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Fixing The Media

                        jo@dearmedia.be


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                      1
•        a digital consulting company, working for
                        European clients
               •        founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron
               •        our mission is to help find a new balance
                        between the certainties of your traditional
                        business and the opportunities of innovations
                        in (digital) media
               •        our scope is everything in the digital space, with
                        focus on social, mobile, tablets, location,
                        connected TV, new radio, ...
               •        We work for large European clients

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                        2
•   Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be)
                        •   Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE
                            Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...)
                        •   Media thinker, innovator & strategist
                        •   Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected
                            TV
                        •   Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer
                        •   Vice-President IAB Belgium
                        •   Contact
                            •   jo@dearmedia.be
             Jo             •   http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff)
             Caudron        •   http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff)
                            •   www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed)

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                                                  3
Available from October 2011

                        Already in pre-order on
                        www.MediaMorgen.com




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                 4
twitter.com/jcaudron



vrijdag 21 oktober 11                          5
To get this started...
               • Who is using?                    • Who is using?
                        - Twitter                   - an iPhone
                        - Facebook, Netlog, ...     - an Android
                        - LinkedIn, Plaxo           - a Blackberry
                        - Email                     - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony
                        - LBS                         Ericsson, ...
                        - Augmented Reality         - a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2,
                                                      Android, ...)



vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                             6
Don’t believe anything
                          you will hear in the
                        following presentation!

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                             7
A short history of everything

             Analogue       Digital




                            Connected (internet)           Social




                                      Everything is getting mobile


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                8
The Perfect Storm

                        Authority Shifting




                                          Shift of
                                                     Content Explosion
                           Place Shifting Control




                            Time Shifting

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                    9
What are
                        social media?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                   10
Radio




vrijdag 21 oktober 11
                                                                                          TV


                                                                                         Print


                                                                                      Billboards




                                                  From ...
                                                                                          DM


                                                                                     Social Media




                                                                               Marketing & Communication


                                                                                         Sales
                        The sky is the limit...



                                                                                   Service & Support


                                                                                          HR
                                                  ... to




                                                                                           IT
                                                             Social Business




                                                                                PR & External Commun.


                                                                                  R&D & Enterprise 2.0
11
vrijdag 21 oktober 11   12
7.000.000.000
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                   13
2.000.000.000
                        7.000.000.000
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                   14
1.300.000.000
                        2.000.000.000
                        7.000.000.000
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                   15
5.000.000.000
                        1.300.000.000
                        2.000.000.000
                        7.000.000.000
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                   16
The Future is
      ‘Mobile’




vrijdag 21 oktober 11   17
Mobile is the
                Biggest!
                                         nes.
                              obile p ho
                         n m         ld o ver
                5 billio       re so
                    illio n we       n e!
                1 b            r alo
                      las t yea
                 the




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                           18
vrijdag 21 oktober 11   19
300


                                                                    225
       In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, where iPads ...
       (source: IDC).                                               150

       By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold.
                                                                     75
       Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next
       coming years.                                                  0
                                                                          2010   2011   2012   2013   2014


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                                                        20
So, Traditional Media are Dead?
               No, but...
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                21
What about newspapers?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                    22
What about newspapers?
                                         • Print newspapers are no longer to
                                           best “format” to bring the “latest”
                                           news
                                         • The daily frequency can not
                                           compete to online newspapers
                                         • They have cannibalized on their
                                           own business: free newssites
                                         • Classifieds are lost completely
                                         • Advertisers believe in online and
                                           new advertising formats and are
                                           slowly towards online
                                         • Yet traditional online advertising
                                           does not work as hoped for, is
                                           worth less, thus is not compensating
                                           for offline loss
                                         • Readers are less loyal
                                           (subscriptions) and become
                                           weekend-consumers


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                             23
vrijdag 21 oktober 11   24
Will new technology help?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                       25
The future of
             Magazines?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11        26
And what about the music industry?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                         27
It’s not going well...




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                    28
It’s not going well...
                “Jo, read and feel the horror”

                (someone at a very big record label)
                                                       Bob Lefsetz
                                                       talking on Lady GaGa and the 0,99 sales on
                                                       Amazon...

                                                       “You can't argue about the price. "Born This Way"
                                                       was available at Amazon for 99 cents. And then, just
                                                       in case you didn't catch it the first time around, they
                                                       repeated the promotion a couple of days later. Only
                                                       400,000 odd people took Amazon up on this offer.  
                                                       Meaning for many, they just don't want to hear GaGa
                                                       AT ANY PRICE!”


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                                                            29
What might impact TV? Timeshifting!
                                             How big is time shifted
                                             viewing today?
                                             • 2,5% (VRT)
                                             • 20% (VTM telenovelas)-
                                               30%
                                             • 10% (RTL)
                                             It IS growing.

