Riding Today’s Wave of Fast Change | CIOOnline Future of Cloud Summit by Dion Hinchcliffe.pdf

© 2010-2022 Constellation Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
@ConstellationR
RIDING TODAY’S WAVE OF
FAST CHANGE
1
How to use the Cloud and Fast Innovation to Sustainably Adapt and Evolve
DION HINCHCLIFFE (@DHINCHCLIFFE)
VP & PRINCIPAL ANALYST
CONSTELLATION RESEARCH
ZDNet
Executive Fellow, Tuck School of Business
dion@constellationr.com

© 2010-2022 Constellation Research, Inc. All rights reserved. #cloud @dhinchcliffe 2
Emerging Technology Rate of Change At All Time High
Growth of Technology and Human Success: Hand in Hand
1 2
Technology Growing and Change Fastest in History Which Overall Has Been Very Good for Us

© 2010-2022 Constellation Research, Inc. All rights reserved. #cloud @dhinchcliffe
Today’s Tech
Disruptions Are
Happening the Fastest
Ever:
Remote work via the
cloud suddenly become
the single fastest
technology adoption
story in the history of
the tech industry
3
Remote Work

(cc) Creative Commons, 2010-2022. Constellation Research, Inc. Some rights reserved. #cloud @dhinchcliffe
Cloud Was the Pandemic Tool of Choice for CIOs
• Many have faced an unprecedented stress testing of
their preparedness and overall capabilities
• The portfolio of the CIO has been challenged to
immediately meet the needs of an organization that
has suddenly changed
• This decade has proven to be one of disruptive, fast,
and unexpected change
• The central question is now this:
• How can the CIO confidently and sustainably
lead in era of constant disruption?
• Key Takeaway: The cloud was the single most
valuable asset in rapidly responding successfully to
pandemic needs

With the Last Two Years Seeing Unprecedented Cloud Adoption

(cc) Creative Commons, 2010-2022. Constellation Research, Inc. Some rights reserved.
And an Overall Enterprise Cloud Adoption Journey Becoming Clear
More
Strategic
and
Transformative
Point
Digitization
Fundamental
Transformation
Note: Exact Adoption Order Will Vary
Traditional Data Center
SaaS and Private Cloud
Public, Hybrid IaaS, PaaS, Edge
Early Online
Phase
Cloud Adoption
Phase
Early Cloud
Maturity
Middle Cloud
Maturity
Point 
Cloud
Adoption

More
Strategic
and
Transformative
Point
Digitization
Fundamental
Transformation
Note: Exact Adoption Order Will Vary
Traditional Data Center
SaaS and Private Cloud
Public, Hybrid IaaS, PaaS, Edge
Multicloud and Crosscloud
Open APIs for
Core Business
Open APIs for
Digital Platform
Metaverses, Web3
Consumer Digital
Products and Services
Cloud Ecosystem
Development
Open Data Services
Early Online
Phase
Cloud Adoption
Phase
Early Cloud
Maturity
Middle Cloud
Maturity
Point 
Cloud
Adoption
And an Overall Enterprise Cloud Adoption Journey Becoming Clear

The Cloud Journey to 2030

The Cloud is the Pace-Setter
Now in Terms of Tech and
Business Change

1 2
Insight: The Value of Digital is Driven by
Power Laws That Pay Off Big Downstream
But Most Organizations Only Change
Linearly, or Logarithmically at Best
The Payoff of Power Laws  
(Like Moore’s Law) Over Time
Understanding Exponential Tech Change Helps Us Prepare
Enabling Us to Anticipate the Nearly Unlimited Value Potential

This Means Exponential Thinking and Methods Now Required
11

Key Lesson:
You Can’t Fight an Exponential
Challenge with Linear Methods
12

Yet Some Organizations are Climbing the Digital Maturity Curve
13
But They Generally
Don’t Operate The
Traditional Way

#cloud @dhinchcliffe
Constellation Research (cc) 2022 | Some Rights Reserved
Evidence:
State of Digital Transformation
• Never ending.
• Mostly in the cloud.
• Hard.
• Slow progress.
• High failure rate.
• Medium rewards.
• Insufficient experimentation.
• Held up by lack of talent.
• Slow maturity (6-10 years).
In short, not good enough.
2022 Data on 1,500 organizations —>

Thus Organizations Now Need a New “Digital Metabolism”
That Can Change About as Fast as the World Does

We Need a Sustainable Approach to Rapid Change in Our Organizations
inefficient
efficient but
slow
effective but
hard to sustain
sustainable
Path to Sustainable
Development of
Digital and Org
Change
Sustainability is a Continual Improvement Method
Not Effective Toward Net
Zero Gap
In an Exponential and Disruptive Era in the Cloud

What a Healthy Digital Transformation Portfolio Looks Like
30%
Sure Things
50%
Experiments
20%
“Moonshots”
Yet Most Orgs
Are Doing This
More Like 50-80%
of the Time
A Little of
This
Almost None
of This
business outcome >

