This was a news report written in May-June 2009 about the possible regime change in North Korea with the rise of Kim Jong Eun as the possible successor of Kim Jong Il.

1. North Korea’s Second Nuclear Crisis
By Dewi Barnas (18 June 2009)
On May 25th, coincided with United States’ Memorial Day, North Korea once again executed a nuclear test and created tension in the
region. Seoul's National Intelligence Service said Tuesday that the second test by the North was believed to have an explosive force
four to eight times stronger than that of the first test.[1] However, even a few weeks after the test was conducted, there was no
radioactive material found in the air samples in the vicinity.
Nevertheless, the alleged nuclear test did create an anxiety in the region. President Lee Myung Bak of South Korea immediately
discussed the situation with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and the leaders of other allies in the afternoon of t he launching.[2] On
a brief phone conversation, President Lee and President Barack Obama of the United States (U.S.) also agreed to seek a stern, unified
reaction to North Korea’s action.[3] The next day, South Korea immediately indicated to join the U.S. in its anti-proliferation
campaign and the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which they have been avoiding for years since the previous Roh Moo -Hyun
administration. This was promptly responded by North Korea with a threat of taking the move as a de facto declaration of war.[4]
A third nuclear test was suspected to be conducted on June 16 th, the exact same day as a meeting was scheduled between President Lee
and President Obama in Washington. Despite their vile threat, there was no nuclear activity recorded in North Korea on the day. The
meeting went smoothly between Lee and Obama, and the discussion ranged from the nuclear crisis to the Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) between the two countries that is still under discussion.
A lot of controversies spin around as what was behind this recent nuclear test. Some say that the nuclear test was aimed at distracting
international attention from North Korea’s ailing economy and providing a stage for Kim Jong Il’s youngest son’s to resume the
throne.[5] While others say that it was aimed at getting U.S.’ attention back, since North Korea has felt quite neglected by Obama’s
administration, as well as displaying their progress in nuclear capability.[6]

2. Overview of North Korea Provocations Over the Years
Pyongyang’s first nuclear crisis took place in 1998, with the launching of Taepodong rocket that flies over Japan and landed in the
Pacific Ocean. Within the decade since then, there have been many more incidents provoked by North Korea, while also there hav e
been some remarkable achievements reached through bilateral and multilateral negotiations with the rogue state. The following table
will briefly show the fluctuation of North Korean nuclear crisis, since Kim Jong Il first took the throne from his father, vi ewed from
the different regimes that he dealt with in South Korea.
Kim Dae Jung Roh Moo Hyun Lee Myung Bak
(1998-2001) (2002-2007) (2008-present)
 Taepodong launch.  North and South Korean naval  Expelled South Korean
 South Korea captured North vessels waged a gun battle in the managers from joint
Korean mini submarines in its Yellow Sea; some 30 North industrial base in Kaesong.
waters; 9 crews inside were Koreans and 4 South Korean  North Korean soldiers shot a
found dead. sailors were killed. South Korean tourist in Mount
 Reactivated Yongbyon nuclear Kumkang special tourism area
reactor and kicked out IAEA of North Korea, in June 2008.
inspectors on December 2006.  Launched a three-stage
Assaults and  Withdrawal from Nuclear Non- rocket capable of carrying a
Offenses Proliferation Treaty (NPT). warhead that could reach part
 Striked 7 missiles, including one of the US, in April 2009.
long-range Taepodong 2 and  Conducted second nuclear
several medium-range rockets on test on May 25th, 2009.
American Independence Day (4th  Fired a total of 5 missiles
of July) in 2006. in the 2 days that followed.
 Conducted first nuclear test  Prepared to launch an
on October 26th, 2006. ICBM (Inter-Continental
Ballistic Missile).

