Online Holiday Sales Forecast to Grow 16.8% in 2012

SEPTEMBER 20, 2012

Online Holiday
Shopping Forecast
and Trends

Sponsored by:
Jeffrey Grau
Principal Analyst
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

Questions we will answer today:

 What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
 How is the holiday season being extended?
 What new trends will fuel sales growth?
 Daily deals
 Smartphone and tablet shoppers
 Photo-sharing sites
 Email and search
 Key takeaways


Online holiday sales will post strong
growth for the fourth consecutive year
Online sales for November and December will reach
$54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011

Twitter – #eMwebinar

What is your outlook for the online holiday
shopping season?

“The overall growth
“We’re thinking we’re expecting should
20% growth for the be in line with 2011 or
holidays.” potentially slightly
Source: eMarketer interview, better.”
August 10, 2012
Source: eMarketer interview,
Eric Best July 31, 2012
Scot Wingo
CEO, Chairman of the Board and Co-Founder Founder and CEO
ChannelAdvisor Mercent

“We’re not expecting “I feel comfortable
to see a soft year saying growth will be
by any means.” in the neighborhood of
20%.”
Source: eMarketer interview,
August 2, 2012 Source: eMarketer interview,
August 8, 2012
Jay Henderson
Strategy Program Director, Cross Channel Marketing Ryan Gibson
IBM Enterprise Marketing Management Vice President of Marketing
The Rimm-Kaufman Group

Retail ecommerce sales are off to a
strong start in 2012
The US Department of Commerce and comScore both
estimate online sales grew 15% in H1 2012


Online holiday sales will be in line with
strong ecommerce sales for all of 2012
Retail ecommerce sales are forecast to reach $224
billion in 2012, up 15.4% over 2011

In 2012, $54.5
billion in online
holiday sales will
account for 24.3%
of total ecommerce
sales


Questions we will answer today

 What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
 How is the holiday season being extended?
 What new trends will fuel sales growth?
 Daily deals
 Smartphone and tablet shoppers
 Photo sharing sites
 Email and search
 Key takeaways


Consumers will shop for holiday gifts
both earlier and later in the season
In 2011, online spending was strong in early
November and late December


Holiday creep will continue this year

 FINDING 1: Some 31% of retailers will start their
holiday promotions earlier this year, with 42% of
them starting in October (Source: Hay Group)

 FINDING 2: By Black Friday 2011 (Nov 25), 54% of
online shoppers had completed more than one-
quarter of their holiday purchases, compared to
49% of shoppers in 2010 (Source: Compete)

 OBSERVATION: Black Friday deals have morphed
into Black November deals

 TAKEAWAY: Retailers compete for wallet share
and try to get shoppers to buy over multiple
($ millions) 2010 2011 % change paychecks
Nov 1–20 $8,470 $9,670 14%
Source: comScore Inc.

“Halloween is the new Thanksgiving.”
—Scot Wingo, CEO of ChannelAdvisor


Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy
holiday shopping weekend

 OBSERVATION 1: Thanksgiving Day now kicks
off the busy Thanksgiving weekend for shopping,
eclipsing Black Friday, which itself only became a
big online shopping day in recent years

 OBSERVATION 2: People are bringing their
smartphones and tablets with them to their
Thanksgiving dinner at friends’ or relatives’ homes
and using their mobile devices to shop before and
after the Thanksgiving meal.

($ millions) 2010 2011 % change
Thanksgiving Day $407 $479 18%

“Retailers must begin promoting deals a day early and be prepared to keep them fresh on
Black Friday to hold shoppers’ interest.” —John Squire, director of digital marketing and analytics at IBM


Consumers will continue holiday shopping
right through Christmas

 FINDING 1: On Xmas Day 2011, online sales grew 16.4% and
sales from mobile devices increased 173% YOY (Source: IBM)

 FINDING 2: Last year, 39% of online consumers shopped after
Christmas and 32% finished holiday shopping post-Christmas.
(Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX)

 FINDING 3: Before the start of the 2011 holiday, over 60% of
consumers were already looking forward to post-holiday deals.
70% of post-holiday shoppers made purchases for themselves but
also looked for gifts for close family members (Source: Yahoo!)

($ millions) 2010 2011 % change
Dec 19–Jan 1 $4,437 $5,330 20%

“Retailers’ focus on express shipping at discount prices or even for free, as well as an
increase in in-store pick up messaging, contributed to strong sales leading up to Xmas.”
—Chad White, director of research at Responsys


Consumers also shopped online earlier
and later in the day on Cyber Monday

2010 2011
Before 9am 3% 12%
5pm–9pm 24% 34%


Nearly 1 in 4
online
consumers
purchased a
gift via a
daily deal
site during
the 2011
holiday
season


This year, holiday shoppers will take
advantage of retailers’ own daily deals


Daily deals have become an important
draw for creating seasonal demand

“Creating branded experiences for
the shopper is more important
than ever for retailers.”

Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012

Eric Best
Founder and CEO
Mercent

“Daily deals are another interesting
promotional dial that we didn’t see
last holiday season that so far this
year consumers and retailers
are really warming up to.” Scot Wingo
CEO, Chairman and Co-Founder
ChannelAdvisor
Source: eMarketer interview, August 10, 2012


Consumers and retailers both benefit
from daily deals

 Daily deals tend to be used to sell off inventory at big
discounts of 30% to 50%

 Retailer use daily deals to catch the attention of
shoppers early in the holiday season

 Daily deals give retailers license to contact shoppers
frequently

 Big discounts can generate a lot of
word-of-mouth on social networks, especially when
retailers offer fan-exclusives via Facebook and Twitter


Smartphone and table shopping are
engines of ecommerce growth
In December 2011, mobile shoppers contributed
14.6% of traffic and 11.0% of sales on retail sites

“By December 2012, mobile sales will double and exceed 20% of site sales.”
—Jay Henderson, strategy program director of cross channel marketing at IBM


Tablets are the preferred portable device
for making purchases

Meanwhile, 77.6% of respondents to Baynote’s study indicated
they used their mobile phone to research and comparison shop


Research
on a
smartphone
often leads
to a
purchase
in-store or
online
via a PC


Smartphones are used to satisfy
immediate shopping needs


Usage of comparison-shopping apps is
exploding

ShopSavvy

RedLaser
(owned by eBay)


Tablet shoppers outspend smartphone
and traditional online shoppers
During Holiday 2011, tablet users spent 20% more
per order, on average, than desktop online shoppers


Tablets are stretching the online shopping
day beyond business hours
“We’re seeing 80% spikes in traffic
on weekends over a typical
weekday, starting around 9am or
10am, and going all the way through
11pm.”

Source: eMarketer interview, April 24, 2012

Matt Jones
General Manager of Mobile
Home Depot

“We see a spike in traffic between 8pm
and 10pm. People are at home, they’re
lying on the couch or in bed. The traffic
is less hurried …” Yonatan Feldman
VP of Mobile & Global Engineering
Source: eMarketer interview, May 1, 2012 Gilt Groupe


Photo-sharing sites will be a new source
of holiday traffic for certain retailers
Pinterest has emerged as a serious contender to
Facebook in driving visitors to apparel sites

“Pinterest users are very heavy online spenders.”
—Andrew Lipsman, vice president of industry analysis at comScore


Wayfair derives multiple benefits from
Pinterest referrals

1,700-plus followers on Pinterest

Shoppers referred to Wayfair’s
website by Pinterest were more than
10% more likely to make a purchase
than visitors who arrived from other
social networks, including Facebook
and Twitter

Pinterest referrals spent 10% more
than the average shopper on the site

Source: Mashable, April 2012.


Victoria’s
Secret has
run several
Pinterest
contests,
including
“Victoria’s
Secret
Summer”


Free People,
a vintage
apparel
retailer, has
more than
300,000
followers on
Instagram,
where it runs
a contest
called
“What’s In
Your FP
Closet?”

Email is the preferred vehicle for online
consumers to receive holiday promotions


Shopping cart abandonment rates climb
during the holiday season

 FINDING: After Labor Day, shopping cart abandonment rates
rise

 PROOF: In 2011, 72% of all potential ecommerce purchases
were abandoned; the rate jumped to 85% in the weeks running
up to Cyber Monday and peaked at 89.2% on November 23

 PREDICTION: The shopping cart abandonment rate will reach
90% this year, on November 21, the day before Thanksgiving

 RECOMMENDATION: Sending a sequence of gentle email
reminders to abandoners that there are still items in their online
shopping cart can result in a recovery rate of between 10% and
30%

Source: SeeWhy,

“As in previous years, many customers [during the holiday season] anticipated
promotional offers and deferred purchases, causing the abandonment rate to shoot up.”
—Charles Nicholls, founder and chief strategy officer at SeeWhy


Holiday
shoppers will
see more
sophisticated
triggered
emails like
this one from
Crutchfield
appealing to
a wide range
of
preferences


Google Shopping will debut this holiday
season

Product
Listing
Ads


Google Shopping will allow consumers to
shop by many attributes

Filtering
options


Key Takeaways

 Online holiday sales will reach $54.5 billion in 2012,
up 16.8% over 2011
 Ecommerce sales for all of 2012 are on target to
reach $224.2 billion, up 15.4% year over year
 Consumers will do more shopping earlier and
later in the holiday season to take advantage of
retailers’ heavy promotions
 Mobile shopping and online deal hunting will
be major contributors to holiday ecommerce success
 Photo-sharing sites will drive traffic to fashion retail
sites


Drive Conversions and Revenue

 Built for commerce: Conversions,
transactions and revenue
 Highly personal, relevant email
and cross-channel marketing
 Sophisticated made simple

Kevin Skurski | Director of Marketing Communications

Holiday Resource Center

A collection of tools and research,
including white papers, guides and
blog posts.

Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays

2012 Holiday Planning Month-by-Month
Guide

2012 Holiday Email Marketing Lookbook

bronto.com/holiday

Customer Lifecycle

Uncovering Missed Revenue Opportunities –
Exploring the Customer Lifecycle

Examine each phase of the
customer lifecycle

Outline consumer behavior
along the way

Identify revenue-generating programs

bronto.com/resources

Tips & Tricks

 Expertise from the field
 White papers
 Customer success stories
 Blog posts


Q&A Session
Learn more about digital advertising with
an eMarketer corporate subscription
Online Holiday
Shopping Forecast
Over 120 reports are published each year.
and Trends
Following are a few recent ones you may
be interested in:

 Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends

 Adapting to a Showrooming World: How Retailers
Are Earning Customer Loyalty
Jeffrey Grau  Worldwide B2C Ecommerce Forecast: Midyear
2012 Update
You will receive an email  How Retailers Are Leveraging ‘Big Data’ to
tomorrow with a link to Personalize Ecommerce
view the deck and
webinar recording.

Sponsored by: To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products
800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
Bronto

Online Holiday Sales Forecast to Grow 16.8% in 2012

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (19)

Semelhante a Online Holiday Sales Forecast to Grow 16.8% in 2012

Semelhante a Online Holiday Sales Forecast to Grow 16.8% in 2012 (20)

Mais de eMarketer

Mais de eMarketer (20)

Último

Último (20)

Online Holiday Sales Forecast to Grow 16.8% in 2012

Notas do Editor