Decentralization of Everything is Arriving…
The Structure of IT Will Likely Have to Change Radically
• Decentralization is coming
• Open movements to broadly decentralize technology,
the Internet and business, making it more trusted and
private
• Everything in the IT stack, and beyond
• Including personal identity, data, media, services,
applications, transactions, and even finance and
money
• Crowdsourcing, cloud, blockchain and other
decentralized tech underpinning
• Fundamentally centered around local fit for purpose
• Flying under the IT and business radar
• Leading edge is Web3
Datacenters Public cloud
IT Procurement Self Service SaaS, App Stores
Cloud Edge
Pro Code Low/No Code
IT Support Crowd Support/AI Agents
Developers Citizen Developers
Central DT Distributed DT
One-Size-Fits-All IT Local Adaptation of IT
Internet/Web Web 2.0 and Web3
Databases Blockchain
Closed Source Open Source
• Massive economic (tens of billions of $ a day in
transactions) and wild tech innovation activity
• $2 trillion market right now

Example: Low Code… There Are 26x More Non-Developers
Already the Dominant Model for Application Development and DT

Key Insight: Moving from Push to Pull Based Models for Tech Change
Implication: Digital Transformation Must Be Decentralized and Broadly Empowered
20

Because Traditional Models of Tech Adoption Has a High Failure Rate
•77% of large IT/change initiatives fail…HBR
(1970s -> Now)
•Historically the adoption of emerging tech has
left a wake of failed efforts
- ERP, CRM, SOA, etc.
•Digital change programs that use traditional
adoption approaches usually do not work
- Most strategic change programs are program-driven and in
today’s faster world outdated before being fully implemented
- Traditional change programs are static, cascading one time
events
- Traditional adoption processes are technology-centric while
digital adoption requires a human centric lens
Our New Understanding
Post-Pandemic:
We must find different
ways of adopting tech
and driving change that
scales sustainably

Centralized Change Has Been Breaking Down for A While
22
Which advances
like the Center of
Excellence
Model was
Supposed to Fix

At the Largest Scale, Industry Has Learned that Network and
Community Driven Approaches Are Highly Effective
• There has been revolution in how loosely-coupled but
well aligned groups of people can drive change 
• Open Source
• Agile, and now Devops
• Open Innovation/Collaboration
• Digital Media (YouTube)
• Crowdfunding
• Web3
With a New Lens: Proof Points

incremental change
IT
IT as support unit,
enabling centrally,
“Doing it all”
Limited external
competition/enablement
service providers
outsourcing firms
faster change
IT as support unit,
CoEs driving innovation
More external
competition
service providers
outsourcing firms
app stores
IT
CoE CoE
cloud
fastest change
network of IT enablement,
broadly innovating decentrally
Most external
competition
service providers
outsourcing firms
app stores cloud
CoE = Center of Excellence | NoE = Network of Excellence | = Shadow IT
NoE
CoE
LoB
LoB
CoE
LoB
dev partners
dev
partners
APIs
Back to the CoE. What’s Next for IT and Cloud?
change
agents
cloud

platforms

So, a Few Years
Ago I Began to
Notice a New
Pattern on
Projects…
That Change
Teams were
Becoming
Change Networks

© 2010-2022 Constellation Research, Inc. All rights reserved. #cloud @dhinchcliffe 26
Digital
Workplace
Transformation Results
Decentralization
Changing Everything From One Place (IT) Was Never Going to Be Enough
So We’ve Found a Major Missing Piece to the Puzzle of Tech
Adoption and Innovation

The Key Insights of Decentralized Tech Adoption
• It’s always a people
problem. - Gerald Weinberg
• Productivity of Digital Teams
Varies from 1:10
• Existing Models that
Focused on Changing 100%
of Everything Centrally Were
Doomed to Underperform
What if we could plan a self-growing seed of change?
What if the most decentralized asset we have (cloud) is the
the best and most available/powerful resource?

We Have a
Growing New
Audience to Tap
into Pent Up
Desire for Progress
and Improvement:
Digital
Change
Agents

Because Unlike Other Types of IT, Digital Change is Seen As Optional
30
Change is NOT automatic. You must provide higher value. Nearly 10x higher.

Riding Fast Waves of Change
The Methods of IT Will Likely Have to Change Radically
• The cloud is the richest and most powerful resource IT has
today to adapt, innovate, and grow
• But traditional tech adoption will never take advantage of the
cloud anywhere near rapidly enough or at sufficient scale
• Emerging but proven methods for realizing fast change are
key, with decentralization being the leading and most
powerful approach
• Organizations willing to cede some direct centralized control
can create change up to 5-10x faster than they have today
• These organizations are far more likely to thrive as the mature
age continued to grow and become more complex
• The future of IT is about effective complexity management

Riding Today’s Wave of Fast Change | CIOOnline Future of Cloud Summit by Dion Hinchcliffe.pdf

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