3.  Ultimatum that any move
taken by the U.S. or South
Korea is a de facto
declaration of war.
 Reconciliation and Cooperation  Peace and Prosperity Policy  Mutual benefit and Co-
 “Sunshine Policy” to engage  Passengers train crossed the Prosperity policy
North Korea through cross- North-South border for the first
border business projects. time in 56 years.
 Inter-Korean Summit in  The second Inter-Korea Summit
South Korea’s Pyongyang on June 2000. was held in Pyongyang on  Called a review of North
Approach October 2007. Korean policy.
and/or The summit was followed with  Roh symbolically crossed the
Achievements cabinet-level meetings between yellow line that officially
South and North Korean officials, separated the two countries,
three family reunions, and a host of watched by millions of viewers
 Criticism toward North Korea’s
working-level meetings on a variety on national and international
human rights record.
issues. televisions.
1. Preventing a war on Korean 1. Promoting peace on the Korean 1. Further enhancement of inter-
peninsula Peninsula Korean relationship along with
2. Easing military tensions and 2. Pursuing co-prosperity changes in North Korea
establishing peace o Realizing co-prosperity of 2. Realizing an advanced Korean
Policy Goals of 3. Substantiality improving the both Korea peninsula through peace and
South Korea[7] inter-Korean relationship o Pursuing co-prosperity of economic community
4. Inducing changes in North Korea the Northeast Asia 3. Laying the foundation for
5. Achieving a peaceful and gradual peaceful unification through
unification which people on both Koreas
can live happily
 Kim successfully ensured  Roh was often confrontational  Agreed to join PSI with US
Clinton’s administration that toward the US. and Japan, which was
North Korea will cooperate.  Rejected US’ Proliferation rejected by the previous
South Korea –  Not in-line with Bush’ Security Initiative (PSI) administration.
US Alliance administration policy.  Agreed to the relocate one third  Lining policies with the US
of the US Forces in Korea (USFK) and allies.
 Reduce financial share to USFK in
2004.

4.  More of a partnership than a
patron-client relationship
 Conducted talks to regain
wartime operational control from
the US.
-  Agreed to denuclearization in  Withdrawal from Six-Party
exchange to emergency energy Talks in April 2009.
assistance.
North Korean  IAEA was allowed access to
Reciprocity in verify the shutdown of Yongbyon
Six-Party reactor.
Talks  Agreed to shut down nuclear
facilities, deadlocked on the talk
to disablement and
dismantlement of the facilities.
International Response
North Korea’s second nuclear test came as a shock in South Korea, which is still mourning over the lost of their previous president
Roh Moo-Hyun. However, North Korean government claimed that the test was already scheduled before the incident happened and
had nothing to do with Roh’s death. The timing could not be any worse for South Korea, which was also hosting the ASEAN-Korea
Commemorative Summit and thus had all heads of governments from ten Southeast Asian nations invited to the country just a few
days after the test.
President Lee quickly called for joining the U.S.-led PSI strategy, and even regretted Obama’s approach which was rather “soft”
toward the rogue nation in the early days of his administration. South Korea plans to sell steel products which were supposed to be
delivered to North Korea in return for denuclearization, as a sanction for the nuclear test they conducted.[8] Further, in a meeting
between South Korea’s Defense Minister Yu Myung Hwan and US’ Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on June 5 th, the two parties

5. agreed to take joint action and on the need of “extended deterrence” to protect South Korea under the US nuclear umbrella and
conventional military posture in times of emergency.
President Lee also met with President Obama in Washington on June 16th, to further discuss about US security umbrella in South
Korea. The summit, however, only resulted in limited response on North Korea’s offense. The two leaders agreed that South Kor ea
will play a larger role in fighting global challenges, either security or economic challenges; the U.S. in return will stand firm to
provide South Korea with security deterrence capabilities as well as its nuclear umbrella. The two presidents also signed a d ocument
titled the Joint Vision for the Alliance of the USA and the ROK, which is basically a reassurance on the alliance’ commitments on
common goals and strategic operations on every level.[9]
Meanwhile, the rest of Six-Party Talks member countries, particularly Japan, also condemned North Korea’s belligerent act.
Currently, Tokyo prohibits port entry to North Korean ships and exports of luxury items and material related to weapons of ma ss
destruction.[10] Aso also reached out to South Korean President Lee Myung Bak, who confirmed the importance of tripartite
cooperation with the U.S.[11] Concurrently, Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone also tried to secure China’s support for a
new Security Council Resolution.[12] Japan and South Korea also joined in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) discussion to
draft a resolution sanctioning North Korea for its latest act, which took approximately 2 weeks to reach agreement.
After the first nuclear test which was conducted in 2006, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted Resolution 1718,
which called for partial arms embargo, ban on luxury goods, and ship searches for illegal weapons or materials toward North
Korea.[13] However, the recent negotiation to draft another resolution did not proceed smoothly; as China and Russia were undecided
on the level of severity they would consent to apply sanction on North Korea. The full 15-member council finally adopted Resolution
1784 on June 12th, which reaffirmed the previous resolution to ban all weapons exports from North Korea and most arms imports into
the country. It also authorized U.N. member states to inspect cargo, requiring North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to
seize and destroy shipped goods that violate the sanctions.[14] On the financial side, the resolution forbids transactions and money
flows that could support Pyongyang's missile or nuclear program. It also prohibits all financial assistance other than for humanitarian
or development purposes.[15]

