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Economic Outlook Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA  Wilmington, NC June 19, 2008 Douglas McWilliam Vice President- Secondary Marketing Relationship Manager Wachovia Corporate & Investment Bank
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
National Economic Overview
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],U.S. Economic  Overview Highlights Surging Energy Prices And The Still Unfolding Housing Slump Have Pushed The Economy Over The Edge Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview
U.S. Economic  Overview Surging Energy Prices And The Still Unfolding Housing Slump Have Pushed The Economy Over The Edge National Economic Overview Wachovia U.S. Economic Forecast Depending on oils ripple effect  Depending on the dollar
Consumer Overview Consumers Are Getting Squeezed On Many Fronts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Negative Discretionary Consumer Spending Positive Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview
[object Object],[object Object],U.S. Economic Overview Highlights The Economy Feels Weaker Than the GDP Data Indicate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview
U.S. Economic Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],Highlights The Economy Feels Weaker Than the GDP Data Indicate
[object Object],[object Object],Credit Spreads & The Yield Curve Highlights We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet Source: Bloomberg LP,  Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Global Growth & The Dollar Wachovia Major Currency Forecast Highlights Global Growth Remains Steady But The Dollar Is Poised For a Turnaround in the Second Half Source: Bloomberg LP,  Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview
Timeline of a Financial Crisis A Crisis Timeline: Eight Months of Fed Maneuvering Source:  American Banker  and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview The Fed will continue to innovate until financial markets stabilize
Results of the current credit crisis MBS to Treasury Price Spreads
Residential Real Estate Summary
Homebuilders ,[object Object],[object Object],Overall Starts Remain Volatile But on a Downward Trend
Homebuilders Permits in the worst housing markets are rapidly approaching or are already essentially at near zero levels. Some states have seen permits decline more than 80 percent from their peak levels.  Permits did bounce higher in April for the first time since last Spring.  Like starts, we think that the declines are mostly behind us, but would not rule out a few more small declines this summer.  Much more of today’s decline in single-family permits is due to deteriorating credit conditions than to oversupply.  The builder inventory of unsold homes has fallen considerably, even in massively overbuilt markets like Florida, California, and Arizona   Permits Are Rapidly Approaching Zero in Many Markets
Homebuilders
Homebuilders ,[object Object],Highlights
Homebuilders ,[object Object],Existing Home Sales
Homebuilders
Homebuilders ,[object Object],The overall mortgage delinquency rate increased 53 basis points to 6.35 percent in the first quarter.  The delinquency rate on prime loans rose 47 basis points to 3.71percent, while the delinquency rate on subprime mortgages surged 148 basis points to 18.8 percent.  Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California are once again at the top of the list in terms of gains in the delinquency rates, along with Louisiana and Mississippi.  Credit quality is deteriorating rapidly on both prime and subprime mortgages, but the biggest problem, by far, is subprime adjustable rate mortgages.  Credit quality is a lagging indicator and will not likely meaningfully improve for at least another year.
Homebuilders
Homebuilders ,[object Object],[object Object]
Homebuilders Mortgage Applications Applications Slide Anew Applications for purchase have renewed their downward trend amid tighter credit standards.  Declining home values have also kept many potential buyers on the sidelines and significantly cut into demand for second homes.  Demand for adjustable rate mortgages has cooled considerably, despite a steeper yield curve, as reports about homeowners struggling with some ARM products circulate.  Consumers are now opting for more traditional products.  Applications for mortgage refinancing have fallen even more significantly, reflecting higher mortgage rates and tighter underwriting. Highlights
Homebuilders Figure 2 Figure 3 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Wachovia Corp.
Homebuilders 6.75 as of 06/16/08
Homebuilders
OFHEO OFHEO Home Price Index Home Prices Are Now Falling in the Majority of American Cities Source: OFHEO and Wachovia Corp. Wachovia
Investor & Second-Home Mortgages Non-Owner Occupied Purchase Loans: 2006 Investors Were Responsible For More than Half of the Purchases in Some Markets in 2006 Source: HMDA and Wachovia Corp. Residential Real Estate Summary
North Carolina
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],North Carolina Highlights Employment & Income Growth Remain Solid Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia Corp. North Carolina
North Carolina Highlights ,[object Object],Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia Corp.
Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA  Wilmington, NC Our Economics Team
Wachovia Economics Group I would like to thank our Wachovia Economics Group Commentary  http:// www.wachovia.com/economicsemail [email_address] (704) 374-4407 Economic Analyst Tim Quinlan [email_address] (704) 715-9660 Economic Analyst Adam G. York [email_address] (704) 383-6805 Econometrician Azhar Iqbal [email_address] (704) 715-0575 Economist Anika Khan [email_address] (704) 383-7372 Economist Sam Bullard [email_address] (704) 383-3518 Global Economist Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. [email_address] (704) 383-5635 Senior Economist Mark Vitner [email_address] (704) 374-7034 Chief Economist John E. Silvia, Ph.D.
Event Sponsored by: Lisa Mesler Peter Newman Blair Young 1017 Ashes Drive Suite # 106 Wilmington, NC 28405 Phone: 910.509.2848 Toll Free: 800.272.3439  Thank you! Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA

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Residential Builder Seminar Presentation

  • 1. Economic Outlook Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA Wilmington, NC June 19, 2008 Douglas McWilliam Vice President- Secondary Marketing Relationship Manager Wachovia Corporate & Investment Bank
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  • 5. U.S. Economic Overview Surging Energy Prices And The Still Unfolding Housing Slump Have Pushed The Economy Over The Edge National Economic Overview Wachovia U.S. Economic Forecast Depending on oils ripple effect Depending on the dollar
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  • 11. Timeline of a Financial Crisis A Crisis Timeline: Eight Months of Fed Maneuvering Source: American Banker and Wachovia Corp. National Economic Overview The Fed will continue to innovate until financial markets stabilize
  • 12. Results of the current credit crisis MBS to Treasury Price Spreads
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  • 15. Homebuilders Permits in the worst housing markets are rapidly approaching or are already essentially at near zero levels. Some states have seen permits decline more than 80 percent from their peak levels. Permits did bounce higher in April for the first time since last Spring. Like starts, we think that the declines are mostly behind us, but would not rule out a few more small declines this summer. Much more of today’s decline in single-family permits is due to deteriorating credit conditions than to oversupply. The builder inventory of unsold homes has fallen considerably, even in massively overbuilt markets like Florida, California, and Arizona Permits Are Rapidly Approaching Zero in Many Markets
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  • 23. Homebuilders Mortgage Applications Applications Slide Anew Applications for purchase have renewed their downward trend amid tighter credit standards. Declining home values have also kept many potential buyers on the sidelines and significantly cut into demand for second homes. Demand for adjustable rate mortgages has cooled considerably, despite a steeper yield curve, as reports about homeowners struggling with some ARM products circulate. Consumers are now opting for more traditional products. Applications for mortgage refinancing have fallen even more significantly, reflecting higher mortgage rates and tighter underwriting. Highlights
  • 24. Homebuilders Figure 2 Figure 3 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Wachovia Corp.
  • 25. Homebuilders 6.75 as of 06/16/08
  • 27. OFHEO OFHEO Home Price Index Home Prices Are Now Falling in the Majority of American Cities Source: OFHEO and Wachovia Corp. Wachovia
  • 28. Investor & Second-Home Mortgages Non-Owner Occupied Purchase Loans: 2006 Investors Were Responsible For More than Half of the Purchases in Some Markets in 2006 Source: HMDA and Wachovia Corp. Residential Real Estate Summary
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  • 32. Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA Wilmington, NC Our Economics Team
  • 33. Wachovia Economics Group I would like to thank our Wachovia Economics Group Commentary http:// www.wachovia.com/economicsemail [email_address] (704) 374-4407 Economic Analyst Tim Quinlan [email_address] (704) 715-9660 Economic Analyst Adam G. York [email_address] (704) 383-6805 Econometrician Azhar Iqbal [email_address] (704) 715-0575 Economist Anika Khan [email_address] (704) 383-7372 Economist Sam Bullard [email_address] (704) 383-3518 Global Economist Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. [email_address] (704) 383-5635 Senior Economist Mark Vitner [email_address] (704) 374-7034 Chief Economist John E. Silvia, Ph.D.
  • 34. Event Sponsored by: Lisa Mesler Peter Newman Blair Young 1017 Ashes Drive Suite # 106 Wilmington, NC 28405 Phone: 910.509.2848 Toll Free: 800.272.3439 Thank you! Wilmington-Cape Fear HBA