 200 eMarketer reports are published
each year. Here are some recent ones you
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Proximity Marketing in Retail: Can Ecommerce Tactics
Revive Brick-and-Mortar?
Shopping Cart Abandonment: How Retailers Are Using
the Metric to Drive Better Results
Supermarkets and Mobile: Satisfying Grocery
Shoppers’ Appetites
The State of Omnichannel Retail: Retailers Playing
Catch-Up with Consumers
Tablets and Apparel: Fashioning a Role in Mobile
Commerce
Key Digital Trends for 2014
Learn more about digital
marketing with an eMarketer
corporate subscription
To learn more: www.emarketer.com/corporate
800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
Sponsored by
Yory Wurmser