6. The resolution was immediately rebuffed by North Korea, claiming that the resolution was orchestrated by the U.S. and does not hold
any ground from the point of view of international law. Further, North Korea stated that they will response the resolution by
weaponizing the newly extracted plutonium, and any kind of blockade that the U.S. or “its followers” attempt at North Korea will be
regarded as an act of war and met with a decisive military response.[16]
Condemnations on North Korea’s latest move do not only come from the parties in Six Party Talks, but also from European Union ,
Australia, ASEAN, and even Iran. Leaders of ASEAN member states and President Lee Myung Bak took time to adopt a Join Press
Statement in the midst of their summit in Jeju do, South Korea, to denounce the nuclear test.[17]
US Policy on North Korea
The beginning of Obama’s administration in the U.S. brings a lot of hope for people in many countries. America’s maturity to elect a
president from a minority group was expected to also be the beginning of a whole new chapter in American global policy. In North
Korean nuclear issue, in particular, Obama has particularly shown a different intention of U.S’ foreign policy by calling for a renewal
of American diplomacy, by talking to both friends and foes.[18]
Despite Obama’s openness to have a dialogue with Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s request to let their nuclear negotiator, Kim Kye-Gwan
to attend Obama’s inauguration was plainly rejected by the administration.[19] This among others was translated by North Korea as a
sign of U.S’ consistency in carrying confrontational policy toward them, despite the rhetoric of Obama’s engagement policy.[20]

7. Nevertheless, Obama’s administration policy has been essentially “benevolent”, especially in comparison with Bush’ administration.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has made it clear that the U.S. was not considering military action against North Korea, but t he
preferable course was to inflict “real pain” on the regime with tough sanctions.[21] The U.S. has also made clear that they will not
tolerate North Korea’s aggressive attitude, by rewarding or fulfilling their demands following a military assault.[22]
The fact is, up until June now, Obama’s nominee for Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell,
was still not confirmed by the Senate; which leaves a key policymaking role for East Asia unfulfilled.[23] This is probably one of the
reasons why Obama’s administration was rather undecided on how to deal with the recent nuclear test.
Up to May 29th, State Department had still not elaborate on what kind of sanctions Washington was seeking, but diplomats in New
York said that the U.S.-drafted resolution circulated later in the day among the 15-member of UNSC members called for financial
sanctions, among others, on North Korea.[24] U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the administration of President Obama
and its allies were still open to dialogue but won’t bend to pressure or provocation.[25]
North Korea is also reported to have captured two American journalists earlier this year, near the North Korean border while on
reporting trip to China.[26] The two journalists were convicted with 12 years labor work in North Korean labor prison camp on
charges of illegal entry and “hostile acts”.[27] There is an increasing anxiousness that North Korea might use them as bargaining chips
in negotiations with the U.S.[28] This also adds to the factors to be considered in U.S. final call on how to deal with North Korean
regime.
Current Development

8. Following the nuclear test, North Korea launched six ground-to-ship and ground-to-air missiles two days in a row, making it difficult
for South Korea, the U.S, and Japanese airplanes to measure the radioactivity-level of the nuclear test conducted.[29] Japan's Defense
Ministry said it has sent several T-4 fighters on surveillance missions to monitor radiation levels, without any results. The firing of
anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles was said to deter U.S. and Japanese ships and aircraft from coming close to collect evidence of the
nuclear test, while at the same time threatening South Korea.[30] A quake expert and official at Japan Meteorological Agency said
that North Korea’s latest nuclear test was measured at magnitude -5.3, higher than the first nuclear test in 2006 which was at
magnitude -4.9.[31] However, a few days after the test was conducted, there was still no radioactive material found in the vicinity.
In the recent development, North Korea has also banned vessels from navigating in the mid and upper parts of the Yellow Sea for
nearly two months until the end of July.[32] Pyongyang has also warned to conduct military strikes against South Korean and U.S.
naval ships that are operating along the western sea border, where North and South Korean naval vessels waged a gun battle in 2002
which resulted casualties on both sides.
They are also reported to have had transported their most advanced long-range missile to a launch site on its western coasts. They
were also preparing to launch several medium-range missiles, possibly modified versions of the Rodong series, from a base in the east
coast of the country.[33] The latest missile which is believed to be capable of reaching the US was reported to be ready for launch in a
week or two.[34]
Meanwhile, South Korea – U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) has upgraded their surveillance level on North Korea, following
the latest nuclear test and the firing of six short-range missiles on May 25 th-26th.[35] The CFC, led by a four-star American army
general, raised its Watch Condition (WATCHCON) to level 2, which denotes vital indications of a security threat – WATCHCON for
normal peace time is level 4.[36] South Korean navy has also deployed a brand-new patrol boat armed with state-of-the-art ship-to-
ship guided missiles to waters on the western coast yesterday, to anticipate for any possible development in North Korea.[37]
Meanwhile, the air force will also carry out a training exercise with its high-tech F-15K fleet, which is capable of air-to-ground, air-to-
air, and air-to-sea missions day and night, in any weather conditions.[38]