                                             How much loss of advertising
                                             can commercial TV digest?




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                       30
What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution!




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                            31
vrijdag 21 oktober 11   32
What might impact TV? The People!
                    They don’t watch less TV.

           But they are changing the very
         nature of the DNA of (commercial)
                         TV.

             They might even pay for TV, but
                   maybe not to you.

        They might stay loyal to TV-brands,
                  (near) linear TV, ...
          but if they run away from your
        advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have
                       an issue.


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                               33
What might impact TV? The People!
                                            Transcript
                                            - Shat are you doing?
                                            - I am watching...
                                            - Why do you rather watch on
                                            the iPad instead of on TV?
                                            - Because I can choose on this and
                                            because there is more
                                            - And can’t you choose on TV?
                                            - Yes, but it’s not on the iPad
                                            - And you prefer it on the iPad?
                        Don’t believe me?
                          Watch this...     - Yes...

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                            34
Gen X
               • Challenge traditional media
               • Looking for qualitative, intelligent,
                        traditional knowledge and media
               •        The architects and users of these
                        traditional media
               •        Digital immigrants
               •        Stuck in the old models, and yet: also the
                        drivers of the first digital and online
                        revolutions (Jobs, Andreessen, ...)



vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                35
Gen Y
               • Interact with media
               • Going for “fast and happiness”, but still going
                        forward
               •        Finding and exploring stuff
               •        Born with newspapers, linear TV, ...
               •        Masters of the traditional internet (click,
                        browse, ...)
               •        Discover the new media channels as they grow
                        up



vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                  36
OD Generation...
               • Born in 2005 (so, a bit later than
                        Generation Z)
               •        Are “in the media”: both consumers and
                        creators
                        -   On Demand
                        -   Over Dose
                        -   Non-linear, going in any direction
                        -   Anything, anyplace, anytime
               • Born with OD, iPads, timeshifting


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                            37
OD Generation...




vrijdag 21 oktober 11              38
OD Generation...




vrijdag 21 oktober 11              39
OD Generation...




vrijdag 21 oktober 11              40
OD Generation...




vrijdag 21 oktober 11              41
School       Work    Media


                        Boom   Present Kid?    1     Consume


                         X      Good Kid?      5     Challenge


                         Y     Smart Kid?      10    Interact


                        OD     Happy Kid?      ?      “In it”



vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                            42
Things to take away ...
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                             43
Want to be ready?




                                                        Change your view on
                                                        advertising
   Start using
   social networks                       Get a decent
                        Get on Twitter
                                         smartphone




                                         Get a tablet
vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                         44
Things to take away
                        Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is

                          Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution

                               The future of the internet and social will be mobile

                                     The future of mobile will be everything

                                 You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this

                        Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously)

                                 Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-)

                                       Observe the youngest generations

vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                                         45
Beware of Macro-Myopia*
                         *the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term
                            and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term.

                                              Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-)




vrijdag 21 oktober 11                                                                        46
Fixing The Media

                        jo@dearmedia.be


vrijdag 21 oktober 11                      47

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Fixing the media short boom xy

