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Visioning the future
- 1. Finding a future between dystopia and hype Andreas Bergh & Joakim Wernberg
- 2. The threatening megatrends • Urbanization Crowded cities – declining countryside • Technology: The robots are stealing our jobs • Globalization: Other people are stealing our jobs too - and also destroying our economy
- 3. The mistake: Linear extrapolations Source: https://xkcd.com/605/
- 4. The reality: Trends are rarely linear Some will accelerate Others will reverse Deal with it. Source: https://xkcd.com/605/
- 5. Urbanization
- 6. Urbanization • 1990s: Hopes that ICT would revive the countryside • But ICT makes living in a city so much more fun! • Substitutes were complements • The future: A complement to the hectic city life may well be…
- 7. The robots are stealing our jobs!
- 8. AUTOMATIZATION • Sure – what else is new? • Jobs are not destroyed, but the nature of job tasks is changing It is not about low-skill or high-skill, It is about routine vs non-routine tasks • Share of life spent working has been decreasing • But why do we add leisure time at the end of our lives? • Who owns the robots?
- 9. Other people are stealing our jobs Capitalists Foreign labour Immigrants
- 10. • Sure – what else is new? • People who can do some tasks cheaper and/or better are in some ways similar to robots • Small firms – big firms, mergers and out- sourcing, de-industrialization… and then? • Time for beer! • Late 19th century: 500 different breweries • Early 1990s: 20 breweries • Today: 250. • China: From the world’s cheap factory to the world’s investor Globalization
- 11. The future
- 12. One scenario • Manufacturing jobs return to the country side • Urbanization slows down • People distribute leisure time (more) evenly over the lifecycle
- 13. • Don’t predict just one scenario – predict several • Optimize learning – love disagreement • Don’t wait for the future • The future is just a sequence of tomorrows: You can predict it only if you can invent it. But remember:
- 14. Thank you! Andreas Bergh, Associate professor, economics, Lund university & IFN Joakim Wernberg, Research director, Megatrends at the Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum joakim.wernberg@entreprenorskapsforum.se
Notas do Editor
- The promise: Broadband: live in rural areas, work in the city – without travling there Basic income! Freedom! The world is flat! Poverty is falling.
- Thirty of the breweries account for 96 percent of the beverage production (beer, cider, bottled water and soft drinks)