9. It is rather difficult to predict what might come out next in North Korea’s nuclear strategy, since the international community seems to
be running out of time to continue whatever it is that has been reached so far with Kim Jong Il. Intelligence source has reported that
short after the nuclear test, a memo was circulated to North Korean embassies overseas notifying that Kim Jong Il’s third son, 26
years-old Kim Jong-Un, will continue his father’s footstep as the leader of the communist state.[39] Some sources said that the memo
was part of the official succession, which is not yet complete; and other sources said that North Korea Workers Party members,
military personnel, and diplomats have taken an oath of allegiance to Kim, Jr.[40]
Currently, South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities have begun surveillance on 11 North Korean sites on possible third nuclear
test, as an act of response to UNSC sanctions.[41] Washington had sent a fact-finding team to Geumchang-ri in exchange for
providing 600,000 tons of rice to North Korea, but failed to find any proof of nuclear activities there.
Regime Change
Kim Jong-Un, who is issued to carry on North Korea’s leadership torch, is the youngest son of Kim Jong Il. North Korea’s next leader
is reported to have attended the International School of Bern in Switzerland in the late 1990’s, under the pseudonym of Chol Pak. A
former classmate described him as a shy student who loved basketball and Jean-Claude Van Damme.[42] A Swiss news magazine,
L'Hebdo, reported earlier this year that classmates recalled him as timid and introvert but an avid skier, basketball player and fan of
NBA star Michael Jordan.[43] He was humble and willing to step in to break up schoolyard fights, a former school director told the
magazine.[44] Susanna Schranz, a spokeswoman for the private school, however, refused to comment, noting that for some parents,
"discretion is really important."[45] After returning to Pyongyang, he attended the Kim Il Sung Military University, and graduated in
2007.[46]
Little is known about Kim Jong-Un, who has made only few public appearances since his Switzerland days. Pictures of the young boy
from his days in Switzerland is no longer verifiable as he had ballooned to nearly 200 pounds as he had developed a drinking habit
following the lost of his mother – Kim Jong Il’s third wife – in 2004.[47]

10. In Pyongyang schools, the authorities seem to have started to arouse an atmosphere of succession. According t o a Japanese source,
children in North Korean elementary schools have started learning a new song, “The Song of General Kim Jong Woon.”[48] The same
information was reported by South Korean Dong-A Ilbo later in the week. The source reported that children were not allowed to go
home before they memorized the song. The schools also taught the children that Kim Jong-Un is 34 to 36 years old, ten years older
than his actual age.[49] Officials of the Party also inflate his career, by even saying that he graduated from seven universities.[50]
However, there is skepticism rousing among analysts, because there has not been official nominating process in Pyongyang, nor any
official announcement concerning Kim Jong-Un’s succession.[51] Instead of Kim Jong-Un, there is likeliness that Kim Jong Il’s
brother in-law, Chang Sung-Taek, will play an even more crucial rule as Kim Jong-Un’s regent.[52] Washington Post reported that
since last summer, when Kim Jong Il was said to have suffered a stroke, Chang had been consistently mentioned in propaganda a nd
has been named frequently in connection with Kim Jong Il.[53] Chang was also recently elected to the National Defense Committee,
which aroused even more suspicion to the international community.
Kim Jong Il was originally believed to want to name a successor by 2012 – the centenary of the birth of his father, Kim Il Sung.[54]
However, his health conditions, among other things, seem to have stepped up the pace, marked by the launching of “150-day battle” to
urge North Koreans to work harder to build the country’s economy. In 1970’s, Kim Il Su ng also arranged for his son to take credit for
a “70-day battle” before he was affirmatively announced as the Great Leader’s successor.
“150-day battle” is a propaganda that has progressed from May 10 th, the foundation day of the Worker’s Party, to October 10th this
year.[55] The fundamental aims of this movement are construction of houses, normalization of farming and railroads, and enhancing
the activities of local factories and mines.[56] One source said that the backdrop of the battle is to prepare an economic breakthrough
to achieve the completion of the strong and prosperous state by 2012.[57] The workers Party is reported to have handed a secret letter
containing a detailed tasks to complete a strong and prosperous socialist state by 2012.[58] The precise production goals for the strong
and prosperous state announced in the letter were to generate 7.76 million kilowatts of electricity a year, pr oduce 33 million tons of