  • 1. Fixing The Media jo@dearmedia.be vrijdag 21 oktober 11 1
  • 2. a digital consulting company, working for European clients • founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron • our mission is to help find a new balance between the certainties of your traditional business and the opportunities of innovations in (digital) media • our scope is everything in the digital space, with focus on social, mobile, tablets, location, connected TV, new radio, ... • We work for large European clients vrijdag 21 oktober 11 2
  • 3. Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be) • Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...) • Media thinker, innovator & strategist • Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected TV • Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer • Vice-President IAB Belgium • Contact • jo@dearmedia.be Jo • http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff) Caudron • http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff) • www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed) vrijdag 21 oktober 11 3
  • 4. Available from October 2011 Already in pre-order on www.MediaMorgen.com vrijdag 21 oktober 11 4
  • 6. To get this started... • Who is using? • Who is using? - Twitter - an iPhone - Facebook, Netlog, ... - an Android - LinkedIn, Plaxo - a Blackberry - Email - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony - LBS Ericsson, ... - Augmented Reality - a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2, Android, ...) vrijdag 21 oktober 11 6
  • 7. Don’t believe anything you will hear in the following presentation! vrijdag 21 oktober 11 7
  • 8. A short history of everything Analogue Digital Connected (internet) Social Everything is getting mobile vrijdag 21 oktober 11 8
  • 9. The Perfect Storm Authority Shifting Shift of Content Explosion Place Shifting Control Time Shifting vrijdag 21 oktober 11 9
  • 10. What are social media? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 10
  • 11. Radio vrijdag 21 oktober 11 TV Print Billboards From ... DM Social Media Marketing & Communication Sales The sky is the limit... Service & Support HR ... to IT Social Business PR & External Commun. R&D & Enterprise 2.0 11
  • 14. 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000 vrijdag 21 oktober 11 14
  • 15. 1.300.000.000 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000 vrijdag 21 oktober 11 15
  • 16. 5.000.000.000 1.300.000.000 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000 vrijdag 21 oktober 11 16
  • 17. The Future is ‘Mobile’ vrijdag 21 oktober 11 17
  • 18. Mobile is the Biggest! nes. obile p ho n m ld o ver 5 billio re so illio n we n e! 1 b r alo las t yea the vrijdag 21 oktober 11 18
  • 20. 300 225 In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, where iPads ... (source: IDC). 150 By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold. 75 Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next coming years. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 vrijdag 21 oktober 11 20
  • 21. So, Traditional Media are Dead? No, but... vrijdag 21 oktober 11 21
  • 22. What about newspapers? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 22
  • 23. What about newspapers? • Print newspapers are no longer to best “format” to bring the “latest” news • The daily frequency can not compete to online newspapers • They have cannibalized on their own business: free newssites • Classifieds are lost completely • Advertisers believe in online and new advertising formats and are slowly towards online • Yet traditional online advertising does not work as hoped for, is worth less, thus is not compensating for offline loss • Readers are less loyal (subscriptions) and become weekend-consumers vrijdag 21 oktober 11 23
  • 25. Will new technology help? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 25
  • 26. The future of Magazines? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 26
  • 27. And what about the music industry? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 27
  • 28. It’s not going well... vrijdag 21 oktober 11 28
  • 29. It’s not going well... “Jo, read and feel the horror” (someone at a very big record label) Bob Lefsetz talking on Lady GaGa and the 0,99 sales on Amazon... “You can't argue about the price. "Born This Way" was available at Amazon for 99 cents. And then, just in case you didn't catch it the first time around, they repeated the promotion a couple of days later. Only 400,000 odd people took Amazon up on this offer.   Meaning for many, they just don't want to hear GaGa AT ANY PRICE!” vrijdag 21 oktober 11 29
  • 30. What might impact TV? Timeshifting! How big is time shifted viewing today? • 2,5% (VRT) • 20% (VTM telenovelas)- 30% • 10% (RTL) It IS growing. How much loss of advertising can commercial TV digest? vrijdag 21 oktober 11 30
  • 31. What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution! vrijdag 21 oktober 11 31
  • 33. What might impact TV? The People! They don’t watch less TV. But they are changing the very nature of the DNA of (commercial) TV. They might even pay for TV, but maybe not to you. They might stay loyal to TV-brands, (near) linear TV, ... but if they run away from your advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have an issue. vrijdag 21 oktober 11 33
  • 34. What might impact TV? The People! Transcript - Shat are you doing? - I am watching... - Why do you rather watch on the iPad instead of on TV? - Because I can choose on this and because there is more - And can’t you choose on TV? - Yes, but it’s not on the iPad - And you prefer it on the iPad? Don’t believe me? Watch this... - Yes... vrijdag 21 oktober 11 34
  • 35. Gen X • Challenge traditional media • Looking for qualitative, intelligent, traditional knowledge and media • The architects and users of these traditional media • Digital immigrants • Stuck in the old models, and yet: also the drivers of the first digital and online revolutions (Jobs, Andreessen, ...) vrijdag 21 oktober 11 35
  • 36. Gen Y • Interact with media • Going for “fast and happiness”, but still going forward • Finding and exploring stuff • Born with newspapers, linear TV, ... • Masters of the traditional internet (click, browse, ...) • Discover the new media channels as they grow up vrijdag 21 oktober 11 36
  • 37. OD Generation... • Born in 2005 (so, a bit later than Generation Z) • Are “in the media”: both consumers and creators - On Demand - Over Dose - Non-linear, going in any direction - Anything, anyplace, anytime • Born with OD, iPads, timeshifting vrijdag 21 oktober 11 37
  • 42. School Work Media Boom Present Kid? 1 Consume X Good Kid? 5 Challenge Y Smart Kid? 10 Interact OD Happy Kid? ? “In it” vrijdag 21 oktober 11 42
  • 43. Things to take away ... vrijdag 21 oktober 11 43
  • 44. Want to be ready? Change your view on advertising Start using social networks Get a decent Get on Twitter smartphone Get a tablet vrijdag 21 oktober 11 44
  • 45. Things to take away Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution The future of the internet and social will be mobile The future of mobile will be everything You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously) Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-) Observe the youngest generations vrijdag 21 oktober 11 45
  • 46. Beware of Macro-Myopia* *the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term. Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-) vrijdag 21 oktober 11 46
  • 47. Fixing The Media jo@dearmedia.be vrijdag 21 oktober 11 47