11. metal, 13 million metric tons of coal and 7 million metric tons of food, move 72 million metric tons of freight and, additionally,
modernize the economy and technology-intensive industries.[59]
North-South Relation
Former South Korean President Kim Dae Jung had just returned from his trip to Beijing and Washington when North Korea launched
the second nuclear test. The former president analyzed that Kim Jong Il’s move was fueled by his disappointment to Obama’s
administration, who did not give him the attention he deserves.[60] He complained that while Obama focuses on Afghanistan,
Pakistan, the Middle East, Iran, Russia, and “even Cuba,” he has not even appointed his full time experts on North Korea yet.[61] The
former president further analyzed that Kim Jong Il is in a great hurry, despite his recently reported recovery from stroke, t o secure a
successor. And to do so, he needs the Western superpower’s recognition.[62]
However, Kim Dae Jung is not voicing the popular opinion in South Korea. Soon after the nuclear test was known by public,
protesters gathered in South Korea and burn North Korean flag and portraits of Kim Jong Il. Conservative protesters even rallied with
a mock North Korean missile during an anti-North Korean rally in Seoul on June 2 nd.[63] Some protesters also hold pictures of Kim
Jong Il and his assumed successor, Kim Jong-Un, in the demonstration. This view is also shared by a lot of security experts, who
mostly believe that North Korea is merely using the nuclear program as some kind of trump card to extort guarantees of the re gime’s
survival and financial assistance from the US – as it usually does.[64]
Another issue that remains unsettled in North-South relation is the continuation of the joint industrial complex of Kaesong, which is
located in North Korea. North Korea has suggested a four times raise for North Korean worker’s in the industrial area, and 500 million
dollars rent for the use of approximately 3.3 million square meters of land.[65] Aside from that, North Korea is also still holding one
South Korean worker who was working on the complex for more than 70 days now.

12. End-Notes
[1] Korea Times, 26 May 2009.
[2] Korea Times, 25 May 2009.
[3] Korea Times, 26 May 2009.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Reuters, 26 May 2009.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Park Hyung Jung, “Seeking Sustainable North Korea Policy 1: Centering around the Former Government’s Policies for the Last Ten Years”, presented in
2009 South-South Dialogue: Seeking Sustainable North Korea Policy Through South-South Cooperation, 14 May 2009.
[8] Korea Times, 31 May 2009.
[9] Korea Herald, 16 June 2009.
[10] Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 27 May 2009.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Korea Herald, 1 June 2009.
[14] Korea Herald, 15 June 2009.
[15] Arab Herald, 13 June 2009.
[16] Reuters, 13 June 2009.
[17] Korea IT Times, 2 June 2009.
[18] Council on Foreign Relations, 21 January 2008.
[19] Newsweek, 29 January 2009
[20] New York Times, 8 may 2009.
[21] The Telegraph, 20 May 2009.
[22] Korea Times, 17 June 2009.
[23] Washington Times, 26 May 2009.
[24] Korea Times, 29 May 2009.
[25] Korea Times, 31 May 2009.
[26] Korea Times, 4 June 2009.
[27] Ibid.
[28] Ibid.
[29] Associated Press, 2 June 2009.
[30] Ibid.
[31] Ibid.

13. [32] Korea Times, 1 June 2009.
[33] Ibid.
[34] Associated Press, 3 June 2009.
[35] Korea Times, 28 may 2009.
[36] Ibid.
[37] Korea Times, 2 June 2009.
[38] Ibid.
[39] Ibid.
[40] Ibid.
[41] Korea Herald, 16 June 2009.
[42] Associated Press, 2 June 2009.
[43] Ibid.
[44] Ibid.
[45] Ibid.
[46] Ibid.
[47] Ibid.
[48] Daily NK, 21 May 2009.
[49] Ibid.
[50] Ibid.
[51] Washington Post, 3 June 2009.
[52] Ibid.
[53] Ibid.
[54] Associated Press, 2 June 2009.
[55] Daily NK, 6 May 2009.
[56] Ibid.
[57] Ibid.
[58] Ibid.
[59] Ibid.
[60] Spiegel Online International, 1 June 2009.
[61] Ibid.
[62] Ibid.
[63] Reuters, 2 June 2009.
[64] Spiegel Online International, 1 June 2009.

14. [65] Korea Times, 17 June 2009.